Real World Anecdotes

[cubsfan]

Spartan - these are the real life tragedies that represent "the other side of the coin" - of excessive/unneeded lockdown.

 

 

Not sure I can compare thousands of deaths to a guy not affording his benz as the same scale of tragedy

 

70,000 died from the flu in 2017 - should we have locked down the country?

 

Your point about the Benz guy is fine.  You ok with so many of these other small business guy's having their businesses and associated

job going up in smoke?  Is there an excessive "price to pay" on the other side of the lockdown?

[gary17]

if. no measures were taken 2M+ deaths. 

not 70,000

 

the 100-200k is with measures

[cubsfan]

if. no measures were taken 2M+ deaths. 

not 70,000

 

the 100-200k is with measures

 

Thanks Gary - it's a big IF... - point is - how confident are you in those models? 

 

Garbage in, garbage out.  It's a wide range of possibilities - and is it worth the kind of destruction we are seeing?

What is the price of faulty data leading us over the cliff?  It's a pretty damn big price

 

Destroy a booming economy and hundreds of thousands of lives?  You sure about the data?

 

I am not downplaying the lethal nature of this virus for the old, immune compromised - it's serious. Is there no way to

wall this off and isolate those groups and NOT wreck the kind of destruction we are at this point.

You have to know that an extended shutdown is going to kill an awful lot of people - through depression, drugs, stress, suicides.

It could easily be more than Covid19.

 

Not to mention years worth of economic damage to the survivors and a staggering amount of debt for their children.

 

These "experts", many who have secure jobs - better know what the hell they are doing.

[Spekulatius]

One day after  Trump/Fauci talked about mask, I saw people wearing mask at work in hallways. note that we operate clean room and grey rooms where people are wearing masks, but they usually removed them when they step out. Not any more!  Goes to show that messaging from leadership is important!

[Jurgis]

- Yesterday parking lot in Fells dog-walking meadow was closed and police car was parked outside likely to discourage illegal parking on the highway. I guess someone decided that a ton of people coming to dog walk in meadow/forest is creating transmission risk. Of course the unintended consequence is that other parking lots that are even less equipped to handle the dog walker/casual walker traffic were swamped. If you prevent people from walking in one part of the forest, they go elsewhere and you might end up with even more people density.  ::)

 

- We are watching movies and our reaction is "wow people are not socially distancing, what kind of crazies are they". Now, this is mostly a joke so far, but there is some cognitive effect. I hope we don't end with social-distancing-forever and looking nostalgically at movies/documentaries where people shook hands, kissed, etc.

[Spekulatius]

I noticed already a restaurant that we used for takeout being shuttered.. Website is gone too, I think it’s done for good.

 

I agree with Jurgis that the social distancing is starting to become a habitual reflex. It will probably take some time to get rid of it too.

[Jurgis]

We are still ordering for pickup or delivery. We went for pickup yesterday and my wife said something like "they are doing good business". I thought, "hmm it's 7-10 cars vs 60-100 patrons". But then I thought that the cars stay there for 5-10 minutes max and patrons stayed for hour+. So maybe they are doing OK. Depends on a restaurant clearly. Holes in the wall that mostly did delivery before pandemic are probably doing OK (maybe better? not sure). A lot of places just shut down. The ones that are trying to convert from (somewhat fancy) sit-down to delivery are probably not doing very well. But it does depend. Places that are doing half-a$$ job in trying to convert are very likely faring worse than the ones who are really making effort to show that they are there for customers and community. And pre-pandemic reputation also helps.

[Spekulatius]

Some of the restaurants are doing a good staying. One Korean place close to my work sends out email promotions, gave out toilet paper rolls with each pickup/delivery and also started to offer meal kids (bake/fry at home ) for families.

 

I am not really that keen on pickup (because of pot. Exposure) and even restaurant food delivered may carry some risk (disinfect containers etc.), so we don’t do that any more and delivery options are limited here in the boonies anyways.

 

We we are cooking 100% at home and spending $400 on Costco food runs. I know others who do the same. We even have after hours “cheers” party via FaceTime where we salute each other with out drinks. I can do this for a couple of month, but long term it surely sucks.

[vinod1]

We are still getting drive through food. Put the food bag in a trash bag immediately. We make sure none of the containers touch anything and are in the trash bag while we take the food out and put them into plates. Then we bake or microwave the hell out of them.

 

If Covid still manages to infect me, it is a deserving victor.

 

Vinod

[BG2008]

My wife tells me that her family looks forward to me cooking the 2 dinners every weekend.  They are helping with the 2 kiddos.  So I cook up a storm, like steaks, crab legs, fish, etc.  The supply chain is tough these days.  Lots of fresh seafood has gone away and we are ordering delivery as the risk of catching the virus in NYC is actually quite high.  I have noticed that there are no left over anymore lately.  Somehow, we finish everything that I cook. 

[Spekulatius]

Our friend from town told us that his brother was stopped by cops in central New Hampshire because of his MA license plates and urged to drive back to MA. Apparently they are concerned about Mass-holes infecting them.

 

Those folks have a weekend/vacation home there and owned it for many years. I don’t think what these cops are doing is legal. This doesn’t happen around the border (Nashua)where lots of folks from MA go shopping, but venture further in and the wild East starts.

 

Before that epidemics, I personally found the cops there exceptionally friendly.

[Jurgis]

Our friend from town told us that his brother was stopped by cops in central New Hampshire because of his MA license plates and urged to drive back to MA. Apparently they are concerned about Mass-holes infecting them.

 

Those folks have a weekend/vacation home there and owned it for many years. I don’t think what these cops are doing is legal. This doesn’t happen around the border (Nashua)where lots of folks from MA go shopping, but venture further in and the wild East starts.

 

Before that epidemics, I personally found the cops there exceptionally friendly.

 

What happened with "Live free or die"?

[rb]

It's just a slogan. Same as KFC is "Finger Likin' Good". Not "Diarrhea and Heart Disease". 

[Spekulatius]

It's just a slogan. Same as KFC is "Finger Likin' Good". Not "Diarrhea and Heart Disease".

 

Sometimes the realty doesn’t match the advertisement.

 

Or perhaps it was changed to:

“ We live free, you may die”

[Jurgis]

Our friend from town told us that his brother was stopped by cops in central New Hampshire because of his MA license plates and urged to drive back to MA. Apparently they are concerned about Mass-holes infecting them.

 

Those folks have a weekend/vacation home there and owned it for many years. I don’t think what these cops are doing is legal. This doesn’t happen around the border (Nashua)where lots of folks from MA go shopping, but venture further in and the wild East starts.

 

Before that epidemics, I personally found the cops there exceptionally friendly.

 

This practice is spreading hugely:

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/trafficandcommuting/covid-19-checkpoints-targeting-out-of-state-residents-draw-complaints-and-legal-scrutiny/2020/04/14/3fc0ed42-774e-11ea-b6ff-597f170df8f8_story.html

 

No-longer-United States of America.

 

And people expect a "reopen" soon? LOLZ.

[BG2008]

Grocery delivery has emerged to become a cottage industry of its own.  Here in NYC, people who got laid off are offering grocery delivery for families who do not want to risk becoming infected.  Getting a spot through Costco, Wholefoods, Chef's warehouse, or Baldor has been difficult. 

[BG2008]

Apparently NYC condos are better than cash if you are a South America family.  Part of the reason why NYC RE prices continues to be high.  Probably a hedge against political instability.

 

https://www.wsj.com/articles/south-american-family-buys-eight-new-york-apartments-to-stash-cash-amid-coronavirus-11586952028?mod=trending_now_4

[Jurgis]

Apparently NYC condos are better than cash if you are a South America family.  Part of the reason why NYC RE prices continues to be high.  Probably a hedge against political instability.

 

https://www.wsj.com/articles/south-american-family-buys-eight-new-york-apartments-to-stash-cash-amid-coronavirus-11586952028?mod=trending_now_4

 

Didn't they get a note to use bitcoin?

[Spekulatius]

Apparently NYC condos are better than cash if you are a South America family.  Part of the reason why NYC RE prices continues to be high.  Probably a hedge against political instability.

 

https://www.wsj.com/articles/south-american-family-buys-eight-new-york-apartments-to-stash-cash-amid-coronavirus-11586952028?mod=trending_now_4

 

I would have thought that recent events have impaired NYC status as a safe haven.

[John Hjorth]

One of our neighbors, last night got delivered 3 tonnes [in two huge plastic bags] of enriched soil. Her garden area is about 400 m².  There is always interesting scenarios to watch how they evolve.

[BG2008]

Apparently NYC condos are better than cash if you are a South America family.  Part of the reason why NYC RE prices continues to be high.  Probably a hedge against political instability.

 

https://www.wsj.com/articles/south-american-family-buys-eight-new-york-apartments-to-stash-cash-amid-coronavirus-11586952028?mod=trending_now_4

 

I would have thought that recent events have impaired NYC status as a safe haven.

 

You can pick

 

1) NYC real estate with rampant zombie virus or

2) Potentially lawless emerging markets where currency may devalue

 

 

 

[Spekulatius]

Apparently NYC condos are better than cash if you are a South America family.  Part of the reason why NYC RE prices continues to be high.  Probably a hedge against political instability.

 

https://www.wsj.com/articles/south-american-family-buys-eight-new-york-apartments-to-stash-cash-amid-coronavirus-11586952028?mod=trending_now_4

 

I would have thought that recent events have impaired NYC status as a safe haven.

 

You can pick

 

1) NYC real estate with rampant zombie virus or

2) Potentially lawless emerging markets where currency may devalue

 

I don’t think you are born to be a realtor.

[BG2008]

Not sure if I have mentioned this already, but here it goes

 

1) Most of the Chinese supermarkets in Flushing has shut down.  I don't know if it is due to the smaller independent not being able to get supplies as the suppliers shift to their larger customers or if it is due to lack of employees or a combination of both

2) There is a new cottage industry of independents grocery delivery services started by out-of-work Chinese restaurant operators and others.  They primarily use WeChat to offer no-contact delivery to your homes

3) Baldor is becoming the dominant grocery delivery services.  Their prices are very reasonable, but you have to buy in bulk.  I hope they continue to sell to the public after this.  Free delivery on orders above $250.  Anyone who wants grocery delivery in the NYC area should consider them. 

[Jurgis]

We went for a lakeside walk today. Pretty busy. Less than half people with masks. Much more masks in the grocery shops (which makes sense).

 

Ordered Thai for delivery. A bunch of restaurants that were open for delivery now closed. OTOH, I think some that were closed before now open. Still pretty large selection.

 

Got the single-use masks that we ordered from Chinese 3rd party seller on Amazon.

Got hand sanitizer from Amazon. Not Chinese, US based, but expensive.

Ordered toilet paper from Walmart.com. Haven't received yet.

Our local Stop & Shop grocery shop still pretty empty shelves. Market Basket is a better.

 

Lithuania is mostly reopening, which I think is a mistake since they have had couple flare ups. They require masks in public, but almost all shops are supposed to open. Small social events for people not in risk groups are going to be allowed too. We'll see how that works out.

[Spekulatius]

We went for a lakeside walk today. Pretty busy. Less than half people with masks. Much more masks in the grocery shops (which makes sense).

 

Ordered Thai for delivery. A bunch of restaurants that were open for delivery now closed. OTOH, I think some that were closed before now open. Still pretty large selection.

 

Got the single-use masks that we ordered from Chinese 3rd party seller on Amazon.

Got hand sanitizer from Amazon. Not Chinese, US based, but expensive.

Ordered toilet paper from Walmart.com. Haven't received yet.

Our local Stop & Shop grocery shop still pretty empty shelves. Market Basket is a better.

 

Lithuania is mostly reopening, which I think is a mistake since they have had couple flare ups. They require masks in public, but almost all shops are supposed to open. Small social events for people not in risk groups are going to be allowed too. We'll see how that works out.

 

I went on a walk on a trail today. Nobody was wearing a mask. I felt ridiculous. To be fair, I think the chance of an Infection outside is minimal if you keep some distance (although many don’t do so either).