Ray Dalio Interview

[TwoCitiesCapital]

3 hours ago, Gregmal said:

Pretty much anything can occasionally have a decent “relative” stretch. I’ve followed gold my whole career and waited to really see the scenarios where it shines and it just doesn’t. Maybe you get a flare up with some war drama or temporary gov issue, but I think it’s largely a psychological investment and much of that has been displaced by other assets such as crypto. 

 

Perhaps. I tend to think Bitcoin MAY displace gold, but given it's perfect inelasticity, its possible it remains TOO volatile to be the asset counted upon in risk-off type moves. Gold may retain an important place in people's portfolios despite  my expectations for Bitcoin. 

 

I own way more Bitcoin than I do gold. But have been recently been buying gold miners that are now significantly off 2021 highs. I expect a high probability gold will do significantly better than equities in the 2020s - perhaps miners with exposure to it won't be half bad either. 

Edited October 9, 2023 by TwoCitiesCapital

[valueseek]

7 hours ago, Gregmal said:

Yup. Just like Kyle Bass saying short everything while going long Chargepoint post spac deal. 

Wow… stopped listening to Bass several years ago… but this is news that he was long Chargepoint… quite hilarious if it is true that he were long this 

[Spooky]

On 10/8/2023 at 6:17 PM, TwoCitiesCapital said:

I mean...the 5-year return for GLD isn't that far off from the 5-year return on SPY.

 

Relative to value stocks, small- and mid-cal, and int'l, GLD is kicking ass. Can we really say that a positive view towards gold is wrong if it's outperforming MOST global equities over a 5-year period?  

 

 

Are you looking at this with dividends reinvested? YTD the S&P 500 with dividends reinvested is kicking gold's ass (up about 13.5% while gold is down about 13.5%).

[TwoCitiesCapital]

29 minutes ago, Spooky said:

 

Are you looking at this with dividends reinvested? YTD the S&P 500 with dividends reinvested is kicking gold's ass (up about 13.5% while gold is down about 13.5%).

 

Yes - YTD that's the case.

And GLD kicked the S&Ps ass in 2022 with or without dividends. 

 

The S&P total return is ahead by 2-3% per annum at this point, but was behind as recently as June. 

 

Compared to the S&P 500 equal weight, MSCI ACWI, EFA, EM, small cap, mid cap, etc....gold has killed them all over the preceding 5-years and basically matched the equal weight S&P 500.

 

Not obvious that gold was/is a bad call if the only asset class to outperform it was basically the Nasdaq...

Edited October 9, 2023 by TwoCitiesCapital

[ValueArb]

Ray apparently left Bridgwater in a dog eat dog competition for the final end boss.

 

Quote

An ex-partner at Bridgewater Associates accused the world’s largest hedge fund of favoritism as well as age and sex discrimination, the second such complaint from a senior executive in recent months.

 

The partner, Jeff Gardner, 53, was fired from Bridgewater in December after working there for almost three decades, according to a filing in Connecticut Superior Court. He made the filing along with Paul Ross, 43, a former senior executive who previously submitted a similar complaint to Bridgewater’s board.

 

Their accusations stem from Chief Executive Officer Nir Bar Dea’s past office romance with another Bridgewater employee and a restructuring of the firm last year that ousted Gardner and Ross from their roles, according to the filing. Bridgewater founder Ray Dalio relinquished control of the firm in September 2022, and Bar Dea was elevated to sole CEO last March... 

 

Gardner and Ross accused Bridgewater of discrimination after Bar Dea’s former romantic partner Erin Miles and her ex-fiance Sean Macrae were elevated in last year’s shuffle....

 

Quote

The men’s allegations also stem from the hedge fund’s lackluster returns. Bridgewater’s flagship hedge fund strategy has struggled for most of the past decade, reporting a 7.6% loss last year — the third-worst decline in its history.