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The Ring of Fire! Bill Gross latest comments


Eric50
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Does anyone understand why he chose Canada over Australia as his first choice investment?  His ring of fire nearly encompasses Canada, but not quite.  Australia is as far as one can get.

 

Or is Australia not considered a "Developed" country?

 

Of all of the developed countries, three broad fixed-income observations stand out: 1) given enough liquidity and current yields I would prefer to invest money in Canada. Its conservative banks never did participate in the housing crisis and it moved toward and stayed closer to fiscal balance than any other country,

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Today my guess is Buffett has definite views on the US$, inflation (macro stuff) etc when making investments; not this year or next year but 5 or 10 years out. His rationale for the Burlington purchase was 'an all in wager on the future of the US economy'. Sounds like a macro call to me.

 

I enjoy reading Gross, Lacy Hunt, Grantham etc. These are bright people who think long and hard about this stuff.

 

I also am not of the opinion that buy and hold is a great investment strategy (although it certainly is better today than it was in 2000, especially if you are a US investor). I am happy to buy stuff that others hate (or dislike... I relaxed my standards a little later last year and bought US large caps KFT, JNJ, WMT & BRK-B). And I will likely sell on strength and look to repeat as I expect we will have a very choppy sideways market until we get further clarity on the economic situation (back into recession or slow recovery).

 

And just to state the obvious, my forecast is likely to be just as dumb as the next guys...

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In this missive he clearly dissed Templeton as being washed up 20 years ago. This was the same Sir John who made hundreds of millions shorting internet stocks in 1999 and 2000 in the months before the insider lock-up agreements expired! Bill Gross is clearly very bright and at the top of his game but we have had the best 20 year run for fixed income in 100 years ,I smell an awful lot of hubris here.

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