Political Posts

[changegonnacome]

11 minutes ago, 73 Reds said:

Where are the critics other than from left wing nuts and the UN?

 

Tucker Carslon, Steve Bannon are left wing nuts now? Their view perfectly aligns with mine on this particular Iran/Israel issue.

 

 

 

 

[Spekulatius]

3 hours ago, changegonnacome said:

They weren't - don't believe me - believe Trump's own appointed Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard in March 2025 who testifyed to the matter under oath to Congress:

https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/americas-spies-say-iran-wasnt-building-a-nuclear-weapon-trump-dismisses-that-assessment

Tulsi was thrown under the bus the day before Trump dropped the bombs on Iran. He then simply declared that Tulsi was wrong. It was clear to me then that he would get involved militarily because that’s how he operates. He changes his opinions and the truth is whatever is convenient to justify his current stance. I don’t think Tulsi testifying in a march really means much as it was compliant with Trumps opinion about Iran at that time (make a deal with Iran). When he changes his mind, he throws whoever works for him to justify the earlier stance under the bus, the opposite of yesterday’s truth may be the truth of today in the Orwellian doublethink fashion. He always keeps maximum optionality that way.

Edited July 12, 2025 by Spekulatius

[changegonnacome]

Truth to that - but what I would say is that reporting from then and leading up to bombing indicated that indeed US intelligence’s consensus view was Iran remained very far away from a bomb , not particularly driving hard to get one and most certainly was no where close to Bibi’s threat inflation…..that same view was backed up the IAEA.

 

As mentioned above - the US’s/the world is losing vital insights into the situation on the ground especially since the IAEA is now gone…..we are relying more and more on the boy who has cried wolf for going on 20yrs years now….and a Bibi led Israel is not a reliable source on this topic.

[Spekulatius]

Just a different opinion on the 12 day war of Israel against Iran and it’s not from the left:

https://mises.org/power-market/12-day-war-was-political-disaster-america-and-israel

 

Essentially, what has Netanyahu has done is make Israel’s problem America’s problem now as well. I don’t think there is an easy way out either and in my opinion, we are at war with Iran now and how this plays out remains to be seen and the real result will not be known perhaps a decade from now. What we do know, that we are now entangled in this conflict. Ironically this is something Trump accused Biden with the Ukraine Russian war, even though Biden weren’t through great lengths to get America not directly involved. Now with the Iran- Israel conflict, America is directly involved.

[cubsfan]

1 hour ago, Spekulatius said:

Just a different opinion on the 12 day war of Israel against Iran and it’s not from the left:

https://mises.org/power-market/12-day-war-was-political-disaster-america-and-israel

 

Essentially, what has Netanyahu has done is make Israel’s problem America’s problem now as well. I don’t think there is an easy way out either and in my opinion, we are at war with Iran now and how this plays out remains to be seen and the real result will not be known perhaps a decade from now. What we do know, that we are now entangled in this conflict. Ironically this is something Trump accused Biden with the Ukraine Russian war, even though Biden weren’t through great lengths to get America not directly involved. Now with the Iran- Israel conflict, America is directly involved.

 

Say what you like. Iran looks totally feckless, totally incompetent - like the Keystone Cops. How easily did the Israelis infiltrate ever aspect of their military, nuclear program and IRCG?  The Iranians look like buffoons - and their top level of military leaders & nuclear scientist killed with easy and efficiency. 

 

The paper tiger has been totally humiliated and defeated.

 

Iran is the laughing stock of the Middle East.

[John Hjorth]

2 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

Just a different opinion on the 12 day war of Israel against Iran and it’s not from the left:

https://mises.org/power-market/12-day-war-was-political-disaster-america-and-israel

 

Essentially, what has Netanyahu has done is make Israel’s problem America’s problem now as well. I don’t think there is an easy way out either and in my opinion, we are at war with Iran now and how this plays out remains to be seen and the real result will not be known perhaps a decade from now. What we do know, that we are now entangled in this conflict. Ironically this is something Trump accused Biden with the Ukraine Russian war, even though Biden weren’t through great lengths to get America not directly involved. Now with the Iran- Israel conflict, America is directly involved.

 

Here is a photo of a tiny group of people that meets regularly up in Oslo, and when they do, they can't stop laughing :

 

 

[Link]

 

Soon, POTUS will likely call them all nasty persons or something. []

Edited July 13, 2025 by John Hjorth

[changegonnacome]

4 hours ago, cubsfan said:

Say what you like. Iran looks totally feckless, totally incompetent - like the Keystone Cops. How easily did the Israelis infiltrate ever aspect of their military, nuclear program and IRCG?  The Iranians look like buffoons - and their top level of military leaders & nuclear scientist killed with easy and efficiency. 

 

The paper tiger has been totally humiliated and defeated.

 

Iran is the laughing stock of the Middle East.

 

I'd say the following - for somebody to be defeated it means somebody must have been victorious.

 

John Mearsheimar covered this quite ably recently - Israel entered into conflict with Iran on June 13th with two overt strategic aims & one covert strategic aim (which is up for debate, the first two arent). Any "victory" needs to be measured by achievement of ones strategic goals....Israel's goals explicitly stated were:

 

(1) to end Iran's nuclear program &

(2) to institute internal regime change (the operation was called Rising Lion afterall!)

 

I'll add the third....unstated but quite clear I believe to seasoned observers of the ME -

 

(3) to pull the United States into the conflict

 

So lets judge Israel's success or victory by the correct yardstick which isn't "humiliation" but rather the achievement of their strategic military goals when the operation started on June 12th >

 

(1) Iran's nuclear capability has not been ended - in fact it has been moved underground and out IAEA sight. They likely rue their mistake not to pursue a nuclear weapon at the same time N.Korea did and are now racing towards a bomb.

 

Israel has FAILED on this count.

 

(2) Turns out bombing an indigenous people evens ones who dont like their rulling elite - did not start an uprising but rather caused a rally around the flag effect. The Iranian regime Israel sought to overthrow enjoys, by all accounts, wider and deeper public support today than it did a month ago.

 

Israel has FAILED in its regime change objectives.

 

(3) on this, which is a matter of conjecture, one must agree that Bibi has succeeded mighty here......Trump speaks of "we" now when before he spoke of Israel and Iran.......Israel & the United States are now locked in a box together going off Niagra Falls as it pertain to Iran.....it is exactly as Bibi (& Xi & Putin) would have wished it to be.

 

4 hours ago, cubsfan said:

The paper tiger has been totally humiliated and defeated.

 

What I described above is not what defeat of Iran looks like @cubsfan & conversely there was no victory for Israel here either.....why do you think Bibi was in the WH last week strategizing with Trump...because this isn't over.

 

4 hours ago, cubsfan said:

The Iranians look like buffoons

 

Contrary to popular narrative Israel does not come out of this 12 day war with some kind of invincibility aura. Iran suffered deeply embarrassing military blow but so too did Israel. 

 

The 'myth' of the Iron Dome has been shattered - Israel was on the receiving end of a barrage of missile attacks that did significant damage to its cities and infrastructure and which pierced with relative ease the Iron dome and what was stopped was stopped with huge expenditure of intercepter rockets that at the end of a short 12 day conflict were perilously close to completely running out leaving Israel wide open.

 

The Iran attacks saw to it that between June 12th and June 23rd Israel was essentially shut down - nationwide closures of schools, workplaces, business gatherings. Only essential services (e.g., healthcare, utilities, emergency) were allowed to operate.

 

Iran a country of 90m people, $400bn GDP with oil revenues coming from a state we can't control (China) and with the same soft support from China/Russia is a clear and present danger to Israel a country of 9.5m people geographically confined to what is a small place (& so militarily vulnerable).....Iran alone and most certainly with industrial assistance from China and Russia could bombard and essentially shut down Israel for months on end crippling its economy and laying waste to it cities....as it did already for 12 days. Iran I'm afraid when you dial down the rhetoric is a formidable security threat to Israel even hobbled and reeling from the surprise attacks of June 12th.

 

Dont be fooled by neocon talking points re:Iranian weakness its a primrose path designed to lure the US into a surely 'easy' conflict @cubsfan......sure senior folks in Iran we're killed with amazing precision by Israel.....but decapitation strategies are not victories...everybody is replaceable.....who's to say the replacement of the the Iranian leaders killed are not MORE competent than their predecessors. 

 

This type of 'defeated' rhetoric is exactly the type of language that lures the US public into ever increasing military commitments in a conflict that is fundamentally 5,500 miles away.

 

Edited July 13, 2025 by changegonnacome

[73 Reds]

12 hours ago, cubsfan said:

 

Say what you like. Iran looks totally feckless, totally incompetent - like the Keystone Cops. How easily did the Israelis infiltrate ever aspect of their military, nuclear program and IRCG?  The Iranians look like buffoons - and their top level of military leaders & nuclear scientist killed with easy and efficiency. 

 

The paper tiger has been totally humiliated and defeated.

 

Iran is the laughing stock of the Middle East.

Yep, people miss that when their sole focus is on hating Trump.  To John's point, nothing is ever permanent in a changing world but we do what we can now to stop immediate threats and hopefully set a different path for the future.  Why is this so hard to understand?  

Edited July 13, 2025 by 73 Reds
spelling

[dwy000]

1 hour ago, 73 Reds said:

Yep, people miss that when their sole focus is on hating Trump.  To John's point, nothing is ever permanent in a changing world but we do what we can now to stop immediate threats and hopefully set a different path for the future.  Why is this so hard to understand?  

This has been the case throughout history.  Hitler literally wrote a book on what he intended to do and the world refused to do anything - even after he invaded Poland.  

 

But pre-emptive action has always been politically undesirable.  Why send your kids to die to stop something that people disagree is going to happen?  And you could be wrong (Iraq and WMD's).  Its hard enough to get political backing to support Ukraine and that invasion has already happened and doesnt need our boots on ground.  Should we pre-emptively strike North Korea and risk a massive loss of life to prevent a potentially even worse outcome that may never happen?  Unless the outcome is inevitable (which nobody will ever agree on) people always prefer to wait. 

[cubsfan]

12 hours ago, changegonnacome said:

 

I'd say the following - for somebody to be defeated it means somebody must have been victorious.

 

John Mearsheimar covered this quite ably recently - Israel entered into conflict with Iran on June 13th with two overt strategic aims & one covert strategic aim (which is up for debate, the first two arent). Any "victory" needs to be measured by achievement of ones strategic goals....Israel's goals explicitly stated were:

 

(1) to end Iran's nuclear program &

(2) to institute internal regime change (the operation was called Rising Lion afterall!)

 

I'll add the third....unstated but quite clear I believe to seasoned observers of the ME -

 

(3) to pull the United States into the conflict

 

So lets judge Israel's success or victory by the correct yardstick which isn't "humiliation" but rather the achievement of their strategic military goals when the operation started on June 12th >

 

(1) Iran's nuclear capability has not been ended - in fact it has been moved underground and out IAEA sight. They likely rue their mistake not to pursue a nuclear weapon at the same time N.Korea did and are now racing towards a bomb.

 

Israel has FAILED on this count.

 

(2) Turns out bombing an indigenous people evens ones who dont like their rulling elite - did not start an uprising but rather caused a rally around the flag effect. The Iranian regime Israel sought to overthrow enjoys, by all accounts, wider and deeper public support today than it did a month ago.

 

Israel has FAILED in its regime change objectives.

 

(3) on this, which is a matter of conjecture, one must agree that Bibi has succeeded mighty here......Trump speaks of "we" now when before he spoke of Israel and Iran.......Israel & the United States are now locked in a box together going off Niagra Falls as it pertain to Iran.....it is exactly as Bibi (& Xi & Putin) would have wished it to be.

 

 

What I described above is not what defeat of Iran looks like @cubsfan & conversely there was no victory for Israel here either.....why do you think Bibi was in the WH last week strategizing with Trump...because this isn't over.

 

 

Contrary to popular narrative Israel does not come out of this 12 day war with some kind of invincibility aura. Iran suffered deeply embarrassing military blow but so too did Israel. 

 

The 'myth' of the Iron Dome has been shattered - Israel was on the receiving end of a barrage of missile attacks that did significant damage to its cities and infrastructure and which pierced with relative ease the Iron dome and what was stopped was stopped with huge expenditure of intercepter rockets that at the end of a short 12 day conflict were perilously close to completely running out leaving Israel wide open.

 

The Iran attacks saw to it that between June 12th and June 23rd Israel was essentially shut down - nationwide closures of schools, workplaces, business gatherings. Only essential services (e.g., healthcare, utilities, emergency) were allowed to operate.

 

Iran a country of 90m people, $400bn GDP with oil revenues coming from a state we can't control (China) and with the same soft support from China/Russia is a clear and present danger to Israel a country of 9.5m people geographically confined to what is a small place (& so militarily vulnerable).....Iran alone and most certainly with industrial assistance from China and Russia could bombard and essentially shut down Israel for months on end crippling its economy and laying waste to it cities....as it did already for 12 days. Iran I'm afraid when you dial down the rhetoric is a formidable security threat to Israel even hobbled and reeling from the surprise attacks of June 12th.

 

Dont be fooled by neocon talking points re:Iranian weakness its a primrose path designed to lure the US into a surely 'easy' conflict @cubsfan......sure senior folks in Iran we're killed with amazing precision by Israel.....but decapitation strategies are not victories...everybody is replaceable.....who's to say the replacement of the the Iranian leaders killed are not MORE competent than their predecessors. 

 

This type of 'defeated' rhetoric is exactly the type of language that lures the US public into ever increasing military commitments in a conflict that is fundamentally 5,500 miles away.

 

 

I'll agree with you that Iran has not been "defeated" - but they have a taste of what is to come if they continue down this path. 

 

Iran has certainly been humiliated and wounded very badly. No losses to the USA or Israel, in terms of military. And when you kill so many leaders instead of soldiers the assassination message is clear: FAFO.

 

This was a stunning victory. Iran has no friends left. One of the worst things you can do in the Middle East is suffer humiliation- which Iran has.  Iran's proxies have been decapitated: Hezbollah, Hamas, Houtis, and Assad flees to Russia.

 

This has been a devastating humiliation for Iran. The Ayatollah is lucky to be alive.

 

In no way is this anything but an enormous setback for Iran.

[73 Reds]

1 hour ago, dwy000 said:

This has been the case throughout history.  Hitler literally wrote a book on what he intended to do and the world refused to do anything - even after he invaded Poland.  

 

But pre-emptive action has always been politically undesirable.  Why send your kids to die to stop something that people disagree is going to happen?  And you could be wrong (Iraq and WMD's).  Its hard enough to get political backing to support Ukraine and that invasion has already happened and doesnt need our boots on ground.  Should we pre-emptively strike North Korea and risk a massive loss of life to prevent a potentially even worse outcome that may never happen?  Unless the outcome is inevitable (which nobody will ever agree on) people always prefer to wait. 

It is always a matter of degree.  When fundamental, religious nuts publicly vow for the destruction of their enemies the issue is cut and dry.  No Americans were injured or killed and more importantly there was almost no chance that any harm would come to us since Iran's Air defenses had already been neutralized.   Can anyone legitimately argue that a preemptive strike on the threat of nuclear weapons in the hands of Iranian leadership was not warranted here?   People on a financial board like COBF should certainly understand risk/reward.  

[dwy000]

2 minutes ago, 73 Reds said:

It is always a matter of degree.  When fundamental, religious nuts publicly vow for the destruction of their enemies the issue is cut and dry.  No Americans were injured or killed and more importantly there was almost no chance that any harm would come to us since Iran's Air defenses had already been neutralized.   Can anyone legitimately argue that a preemptive strike on the threat of nuclear weapons in the hands of Iranian leadership was not warranted here?   People on a financial board like COBF should certainly understand risk/reward.  

That was exactly the argument for Iraq and WMD's.  And the exact same arguments can be made even more strongly for North Korea with an even nuttier leader and with existing nukes. 

 

I agree its a matter of degrees but this is one where we could have sat back and let Israel do all the hard work (both militarily and politically).  The US is now militarily involved, didnt eliminate the problem and in fact may have made it worse. 

[73 Reds]

Just now, dwy000 said:

That was exactly the argument for Iraq and WMD's.  And the exact same arguments can be made even more strongly for North Korea with an even nuttier leader and with existing nukes. 

 

I agree its a matter of degrees but this is one where we could have sat back and let Israel do all the hard work (both militarily and politically).  The US is now militarily involved, didnt eliminate the problem and in fact may have made it worse. 

Nah; there is a stark difference between Iran and North Korea.  One does not value life and holds to an ideology of death and destruction.  No comparison whatsoever.

[changegonnacome]

1 hour ago, dwy000 said:

but this is one where we could have sat back and let Israel do all the hard work (both militarily and politically).  The US is now militarily involved, didnt eliminate the problem and in fact may have made it worse. 

 

in a nice nutshell....I'd add something else that folks should be acutely aware of....which is while we fight Bibi's neighborhood quarrels for him in the Middle East.....in the East East....a global power is rising the likes of which the US has never had to deal with in its time as the Global top dog......the Soviet Union, it turned out, was in many ways a Potemkin village of a peer competitor to the US......when it fell we discovered just how weak it was internally (technologically, economically) and how flawed its political system was relative to ours in terms of dynamism/innovation..........China may be a Potemkin village of a peer competitor......but it doesn't seem so to me........look at these Chinese EV's, drones, semi-conductors, lithography progress, space program, ship building, belt & road, rare earths, solar/wind installed capacity, robotics.......scared enough??

 

You should be.......time for the US under Obama/Biden AND now Trump to stop dicking around in the Middle East like an ADHD teenage.......and keep the eyes on the security prize...keep the main thing, the main thing......we need to figure out how to contain China from expanding out from that first Island chain and fast.

 

Edited July 13, 2025 by changegonnacome

[dwy000]

1 hour ago, 73 Reds said:

Nah; there is a stark difference between Iran and North Korea.  One does not value life and holds to an ideology of death and destruction.  No comparison whatsoever.

Which one is that?  North Korea is literally selling soldiers to Russia and starving its people.  The survival of their leadership depends upon threatening the West. 

[whiskybravo]

4 hours ago, cubsfan said:

 

I'll agree with you that Iran has not been "defeated" - but they have a taste of what is to come if they continue down this path. 

 

Iran has certainly been humiliated and wounded very badly. No losses to the USA or Israel, in terms of military. And when you kill so many leaders instead of soldiers the assassination message is clear: FAFO.

 

This was a stunning victory. Iran has no friends left. One of the worst things you can do in the Middle East is suffer humiliation- which Iran has.  Iran's proxies have been decapitated: Hezbollah, Hamas, Houtis, and Assad flees to Russia.

 

This has been a devastating humiliation for Iran. The Ayatollah is lucky to be alive.

 

In no way is this anything but an enormous setback for Iran.

Nailed it concisely.

[changegonnacome]

22 hours ago, cubsfan said:

I'll agree with you that Iran has not been "defeated" - but they have a taste of what is to come if they continue down this path. 

 

And so has Israel hence why the United States is so intertwined now in the conflict....the 12 day war showed that in a toe-to-toe conflict with Iran....Israel is actually incapable of defending itself from Iran over a long period of time without serious military intervention from the United States........read the reports from Haaretz....Iran did huge damage to Israel and shut the country down for two weeks......you have some naive asymmetric view of a war between Israel vs. Iran...that it would somehow be a cakewalk because Israel is so strong and Iran is so weak....its just not the case....

 

Israel was days away from running out of interceptor missiles for their iron dome before the cease fire.....the lazy analysis is Iran needed the ceasefire.....the reality is they both needed the ceasefire Israel as much as Iran....the reality as Bibi knows well and why he's been to the White House three times in six months now is that Israel isnt as strong as you think it is....it is totally dependent on the United States in an escalatory war with Iran.....the narrative around Israel, the invincible, is a dangerous one because in reality what your really articulating is a combined 'Israel + the USA'....which entails huge military commitments on our part and something that starts to look like America's next forever war.

 

Edited July 14, 2025 by changegonnacome

[cubsfan]

24 minutes ago, changegonnacome said:

 

And so has Israel hence why the United States is so intertwined now in the conflict....the 12 day war showed that in a toe-to-toe conflict with Iran....Israel is actually incapable of defending itself from Iran over a long period of time without serious military intervention from the United States........read the reports from Haaretz....Iran did huge damage to Israel and shut the country down for two weeks......you have some naive asymmetric view of a war between Israel vs. Iran...that it would somehow be a cakewalk because Israel is so strong and Iran is so weak....its just not the case....

 

Israel was days away from running out of interceptor missiles for their iron dome before the cease fire.....the lazy analysis is Iran needed the ceasefire.....the reality is they both needed the ceasefire Israel as much as Iran....the reality as Bibi knows well and why he's been to the White House three times in six months now is that Israel isnt as strong as you think it is....it is totally dependent on the United States in an escalatory war with Iran.....the narrative around Israel, the invincible, is a dangerous one because in reality what your really articulating is a combined 'Israel + the USA'....which entails huge military commitments on our part and something that starts to look like America's next forever war.

 

 

Yes, yes,yes - Israel is in the fight of it's life. No doubt about it. The very foolish Iranians underestimated Israeli intelligence and military. The are welcome to keep sacrificing their leaders and proxies - for which they have no answer.

 

The USA will continue to sell them all the arms they like - and deliver a few bunker busters with the Ayatollah's name on it - if it comes to that.

 

It certainly works for me - and the rest of the world will cheer to have gravely damaged the world's largest terrorist state.

[changegonnacome]

33 minutes ago, cubsfan said:

The are welcome to keep sacrificing their leaders and proxies - for which they have no answer.

 

You've missed my point - they did have answer....one you keep ignoring and acting like Israel suffered no consequences for its attack....Iran with aerial bombardment shut down Israel completely and utterly for 12 days straight.....with the Iron Dome interceptor missiles 'in-stock' they we're unable to stop Iran doing significant damage to their cities and ports.....and came perilously close to running out of interceptor missiles after only twelve days....so you know if Iran was doing serious damage to Israeli cities with a functioning Iron Dome you might explain to me what Israeli cities would look like if the Iron Dome stopped functioning? 

 

33 minutes ago, cubsfan said:

The USA will continue to sell them all the arms they like - and deliver a few bunker busters with the Ayatollah's name on it - if it comes to that.

 

We've had many discussions re:Ukraine and the outrageous costs that the US taxpayer has underwritten in that conflict.......you say "sell Israeli all the arms they like".....you do realize where the money is coming from to buy those arms?....already Israel's fiscal position is in serious trouble after all their expenditures in Gaza, West Bank and fighting proxies.... and top of which now Israel's economy was shut down for 12 days straight in June and billions of dollars of damage done by Iran to Israeli infrastructure......where do you think the money is coming from to buy arms from us moving forward? Yep you got.... Its coming from us.....in this first phase of the conflict it may not look like a 'forever war' cause no US soldiers are coming back through Dover Air Force base (yet)........but in terms of financial payments already made since Oct 7th and obligations accruing in the background it is starting to have forever war-like price tag....which could so easily (when you factor in overt cost plus oil & the damaged to the global) have a forever war price tag that could make Iraq and Afghanistan look cheap....most especially given the fact the US itself is in a perilous fiscal position running 7% deficits....the US can ill afford a middle east boondoggle led by Bibi.

 

In a world of infinite resources and no rising peer competitor in China.....I would get behind a 'backing Israel to the hilt' approach.....I love the country and its people......but its in the best interest of the United States now to shut down and freeze this Israel-Iran war....and focus on China.

 

Edited July 14, 2025 by changegonnacome

[73 Reds]

10 minutes ago, changegonnacome said:

 

You've missed my point - they did have answer....one you keep ignoring and acting like Israel suffered no consequences for its attack....Iran with aerial bombardment shut down Israel completely and utterly for 12 days straight.....with the Iron Dome interceptor missiles 'in-stock' they we're unable to stop Iran doing significant damage to their cities and ports.....and came perilously close to running out of interceptor missiles after only twelve days....so you know if Iran was doing serious damage to Israeli cities with a functioning Iron Dome you might explain to me what Israeli cities would look like if the Iron Dome stopped functioning? 

 

 

We've had many discussions re:Ukraine and the outrageous costs that the US taxpayer has underwritten in that conflict.......you say "sell Israeli all the arms they like".....you do realize where the money is coming from to buy those arms?....already Israel's fiscal position is in serious trouble after all their expenditures in Gaza, West Bank and fighting proxies.... and top of which now Israel's economy was shut down for 12 days straight in June and billions of dollars of damage done by Iran to Israeli infrastructure......where do you think the money is coming from to buy arms from us moving forward? Yep you got.... Its coming from us.....in this first phase of the conflict it may not look like a 'forever war' cause no US soldiers are coming back through Dover Air Force base (yet)........but in terms of financial payments already made since Oct 7th and obligations accruing in the background it is starting to have forever war-like price tag....which could so easily (when you factor in overt cost plus oil & the damaged to the global) have a forever war price tag that could make Iraq and Afghanistan look cheap....most especially given the fact the US itself is in a perilous fiscal position running 7% deficits....the US can ill afford a middle east boondoggle led by Bibi.

 

In a world of infinite resources and no rising peer competitor in China.....I would get behind a 'backing Israel to the hilt' approach.....I love the country and its people......but its in the best interest of the United States now to shut down and freeze this Israel-Iran war....and focus on China.

 

Simply, no - to your entire post - for far too many reason to expound on in an investment forum.  Israel will do whatever it takes to protect its own survival.  The rest of the World be damned (including the US if necessary).  But It wasn't even close to being pushed to doing so in the past month, largely because most of the World sides with Israel in this conflict.  To its credit, the US understands the importance of its lasting relationship with Israel, which is far more valuable that any of the supposed immediate "costs".  Just for kicks, take a look at how many large US based companies have offices and bases in Israel.  If you ever get to Israel go for a ride through the heart of Tel Aviv - you might as well be in Miami except Miami doesn't house a good number of high tech companies along with plenty of Israeli-based enterprises.  Israel's economy is far more vibrant than you think and has been dealing with attacks from its neighbors since it first became a State in 1948.  That is precisely the issue and they've had enough.        

[changegonnacome]

43 minutes ago, 73 Reds said:

Israel's economy is far more vibrant than you think

 

I have been to Israel many times, up thread you will have seen me say it is remarkable country and what they have done there in 70yrs+ years is just an astounding achievement

 

However they are a small country of 9.5m people........they are running ~6% fiscal deficits and this was before their whole economy was shut down for half a month and who knows how many billions of property/infrastructure damage done by Iran.....Israel is remarkable place but they not the global reserve currency, they are not large superpower with infinite resources....a war of attrition with Iran a country of 95m people would not work out well for Israel even with US support......Bibi's escalation strategy with Iran has been and is predicated on US involvement..his bet has so far has worked out....

 

However the American public is fickle and by extension so is US political support...........indeed one can see the demographic divide in Congress and in the public regarding support for Israel....for boomers infinite US support for Israel is unquestioned, it is dogma.....below and for an increasing number of young people they have no idea why so much support is given to a country 5,500 miles......Bibi understand this, he is a political genius who can see around corners......he is making a run at Iran (to which you can add Gaza, West Bank, Houthis, Hezbollah, Lebanon) now not because he thinks Israel can somehow defeat Iran on their own....he is making a run at Iran as the 2020's may the last decade where an Israeli Prime Minister could count on unequivocal US support for any action.....this IMO is leading to reckless decision making by Bibi and his war cabinet to which you can layer on his own legal problems waiting for him if/when he leaves office.

 

So putting aside discrete US interests.....it is not IMO in the interest of Israel to pursue escalation so aggressively with Iran .....Bibi's everything all at once approach here is a go for broke strategy that could get Israel wrecked in the process (while I admit that like in every situation it has a probability of working out magically for Israel where with US help Israel could see Iran hobbled for decades and the regime in Tehran overthrown).....so I dont discount that at all (would love to see it in fact in a perfect world but the world isnt perfect, your enemy fights back, unexpected things happen).....but probabilistically when I weigh things up...... most especially after seeing Iranian ballistic missile capabilities during the 12-day war (read: the Iron Dome is not invincible) I think Bibi (genius though he is) has misjudged this one. So you know I know folks love to put people in boxes these days....anti-Israel, TDS.....its a lazy out to avoid cognitive dissonance to closely held views.....though I will admit that I do see TDS on the left the whole time so it is a real phenomenon.

Edited July 14, 2025 by changegonnacome

[Marco Van Basten]

@changegonnacome, Israel was not running 6% deficits as a % of GDP before Oct 7th of 2023.  Deficits are normal in war time, and if you check deficit forecast for say 2026, it is under 3%.  Similarly, to say the cost of supporting Israel's war with Iran will exceed the cost of Iraq or Afghan war is hard to understand.  Both cost over a trillion dollars, did the US spend more than $20bn on supporting Israel since Oct 7th of 2023?

[changegonnacome]

6 minutes ago, Marco Van Basten said:

Israel was not running 6% deficits as a % of GDP before Oct 7th of 2023.

 

Never said that.... I said 6% referring to 2025 deficit....and that 6% israeli estimate is before the 12 day country wide shutdown due to the 12 day war + the cost of re-building damaged buildings etc.

 

From Haaretz:

 

"Chilling Maps Show: Iran's Missiles Obliterated Israeli Neighborhoods

From Tamra to Tel Aviv and further south, Israeli engineers' maps show how a shock wave from Iran's ballistic missiles can be as ruinous as a direct hit The Israel Tax Authority has received applications for financial assistance for nearly 33,000 damaged structures"

 

https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/2025-06-30/ty-article-magazine/.premium/chilling-maps-show-irans-missiles-obliterated-israeli-neighborhoods/00000197-c0b4-dddf-a7ff-c6be957d0000

[Marco Van Basten]

1 hour ago, changegonnacome said:

 

Never said that.... I said 6% referring to 2025 deficit....and that 6% israeli estimate is before the 12 day country wide shutdown due to the 12 day war + the cost of re-building damaged buildings etc.

 

From Haaretz:

 

"Chilling Maps Show: Iran's Missiles Obliterated Israeli Neighborhoods

From Tamra to Tel Aviv and further south, Israeli engineers' maps show how a shock wave from Iran's ballistic missiles can be as ruinous as a direct hit The Israel Tax Authority has received applications for financial assistance for nearly 33,000 damaged structures"

 

https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/2025-06-30/ty-article-magazine/.premium/chilling-maps-show-irans-missiles-obliterated-israeli-neighborhoods/00000197-c0b4-dddf-a7ff-c6be957d0000

Okay, but the 2026 deficit is projected to be at 2.9%, high, but manageable.  The question is what will happen in the future, and unless you assume constant war, why worry?

[changegonnacome]

4 minutes ago, Marco Van Basten said:

Okay, but the 2026 deficit is projected to be at 2.9%, high, but manageable.  The question is what will happen in the future, and unless you assume constant war, why worry?

 

https://www.calcalistech.com/ctechnews/article/7k547fv7c

 

"The Israeli government is expected to exceed its own deficit ceiling for the third consecutive year. According to estimates from capital markets both in Israel and abroad, the budget deficit in 2025 could surpass 6% of GDP, significantly higher than the 4.9% ceiling set by the government."

 

We are now three years into the various conflicts:

 

Deficit -

2023 - 5.1%

2024 - 8.3%

2025 - ~6.5% (E)...I'll take the over on this

 

I point all this out - only to say the following - Israel's deficit, if history is a lesson, ends up as foreign aid issued from Congress in D.C..its been this way for decades...it is also to say that those who think Israel can fight Iran and fund the costs of it over a long sustained period of time (as great as Israel is) without DEEP DEEP financial and military assistance from the United States are naive. Again i say all these as risk factors for the US for getting entrenched in this situation....yes we are not at trillions.....but over a 10yr period of 12 day war-lite like hostilities between Iran and Israel..... the US could easily find itself on the hook for hundreds of billions of direct costs (aid, weapons etc.) and if Iran decided to pull the Strait of Hormuz lever one could see hundred of billions more in damage to the global economy. 

 

When you get down to it........Planet Earth + the United States has a vested interest in shutting down this conflict and freezing it.......except Bibi doesn't for the reasons I gave you abouve......and in an upside down world......the Bibi tail is wagging the United States dog.....all while we should have tripled down on East Asia by now.