Political Posts

[John Hjorth]

On 9/5/2024 at 4:29 AM, UK said:

https://www.reuters.com/world/lavrov-warns-us-not-mock-russias-red-lines-2024-09-04/

 

A new day, a new warning on red lines.

 

On 9/5/2024 at 4:47 AM, Spekulatius said:

Always good to hear that Russia is warning about red lines. It means they are hurting and we are on the right track. Ukraine needs long range missiles to destroy the Russian logistics infrastructure that supports their troops.

 

@UK & @Spekulatius,

 

Again :

 

Reuters [September 11^th 2024] : Kremlin warns of escalation if US allows Kyiv to hit Russia with long-range missiles.

Edited September 12, 2024 by John Hjorth

[UK]

6 hours ago, John Hjorth said:

 

 

@UK & @Spekulatius,

 

Again :

 

Reuters [September 11^th 2024] : Kremlin warns of escalation if US allows Kyiv to hit Russia with long-range missiles.

 

Thanks. Well it seems they really do not like the idea this time: 

 

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/putin-says-west-will-be-fighting-directly-with-russia-if-it-lets-kyiv-use-long-2024-09-12/.

 

And honestly I have no idea what would be the best way forward, but I think odds are perhaps better than 50/50, it is only some loud barking one more time?

 

Edited September 13, 2024 by UK

[Hektor]

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/13/world/asia/china-retirement-age.html

 

China Raises Retirement Age for the First Time Since the 1950s

The move, made in the hope of addressing an aging population, was decidedly unpopular.

 

This is the first time China has raised its retirement age since the 1950s. It will be phased in gradually, starting on Jan. 1, 2025. The retirement age for men, previously 60, will increase in increments of several months before finally reaching 63 by 2040. The retirement age for women in white-collar jobs, previously 55, will rise to 58. Women in blue-collar jobs, who previously could retire at 50, will have to work until 55.

[hillfronter83]

https://www.ft.com/content/1e9e7544-974c-4662-a901-d30c4ab56eb7

 

 

[rogermunibond]

That FT article is pretty inaccurate.

 

[Hektor]

15 minutes ago, hillfronter83 said:

https://www.ft.com/content/1e9e7544-974c-4662-a901-d30c4ab56eb7

I feel this might be a fall out of the gov cutting Ma to size. People with the means would look to take them elsewhere. Doing so has been the norm for ages.

[hillfronter83]

32 minutes ago, rogermunibond said:

That FT article is pretty inaccurate.

 

 

It seems that FT reported data from ITJUZI and the founder got a call from government :). Of course the data is probably not complete. But there is no doubt it is the trend for the last a few years. Jack Ma is still not back in China. Bloomberg reported some bankers got detained and passports are taken away from bank employees. On top of that, I saw some places real estate price is back to more than 10 years ago and there is no sight of bottom. Things will get worse before they get any better.

[John Hjorth]

Now, what [the ****] do you do, when you wake up in the middle of the night, just by routine checking our phone, your Facebook app then asking you if you have just tried to log on near Neresnytsya, Ukraine?

 

-You do nothing, but just thinking, 'thank God I'm here, and not i'n '[th]ere!''

[Luke]

WAR AND THEFT THE TAKEOVER OF UKRAINE’S AGRICULTURAL LAND

 

 

 

The war in Ukraine has been at the center stage of foreign policy and media reports since February 2022. Little attention, however, has been given to a major issue, which is at the core of the conflict – who controls the agricultural land in the country known as the “breadbasket of Europe?” This report addresses this gap – identifying the interests controlling Ukraine’s agricultural land and presenting an analysis of the dynamics at play around land tenure in the country. This includes the highly controversial land reform that took place in 2021 as part of the structural adjustment program initiated under the auspices of Western financial institutions, after the installation of a pro-European Union (EU) government following the Maidan Revolution in 2014. With 33 million hectares of arable land, Ukraine has large swaths of the most fertile farmland in the world.1 Misguided privatization and corrupt governance since the early 1990s have concentrated land in the hands of a new oligarchic class. Around 4.3 million hectares are under large-scale agriculture, with the bulk, three million hectares, in the hands of just a dozen large agribusiness firms.2 In addition, according to the government, about five million hectares – the size of two Crimea – have been “stolen” by private interests from the state of Ukraine.3 The total amount of land controlled by oligarchs, corrupt individuals, and large agribusinesses is thus over nine million hectares, exceeding 28 percent of the country’s arable land. The rest is used by over eight million Ukrainian farmers.4 The largest landholders are a mix of oligarchs and a variety of foreign interests – mostly European and North American, including a US-based private equity fund and the sovereign fund of Saudi Arabia. All but one of the ten largest landholding firms are registered overseas, mainly in tax havens such as Cyprus or Luxembourg. Even when run and still largely controlled by an oligarch founder, a number of firms have gone public with Western banks and investment funds now controlling a significant amount of their shares.

 

This international financing directly benefits oligarchs, several of whom face accusations of fraud and corrupt dealings, as well as the foreign funds and firms associated as shareholders or creditors. Meanwhile, Ukrainian farmers have had to operate with limited amounts of land and financing, and many are now on the verge of poverty. Data shows that these farmers receive virtually no support compared to agribusinesses and oligarchs.

 

In recent years, Western countries and institutions have provided massive military and economic assistance to Ukraine, which became the top recipient of US foreign aid – marking the first time since the Marshall Plan that a European country holds this top spot.7 As of December 2022, less than one year into the war, the US has allocated over US$113 billion to Ukraine, including US$65 billion of military aid,8 which is more than the entire budget of the State Department and USAID globally (US$58 billion).9

[Luke]

The report details how Western aid has been conditioned to a drastic structural adjustment program, which includes austerity measures, cuts in social safety nets, and the privatization of key sectors of the economy. A central condition has been the creation of a land market, put into law in 2020 under President Zelenskyy, despite opposition from a majority of Ukrainians fearing that it will exacerbate corruption in the agricultural sector and reinforce its control by powerful interests. The findings of the report validate this concern, showing that the creation of a land market will likely further increase the amount of agricultural land in the hands of oligarchs and large agribusiness firms. The latter have already started expanding their access to land. Kernel has announced plans to increase its land bank to 700,000 hectares – up from 506,000 hectares in 2021.10 Similarly, MHP, which currently controls 360,000 hectares of land, seeks to expand its holdings to 550,000 hectares.11 MHP is also reportedly circumventing restrictions on the purchase of land by asking its employees to buy land and lease it to the company.12

 

By contrast, small scale farmers in Ukraine demonstrate resilience and a great potential for leading the expansion of a different production model based on agroecology, environmental sustainability, and the production of healthy food.14 It is Ukraine’s small and medium-sized farmers who guarantee the country’s food security whereas large agribusinesses are geared towards export markets

 

Today, thousands of rural boys and girls, farmers, are fighting and dying in the war. They have lost everything. The processes of free land sale and purchase are increasingly liberalized and advertised. This really threatens the rights of Ukrainians to their land, for which they give their lives.”16

 

FIRE SALE IN UKRAINE!!: 

 

 

https://privatization.gov.ua/en/product-category/mala-pryvatyzatsiya-en/

[Luke]

At a time of tremendous suffering and displacement, wherein countless lives have been lost and massive financial resources spent for the control of Ukraine, this report raises major concerns about the future of land and food production in the country, which is likely to become more consolidated and controlled by oligarchs and foreign interests. These concerns are exacerbated by Ukraine’s staggering and growing foreign debt, contracted at the expense of the population’s living conditions as a result of the measures required under the structural adjustment program. Ukraine is now the world’s third-largest debtor to the International Monetary Fund (IMF)17 and its crippling debt burden will likely result in additional pressure from its creditors, bondholders, and international financial institutions on how post-war reconstruction – estimated to cost US$750 billion – should happen.18

 

 

 

These powerful actors have already been explicit that they will use their leverage to further privatize the country’s public sector and liberalize its agriculture.19

 

What the IMF wants: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-09-04/ukraine-braces-for-imf-pressure-to-devalue-currency-cut-rates

 

 

 

 

[Luke]

Meanwhile everyone in the western world and media cheering for further war Selensky does a firesales to western investors and prepares Ukraine to be completely privatized and neoliberalized to foreign investors. Its so disgusting IMO that you hear absolutely nothing about these developements but only that the war needs to go on. 

 

Such a hypocrisy, ukraine gets empathy as long as they defend future investors assets. Its all about money and power again and nobody actually really gives a shit about the dead Ukrainian farmers etc

 

 

takeover-ukraine-agricultural-land.pdf

[Luke]

And of course, as a western financial institution you would want your assets to be protected by the peaceful NATO and get into the EU for trading benefits!

[Luke]

Never going to happen-->The end of the war should be the moment and opportunity for just the opposite, i.e. the redesign of an economic model no longer dominated by oligarchy and corruption, but where land and resources are controlled by and benefit all Ukrainians. This could form the basis for the transformation of the agricultural sector to make it more democratic and environmentally and socially sustainable. International policy and financial support should be geared towards this transformation, to benefit people and farmers rather than oligarchs and foreign financial interests.

 

You simply don't get any Western dollars or euros for free! 

 

 

 

[Luke]

After securing investments from prominent Western financial institutions, it channeled these funds through offshore companies located in tax havens like Cyprus and the Cayman Islands and into joint ventures with local firms to take over the land.72 The firm faces accusations of unlawful land acquisition, tax evasion, and illicit financial activity.73 NCH Capital played a key role in pushing for land reform in Ukraine: In 2015, its founder and CEO George Rohr was part of the high-level meetings involving the Ukrainian President and the US Secretary of Commerce that led Ukraine to agree on an IMF reform plan, as a condition for two US$1 billion loan guarantees from the US government.74

 

Those seem like nice guys! The best system in the world! Slava Ukraini! 

 

 

[John Hjorth]

On 9/12/2024 at 9:39 PM, John Hjorth said:

 

 

@UK & @Spekulatius,

 

Again :

 

Reuters [September 11^th 2024] : Kremlin warns of escalation if US allows Kyiv to hit Russia with long-range missiles.

 

On 9/13/2024 at 4:13 AM, UK said:

 

Thanks. Well it seems they really do not like the idea this time: 

 

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/putin-says-west-will-be-fighting-directly-with-russia-if-it-lets-kyiv-use-long-2024-09-12/.

 

And honestly I have no idea what would be the best way forward, but I think odds are perhaps better than 50/50, it is only some loud barking one more time?

 

 

Barrons - From AFP News [September 13^th 2024] : Biden Says 'I Don't Think Much About Putin,' After Russia War Threats .

 

It is a bit funny, actually ... almost like the former POTUS talking about the little 'rocket man'.  I guess Putin is fuming in his office over being ignored. -Is he worried about the risk exposure of his 'modest cottage' [read : flamboyant palace] ?

[Luke]

https://asiatimes.com/2024/09/biden-nato-effectively-declaring-war-on-russia/

[John Hjorth]

4 minutes ago, Luke said:

https://asiatimes.com/2024/09/biden-nato-effectively-declaring-war-on-russia/

 

And now we are back to the question : 'Who started this?' Putin won't dare, otherwise he will be swept away from the surface of this planet.

[Spekulatius]

18 minutes ago, Luke said:

https://asiatimes.com/2024/09/biden-nato-effectively-declaring-war-on-russia/

Thats an opinion piece, nothing more nothing less.

 

If what he states is true, then Iran and North Korea also have declared war.

 

All nonsense.

Edited September 14, 2024 by Spekulatius

[hillfronter83]

This is the statistics of retirement fund distribution in 2023 from a local county in China.

It basically says: RMB785 million for 8778 Government retirees at RMB89428/person; RMB369 million for 13220 SOE retirees at RMB27912/person; RMB251 million for 119400 other retirees at RMB2102/person.

 

There is a reason the Chinese system collapses every a few hundred years. 

 

[Spekulatius]

I mentioned Anta a few times and their recent result were quite impressive given the state of the Chinese consumer. Mid teens sales growth and a 25% profit margin are quite good.

 

Its not deep value , but if the business grows and the share price stagnates or worse, those business get cheaper and more interesting. I also think they have the wind at their back, because the Chinese consumer increasingly prefer Chinese goods/ brands over the likes of Nike etc.

https://manager.wisdomir.com/files/394/2024/0827/20240828095726_67345600_en.pdf

Edited September 16, 2024 by Spekulatius

[UK]

I am not sure Der Spegiel is serious source, but: https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-society/3906009-putin-consults-with-shamans-over-war-media.html

 

 

[Spekulatius]

10 hours ago, UK said:

I am not sure Der Spegiel is serious source, but: https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-society/3906009-putin-consults-with-shamans-over-war-media.html

 

 

Der Spiegel is legit, but I think the article in question was more or less from a freelance guest writer.

Edited September 16, 2024 by Spekulatius

[UK]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-09-17/ukraine-russia-ceasefire-kyiv-s-allies-start-to-look-at-how-it-could-work?srnd=homepage-europe

 

Ukrainians are strongly opposed to any territorial concessions, with 55% of respondents rejecting the idea in a poll released by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology in July. However, the number of those categorically against giving up land drops to 38% if Kyiv is granted NATO and European Union membership as part of the deal.

[UK]

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-targets-western-russian-regions-with-drones-russian-officials-says-2024-09-18/

 

Edited September 18, 2024 by UK