Political Posts

[Spekulatius]

SOH still closed. All it takes for Iran to take pot shots at some ships or the escorts (US Apache helicopter was downed a few days ago) and not much goes through.

https://hormuztracking.com

[Spekulatius]

10 hours ago, cubsfan said:

Bessent is saying Iran's frozen assets will be confiscated to pay the gulf states back that were attacked - billions in damages. Iran wants every penny they can get because of the blockade.

They won't get that lifeline from Bessent unless there is 100% proof of compliance to US terms.

I have an inking it works like this.

 

Trump to release frozen funds to Gulf states for reparations

Trumo declares victory and moves on to other projects. Greenland anyone, Cuba, $250 dollar bill with his visage, 6 flag amusement park on the White House lawn, WH ballroom. So many projects and so little time.

 

The Gulf states negotiate with Iran for price Iran gets funding for rebuilding matching the amount of frozen funds given to them in exchange for keeping the SOH unmolested. Money is fungible  and can be laundered. Everyone wins.

 

Anyways, once the Trump armada leaves for other projects, the Gulf states will make a deal with Iran of some sorts, The sooner he leaves, the quicker the deal.

Edited yesterday at 03:32 AM by Spekulatius

[ourkid8]

10 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

I have an inking it works like this.

 

Trump to release frozen funds to Gulf states for reparations

Trumo declares victory and moves on to other projects. Greenland anyone, Cuba, $250 dollar bill with his visage, 6 flag amusement park on the White House lawn, WH ballroom. So many projects and so little time.

 

The Gulf states negotiate with Iran for price Iran gets funding for rebuilding matching the amount of frozen funds given to them in exchange for keeping the SOH unmolested. Money is fungible  and can be laundered. Everyone wins.

 

Anyways, once the Trump armada leaves for other projects, the Gulf states will make a deal with Iran of some sorts, The sooner he leaves, the quicker the deal.  

They have already payed Iran for protection and will continue to pay as the regional supper power as the GCC countries no longer need / trust US. They have also started to discuss reparations behind the scenes.  - (US is now understanding the pandora’s box they opened up by listening to Israel. -Israel better learn to play nice otherwise Iran will start mowing the lawn in Israel on a frequent basis) 

 

Two regional sources told Reuters that the UAE had agreed to release a total of $10bn, more than $3bn of which had already been delivered.

Reuters also reported that two other sources with knowledge of the ⁠arrangement put the total funds involved at $20bn, adding that the move had been agreed in return for a halt to Iranian attacks on the UAE.

One of the sources with knowledge of the arrangement also said a first tranche of $3bn had already been made available.

 

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/6/12/uae-to-unlock-frozen-iranian-funds-amid-us-ceasefire-push

 

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/qatar-tried-secret-deal-making-iran-protect-worlds-largest-gas-complex

 

 

Edited 22 hours ago by ourkid8

[ourkid8]

Great, it seems the tide is slowly turning where in the US you will be at a disadvantage taking Israeli money! 

 

 

Edited 20 hours ago by ourkid8

[Spekulatius]

On 5/19/2026 at 10:27 PM, Mephistopheles said:

Maybe Elon musk can DOGE save us another couple billion

 

Can’t wait to see the cult crawl out of Trump’s ass to defend this one

No, we are getting srewwormed:

 

 

[cubsfan]

Cautious optimism:

 

 

https://www.foxnews.com/live-news/iran-war-news-us-trump-strait-hormuz-oil-price-peace-deal-june-13#post-d960143

 

[changegonnacome]

15 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

Anyways, once the Trump armada leaves for other projects, the Gulf states will make a deal with Iran of some sorts,

 

You bet. They all live in the shadow of Iran now....economically (SOH) and militarily (missiles/drones).

 

Trump took a latent theoretical capability Iran had and made it manifest real while at the exact same time shattering the illusion for the Major Non-NATO Allies (MNNA) in the region that being the US's partner equaled enhanced safety and security (quite the opposite it turned out) .......will be very interesting to watch what happens to the US bases in the region (the one's that were either destroyed or made inoperational by Iran) My guess is a substantial number will never be brought back online as the host countries delay/decline their repair & so U.S. forward-operating capabilities will be structurally impaired forever. The illusion of absolute U.S. security has been shattered, meaning regional actors will likely seek diplomatic hedges with Tehran rather than relying solely on Western/US military deterrence.

 

Winning and losing is for four year olds to argue over but I think its clear the US's relative power in the region has been diminished and Iran's enhanced - no American President should be proud of an outcome like that.

[cubsfan]

30 minutes ago, changegonnacome said:

 Winning and losing is for four year olds to argue over but I think its clear the US's relative power in the region has been diminished and Iran's enhanced - no American President should be proud of an outcome like that.

 

Yeah right. Let's return the ropes to Biden and Obama for lessons on how to react in the Middle East. 

 

Cut and run - leave billions in armaments to your worst enemies. And if that is not enough - let's fund their nuclear threat with billions - at the same time as funding their terrorist proxies for years.

 

That shows real "American Strength".

[Spekulatius]

2 hours ago, cubsfan said:

Cautious optimism:

 

 

https://www.foxnews.com/live-news/iran-war-news-us-trump-strait-hormuz-oil-price-peace-deal-june-13#post-d960143

 

Trump has mellowed a lot. He usually declares war on Friday after the close  and then cancels it before market open on Monday.

 

Here is a little cash advance for the Iranians in the meantime, maybe to grease the wheels:

https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/uae-unlock-billions-dollars-iran-sources-say-2026-06-12/

 

[changegonnacome]

6 minutes ago, cubsfan said:

Let's return the ropes to Biden and Obama for lessons on how to react in the Middle East. 

 

I heard no underlying repudiation of the underlying proposition in my post....just a usual whataboutism about Biden / Obama did a decade....broadly when you see that its an implicit acknowledgment that the proposition put forward is best not tackled on its merits but rather pivoted away from.

 

But as always interested in perspectives from Fox land if you can provide them. How has Iran's regional power been diminished post-Epic Fury after they've successfully held the region/globe hostage here for two months DESPITE the US trying to stop it AND how has the US's been enhanced seen as it failed to stop Iran doing that.

 

I mean you do realize what's happening here with this MOU where all the hard stuff is kicked out to Round 2?

In a phased agreement where the core, existential issue, nuclear development, is kicked to round two. Iran knows that once the U.S. administration claims a diplomatic victory in Phase 1, the political appetite in Washington to walk away and return to the brink of conflict over round two demands/belligerence will be severely diminished. It is not the art of the deal, its the art of the off ramp. 

[Spekulatius]

33 minutes ago, cubsfan said:

Yeah right. Let's return the ropes to Biden and Obama for lessons on how to react in the Middle East. 

Sometimes and in politics quite often doing nothing is the best course of action. Especially true if you don’t know what you are doing.

[cubsfan]

41 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

Sometimes and in politics quite often doing nothing is the best course of action. Especially true if you don’t know what you are doing.

 

It's definitely true in the case of Obama/Biden.

 

Their Ivy League cohorts led them to disastrous decisions.  Can you imagine the stupidity of funding the nuclear ambitions of the greatest terrorist nation in the world?    Talk about being played as suckers.

 

Then you leave the Taliban with $50B worth of state of the art military supplies in Kabul.

 

Then you give the IRGC billions for their terror proxies.

 

Those two complete morons did much more than "nothing".

 

At least we have Trump to clean up after this disaster.

Edited 13 hours ago by cubsfan

[cubsfan]

30 minutes ago, changegonnacome said:

 

I heard no underlying repudiation of the underlying proposition in my post....just a usual whataboutism about Biden / Obama did a decade....broadly when you see that its an implicit acknowledgment that the proposition put forward is best not tackled on its merits but rather pivoted away from.

 

But as always interested in perspectives from Fox land if you can provide them. How has Iran's regional power been diminished post-Epic Fury after they've successfully held the region/globe hostage here for two months DESPITE the US trying to stop it AND how has the US's been enhanced seen as it failed to stop Iran doing that.

 

I mean you do realize what's happening here with this MOU where all the hard stuff is kicked out to Round 2?

In a phased agreement where the core, existential issue, nuclear development, is kicked to round two. Iran knows that once the U.S. administration claims a diplomatic victory in Phase 1, the political appetite in Washington to walk away and return to the brink of conflict over round two demands/belligerence will be severely diminished. It is not the art of the deal, its the art of the off ramp. 

 

Big-time win for Iran.

 

Leaders dead. Military destroyed. Oil price @ $78, not $200. Economy destroyed. Overseas assets Frozen. Currency worthless.

 

Yeah, change, huge victory

 

ROFL

[changegonnacome]

37 minutes ago, cubsfan said:

Big-time win for Iran.

 

Wins/losses are for four year olds as i said.

 

The question is moving forward here who's relative regional power has been enhanced and who's has been diminished - Iran or the US's? I think the answer is obvious here - Iran was able to shut down commerce in the region for two months via the SOH and the US had no answer to re-open it by force. Iran retained the ability right up to the MOU signing to down American Apache helicopters and hit Israel & other GCC targets showing the ability to take a beating for a month and still retain deterrents.

 

Strategic objectives met or unmet, relative power changes & latent leverage post-conflict is how strategists measure a conflicts outcome......children count how many ships got sunk, how many things got blown up......the relentless focus on messaging on the tactical wins of Epic Fury are in and of themselves an acknowledgment that strategically its been a disaster. The MOU is a throwing in of the towel here - who in their right mind if they hold all the cards, takes the pressure off the opponent and kicks everything off substance down the road to be figured out later. The answer is obvious - the person who was pretending to have the leverage and the options.

[cubsfan]

1 hour ago, Spekulatius said:

Trump has mellowed a lot. He usually declares war on Friday after the close  and then cancels it before market open on Monday.

 

Here is a little cash advance for the Iranians in the meantime, maybe to grease the wheels:

https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/uae-unlock-billions-dollars-iran-sources-say-2026-06-12/

 

 

Damn Spek - you believe anything.  LOL

 

UAE Categorically Denies Media Reports Alleging Transfer of Funds to Iran

Sat 13/6/2026

 

The United Arab Emirates has categorically denied reports published by certain international media outlets alleging the transfer of funds from the UAE to the Islamic Republic of Iran, including allegations concerning USD 3 billion.

 

https://www.mofa.gov.ae/en/MediaHub/News/2026/6/13/UAE-IRAN

 

[cubsfan]

16 minutes ago, changegonnacome said:

 

Wins/losses are for four year olds as i said.

 

The question is moving forward here who's relative regional power has been enhanced and who's has been diminished - Iran or the US's? I think the answer is obvious here - Iran was able to shut down commerce in the region for two months via the SOH and the US had no answer to re-open it by force. Iran retained the ability right up to the MOU signing to down American Apache helicopters and hit Israel & other GCC targets showing the ability to take a beating for a month and still retain deterrents.

 

Strategic objectives met or unmet, relative power changes & latent leverage post-conflict is how strategists measure a conflicts outcome......children count how many ships got sunk, how many things got blown up......the relentless focus on messaging on the tactical wins of Epic Fury are in and of themselves an acknowledgment that strategically its been a disaster. The MOU is a throwing in of the towel here - who in their right mind if they hold all the cards, takes the pressure off the opponent and kicks everything off substance down the road to be figured out later. The answer is obvious - the person who was pretending to have the leverage and the options.

 

Yeah, we're going to find out Sunday.

 

I don't think anything gets signed, cause if it does, it's basically a surrender document for the IRGC.  The MOU or whatever gets signed, says SOH gets opened "unconditionally" basically. ie - Iran does not collect tolls, can't keep the Jews or Americans out of the SOH, and any ship may pass.

 

I can't see Iran signing that - as it is very close to an unconditional surrender - even if they are being strangled economically.

 

You and your "wins/losses are for 4 year olds". Good for you change.

 

We will see if Iran gives 100% release on the SOH on Sunday. I doubt it.  But if they don't - it will be bombs away - and you'll tell me Iran is in complete control... LOL

[changegonnacome]

1 hour ago, cubsfan said:

SOH gets opened "unconditionally" basically. ie - Iran does not collect tolls, can't keep the Jews or Americans out of the SOH, and any ship may pass.

 

I can't see Iran signing that - as it is very close to an unconditional surrender

Cubs - what you just described (SOH reopening) is a return to status quo that existed prior to Epic Fury….characterizing a return to the status quo ex ante as a successful output to military campaign is an oxymoron. 

[cubsfan]

1 hour ago, changegonnacome said:

Cubs - what you just described (SOH reopening) is a return to status quo that existed prior to Epic Fury….characterizing a return to the status quo ex ante as a successful output to military campaign is an oxymoron. 

 

You are kidding right?  

 

SOH open, oil back to normal, Iran's ability to wage war finished, nuclear ambitions set back 10+ years.

 

Give me break.

[changegonnacome]

2 hours ago, cubsfan said:

SOH open

Return to Feb 28th status quo

 

2 hours ago, cubsfan said:

oil back to normal

Return to Feb 28th status quo

 

2 hours ago, cubsfan said:

Iran's ability to wage war finished

Explain? Cause last I checked their missle projection power was reduced by max 20% according to US intelligence, they’ve proven they can launch missiles at gulf/israeli targets at will and despite all efforts they closed the SoH for two months and despite the US attempts it could never be re-opened by unilateral force. If we want to talk about Iran’s war toolkit here, deterrents. their credible threats, their leverage… moving forward it looks greatly enhanced to me.
 

And if that weren’t enough Trump is going to send them money, plus sanction waivers to get himself out of jail here. Then Gulf neighbors are going to pay tribute to keep the SOH open.

 

2 hours ago, cubsfan said:

nuclear ambitions set back 10+ years

 

Oh yeah - last I checked the MOU has kicked everything nuclear out to Phase II….and anyway the baseline here (for epic fury’s success) is what was available in Geneva Feb 27th at the negotiating table compared to today ….ive not seen much nuclear incrementalism in the deal rumors but let’s see.

 

Israel/Bibi are livid because they should be……they signed up to change the game for the better in the ME…you can tell a story about things being much much worse in ME moving forward for all the reasons we discussed. 
 

Anyway my sense is that this deal looks so poor that I think Trump double taps Iran after the midterms. If things were left as they are here  it’s frankly embarrassing for his legacy (which he cares about deeply). 

[Sweet]

2 hours ago, changegonnacome said:

Return to Feb 28th status quo

 

Return to Feb 28th status quo

 

Explain? Cause last I checked their missle projection power was reduced by max 20% according to US intelligence, they’ve proven they can launch missiles at gulf/israeli targets at will and despite all efforts they closed the SoH for two months and despite the US attempts it could never be re-opened by unilateral force. If we want to talk about Iran’s war toolkit here, deterrents. their credible threats, their leverage… moving forward it looks greatly enhanced to me.
 

And if that weren’t enough Trump is going to send them money, plus sanction waivers to get himself out of jail here. Then Gulf neighbors are going to pay tribute to keep the SOH open.

 

 

Oh yeah - last I checked the MOU has kicked everything nuclear out to Phase II….and anyway the baseline here (for epic fury’s success) is what was available in Geneva Feb 27th at the negotiating table compared to today ….ive not seen much nuclear incrementalism in the deal rumors but let’s see.

 

Israel/Bibi are livid because they should be……they signed up to change the game for the better in the ME…you can tell a story about things being much much worse in ME moving forward for all the reasons we discussed. 
 

Anyway my sense is that this deal looks so poor that I think Trump double taps Iran after the midterms. If things were left as they are here  it’s frankly embarrassing for his legacy (which he cares about deeply). 

Love ya cubs, but I agree with change

[Spekulatius]

11 hours ago, cubsfan said:

 

Damn Spek - you believe anything.  LOL

 

UAE Categorically Denies Media Reports Alleging Transfer of Funds to Iran

Sat 13/6/2026

 

The United Arab Emirates has categorically denied reports published by certain international media outlets alleging the transfer of funds from the UAE to the Islamic Republic of Iran, including allegations concerning USD 3 billion.

 

https://www.mofa.gov.ae/en/MediaHub/News/2026/6/13/UAE-IRAN

 

Maybe, let’s be clear. UAE are a bunch of self dealing crooks:

https://www.mofa.gov.ae/en/MediaHub/News/2026/6/12/UAE-Russia

[Spekulatius]

Even if there were a deal, the threat to the SOH is now latent. All it takes a few relatively low tech rockets, drones or $20k robot speed boats to close it. This asymmetrical tech didn’t exist 10 or 20 years ago, but it does exist now. Iran and other states have it.

The Iran could not close the SOH in the Iranian- Iraq war or during the Islamic revolution in the early 80‘s but now they can now. Once the technological cat is out of the bag, it can’t be put back in.