Political Posts

[Luke]

Edited August 27, 2024 by Luke

[Xerxes]

@Luke are you @luca

 

there was a gentleman with that handle who disappeared. With a Master Yoda avatar. 

[UK]

5 hours ago, Luke said:

 

This was meant as a joke, was not it:)?

 

If had one book of many about him to choose, this would be my recommendation: 'The Man Without a Face is the chilling account of how a low- level, small-minded KGB operative ascended to the Russian presidency and, in an astonishingly short time, destroyed years of progress and made his country once more a threat to her own people and to the world.'

 

It was written pre war IIRC.

 

Edited August 28, 2024 by UK

[Spekulatius]

On 8/25/2024 at 9:55 AM, Spekulatius said:

Interesting - I ran a screen for high dividend stocks in HK (>10% dividend yield as well as some quality and debt metrics and got a decent list). However ,I have not heard about any of these stocks. - does any of those look familiar?  I am sure there are some gems there but it’s very hard to do research from scratch in China.

	1171	Yankuang Energy Group Company Limited	HKG	1.18	12.62%	17.63%	1.30
	1378	China Hongqiao Group Limited	HKG	0.93	11.43%	6.25%	1.33
	9979	Greentown Management Holdings Company Limited	HKG	(1.77)	10.44%	18.92%	0.57
	777	NetDragon Websoft Holdings Limited	HKG	(0.70)	14.08%	7.93%	1.40
	1126	Dream International Limited	HKG	(1.09)	11.58%	20.60%	0.56
	1830	Perfect Medical Health Management Limited	HKG	(0.52)	12.30%	9.31%	0.30
	1571	Xin Point Holdings Limited	HKG	(0.57)	11.51%	9.64%	0.36
	6896	Golden Throat Holdings Group Company Limited	HKG	(1.76)	15.42%	15.96%	0.39
	9616	Neusoft Education Technology Co. Limited	HKG	1.13	12.12%	26.63%	0.33
	398	Oriental Watch Holdings Limited	HKG	(1.23)	15.47%	26.62%	0.42
	9908	JiaXing Gas Group Co., Ltd.	HKG	0.03	11.37%	7.26%	0.97
	1692	Town Ray Holdings Limited	HKG	(0.94)	10.75%	28.37%	0.32
	926	Besunyen Holdings Company Limited	HKG	2.09	50.14%	6.12%	0.46

 

 

 

From that bunch, I keep my eye on Netdragon 777. HK. It’s a gaming company. Seems or have  plenty of cash on the balance sheet and they pay a bi- annual dividend (almost 8% yield on those) plus a special dividend which pushes the yield above 10% but that is probably variable.

 

I love companies that pay special dividends as it shows they pay attention to capital allocation and rewarding shareholders. 777.HK reports entering later this week, so I will take a look at those and might buy sone shares.

 

It’s really quite cheap, has been growing and pays out very well. It’s my kind of stock.

Edited August 28, 2024 by Spekulatius

[UK]

https://www.reuters.com/world/russia-warns-united-states-risks-world-war-three-2024-08-27/

[Luke]

8 hours ago, UK said:

This was meant as a joke, was not it:)?

This was posted by the Russian embassy in Berlin a day ago! 

8 hours ago, UK said:

If had one book of many about him to choose, this would be my recommendation: 'The Man Without a Face is the chilling account of how a low- level, small-minded KGB operative ascended to the Russian presidency and, in an astonishingly short time, destroyed years of progress and made his country once more a threat to her own people and to the world.'

Mhh, I don't think that's a completely fair statement. Russia always had quite the level of corruption right, both in the Soviet Union but also after with Yeltsin. It was perceived that Putin was a west friendly, more easily controllable and oligarch friendly president which is why he made it where he made it. He must have seen quite a bit as president and seized a lot of control himself, including wealth. In order to shield yourself from the power of the oligarchs you sort of need to become oneself. Then I also don't know how much they know about western involvement in Ukraine and how serious of a threat that actually was. I wouldn't say Putin is bad per see and doesn't care about its country. Very interesting person and I also think we might be surprised in a few decades when more information gets to the surface what really happened under the hood in russia and in this conflict. 

[Luke]

That said, Russia has an insanely conservative/patriarchal manhood standard, as was posted before, in the military they quite literally beat young soldiers to death or they die during training. Then the legal system has pitfalls, corrupt etc. But that wasn't, IMO, necessarily caused by Putin. Now the war...very tough position for the country but I am following with interest both Ukraine and Russia/general Conflict. 

[John Hjorth]

13 hours ago, Xerxes said:

@Luke are you @luca

 

there was a gentleman with that handle who disappeared. With a Master Yoda avatar. 

 

@Xerxes,

 

Back in the middle of July, one day I had to recheck my meds [at that moment hooked on morphine], and I also carefully checked the bottle from which I had a glass - nothing wrong with those, so I asked Luke - the new guy around - the same question. 

 

It turns out that there were problems with multiple accounts due to some patch to the board so Luca asked Parsad to edit his user name to his nickname : Luke.

[Luke]

9 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

From that bunch, I keep my eye on Netdragon 777. HK. It’s a gaming company. Seems or have  plenty of cash on the balance sheet and they pay a de turn in- annual dividend (almost 8% yield on those) plus a special dividend which pushes the yield above 10% but that is probably variable.

 

I love companies that pay special dividends as it shows they pay attention to capital allocation and rewarding shareholders. 777.HK reports entering later this week, so I will take a look at those and might buy sone shares.

 

It’s really quite cheap, has been growing and pays out very well. It’s my kind of stock.

Edited August 28, 2024 by Luke

[Xerxes]

2 hours ago, John Hjorth said:

 

@Xerxes,

 

Back in the middle of July, one day I had to recheck my meds [at that moment hooked on morphine], and I also carefully checked the bottle from which I had a glass - nothing wrong with those, so I asked Luke - the new guy around - the same question. 

 

It turns out that there were problems with multiple accounts due to some patch to the board so Luca asked Parsad to edit his user name to his nickname : Luke.

Thanks John  

Luke did confirm to me as well vis PM. Good to have him back.

 

Though I hope his account is not taken over by some foreign entity masquerading as our Luca. 
 

 

[Xerxes]

Moonfish - F-16 - RIP

 

sad ! 

[Hektor]

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/china-considers-allowing-refinancing-5-035032297.html

 

China Considers Allowing Refinancing on $5.4 Trillion in Mortgages

 

Under the plan, homeowners would be able to renegotiate terms with their current lenders before January, when banks typically reprice mortgages, people familiar with the matter said, asking not to be identified discussing private information. They would also be allowed to refinance with a different bank for the first time since the global financial crisis, the people said.

 

If approved, it may serve to ease mortgage burdens faster than expected. While China has pushed average mortgage costs to a record low this year, most households haven’t benefited since banks won’t reprice existing loans until next year.

 

China’s outstanding amount of individual mortgages stood at 38.2 trillion yuan ($5.4 trillion) at the end of March, and count as prime assets at Chinese lenders. More than 90% of China’s outstanding mortgages were for first homes as of late 2021, according to the latest public data available from the banking regulator.

[Spekulatius]

39 minutes ago, Hektor said:

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/china-considers-allowing-refinancing-5-035032297.html

 

China Considers Allowing Refinancing on $5.4 Trillion in Mortgages

 

Under the plan, homeowners would be able to renegotiate terms with their current lenders before January, when banks typically reprice mortgages, people familiar with the matter said, asking not to be identified discussing private information. They would also be allowed to refinance with a different bank for the first time since the global financial crisis, the people said.

 

If approved, it may serve to ease mortgage burdens faster than expected. While China has pushed average mortgage costs to a record low this year, most households haven’t benefited since banks won’t reprice existing loans until next year.

 

China’s outstanding amount of individual mortgages stood at 38.2 trillion yuan ($5.4 trillion) at the end of March, and count as prime assets at Chinese lenders. More than 90% of China’s outstanding mortgages were for first homes as of late 2021, according to the latest public data available from the banking regulator.

The  banks are taking a bath here with lower interest income, possibly followed by cuts in principal later. I think China going to japanize their financial system.

[UK]

4 hours ago, Spekulatius said:

The  banks are taking a bath here with lower interest income, possibly followed by cuts in principal later. I think China going to japanize their financial system.

 

Well, Xi/CCP always talks a lot and seems to prefer 'stability' against some sudden cleaning of the system (crash) or dealing with the problems in some other ways quickly, and they already have a track record of doing this, so this very well might be a right call.

 

Edited August 30, 2024 by UK

[Spekulatius]

On 8/30/2024 at 2:46 PM, UK said:

 

Well, Xi/CCP always talks a lot and seems to prefer 'stability' against some sudden cleaning of the system (crash) or dealing with the problems in some other ways quickly, and they already have a track record of doing this, so this very well might be a right call.

 

Correct. Maybe it’s even the right thing to do, I am just putting this out there because it’s not a free lunch and some one is on the losing side of this, which in this case are the banks.

China is also aggressively lowering interest rates which isn’t great for the banks either. I think XI is willing to sacrifice the banks for here greater good, most are state controlled anyways. This is probably a sector to avoid in this context, since so much of their performance is driven by central bank decisions as well as the economic environment.

[Luke]

https://mearsheimer.substack.com/p/who-caused-the-ukraine-war

 

The alternative argument, which I identify with, and which is clearly the minority view in the West, is that the United States and its allies provoked the war. This is not to deny, of course, that Russia invaded Ukraine and started the war. But the principal cause of the conflict is the NATO decision to bring Ukraine into the alliance, which virtually all Russian leaders see as an existential threat that must be eliminated. NATO expansion, however, is part of a broader strategy that is designed to make Ukraine a Western bulwark on Russia’s border. Bringing Kyiv into the European Union (EU) and promoting a color revolution in Ukraine – turning it into pro-Western liberal democracy – are the other two prongs of the policy. Russia leaders fear all three prongs, but they fear NATO expansion the most. To deal with this threat, Russia launched a preventive war on 24 February 2022.

 

 

The debate about who caused the Ukraine war recently heated up when two prominent Western leaders – former President Donald Trump and prominent British MP Nigel Farage – made the argument that NATO expansion was the driving force behind the conflict. Unsurprisingly, their comments were met with a ferocious counterattack from defenders of the conventional wisdom. It is also worth noting that the outgoing Secretary General of NATO, Jens Stoltenberg, said twice over the past year that “President Putin started this war because he wanted to close NATO’s door and deny Ukraine the right to choose its own path.” Hardly anyone in the West challenged this remarkable admission by NATO’s head and he did not retract it.

My aim here is to provide a primer, which lays out the key points that support the view that Putin invaded Ukraine not because he was an imperialist bent on making Ukraine part of a greater Russia, but mainly because of NATO expansion and the West’s efforts to make Ukraine a Western stronghold on Russia’s border.

 

FIRST, there is simply no evidence from before 24 February 2022 that Putin wanted to conquer Ukraine and incorporate it into Russia. Proponents of the conventional wisdom cannot point to anything Putin wrote or said that indicates he was bent on conquering Ukraine.

 

SECOND, there is no evidence that Putin was preparing a puppet government for Ukraine, cultivating pro-Russian leaders in Kyiv, or pursuing any political measures that would make it possible to occupy the entire country and eventually integrate it into Russia.

 

THIRD, Putin did not have anywhere near enough troops to conquer Ukraine.

 

FOURTH, in the months before the war started, Putin tried to find a diplomatic solution to the brewing crisis.

 

FIFTH, immediately after the war began, Russia reached out to Ukraine to start negotiations to end the war and work out a modus vivendi between the two countries.

 

SIXTH, putting Ukraine aside, there is not a scintilla of evidence that Putin was contemplating conquering any other countries in eastern Europe.

 

SEVENTH, hardly anyone in the West argued that Putin had imperial ambitions from the time he took the reins of power in 2000 until the Ukraine crisis started on 22 February 2014. At that point, he suddenly became an imperial aggressor. Why? Because Western leaders needed a reason to blame him for causing the crisis.  

 

 

 

Let me shift gears and lay out the THREE MAIN REASONS to think that NATO expansion was the principal cause of the Ukraine war.

 

FIRST, Russian leaders across the board said repeatedly before the war started that they considered NATO expansion into Ukraine to be an existential threat that had to be eliminated.

 

SECOND, a substantial number of influential and highly regarded individuals in the West recognized before the war that NATO expansion – especially into Ukraine – would be seen by Russian leaders as a mortal threat and eventually lead to disaster.

 

THIRD, the centrality of Russia’s profound fear of Ukraine joining NATO is illustrated by two developments that have occurred since the war began.

 

 

 

 

 

John Joseph Mearsheimer is an American political scientist and international relations scholar. He is the R. Wendell Harrison Distinguished Service Professor at the University of Chicago. Mearsheimer is best known for developing the theory of offensive realism, which describes the interaction between great powers as being primarily driven by the rational desire to achieve regional hegemony in an anarchic international system. In accordance with his theory, Mearsheimer believes that China's growing power will likely bring it into conflict with the United States.

[John Hjorth]

Luke [ @Luke ],

 

Are you posting the above from the Mearshiemer substack because it represents your own personal view?, - and in that case, to which degree does it that?

[Luke]

3 minutes ago, John Hjorth said:

Luke [ @Luke ],

 

Are you posting the above from the Mearshiemer substack because it represents your own personal view?, - and in that case, to which degree does it that?

Nothing personal, just found it interesting. Found it on his twitter.

[Luke]

I am trying to keep an open mind on this war

[Xerxes]

On 8/25/2024 at 11:21 AM, ValueMaven said:

Think about how weak the Russian military is!  This has truly been an amazing insight for NATO/China and even Iran!  Poorly trained, weak chain of command and very poor operational expertise.  This has been one of the best investments for the USA.  Not a single American solider has died - yet the Russian Army has been weakened/killed by at least 300-400,000.  Regan would never have believed it!

 

I wonder why other anti-Russian areas like Georgia, Chechnya fighters, and even some of the former Soviet countries have yet to rally together publicly agaisnt this and even start to attack Russia directly!

in terms of ROIC in isolation. Yes. With very limited investment, significant damage was inflicted on the Russian military and whatever myth was there was shattered. 
 

But has it been a best investment ? (Putting aside that U.S. had no choice) if that same ROIC is looked at a macro level. Russia is probably lost to China for next several decades, the Russian state took back the “commanding heights” of the Russian economy, removed the political dissidents and now Kremlin has every incentive to chart its own course and do a “hard break”. 
 

often time, the easiest calculable ROIC are the ones that don’t matter. The hardest calculable ROIC are the ones that matter. 
 

Vietnam War was a significant ROIC gain for Moscow, if one calculated the very limited Russian involvement, vs losses (material and PR) on the U.S. side. Very high ROIC. Yeap, they were high-fiving in Moscow in Dec ‘68. 
 

Yet just a few years later, the war ended and Beijing moved permanently out of Moscow’ orbit.
 

Vietnam and Korea had to happen so that Zhu Enlai and Kissinger could happen. That was a great victory for the West. 

Edited September 1, 2024 by Xerxes

[Spekulatius]

I checked on NetDragon after they reported and numbers weren’t that great but also some reporting seems weird, especially a round the partly spun off educational business- now named MYND.

Also some reported numbers look weird to me. NetDragon 777. HK went into the too hard pile.

 

Just posting this in case anyone is interested or has done some work on this stock as well.

Edited September 1, 2024 by Spekulatius

[cubsfan]

3 hours ago, Luke said:

Nothing personal, just found it interesting. Found it on his twitter.

 

Likely some truth to the Mearshiemer post. We will never know the truth really. 

 

NATO membership or not - Russia has assured from now on - Ukraine will be armed to the teeth for years. Europe has awakened.

[UK]

4 hours ago, Luke said:

https://mearsheimer.substack.com/p/who-caused-the-ukraine-war

 

The alternative argument, which I identify with, and which is clearly the minority view in the West, is that the United States and its allies provoked the war. This is not to deny, of course, that Russia invaded Ukraine and started the war. But the principal cause of the conflict is the NATO decision to bring Ukraine into the alliance, which virtually all Russian leaders see as an existential threat that must be eliminated. NATO expansion, however, is part of a broader strategy that is designed to make Ukraine a Western bulwark on Russia’s border. Bringing Kyiv into the European Union (EU) and promoting a color revolution in Ukraine – turning it into pro-Western liberal democracy – are the other two prongs of the policy. Russia leaders fear all three prongs, but they fear NATO expansion the most. To deal with this threat, Russia launched a preventive war on 24 February 2022.

 

 

The debate about who caused the Ukraine war recently heated up when two prominent Western leaders – former President Donald Trump and prominent British MP Nigel Farage – made the argument that NATO expansion was the driving force behind the conflict. Unsurprisingly, their comments were met with a ferocious counterattack from defenders of the conventional wisdom. It is also worth noting that the outgoing Secretary General of NATO, Jens Stoltenberg, said twice over the past year that “President Putin started this war because he wanted to close NATO’s door and deny Ukraine the right to choose its own path.” Hardly anyone in the West challenged this remarkable admission by NATO’s head and he did not retract it.

My aim here is to provide a primer, which lays out the key points that support the view that Putin invaded Ukraine not because he was an imperialist bent on making Ukraine part of a greater Russia, but mainly because of NATO expansion and the West’s efforts to make Ukraine a Western stronghold on Russia’s border.

 

FIRST, there is simply no evidence from before 24 February 2022 that Putin wanted to conquer Ukraine and incorporate it into Russia. Proponents of the conventional wisdom cannot point to anything Putin wrote or said that indicates he was bent on conquering Ukraine.

 

SECOND, there is no evidence that Putin was preparing a puppet government for Ukraine, cultivating pro-Russian leaders in Kyiv, or pursuing any political measures that would make it possible to occupy the entire country and eventually integrate it into Russia.

 

THIRD, Putin did not have anywhere near enough troops to conquer Ukraine.

 

FOURTH, in the months before the war started, Putin tried to find a diplomatic solution to the brewing crisis.

 

FIFTH, immediately after the war began, Russia reached out to Ukraine to start negotiations to end the war and work out a modus vivendi between the two countries.

 

SIXTH, putting Ukraine aside, there is not a scintilla of evidence that Putin was contemplating conquering any other countries in eastern Europe.

 

SEVENTH, hardly anyone in the West argued that Putin had imperial ambitions from the time he took the reins of power in 2000 until the Ukraine crisis started on 22 February 2014. At that point, he suddenly became an imperial aggressor. Why? Because Western leaders needed a reason to blame him for causing the crisis.  

 

 

 

Let me shift gears and lay out the THREE MAIN REASONS to think that NATO expansion was the principal cause of the Ukraine war.

 

FIRST, Russian leaders across the board said repeatedly before the war started that they considered NATO expansion into Ukraine to be an existential threat that had to be eliminated.

 

SECOND, a substantial number of influential and highly regarded individuals in the West recognized before the war that NATO expansion – especially into Ukraine – would be seen by Russian leaders as a mortal threat and eventually lead to disaster.

 

THIRD, the centrality of Russia’s profound fear of Ukraine joining NATO is illustrated by two developments that have occurred since the war began.

 

 

 

 

 

John Joseph Mearsheimer is an American political scientist and international relations scholar. He is the R. Wendell Harrison Distinguished Service Professor at the University of Chicago. Mearsheimer is best known for developing the theory of offensive realism, which describes the interaction between great powers as being primarily driven by the rational desire to achieve regional hegemony in an anarchic international system. In accordance with his theory, Mearsheimer believes that China's growing power will likely bring it into conflict with the United States.

 

I have listened to a few of a very long interviews of his and I liked them very much and I agree with a many things he is saying. Also the whole thing is way above my paygrade, very difficult and complicated, to have any clear conclusions on some things or on their long term consequencies, and there are many biases etc involved. On a few things my mind (perhaps because of fear) is on the oposite position where the heart (or gut) is. Or just to point out some incredible contradictions of this situation, and I am not even sure if it is 100 percent true, but it seems that the current commander-in-chief of Ukraine armed forces was born in Russia while his parents and brother still live in Russia...one of a many things quite not so easy to understand. Long story short of how I see it, I have no idea how to solve this lets call it a 'Putin problem', but I am very sure I know how I feel about it/him and this is not uncommon of how majority of people around me are feeling, see the picture:).

 

But also notice the red logo on the next building further. It it is the logo of Huawei:). Can not remember / not sure if it is still out there though:)

 

Edited September 1, 2024 by UK

[John Hjorth]

Damn! [in a positive way, -not kidding!],

 

I personally appreciate very much all the input I get almost every day in this topic about this calamity, and how to at least try to think about it, and about how to bring the warfare activities to an end. For my personal part, it actually occupies quite a bit of my mind on a daily basis these days, likely because I live relatively close by.

 

This also includes keeping the ongoing dialogue and discussion civil on an ongoing basis. [I'm by the way pretty sure this topic would suffer the death with a sudden [and silent] *poof* if it was not so - it is like the topic is and exist here on 'tolerated stay', like some most wanted terrorist on a real vacation somewhere, without getting recognized.

 

- - - o 0 o - - -

 

Thank you.

[cubsfan]

1 hour ago, UK said:

 

I have listened to a few of a very long interviews of his and I liked them very much and I agree with a many things he is saying. Also the whole thing is way above my paygrade, very difficult and complicated, to have any clear conclusions on some things or on their long term consequencies, and there are many biases etc involved. On a few things my mind (perhaps because of fear) is on the oposite position where the heart (or gut) is. Or just to point out some incredible contradictions of this situation, and I am not even sure if it is 100 percent true, but it seems that the current commander-in-chief of Ukraine armed forces was born in Russia while his parents and brother still live in Russia...one of a many things quite not so easy to understand. Long story short of how I see it, I have no idea how to solve this lets call it a 'Putin problem', but I am very sure I know how I feel about it/him and this is not uncommon of how majority of people around me are feeling, see the picture:).

 

But also notice the red logo on the next building further. It it is the logo of Huawei:). Can not remember / not sure if it is still out there though:)

 

 

This picture,,,,  likely not the best way to enter into a ceasefire or settlement talk.