Russia-Ukrainian War

[cubsfan]

4 hours ago, ValueArb said:

 

Germany is the beneficiary of at least a trillion in US subsidies the last 70 years to rebuild it and protect it from the USSR and Russia. It leaving NATO would be great for the US, we could reduce NATO spending obligations by pulling our troops out and closing Ramstein, and use Germany as buffer space in the next big european war. While its being overrun would give us more time to align defenses for the rest of free europe. 

 

Bingo!  Good luck going it alone Germany! You will make the US taxpayers very, very happy.

 

How you pacifists underestimate Russia. 

 

That's gratitude for you - too bad the Marshall Plan rebuilt Germany...

[ValueArb]

1 hour ago, Luca said:

Putin doesnt want to take over ukraine completely, nor does he want to go further than ukraine. Main concerns were foreign interventions in ukraine regarding their security positioning...the peace treaty was almost there and the chinese published their 10 point plan of which one point was to get back to the negotiating table. 

 

Whats the end game? Complete destruction of ukraine and capitulation after 1m+ of men were killed slowly in this war...they will never beat the russian forces and only if we really go into this war which would lead to what exactly? 

 

 

EDIT: 

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Harald_Kujat

 

 

Its ironic that Harald Kujat has been accused of being pro-russian, not just because of his opinions but also because he was under the employ of a Putin kleptocrat, Vladimir Yakunin. One of the problems that the west has with Germany is the significant number of important politicians and high ranking government employees who have or had close financial ties with Russian kleptocrats. Its certainly not proof that they are under Russian control, or even influence, but you have to see how concerning it is. 

 

Putin is not a trustworthy person to sign peace treaties with. He's already laid out the justification for total subjection of Ukraine, a peace agreement is just a pause for him to rebuild forces. And it will likely embolden him to not just finish off Ukraine but to invade Georgia, etc, all of which is key to his goal of rebuilding the Russian empire. Every domino that topples makes him stronger, and more of a problem for the west, including Germany. 

 

You may think that Ukraine can't win, but I think you are unfairly extrapolating the current stalement. Ukraine might not be able to win, but we don't know that for sure, there are certainly scenarios where they can.

 

For one, Russia can't hold Crimea if Ukraine mounts any significant offensive in the south-east. They are within a few tens of kilometers of being able to cut all the rail lines to Crimea using long range artillery and HIMARS, and if someone gives them long distance missiles with heavy warheads (instead of the cluster munitions on US ATACMs), such as Taurus, they could keep the Kerch bridge out of service for long periods. At that point russian forces in Crimea would be starved of ammunition, supplies, equipment, and even food, and would likely retreat in panic to get on the next ferries out. Once Crimea falls, Ukraine gets to mass far deeper concentrations of troops along a shorter line against the Donbas, which doesn't guarantee a break-through but makes one more likely, and makes any peace deal far more attractive for Ukraine.

 

Russia has lost most of its most advanced weapons and ships already, its only edge is just meat-grinder assaults. Its lost all of its paratroopers and most highly trained forces and is using undertrained conscripts straight from boot. It can't build T-90s in any volume, so its pulling T-74s and T-64s out of long term storage that weren't compettive 40 years ago. Its had to pull back its airforce because of heavy losses of SU-34s, SU-35s, A-50s, etc. Its only path to victory is over a mountain of corpses and through mass artillery barrages. 

 

Now I realize I've been the big bad american on this thread dumping on Germany, Hungary and Turkey for not doing enough or undercutting NATO's defensive posture. But thats just because the topic was not America's short-falls. So in interest of balanced and equal criticism here is all the ways we haven't done our best for Ukraine either.

 

1. We have 3,700 Abrams Tanks in storage, and as many as 3,000 are 40 year old M1A1s that are obsolete for our purposes so most will end up being recycled, but still far superior than Russian T-72s and T-90s in crew protection and most everything else. We've given Ukraine only 31 Abrams, despite them being practically free to us (refurb does cost money but still), and only did that small amount in order to encourage european allies to provide their own modern tanks to Ukraine.

 

2. We have 2,800 Bradley Fighting vehicles in storage (in addition to 3,700 modern ones in our service), again mostly 40 years old and obsolete for our purposes, but still have a great historical record of killing T-64s and T-74s at high rates while offering excellent crew protection. Again, basically free other than refurb costs, and we've only given them 186. 

 

3. We criticize Germany for not providing Taurus, but we only provide the cluster bomb version of ATACMS because we can no longer use them as the US is cycliing out of their use as a step towards banning them. We could provide the large warhead ATACMS to Ukraine to take out the Kerch bridge, but don't. 

 

4. We are helping train Ukrainian pilots on the F-16, but refusing to provide them to Ukraine, despite having over a thousand 30 year old versions in storage that we will never use (other than for parts canniblization).  These are still superior to almost anything Russia flies and ready for almost every NATO weapon we can provide them, unlike Ukraines old MIGs and Sukhois. Instead we have to rely on the Netherlands, Denmark, Norway and Belgium to supply them. 

 

5. Even the Javelins we provide Ukraine are outdated, almost every weapon we've given them is from storage and no longer good enough for our troops. Yet almost all of them are superior to anything Russia can field, especially now. 

 

Biden likes to promote the high dollar figure ($100B) of aid he's sent Ukraine, but the reality is it appears he's way overstating the value of the aid and is using old sticker prices paid decades ago for obsolete equipment that had near zero value to us. He's only giving Ukraine enough help to keep them alive but not enough to help them win. But still, I have to vote for him because the only alternative is a guy who has no appreciation for the dangers of Putin or the value of defending Ukraine.

 

So now I think I've criticized everyone except the UK now so how much fairer can I be?

Edited March 11 by ValueArb

[Luke]

23 minutes ago, cubsfan said:

Bingo!  Good luck going it alone Germany! You will make the US taxpayers very, very happy.

We are spending the 2% of our GDP now annually, no idea why you guys are so fucked up about apparent "US" taxes that are being spend on "germany". 

23 minutes ago, cubsfan said:

How you pacifists underestimate Russia. 

Who said pacifists? You are putting words in my mouth, I said it's not wise to engage into this war with Russia for us and that diplomacy is smart here...why would he want to attack us at all, the facts are pretty clear what this is about.

23 minutes ago, cubsfan said:

That's gratitude for you - too bad the Marshall Plan rebuilt Germany...

This is such a shameful comment, you should be ashamed for saying these things as a US citizen honestly, no idea why you react so agressive.

[Luke]

13 minutes ago, ValueArb said:

 

Its ironic that Harald Kujat has been accused of being pro-russian, not just because of his opinions but also because he was under the employ of a Putin kleptocrat, Vladimir Yakunin. One of the problems that the west has with Germany is the significant number of important politicians and high ranking government employees who have or had close financial ties with Russian kleptocrats. Its certainly not proof that they are under Russian control, or even influence, but you have to see how concerning it is. 

Yadda yadda yadda, he is a MEMBER of an organization of which the owner is a russian. Massive mental stretch and a disgrace to Kujat to throw out these allegations.

13 minutes ago, ValueArb said:

Putin is not a trustworthy person to sign peace treaties with. He's already laid out the justification for total subjection of Ukraine, a peace agreement is just a pause for him to rebuild forces. And it will likely embolden him to not just finish off Ukraine but to invade Georgia, etc, all of which is key to his goal of rebuilding the Russian empire. Every domino that topples makes him stronger, and more of a problem for the west, including Germany. 

Never was and never has been, also not 10-15 years ago and before. The russian empire thesis is massively stretched and unjustifiable. The bigger problem for germany russia relations is the US and not russia itself.

13 minutes ago, ValueArb said:

You may think that Ukraine can't win, but I think you are unfairly extrapolating the current stalement. Ukraine might not be able to win, but we don't know that for sure, there are certainly scenarios where they can.

 

For one, Russia can't hold Crimea if Ukraine mounts any significant offensive in the south-east. They are within a few tens of kilometers of being able to cut all the rail lines to Crimea using long range artillery and HIMARS, and if someone gives them long distance missiles with heavy warheads (instead of the cluster munitions on US ATACMs), such as Taurus, they could keep the Kerch bridge out of service for long periods. At that point russian forces in Crimea would be starved of ammunition, supplies, equipment, and even food, and would likely retreat in panic to get on the next ferries out. Once Crimea falls, Ukraine gets to mass far deeper concentrations of troops along a shorter line against the Donbas, which doesn't guarantee a break-through but makes one more likely, and makes any peace deal far more attractive for Ukraine.

 

Russia has lost most of its most advanced weapons and ships already, its only edge is just meat-grinder assaults. Its lost all of its paratroopers and most highly trained forces and is using undertrained conscripts straight from boot. It can't build T-90s in any volume, so its pulling T-74s and T-64s out of long term storage that weren't compettive 40 years ago. Its had to pull back its airforce because of heavy losses of SU-34s, SU-35s, A-50s, etc. Its only path to victory is over a mountain of corpses and through mass artillery barrages. 

 

 

I am not a military expert: The austrian army uploaded this 2 months ago, comparing to what it sometimes sounds like in the media, ukraine is in a stalemate. 

 

You are arguing for even more deadly far range weapons, UK and france is already helping with geodata and has personal in ukraine to help them operating devices...how nuts can it get? 

 

You are saying russia is a threat for germany and you want us to get even more involved with directly damaging that country...how does that make sense? Yes, if we help ukraine beating russias ass and are directly involved in this war, russia will be a threat obviously...our chancelor already said that taurus is off the table due to the range etc...majority of germans against taurus too. 

 

13 minutes ago, ValueArb said:

 

Now I realize I've been the big bad american on this thread dumping on Germany, Hungary and Turkey for not doing enough or undercutting NATO's defensive posture. But thats just because the topic was not America's short-falls. So in interest of balanced and equal criticism here is all the ways we haven't done our best for Ukraine either.

 

1. We have 3,700 Abrams Tanks in storage, and as many as 3,000 are 40 year old M1A1s that are obsolete for our purposes so most will end up being recycled, but still far superior than Russian T-72s and T-90s in crew protection and most everything else. We've given Ukraine only 31 Abrams, despite them being practically free to us (refurb does cost money but still), and only did that small amount in order to encourage european allies to provide their own modern tanks to Ukraine.

 

2. We have 2,800 Bradley Fighting vehicles in storage (in addition to 3,700 modern ones in our service), again mostly 40 years old and obsolete for our purposes, but still have a great historical record of killing T-64s and T-74s at high rates while offering excellent crew protection. Again, basically free other than refurb costs, and we've only given them 186. 

 

3. We criticize Germany for not providing Taurus, but we only provide the cluster bomb version of ATACMS because we can no longer use them as the US is cycliing out of their use as a step towards banning them. We could provide the large warhead ATACMS to Ukraine to take out the Kerch bridge, but don't. 

 

4. We are helping train Ukrainian pilots on the F-16, but refusing to provide them to Ukraine, despite having over a thousand 30 year old versions in storage that we will never use (other than for parts canniblization).  These are still superior to almost anything Russia flies and ready for almost every NATO weapon we can provide them, unlike Ukraines old MIGs and Sukhois. Instead we have to rely on the Netherlands, Denmark, Norway and Belgium to supply them. 

 

5. Even the Javelins we provide Ukraine are outdated, almost every weapon we've given them is from storage and no longer good enough for our troops. Yet almost all of them are superior to anything Russia can field, especially now. 

 

Biden likes to promote the high dollar figure ($100B) of aid he's sent Ukraine, but the reality is it appears he's way overstating the value of the aid and is using old sticker prices paid decades ago for obsolete equipment that had near zero value to us. He's only giving Ukraine enough help to keep them alive but not enough to help them win. But still, I have to vote for him because the only alternative is a guy who has no appreciation for the dangers of Putin or the value of defending Ukraine.

 

So now I think I've criticized everyone except the UK now so how much fairer can I be?

Pretty good summary of HOW MUCH your country is involved in that war haha! If you want to escalate further welcome to world war 3! 

 

I assume you wont get drafted and will sit at the sidelines shorting european stocks? 

 

Do you see how negotiating, armistice and diplomacy is non existent in what you write? You are coming from an opinion standpoint that negotiation is lost and russia has to be fought actively against with a whole bunch of other countries, sizeable amount and getting close to WW2/WW1 involvment.  At the same time putin repeatedly said publicly they are willing to negotiate.

[cubsfan]

^^^ Luca - somehow you seem to think that Freedom is free. And somehow the world is safe again.

It wasn't that long ago that a good portion of Germany was under Soviet control.

 

How foolish to think it can not happen again. But IF you feel that Germany is indeed a "US Puppet",

then I hope you get your wish and you can go it alone - without NATO.

 

I doubt the Baltic states & Poland feel the same way.

[Luke]

2 minutes ago, cubsfan said:

^^^ Luca - somehow you seem to think that Freedom is free. And somehow the world is safe again.

It wasn't that long ago that a good portion of Germany was under Soviet control.

 

How foolish to think it can not happen again. But IF you feel that Germany is indeed a "US Puppet",

then I hope you get your wish and you can go it alone - without NATO.

 

I doubt the Baltic states & Poland feel the same way.

Your beloved future president trump said publicly on the telly that he "encourages russia to do whatever it wants" because countries didnt pay the 2% of their GDP. How nuts can politics in the US get? This guy is not the average joe talk show man but the possible president. If that doesnt ring bells to become independent from the US i dont know what should. 

 

Freedom is not free but freedom is also not bought with sending even more heavy weapons into this conflict...russia has tactical nukes...did you somehow forget?

 

Anything can happen, thats why we have to upgrade our military, never said we shouldnt. Probably we should get access to nuclear weapons too but thats difficult. Germany does not look after its own interests and follows too much US orders, especially with trump coming up we really should look away from the US and towards stabilizing this region here without the US sending all their gear.

[Luke]

I think one part of why americans are so easily bullish for sending all sort of weapons to ukraine is because they are so far away comfy at home i think  I am sitting 2000km away from the conflict...

Edited March 11 by Luca

[cubsfan]

^^^ Like I said @Luca - good luck going it alone.

 

The world is a dangerous place. Get real.

 

IMHO - the USA and Western Europe need each other - very badly.

[Luke]

Putins billion dollar palace is a couple hundred kilometers away from crimea...who would think he would give that piece back to ukraine so the US can build a military basis on it to bomb him away at some point...xD

Edited March 11 by Luca

[Luke]

Unlikely he wants his peace disturbed! 

 

 

[Luke]

7 minutes ago, cubsfan said:

^^^ Like I said @Luca - good luck going it alone.

 

The world is a dangerous place. Get real.

 

IMHO - the USA and Western Europe need each other - very badly.

IMHO - we need russia and china badly. We can see the contracts by US LNG, we can see how trump thinks about things...nothing is free here and the US will use every way to make money off of our mistakes. Germany with a strong partnership with russia and China stands better against the economic power and coercion by the US then with the US against the two. 

[Luke]

Its seriously time to level the playingfield, we all see how much europe, china, russia etc is down as a region. Do we seriously think the US will help us here? They are more than happy to take our markets and enrich their shareholders via wall street. We should build our own high margin businesses, make the same trump tariff play, use our monopolies against the US for pressure etc...only that way we will take a better share of the cake. 

Edited March 11 by Luca

[Luke]

And Xi+Putin would be more than happy with an increase in cooperation in trades, sciences, cultural educational exchanges. Imagine China building up eurasias silk road...our talent and ressources combined here would be a massive threat against US business.

[Luke]

My friends and I learned russian in school and that was not long ago, why not include chinese too and create more exchanges? Oh but no, they are veeeeeryyy dangerousss and we should better do what the US says!

[cubsfan]

@Luca -  I really, really don't get you dude.  France & Germany are the LEADERS of Europe, not the USA. The US does not control Europe - we are an ALLY - hopefully a vital one for the interests of Europe.  If those nations want no part of the USA - they should go their own way. What is this ridiculous talk of US puppets??  That's just silly. You are sovereign nations!  

 

If you feel Germany has nothing to fear from Russia - go for it.

[Xerxes]

@Luca

 

Not related to the war, were you in Germany when this happened ? I am curious about how locals saw it. Surely this must have been an exercise of sovereignty. 

 

https://money.cnn.com/2017/08/23/investing/germany-gold-reserves-new-york-paris/index.html

 

“In recent years, rumors and conspiracy theories circulated in Germany about its foreign gold reserves. Some fringe observers questioned whether they had been lost or otherwise compromised.

The issue eventually spilled over into mainstream politics, and the German Federal Court of Auditors asked for an inspection of foreign gold reserves in 2012.”

Edited March 11 by Xerxes

[Luke]

12 minutes ago, Xerxes said:

@Luca

 

Not related to the war, were you in Germany when this happened ? I am curious about how locals saw it. Surely this must have been an exercise of sovereignty. 

 

https://money.cnn.com/2017/08/23/investing/germany-gold-reserves-new-york-paris/index.html

 

“In recent years, rumors and conspiracy theories circulated in Germany about its foreign gold reserves. Some fringe observers questioned whether they had been lost or otherwise compromised.

The issue eventually spilled over into mainstream politics, and the German Federal Court of Auditors asked for an inspection of foreign gold reserves in 2012.”

Yes i have been but i dont remember it being such a big deal. What i can say is that current voter estimates are pointing towards 20-25% for the alternative for germany, a right wing party that has a DEXIT, own national currency (gold backed) and stronger relations with russia on their plan. 

 

Interestingly, the AFD was sponsored in their early days partly by DEGUSSA Goldhandel (https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Degussa_Sonne/Mond_Goldhandel), a gold selling company that was bought by august von finck, the father of von finck was once germanies wealthiest man and called "hitlers banker" (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/August_von_Finck_Sr.). 

 

Even stranger, the von finck family bought the rights to the name "DEGUSSA" for several millions in the early 2000, back in the nazi days the company that supplied the gas to kill the jews was also "DEGUSSA AG": https://www.hagalil.com/archiv/98/12/degussa.htm

 

So you have a right wing party, with a focus on national currency, sponsored by germanies wealthiest family of which the ancestors were significant hitler supporters and then BUY the NAME RIGHTS of the company who supplied the gas to kill jews on an industrial scale to support a right wing, nationalist party...

 

Times are interesting guys! 

Edited March 11 by Luca

[Luke]

This is where these folks live btw: 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Not a suprise that putins lifestyle fits well with them ha! 

[Luke]

Besides that i have no opinion on gold and no position. Highly interesting to observe these connections of old generational capital...the road also leads towards russia and of course the sophisticated putin network...

[Xerxes]

53 minutes ago, Luca said:

This is where these folks live btw: 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Not a suprise that putins lifestyle fits well with them ha! 

 

these chaps are definitely NOT buying MicroStrategy hands over fist in their tax-deferred accounts. 
 

Old Money vs. nouveux riche

[alpha]

6 hours ago, Luca said:

 Germany with a strong partnership with russia and China stands better against the economic power and coercion by the US then with the US against the two. 

 

The last time Germany and Russia partnered up, the Russian soldiers celebrated by raping 2 million German women. As far as economics go, East Germany to this day still lags West Germany by most economic metrics.

 

https://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=106687768

 

https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2019/11/06/east-germany-has-narrowed-economic-gap-with-west-germany-since-fall-of-communism-but-still-lags/

[Luke]

4 hours ago, alpha said:

The last time Germany and Russia partnered up, the Russian soldiers celebrated by raping 2 million German women.

Lol, we had perfectly fine business relations with russia for decades, and got the ressources we ordered. Raping women what?

4 hours ago, alpha said:

As far as economics go, East Germany to this day still lags West Germany by most economic metrics.

 

https://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=106687768

 

https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2019/11/06/east-germany-has-narrowed-economic-gap-with-west-germany-since-fall-of-communism-but-still-lags/

Never said russia should GOVERN our country, but we should have good relations with them and increase ressource trade. Culturally they also have SO much to offer...

Edited March 12 by Luca

[Dinar]

2 hours ago, Luca said:

Lol, we had perfectly fine business relations with russia for decades, and got the ressources we ordered. Raping women what?

Never said russia should GOVERN our country, but we should have good relations with them and increase ressource trade. Culturally they also have SO much to offer...

You do not seem to know your history.  During WWII, first German soldiers committed unspeakable atrocities in the former USSR, and then Soviet soldiers avenged this with mass rapes in Germany.  

[Luke]

58 minutes ago, Dinar said:

You do not seem to know your history.  During WWII, first German soldiers committed unspeakable atrocities in the former USSR, and then Soviet soldiers avenged this with mass rapes in Germany.  

That was so long ago man...i am talking about putin era

Edited March 12 by Luca

[Dinar]

13 minutes ago, Luca said:

That was so long ago man...i am talking about putin era

It is not a time long ago to anyone who grew up in the USSR, let alone like Putin in the 1950s.  As for Putin, you cannot make a good deal with a bad man, nobody who was a normal person would join KGB.  Military yes, KGB no.  It was much worse than Stasi - at least Stasi never massacred its own people by the tens of millions.