Gregmal Posted July 1, 2022 Posted July 1, 2022 1 hour ago, Sinbius said: I don't understand why you look only at Buffett for insight on how to invest...there are way better investors out there and way more willing to teach something... And you know right that he looks at macro? Don't you? like when there was covid (I mean it is still here...I mean at the start)...he got totally paralyzed by fear...while others were greedy buying left and right... he looks and finds for metrics about macro....his GDP/market cap...Ted talk in latest podcast when they sit and talk about inflation and how it will end... Charli Munger too is also sometimes a macro guy...Alibaba is mainly a macro call...even my mum can see it is undervalued based on fundamentals...it is just about to judge the macro risks and tailwinds.... Bet on America is a long term secular call. Much different than guessing the next 6 months, which yes, Buffett tried doing with COVID and get totally wrong. Go figure
Gregmal Posted July 1, 2022 Posted July 1, 2022 25 minutes ago, Sinbius said: Isn't the motto "Don't bet against America" a macro call? Not really. It’s been his philosophy since he started 9 million years ago. You know how many 10-20% fluctuations we ve had during that time period?
Sinbius Posted July 1, 2022 Posted July 1, 2022 2 minutes ago, Gregmal said: Bet on America is a long term secular call. Much different than guessing the next 6 months, which yes, Buffett tried doing with COVID and get totally wrong. Go figure I figured it out...he thinks, like he should, not in terms of margin of safety (that's easy to talk about when talking with people and a very primitive model), but in terms of expected value (if you listen Ted podcast of course he also think in that way ...)...How I know he thinks in that way? Because he is not a retard and he also know insurance... And he totally got it wrong but he totally got it right in the decision process and that's what counts...he made the right choice...
Sinbius Posted July 1, 2022 Posted July 1, 2022 3 minutes ago, Gregmal said: Not really. It’s been his philosophy since he started 9 million years ago. You know how many 10-20% fluctuations we ve had during that time period? It is a macro call...if he did on Italy it would be wrong ....only america got those high return on the stock market for so long...
Sinbius Posted July 1, 2022 Posted July 1, 2022 Fact are that Ted here I Am Home podcast: Lunch With Warren Buffett, Working for Berkshire Hathaway, and the Future of Investments With Ted Weschler on Apple Podcasts at 45:30....explicitly say that they (we) looked at the russian/ukraine situation and acted on what is a macro call (based on past history on how these things played out in the past)... You can not refuse data...
Gregmal Posted July 1, 2022 Posted July 1, 2022 2 minutes ago, Sinbius said: It is a macro call...if he did on Italy it would be wrong ....only america got those high return on the stock market for so long... You’re talking different definitions of it then. Rule of law, politics, corporate location, all no brainers to almost exclusively invest in America, regardless of the next COVID case count, CPI reading, or recession. There’s folks who buy mining companies in Africa that trade publicly bc they’re “net cash”. You couldn’t give me one for a penny.
Sinbius Posted July 1, 2022 Posted July 1, 2022 Just now, Gregmal said: You’re talking different definitions of it then. Rule of law, politics, corporate location, all no brainers to almost exclusively invest in America, regardless of the next COVID case count, CPI reading, or recession. There’s folks who buy mining companies in Africa that trade publicly bc they’re “net cash”. You couldn’t give me one for a penny. Pls comment on Ted here I Am Home podcast: Lunch With Warren Buffett, Working for Berkshire Hathaway, and the Future of Investments With Ted Weschler on Apple Podcasts at 45:30.. Come here with a straight face and say it is not a macro call....
Gregmal Posted July 1, 2022 Posted July 1, 2022 3 minutes ago, Sinbius said: Fact are that Ted here I Am Home podcast: Lunch With Warren Buffett, Working for Berkshire Hathaway, and the Future of Investments With Ted Weschler on Apple Podcasts at 45:30....explicitly say that they (we) looked at the russian/ukraine situation and acted on what is a macro call (based on past history on how these things played out in the past)... You can not refuse data... What are you looking to prove? Ted found Ukraine bullish for oil?
Gregmal Posted July 1, 2022 Posted July 1, 2022 (edited) 6 minutes ago, Sinbius said: Pls comment on Ted here I Am Home podcast: Lunch With Warren Buffett, Working for Berkshire Hathaway, and the Future of Investments With Ted Weschler on Apple Podcasts at 45:30.. Come here with a straight face and say it is not a macro call.... I made a comment about Buffetts approach, his comments on numerous occasions, and his unwavering ownership rather than frantic day trading of most of the portfolio…and you’re on a rampage to say hey he talked about macro and sometimes uses it to influence his investing. Or that Ted said so or something. Not sure where it’s all going but seems to be getting redundant. Ask Warren if it’s a good idea to hold AXP into a recession for me. Or Ted even though I never mentioned Ted. Edited July 1, 2022 by Gregmal
Sinbius Posted July 1, 2022 Posted July 1, 2022 I don't prove anything...Ted explicitly say they acted on a macro situation thinking in terms of macro outcome to buy stocks...if you want to have confirmation bias and not consider this data you are welcome...
Sinbius Posted July 1, 2022 Posted July 1, 2022 4 minutes ago, Gregmal said: ... Ask Warren if it’s a good idea to hold AXP into a recession for me... ..he doesn't return my phone calls...
Gregmal Posted July 1, 2022 Posted July 1, 2022 4 minutes ago, Sinbius said: I don't prove anything...Ted explicitly say they acted on a macro situation thinking in terms of macro outcome to buy stocks...if you want to have confirmation bias and not consider this data you are welcome... I came to the conclusion they did on energy a year ago when everyone was still obsessing about COVID variants. Again, what exactly are you even trying to prove? Go ahead and be mr macro if you want. To each their own lol
Gregmal Posted July 1, 2022 Posted July 1, 2022 Just now, Sinbius said: ..he doesn't return my phone calls... Well it would be a poor macro call that’s for sure
Sinbius Posted July 1, 2022 Posted July 1, 2022 (edited) 3 minutes ago, Gregmal said: I came to the conclusion they did on energy a year ago when everyone was still obsessing about COVID variants. Again, what exactly are you even trying to prove? Go ahead and be mr macro if you want. To each their own lol I'm not trying to prove...I have proved, and it is not that difficult, that people idealize too much Buffett and what he says...and that people don't even know (and it is easy to spot if you barely follow him) that he also look at the macro picture...and he accounts for it... Edited July 1, 2022 by Sinbius
Sinbius Posted July 1, 2022 Posted July 1, 2022 (edited) I'm not a macro guy...I don't like looking at macro...I follow Peter Lynch advice mainly..."14 minutes on macro are 12 minutes lost ( or something like that)"...I'm just saying Buffett also look at it...because maybe, just maybe what Ted say counts more of what people think to know about Buffett... Edited July 1, 2022 by Sinbius
Gregmal Posted July 1, 2022 Posted July 1, 2022 5 minutes ago, Sinbius said: I'm not trying to prove...I have proved, and it is not that difficult, that people idealize too much Buffett and what he says...and that people don't even know (and it is easy to spot if you barely follow him) that he also look at the macro picture...and he accounts for it... I don’t ever buy post deal spac, but a few times I did. Of course every investor from time to time does different things, especially over the course of 70 years. Again what’s the point? There’s exceptions to every rule. Buffett also doesn’t buy tech and he bought both ibm and Apple. For the average investor playing the macro game is stupid because they’re not wired for it. They sell their stocks on COVID fears and then buy them back once the coast is clear. Shit like that. I kind of idolize David Tepper as an investor. I’d never recommend folks trying to invest like he does.
Sinbius Posted July 1, 2022 Posted July 1, 2022 15 minutes ago, Gregmal said: .... Again what’s the point? ... For the average investor playing the macro game is stupid.... The point is to weight a bit also macro in your thinking process in selecting stocks... For the average investor playing the investing game is stupid (other that regular buying and index over a long period ...and of course also that is stupid if you are not young and "poor"...) ...
Parsad Posted July 1, 2022 Author Posted July 1, 2022 5 hours ago, Gregmal said: Just a quick search, but he says it all the time https://www.cnbc.com/video/2014/10/02/we-dont-look-at-macro-factors-buffett.html trying to invest while fretting the next 10-20% direction is probably one of the worst things an investor can do. I agree! I don't think Buffett or Munger give two s**ts about macro. They may make certain investments based on the direction that industry is moving (clean energy, oil & gas, electric batteries/cars, etc), but they don't care about macro. Cheers!
Parsad Posted July 1, 2022 Author Posted July 1, 2022 5 hours ago, Gregmal said: Bet on America is a long term secular call. Much different than guessing the next 6 months, which yes, Buffett tried doing with COVID and get totally wrong. Go figure Regarding Buffett's so-called "freeze" during the pandemic, I don't think he was paralyzed. I think he wanted to keep a significant amount of cash on hand in case the pandemic lasted 5 years instead of 2. What if there was an earthquake in LA and a F5 hurricane in the Gulf Coast. On a $300B loss, Berkshire would probably eat about $30-50B of that. If half his cash is gone and the pandemic lasts 5 years...Berkshire might not be the last one standing as we've always expected! While he has bought into Munger and Phil Fisher's pay more for quality objective, deep down Buffett is still a Ben Graham, margin of safety, investor. That's why he never paid up for Walmart, Amazon or Costco, yet he knew those businesses inside out. And why he worries about the absolute worst case scenario before committing capital. Cheers!
Parsad Posted July 1, 2022 Author Posted July 1, 2022 6 hours ago, Sinbius said: I don't understand why you look only at Buffett for insight on how to invest...there are way better investors out there and way more willing to teach something... No, there really isn't! He's the best. No one has gone through so many secular bull/bear markets, catastrophes, wars, financial crises (Nifty Fifties, OPEC Oil Embargo, 80's inflation, Black Monday, tech bubble, GFC, Covid, etc) with such a record...20% plus compounded over nearly 70 years...with so few down years. Then to take his hedge fund and turn it into Berkshire Hathaway, acquire a multitude of businesses, teach millions of people, distribute 99% of his wealth to non-profits and still live such a humble life. Nope, no one even close...no one can ever be like him...he's singularly the best and would/should stand next to U.S. giants like Rockefeller, Carnegie, Vanderbilt, etc. You might put Gates and Sam Walton in there too at the end of the day...and possibly Elon Musk and Bezos in that category as well, but we'll have to see what else Musk and Bezos do. Cheers!
Parsad Posted July 1, 2022 Author Posted July 1, 2022 5 hours ago, Sinbius said: I don't prove anything...Ted explicitly say they acted on a macro situation thinking in terms of macro outcome to buy stocks...if you want to have confirmation bias and not consider this data you are welcome... How about from the horse's mouth: https://www.cnbc.com/video/2014/10/02/we-dont-look-at-macro-factors-buffett.html It's not that they ignore macro outright...but it doesn't play a role in their decision making when they are investing. They pay attention to it to see how their businesses might behave or react with macro changes, but not when it comes to investing. Even Buffett's silver bet was made based on supply/demand and the ratio between gold and silver...it was not a macro bet on inflation or where gold was headed. Cheers!
Guest Posted July 2, 2022 Posted July 2, 2022 1 hour ago, Parsad said: No, there really isn't! He's the best. No one has gone through so many secular bull/bear markets, catastrophes, wars, financial crises (Nifty Fifties, OPEC Oil Embargo, 80's inflation, Black Monday, tech bubble, GFC, Covid, etc) with such a record...20% plus compounded over nearly 70 years...with so few down years. Then to take his hedge fund and turn it into Berkshire Hathaway, acquire a multitude of businesses, teach millions of people, distribute 99% of his wealth to non-profits and still live such a humble life. Nope, no one even close...no one can ever be like him...he's singularly the best and would/should stand next to U.S. giants like Rockefeller, Carnegie, Vanderbilt, etc. You might put Gates and Sam Walton in there too at the end of the day...and possibly Elon Musk and Bezos in that category as well, but we'll have to see what else Musk and Bezos do. Cheers! I admire Buffett's investment savy but comparing a guy who invested in stocks to people who actually created things and changed the average person's life? I disagree that he should stand with those guys. He's probably smarter than they are but at the end of the day he pushed paper around, by and large. If the US stock market had gone the way of Japan, he wouldn't be much of anything to speak of (probably). A fair comparison is wealth given to charity.
Parsad Posted July 2, 2022 Author Posted July 2, 2022 42 minutes ago, stahleyp said: I admire Buffett's investment savy but comparing a guy who invested in stocks to people who actually created things and changed the average person's life? I disagree that he should stand with those guys. He's probably smarter than they are but at the end of the day he pushed paper around, by and large. If the US stock market had gone the way of Japan, he wouldn't be much of anything to speak of (probably). A fair comparison is wealth given to charity. Not sure that's fair. Vanderbilt didn't create anything original...he owned steamships, railroads, ocean liners, etc. Same with Rockefeller who owned oil fields and companies. Great is great! Cheers!
Guest Posted July 2, 2022 Posted July 2, 2022 12 minutes ago, Parsad said: Not sure that's fair. Vanderbilt didn't create anything original...he owned steamships, railroads, ocean liners, etc. Same with Rockefeller who owned oil fields and companies. Great is great! Cheers! If Buffett never lived, how would that impact the country vs these other fellows?
Recommended Posts