Russia-Ukrainian War

[CGJB]

3 hours ago, Luca said:

Yeah, it's insane, pretty much the same is true in Germany right now. If you have a different opinion than the current government you get cancelled, verbally attacked, not invited, slandered. The level of balls you need to put yourself out there in public and stand for different opinions never had higher personal costs since the DDR in my opinion. Thanks to Tucker Carlson who really provides extremely high quality journalism with risk taking (like going and talking directly with Putin). Obama should give Tucker his nobel peace price. 

 

I think what you say is true for the mainstream media across the collective west. I live in the US and it's bad here. But I have friends and relatives in the UK who tell me that it's even worse there.

[CGJB]

1 hour ago, Xerxes said:

i love Tom Keene but he blew a gasket somewhere within. 
 

I remember that interview 

 

Doesn’t mean Sachs is right about everything though. 

 

Of course he's not right about everything. No one is. But it speaks volumes, and is a huge indictment of the media, that Sachs has been pretty much blackballed for daring to say he believes the US is behind blowing up Nord Stream 2.

[Xerxes]

4 hours ago, Luca said:

Thanks to Tucker Carlson who really provides extremely high quality journalism with risk taking (like going and talking directly with Putin). Obama should give Tucker his nobel peace price. 

Tucker has its own agenda.
 

But sometimes that works to our advantage [the public]. As more information/points of view are shared. 
 

 

[ValueArb]

20 hours ago, CGJB said:

For many years, Jeffrey Sachs would appear on mainstream corporate media networks and be quoted in the major publications. Then he appeared on Bloomberg TV and, in an interview with Tom Keene, said that the US was behind blowing up the Nord Stream 2 pipeline. Keene's reaction was priceless. It was a textbook case of someone going against the approved "narrative" and Keene didn't know what to do.

I don't think Sachs has appeared on any of the mainstream corporate media outlets since. Total black eye for Bloomberg and the rest of the media.

 

Did he present any evidence other than Biden's out of context public statement?

[Xerxes]

It is true that the good professor presented no hard evidence when he went on Bloomberg. 
 

It is also true that everybody else in the mainstream media also did not present any hard evidence that it was Kremlin, except for their very strong feeling. And a pre-written narrative of how it makes absolute sense that it was the Kremlin. 

 

Even my beloved The Economist, and I remember this very well, wrote “… most likely by Russia …” when it happened but since kept an “open mind” as oppose to point fingers. 
 

I for one wrote on this very board “ most likely Poles, or Americans”. I am still fairly certain that the Poles played a strong role in it. But no evidence. 
 

The reality is that whoever did it, know that it did it and whoever did not do it, knows that it didn’t do it. 
 

Whether Russia has hard evidence, it will not see the light of the day, as this falls under “proxy war” and not sovereign to sovereign, which would need a response. Same goes for the Americans, if they have hard evidence that it was Russian, this could trigger Article 5. 
 

Both sides have something to gain to keep this under the wrap. 

[ValueArb]

The first generation Bradley’s we gave Ukraine are obsolete by western military standards, but they are dominating against Russian troop carriers just as they did decades ago against Russian tanks in Iraq. We have a thousand more in storage that we will never use, all should be sent to Ukraine.

 

https://apple.news/A-x76W-vnQIqW96l24GlXRg

[cubsfan]

^^^ great article & video

[John Hjorth]

Bloomberg - Politics [June 7^th 2024] : Putin’s Wartime Central Banker Tells Him What He Doesn’t Want to Hear.

 

Bank of Russia Govenor Elvira Nabiiullina is on a Mission Impossible to make ends meet in the Russian economy. I can't imagine anyone envy her job and responisibilities.

 

Exports revenue trimbling, collapsing and diving O&G taxes, enormous frozen reverves abroad [the worst nightmare of every beancounter], enormous budget deficits that she has to make sure to cover. More debt, more debt, more debt, all the time, which eventually will cause the RUB eventually to crash, again causing inflation to rage the whole country, causing dire straits in weak households and among the poor, the elder generation and among children, who did not win in the ovarial lottery.

 

It is just so depressing to think about.

[cubsfan]

^^ Terrible.  But if he's gonna wreck Ukraine, might as well wreck his own country.

 

[Pelagic]

43 minutes ago, John Hjorth said:

Bloomberg - Politics [June 7^th 2024] : Putin’s Wartime Central Banker Tells Him What He Doesn’t Want to Hear.

 

Bank of Russia Govenor Elvira Nabiiullina is on a Mission Impossible to make ends meet in the Russian economy. I can't imagine anyone envy her job and responisibilities.

 

Exports revenue trimbling, collapsing and diving O&G taxes, enormous frozen reverves abroad [the worst nightmare of every beancounter], enormous budget deficits that she has to make sure to cover. More debt, more debt, more debt, all the time, which eventually will cause the RUB eventually to crash, again causing inflation to rage the whole country, causing dire straits in weak households and among the poor, the elder generation and among children, who did not win in the ovarial lottery.

 

It is just so depressing to think about.

 

Was just listening to this which outlines the plan the Trump admin would likely take to weaken Russia's economy. The meat and potatoes of it starts around 10:30. Basically when oil prices are high, Russia has money to burn and gets adventurous. Low prices shrink Russian budgets and limit their capacity to bother their neighbors.

 

https://www.politico.eu/podcast/trumps-plan-to-end-the-ukraine-war-bankrupt-putins-regime/

 

 

 

[John Hjorth]

Thanks, @Pelagic,

 

Great read.

 

- - - o 0 o - - -

 

A bit more about Bank of Russia Govenor Elvira Nabiiullina :

 

The Economist actually has a piece about her by now in the 1843 Magazine :

 

1843 magazine explores the “Shakespearean” complexities of Elvira Nabiullina, Russia’s wartime banker :

 

The Economist - 1843 Magazine [May 31^st 2024] : Meet the poetry-loving banker who keeps Putin’s war going How long can Elvira Nabiullina work her magic?

 

- - - o 0 o - - -

 

To me personally, it's actually at least just a bit comforting, that there is at least one person with real influence close to Vladimir Putin in the Russian Government, who try to act based on actual data and reason, constantly trying to get the best out the situation.

Edited June 8 by John Hjorth

[scorpioncapital]

4 hours ago, John Hjorth said:

who try to act based on actual data and reason, constantly trying to get the best out the situation.

 

So a good banker can make you win or realize you can't win? I can see it go both ways.

 

[John Hjorth]

23 minutes ago, scorpioncapital said:

 

So a good banker can make you win or realize you can't win? I can see it go both ways.

 

 

That's the paradox related to Elvira Nabiiullina :

 

Why is she doing this? -Staying at helm of Bank of Russia as Govenor when she actually disagrees with her boss on material matters.

 

Possible answers that I can see :

 

1. Personal considerations, related to maintaining her position, privileges, competencies and power allocated to her by her Boss.

2. For the sake of Mother Russia - the country and its population, letting these vindicate her own ambitions and desires. Personal submissiveness to obtain the privilege of active damage control.

 

- - - o 0 o - - - 

 

Personally, I speculate it's # 2. And I speculate she really has a hard time doing it. But what do I know about that.

Edited June 8 by John Hjorth

[scorpioncapital]

40 minutes ago, John Hjorth said:

 

That's the paradox related to Elvira Nabiiullina :

 

Why is she doing this? -Staying at helm of Bank of Russia as Govenor when she actually disagrees with her boss on material matters.

 

Possible answers that I can see :

 

1. Personal considerations, related to maintaining her position, privileges, competencies and power allocated to her by her Boss.

2. For the sake of Mother Russia - the country and its population, letting these vindicate her own ambitions and desires. Personal submissiveness to obtain the privilege of active damage control.

 

- - - o 0 o - - - 

 

Personally, I speculate it's # 2. And I speculate she really has a hard time doing it. But what do I know about that.

 

or 3. gun to head.  In some societies it is not clear what people are thinking because it is very opaque. And what you see on the news is not at all what is actually going on. When she met with Christine Lagarde a few years ago I almost thought I could see a look in her eyes like an SOS message from one woman to the other. But again, no way to prove it.

 

[John Hjorth]

12 minutes ago, scorpioncapital said:

 

or 3. gun to head.  In some societies it is not clear what people are thinking because it is very opaque. And what you see on the news is not at all what is actually going on. When she met with Christine Lagarde a few years ago I almost thought I could see a look in her eyes like an SOS message from one woman to the other. But again, no way to prove it.

 

 

@scorpioncapital,

 

Yes, absolutely positive on that, too. However I would give it a very low probability, for a couple of reasons.

 

First, I think she would set up an escape to Western Europe, if she felt that kind of heat was building up from her Boss, and I think she would react immedially, if so. There is to me no doubt that she has access to and control over funds and other means to do so.

 

Second, she's a true hardballer and badass herself. Since taking office, she has closed about 400 Russian banks owned by russian oligarchs and other good and entrepreneurial people, involved in all kinds of criminal activities, money laudering etc, - you name it. Every time somebody has threatened her, she just ramped up on personal security. No sweat.

 

A genuine red head with regard to temper and all that!

[UK]

13 hours ago, John Hjorth said:

 

@scorpioncapital,

 

Yes, absolutely positive on that, too. However I would give it a very low probability, for a couple of reasons.

 

First, I think she would set up an escape to Western Europe, if she felt that kind of heat was building up from her Boss, and I think she would react immedially, if so. There is to me no doubt that she has access to and control over funds and other means to do so.

 

Second, she's a true hardballer and badass herself. Since taking office, she has closed about 400 Russian banks owned by russian oligarchs and other good and entrepreneurial people, involved in all kinds of criminal activities, money laudering etc, - you name it. Every time somebody has threatened her, she just ramped up on personal security. No sweat.

 

A genuine red head with regard to temper and all that!

 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-03-23/russia-central-banker-wanted-out-over-ukraine-but-putin-said-no?embedded-checkout=true

[ValueArb]

Credit where credit is due. The first Ukrainian “SAMbush” of a Russian A-50 Mainstay by a Patriot system was a German tactical innovation they trained the Ukrainians for.

 

“According to Col. Clemente, the German soldiers tasked with training the Ukrainians on the mobile Patriot systems woke up the Ukrainian battery in the middle of the night, marched them to a location where they fought a simulated air battle, and then made them march again. “I was like, ‘Huh, wonder why they did that?’ And it was a month later, they conducted some of their first ambushes where they’re shooting down Russian Su-27s along the Russian border.”

 

https://www.twz.com/land/u-s-army-officer-confirms-russian-a-50-radar-jet-was-shot-down-with-patriot-missile

 

Edited June 15 by ValueArb

[John Hjorth]

Bloomberg - Politics [June 15^th 2024] Danes Asked to Keep Supplies, Iodine Pills to Prepare for Crises.

 

I suppose that perhaps this potential countermeasure for some CoBF members may seem and appear out of proportion, given the situation.

 

But it's actually real and tangible here, and tells a lot about the overall local sentiment here.

[Spekulatius]

On 6/8/2024 at 1:04 PM, scorpioncapital said:

 

or 3. gun to head.  In some societies it is not clear what people are thinking because it is very opaque. And what you see on the news is not at all what is actually going on. When she met with Christine Lagarde a few years ago I almost thought I could see a look in her eyes like an SOS message from one woman to the other. But again, no way to prove it.

 

I don’t think it’s gun to the head.

#3 reason (beyond #1 and #2) is that she is good at it and it is rewarding to do something that you are good at. Seems strange, but Werner von Braun was good at designing  rockets and while I don’t think he was a Nazi, he could not let go and helped produce the V1 and the V2.

 

Hjalmar  Schacht (Hitler’s Banker) May be similar historic figure.

Edited June 16 by Spekulatius

[scorpioncapital]

so if it is not gun to head we can say complicit? I mean, she can easily emigrate if she wanted to? How did that work out for other emigrant high level officials? I believe the KGB was/is still hunting them abroad with threat of poisoned assassination. 

[John Hjorth]

On 6/16/2024 at 1:24 PM, John Hjorth said:

Bloomberg - Politics [June 15^th 2024] Danes Asked to Keep Supplies, Iodine Pills to Prepare for Crises.

 

I suppose that perhaps this potential countermeasure for some CoBF members may seem and appear out of proportion, given the situation.

 

But it's actually real and tangible here, and tells a lot about the overall local sentiment here.

 

Meanwhile, other places :

 

 

 

[cubsfan]

38 minutes ago, John Hjorth said:

 

Meanwhile, other places :

 

 

 

Wow - interesting that Kennedy had no respect for another country’s right to choose their own self-defense.

Edited June 17 by cubsfan

[ValueArb]

6 minutes ago, cubsfan said:

Wow - interesting that Kennedy had no respect for another country’s right to choose their own self-defend.

 

NATO is the vaccine to cure the virus of Russian expansionism, which is why RFK Inferior dislikes it. 

[cubsfan]

Interesting. Not at all up on his agenda, although he has some appeal.

[John Hjorth]

12 minutes ago, ValueArb said:

 

NATO is the vaccine to cure the virus of Russian expansionism, which is why RFK Inferior dislikes it. 

 

Please elaborate a bit, @ValueArb, as I did not understand this post of yours in the first place.