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Russia-Ukrainian War

changegonnacome

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John Hjorth Veteran

John Hjorth

Posted
Posted
50 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

Nukes are the only way to deter a threat from other (Putin’s) nukes. I do agree leadership is a huge problem. Germany is going to have snap elections in February 23 and who knows what his brings. Best outcome is that the CDU gains ground and get as mandate to do things differently. I am not terribly optimistic about this outcome.

 

These multiple party coalitions can’t get anything done, that’s for sure.

 

From : www.icanw.org :

image.thumb.png.b15bcb30f882bab03aff6c621229ea2c.png

 

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Pelagic Community Regular

Pelagic

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Article by the WSJ that gets into the details of how Russia recruits and pays contract soldiers, as well as compensates their families. The war has been an economic boon for some of Russia's poorest regions it would seem, which is also why popular opposition to it from those regions is limited. And a seemingly effective means for the Russian state to transfer wealth from wealthy districts to poorer ones.

 

Quote

The payouts [death benefits] cost around 8% of state expenditures in the year to June 2024, expanding the budget deficit, according to an analysis by Re: Russia, a research group. The payouts have contributed to a high inflation rate plaguing Russia, leading the central bank to raise interest rates to near-record 21%. And more men going to the front is stoking a labor crunch, leaving employers short of welders, drivers and builders.

 

https://www.wsj.com/world/russia/russia-ukraine-war-military-death-pay-6cfe936e

Archive version - https://archive.ph/wtrq3

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John Hjorth Veteran

John Hjorth

Posted
Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

Well, the labor crunch is probably permanent because the mortality rate of these recruits is very high. 

 

Exactly, @Spekulatius,

 

Statista : Male and female population in Russia as of January 1, 2024, by age group :

 

image.png.4508cb1ed39013bb6e6096b55ce9181c.png

 

There is really fired up in the stove for Mother Russia for the future. Please note the small vintages 0-4 [It looks like Russia has partly stopped reproducing the last few years.] Small vintages 20 - 24 and 25 - 29 likely also separately affected further by war casuilties. Mother Russia sits on a giant time bomb with pension liabilities, that gets gradually triggered, when the large vintages leave the labor market for retirement, and the small vintages shall pay for those large vintages' pension entitlements comming due.

 

Tick-Tock, Tick-Tock...., Boom!

 

- - - o 0 o - - -

 

And the guy running the circus is more interested in getting more land instead of caring for the people living on the soil he already control.

 

- - - o 0 o - - -

 

There will likely happen a collapse of societal structures in Russian hinterland to the East, whole villages and small towns will go defunct and cease to exist, and going on vacation in Tjernobyl in Ukraine will be marketet by LVMH to the Russian people as luxury.

 

I actually went to the town called Kysyl in Eastern Russian, - close to the border to China, I think -, the town mentioned in WSJ article posted by @Pelagic. [At warp speed - Google is my friend].

 

Wikipedia article about Kyzyl, looks fairly nice by the pics in the article. I landed in the crossing that Google Earth cursor indicated as the center of the town, and looked around - the Google Mobile has actually been in town!

 

Ohh-my!😳 - Roads in the town aren't paved, cars run on gravel, tilted poles holding airborne power lines in one huge mess in the air, a couple of old Ladas, hedges and bushes haven't been cut for ages, small kids hanging out together at a street corner, a huge dirty concrete truck taking the corner nearby the kids, absolutely nothing maintained, absolutely everything looked like crap in all directions, except one building. - Welcome to Russia! 😳

 

I was paralyzed by it! I'll spare you for screenshots. I tried to look around about 5 other places, some places a bit better, the same depressing experience all places. I would go nuts living such a place. The mental downwards drag for the citizens living such a place must be huge.

 

- - - o 0 o - - -

 

In stead some eye candy here : The lightning up of the Christmas tree at the central yard yesterday afternoon here in Odense - the city where the poet Hans Christian Andersen was born :

 

image.png.a9341659b0442bdaac33f32b5983a440.png

Edited by John Hjorth
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John Hjorth Veteran

John Hjorth

Posted
Posted

Here, I'm using both quoting and screen shots, to provide objectivity together with contextual fairness and accuracy to the posts up stream by @Xerxes and @UK, I'm commenting on here - I'm sorry for the late reply here :

 

On 11/11/2024 at 8:54 AM, UK said:

And then maybe even Russia itself joins the alliance:). Sorry for the sarcasm, I am afraid that in this case or whatever the actual deal means, chances are going up as we speak I will have to start reading this 'living abroad' thread all over:)

image.thumb.png.ca03f0abbcb3f2f41f3b627055367d30.png

 

You guys are very good at thinking out, likely [I hope] low probality, thought provoking outcome elements of the total outcome space in this mess, thank you for sharing!

 

@UK, If you should reply in a heartbeat here, from the top of your head and your immediate thoughts, where would you go?, if you felt compelled to act immedially? Wagons West [to the other side of the Atlantic Pond, Joe Land perhaps?], south bound in Europe, or something totally different?

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Xerxes Grand Master

Xerxes

Posted
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8 hours ago, UK said:

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/11/17/us/politics/biden-ukraine-russia-atacms-missiles.html

 

Some more escalation.


just like the China tariff that Trump put, everybody moaned and complained, and then Biden just kept …
 

These new “loosened” restrictions by Biden will be kept by Trump, as part of him driving up his negotiating position with Kremlin. Need to go hard before going for a talk. 
 

And better that it is done by Biden than Trump, leaving the latter in position of leverage. It is all part of Art of the Deal. 
 

Who knew how impactful that book would be 

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John Hjorth Veteran

John Hjorth

Posted
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Troels Lund Poulsen : The break in Danish politics is over.

 

So defense budget already ramped up with DKK 200 billion, estimated need for more DKK 300 billion. 😳

 

Jyllandsposten - Helge Ishøy [July 2nd 1999]: 'Die Dumme Dänen' - Still stupid? [<- Damn cool story about Opel, Hitler! 😎😅][So much for collecting a large peace dividend!] - Christ, this is embarrassing ...

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Sweet Mentor

Sweet

Posted
Posted
4 hours ago, John Hjorth said:

Jyllandsposten [November 20th 2024] : The defense has not let a Chinese cargo ship in Danish waters out of sight: This is not normal, assesses an expert.

 

I have no idea or speculation about what this Cat & Mouse thing really is about. But it is concerning to me.

 

- - - o 0 o - - -

 

Edit :

 

 

 

 

 

It's quite amazing how little this is being reported on.

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John Hjorth Veteran

John Hjorth

Posted
Posted (edited)
36 minutes ago, Sweet said:

It's quite amazing how little this is being reported on.

 

Yes, @Sweet,

 

and naturally all over the place here in Denmark. This one I consider fairly good and informative, almost by now updated :

 

dr.dk - Blackout [November 20th 2024] : Danish fleet in operation for Sweden: Chinese ship closely followed after suspected sabotage.

 

- - - o 0 o - - -

 

Edit :

 

Another story from Norway earlier this year, thas has skipped my attention untill now :

 

Bloomberg - News - Video [July 11th 2024] : Is Russia Wawing War under The Seas?

 

Btw : We also have the same weird expression in Danish : It must 'in the sea' or 'under the sea surface', otherwise it would battles in tunnels filled with water! Pretty cumbersome and hard to create such tunnels!

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John Hjorth Veteran

John Hjorth

Posted
Posted (edited)
3 hours ago, Sweet said:

Not good news:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cn0dpdx420lo

 

2 hours ago, cubsfan said:

 

This is even worse news. Escalation like this is counting on Putin to act like a rational man. 

 

https://www.cnn.com/2024/11/19/europe/ukraine-russia-atacms-biden-strike-intl/index.html

 

 

 

@Sweet and Mike [ @cubsfan ],

 

Both situations or events are closely tied to each other, by causation and war logic. It's about leverage, when both fighting parties have run out of steam in a stalemate, where both are forced 'to the table' to talk in stead of fighting, simply they then have acknowledged there are no other feasible options available forward for any of them by fighting, because they have both run out of steam. [Friggin' ugly in it's nature and consequences, but it is so.] [Military logic is so scrary, coldhearted rational and brutal that it is almost beyond comprehension, because it's about violence.]

 

I'll acknowledge that Putin's rationality is a huge questionmark and risk here, ref. Mikes [ @cubsfan ]s stance expressed above, which I respect. However I'm quite sure my respectful disagrement with Mike here is for Mike [ @cubsfan ] understandable, because of differences in perception of skin in the game. Because that is what it really and only is, if one thinks carefully about it.

 

Please think of, what were the actions and thereby messages sent from USA to everyone in those two occations USA has been attacked in history.

 

And please think of what did USA do, when it then had 100% skin in the game, because it was attacked.

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cubsfan Mentor

cubsfan

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, Sweet said:


Disagree, actually for the reasons you stated.  Hard men like Putin only respect power.  Too little too late I fear though.

 

Not sure if we disagree. My point is that this escalation may tip the scale to Putin's response using tactical nukes. A rational actor would likely not go there. 

 

 

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Sweet Mentor

Sweet

Posted
Posted
26 minutes ago, cubsfan said:

 

Not sure if we disagree. My point is that this escalation may tip the scale to Putin's response using tactical nukes. A rational actor would likely not go there. 

 

 


With Putin nobody knows unfortunately.

 

I hope Trump can end the thing, but I don’t think he will be able to.

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cubsfan Mentor

cubsfan

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Xerxes said:

Did Biden authorize it as means to torpedo and burn bridges … 

 

or was it in cahoots with Trump, with the view that the latter needs to go tough before looking for settlement. 
 

we won’t know till Jan 

 

Good question actually.  I doubt Trump would want this, as it makes a settlement infinitely more difficult.  

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