Have We Hit The Top?

[Grenville]

31 minutes ago, cubsfan said:

 

I would expect that attitude from a federal employee that just lost an election - sour grapes that the populist is in charge now.  You're definitely an elitist snob.

 

hmm it seems everyone else has a moniker your giving them, what’s yours? 

[Spekulatius]

52 minutes ago, LC said:

 

I agree with this. I think he could've lowered earlier too, but  being like 3-6 months late to the party is not a knock against him. Frankly you could argue he took an appropriately conservative path.

 

Right from wikipedia, his job is to:

 

Congress established three key objectives for monetary policy in the Federal Reserve Act: maximizing employment, stabilizing prices, and moderating long-term interest rates

 

4.1% unemployment is pretty freaking low. 

Inflation reads have stabilized.

The 10-year is pretty moderate at 4.6% and he has been lowering. 

 

Not sure what more I can expect from the guy. 

 

Inflation wasn’t the Feds fault, it’s on the treasury. I agree he did a good job.

[Gregmal]

1 minute ago, Blake Hampton said:

What do you think about a decrease in prices?

Decrease is which prices? Decrease is deflation, which is apparently bad. But for housing, theres an age old hack and that is to build. Increase affordability or incentives to build you create jobs and solve the issue. 

 

Powell just doesnt get this, and its been shocking how long now he's been going on about this inflation thing when all thats left is housing. The current Fed's obsession here is only made more peculiar by the fact that none seem to have really been willing to admit reality and that is that despite their mandate, certain elements of inflation have nothing to do with them, and theres nothing they can do about it. Look at insurance...insurance rates go up because housing costs are elevated and because of weather events. Hiking rates won't stop wildfires....so yea, definitely think its time for a change. If nothing else, Trump gets building. So this will be a low hanging fruit. 

[cubsfan]

5 minutes ago, Grenville said:

 

hmm it seems everyone else has a moniker your giving them, what’s yours? 

 

Your call on that.

[Spekulatius]

Isn’t “cubsfan” crazy enough

Edited 3 hours ago by Spekulatius

[cubsfan]

2 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:

Isn’t “cubsfan” crazy enough

 

Hahaha - that's just the tip of the iceberg. It's an acquired taste.

[Sweet]

1 hour ago, Gregmal said:

Covid great, sure. SVB he caused. And inflation he totally overreacted to and chased his tail. It was transitory all along he just got the timeline wrong. Same timeline a bunch of us here accurately predicted almost to the month. Now he’s just chasing things that don’t exist. 

 

I don’t agree he caused SVB, he had to raise rates IMO.  I think he was too slow with rates, and perhaps too high at the end, but SVB failed because they didn’t manage their bond portfolio well, and they had a customer base that pulled out their money quickly at the slightest whiff of a problem.

 

Like you I do believe a large measure of inflation was supply chain, but easy money has to end in times of inflation.  Near zero rates is not historically normal, or in my opinion good.

[james22]

1 hour ago, Blake Hampton said:

I strongly believe that we’re living in a period of unprecedented disinformation and madness.

 

You're 22 years old. LOL

 

How the fuck would you know?

[Blake Hampton]

Just now, james22 said:

 

You're 22 years old. LOL

 

How the fuck would you know?

It's called reading history

[james22]

Just now, Blake Hampton said:

It's called reading history

 

Then you should know:

 

It's always a period of disinformation and madness.

[james22]

History always seems obvious in hindsight.

 

At the time though, nothing is.

 

Live long enough and you'll learn nothing is unprecedented.

 

[Gregmal]

4 minutes ago, Sweet said:

I don’t agree he caused SVB

OK yes, HE didnt cause SVB, but HE created the situation and post mortem the story is "stupid actors that didnt manage risk" for SVB, but Powell nearly caused a widespread run on the whole banking system, almost exclusively over the issue of "MTM" on long duration fixed income....something he is supposed to be overseeing as a regulator. None of that stuff needed to happen. And if YOU are responsible for the stress tests, should YOU then know where the system limits lay? I dont think people fully understand the insanity of this. 

 

ZIRP is neither necessary or healthy. Super violent rerates though can hurt people and break things. Theres the arrogant finance guy retort that "this was the point", but I dont buy it, especially if youre the benevolent overseer and protector of the less fortunate that many claimed he viewed himself as in his inflation "fight". You know the stories no one hears? Folks whom lost their jobs because of all the corporations trying to front run "the reset" in 2022/3. All the people whom lost deposits or had to walk from their new homes because they no longer qualified for the mortgage. The people whom worked low end jobs barely getting by whom went from having $25-30 an hour job offers everywhere they looked to now just being back to punching in and hoping they get 3% annually. Thats where this jackass screwed the pooch big time. In what world, banking crisis or affordability crisis, did going from 0-5% in half a year make any sense? It was one of the most reckless things Ive ever seen from a guv guy. 

[Blake Hampton]

Just now, james22 said:

Then you should know:

 

It's always a period of disinformation and madness.

 

True, but I do think some periods are worse than others. I would argue that now is pretty bad. However, if you were to compare it to Goebbels and Nazi Germany, it might look pretty mundane. It's all relative.

[73 Reds]

2 minutes ago, Blake Hampton said:

 

True, but I do think some periods are worse than others. I would argue that now is pretty bad. However, if you were to compare it to Goebbels and Nazi Germany, it might look pretty mundane. It's all relative.

Bad for who?  Precisely what are you complaining about?  In my lifetime I've never seen so much opportunity for so many.  Where is it written that everyone should be able to afford a home and pretty much everything else they want?  There is a job for anyone who wants one, educational opportunities for just about any field or interest, and the average standard of living today is incomparable to just one generation ago; trust me, I lived it.  My advice: Stop complaining and go do something productive.  

[james22]

1 minute ago, Blake Hampton said:

True, but I do think some periods are worse than others. I would argue that now is pretty bad. However, if you were to compare it to Goebbels and Nazi Germany, it might look pretty mundane. It's all relative.

 

LOL

 

Compare it to 2020 (Corona), 2007 (Sub-prime), 9/11, 2000, etc., etc. 

 

And those were only the crashes.

 

You could also compare it to EVERY SINGLE OTHER YEAR where crashes didn't happen but were forecast.

 

Every recovery is only a dead cat bounce, etc.

[Gregmal]

 

I say this in a way marveling at James, because having been here a while, I think its worth pointing out some of his evolution, and giving him credit for finding something in his wheelhouse and running with it. As the above post highlights, at one point in his tenure here, he sounded a bit like Blake. 

 

40% cash! All I can say is we all have our own investing journeys and the only mandate is not to become hypnotized by literature or experts. 

 

 

[cubsfan]

4 minutes ago, Blake Hampton said:

 

True, but I do think some periods are worse than others. I would argue that now is pretty bad. However, if you were to compare it to Goebbels and Nazi Germany, it might look pretty mundane. It's all relative.

 

IF you believe that , then you should have no problem at all with free speech. And as @Gregmal points out, you might be the one being buffaloed with disinformation by J. Powell.

 

Inflation has been killing the middle class with everyday purchases and has priced their kids out of the housing market. But, at the same time, it's certainly made a bunch of the CoBF members rich - which is not a great thing for society. 

That's why this government got the boot - not because the public is dumb -they see it everyday.

[Sweet]

7 minutes ago, Gregmal said:

OK yes, HE didnt cause SVB, but HE created the situation and post mortem the story is "stupid actors that didnt manage risk" for SVB, but Powell nearly caused a widespread run on the whole banking system, almost exclusively over the issue of "MTM" on long duration fixed income....something he is supposed to be overseeing as a regulator. None of that stuff needed to happen. And if YOU are responsible for the stress tests, should YOU then know where the system limits lay? I dont think people fully understand the insanity of this. 

 

ZIRP is neither necessary or healthy. Super violent rerates though can hurt people and break things. Theres the arrogant finance guy retort that "this was the point", but I dont buy it, especially if youre the benevolent overseer and protector of the less fortunate that many claimed he viewed himself as in his inflation "fight". You know the stories no one hears? Folks whom lost their jobs because of all the corporations trying to front run "the reset" in 2022/3. All the people whom lost deposits or had to walk from their new homes because they no longer qualified for the mortgage. The people whom worked low end jobs barely getting by whom went from having $25-30 an hour job offers everywhere they looked to now just being back to punching in and hoping they get 3% annually. Thats where this jackass screwed the pooch big time. In what world, banking crisis or affordability crisis, did going from 0-5% in half a year make any sense? It was one of the most reckless things Ive ever seen from a guv guy. 

It makes sense when inflation is 10%.  I think he should have taken his foot off the gas sooner on the hikes.  Of course there were people hurt by the pace of the rise, but how many older savers got fucked over from 14 years of ZIRP, if you didn’t own assets you got left behind.

[73 Reds]

1 minute ago, Sweet said:

It makes sense when inflation is 10%.  I think he should have taken his foot off the gas sooner on the hikes.  Of course there were people hurt by the pace of the rise, but how many older savers got fucked over from 14 years of ZIRP, if you didn’t own assets you got left behind.

As much as ZIRP was a complete absurdity, older savers had other options.  Some simply chose not to use them.  Ignorance or a refusal to try to better your own situation is really not a valid excuse.  No one forces anyone to make bad choices.  When folks choose to remain in fixed income, it is a cognizant choice they make not to grow their nest egg.  Why should anyone feel sorry for that?  Not to sound harsh but there was no shortage of worthwhile investment and financial information available to anyone who wants it.

[Gregmal]

2 minutes ago, 73 Reds said:

As much as ZIRP was a complete absurdity, older savers had other options.  Some simply chose not to use them.  Ignorance or a refusal to try to better your own situation is really not a valid excuse.  No one forces anyone to make bad choices.  When folks choose to remain in fixed income, it is a cognizant choice they make not to grow their nest egg.  Why should anyone feel sorry for that?  Not to sound harsh but there was no shortage of worthwhile investment and financial information available to anyone who wants it.

Exactly, the biggest freeloader out there is the one who wants something for nothing and that to a T is what a lot of the people whining about savers getting screwed by ZIRP were. A healthily functioning society requires investment in the future of society, which in simpler terms is putting money to work and why risk is often rewarded. Theres no sympathy for the 60 year old retiree who refused to do anything but own risk free fixed income. 

[james22]

1 minute ago, Gregmal said:

 

I say this in a way marveling at James, because having been here a while, I think its worth pointing out some of his evolution, and giving him credit for finding something in his wheelhouse and running with it. As the above post highlights, at one point in his tenure here, he sounded a bit like Blake. 

 

40% cash! All I can say is we all have our own investing journeys and the only mandate is not to become hypnotized by literature or experts. 

 

 

 

It's very, very hard to accept you can't outsmart the Market.

 

Even managing to invest that 40% cash at the 2020 lows didn't catch me up to the blindly optimistic buy-and-hold Tech investor.

[Gregmal]

4 minutes ago, james22 said:

 

It's very, very hard to accept you can't outsmart the Market.

 

Even managing to invest that 40% cash at the 2020 lows didn't catch me up to the blindly optimistic buy-and-hold Tech investor.

Yea well you evolved and are better off because of that decision. Many don’t. See the guy you quoted in that post, Hussman lol 

[Sweet]

22 minutes ago, 73 Reds said:

As much as ZIRP was a complete absurdity, older savers had other options.  Some simply chose not to use them.  Ignorance or a refusal to try to better your own situation is really not a valid excuse.  No one forces anyone to make bad choices.  When folks choose to remain in fixed income, it is a cognizant choice they make not to grow their nest egg.  Why should anyone feel sorry for that?  Not to sound harsh but there was no shortage of worthwhile investment and financial information available to anyone who wants it.

Yeh I agree, but then don’t complain to me about people hurt by rising interest rates, because everyone has options.  High rates hurt one type of people, low rates hurt another.  

The rate rises caused a buying opportunity in stocks, we ripped higher after it.  Unable to get a mortgage - invest it and try again in 2-3 years.  Same logic.  Some companies are more than 2x from their low.

 

Edited 1 hour ago by Sweet

[james22]

12 minutes ago, Gregmal said:

Yea well you evolved and are better off because of that decision. Many don’t. See the guy you quoted in that post, Hussman lol 

 

As hard as it is to accept you can't outsmart the market, it's even harder to accept you were outsmarted by (relatively blind) consensus/momentum investors.

 

But returns are all that matters.

[Sweet]

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