Dalal.Holdings Posted March 8, 2020 Posted March 8, 2020 I can give you some perspective from the front lines. I work in an urgent care and for the last couple of weeks have been seeing many cases of pts that present with symptoms way worse then common cold but test negative for flu A/B. Our flu test is 94% sensitive and source from Mckesson. Our current protocol is unless the pt has travel outside of the US within the last 30 days to not call local DOH. So you guys tell me. What virus is going around that presents like the flu, fever, chills, some have body aches, cough, some sore throat that presents way more severe then rhinosinusitis (common cold) but is flu negative. Being thorough I have done chest x rays on all of these patients, no pneumonia or source of infection otherwise and complaint obviously is upper/lower respiratory. I have worked in urgent care/ER for 12 years and maybe its recency bias but cannot remember ordering so many flu tests on people I would bet have the flu, but they come back negative. H1N1 was a different story of course, "everyone" had the flu. I was talking about this with other providers who have noticed the same and honestly it didn't dawn on me till I was thinking about this thread a couple days back that maybe....it could be....the corona virus? What gives though how come no one in my city has come on freaking out or freaks out when I tell them, listen "you have viral symptoms not consistent/way more severe then common cold but your flu is negative." Not one patient has questioned me yet about corona virus yet, but at the same time there are no confirmed cases in my city/area. What blows my mind though is that there are only 400-500 (or whatever the latest figure is) of cases in a city such as NYC. There is no way IMO. How the hell does a virus so contagious with an incubation period of 2-4-14 days only infect that many people in one of the most densely populated cities in the world? My uneducated opinion is that the virus has been in the US for months, the vast, vast, vast majority are people that I describe above and there have been hundreds of thousands of cases on tested/recovered in the US. No kidding. CDC/gov't does not have enough testing capacity due to botching test kit production (despite U.S. being among the last places to start getting these cases). As a result, they have ridiculous criteria to approve testing for COVID (at my hospital ED: DOH tells us there must be travel history to the worst afflicted countries in order to approve testing even though there is verified community spread in our area), patients are hence untested, undiagnosed and in some cases sent back out in the good ole US of A, advanced economy and greatest healthcare system in the world. Remember, it takes a few weeks for patients with onset of infection to exhibit severe symptoms (pneumonia causing shortness of breath, hypoxia) requiring mechanical ventilation/etc so we will find out soon enough how botched this whole thing has been and it will be too late at that point to stop the spread. NY State recently got approved to do their own testing, but ramping up is proving a challenge: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-07/new-york-coronavirus-test-delays-meant-days-without-diagnosis?srnd=premium Question is: how did the federal gov't not prepare for this despite watching China/Korea/etc from afar? In late February, two New York City women returned from a Nile cruise in Egypt feeling ill. Their symptoms worsened, and one soon had a pneumonia-like illness. They learned this week from New York City’s health department that someone else on the cruise ship had been diagnosed with coronavirus. But in spite of their symptoms, the two women -- who are in their 60s and 70s -- were initially told they weren’t going to be tested, according to Amanda, the daughter of one of the women, who also lives in New York City and has been closely involved in her mother’s care. Some people on here are saying U.S. does not have authority to take on strict measures that China took on, but how about Taiwan? Even S Korea seems to be handling this better. Those are two democracies that seem to be taking this much, much more seriously. Edit: it is unlikely virus has been here for months because deaths start happening about 3 weeks after infection. When you see a spike in mortality an mechanical ventilation, it has been ~3-5 weeks since infection. Only WA state has seen this so far, but given cases in other places it is only matter of time as symptoms increase in severity with time. Remember that Chinese whistleblower doctor who died? He died on Feb 7, but guess when he was hospitalized for the disease: January 12th. That is almost 4 weeks from hospitalization to mortality. He developed fever/cough on Jan 10th. He developed shortness of breath/hypoxia much later on Feb 6th. Mortality does not happen quickly with this thing and that's what's scary because it means we are being lulled into a false sense of security when in fact things will get worse.
Guest cherzeca Posted March 8, 2020 Posted March 8, 2020 this is getting personal, if not instructive. shall we post a poll to see which one of you two is an *sshole? If this is adresseed towards me, please say so, instead of wrapping it in calling me a "*sshole*. [/quot it was not addressed to you
Gregmal Posted March 8, 2020 Posted March 8, 2020 I can give you some perspective from the front lines. I work in an urgent care and for the last couple of weeks have been seeing many cases of pts that present with symptoms way worse then common cold but test negative for flu A/B. Our flu test is 94% sensitive and source from Mckesson. Our current protocol is unless the pt has travel outside of the US within the last 30 days to not call local DOH. So you guys tell me. What virus is going around that presents like the flu, fever, chills, some have body aches, cough, some sore throat that presents way more severe then rhinosinusitis (common cold) but is flu negative. Being thorough I have done chest x rays on all of these patients, no pneumonia or source of infection otherwise and complaint obviously is upper/lower respiratory. I have worked in urgent care/ER for 12 years and maybe its recency bias but cannot remember ordering so many flu tests on people I would bet have the flu, but they come back negative. H1N1 was a different story of course, "everyone" had the flu. I was talking about this with other providers who have noticed the same and honestly it didn't dawn on me till I was thinking about this thread a couple days back that maybe....it could be....the corona virus? What gives though how come no one in my city has come on freaking out or freaks out when I tell them, listen "you have viral symptoms not consistent/way more severe then common cold but your flu is negative." Not one patient has questioned me yet about corona virus yet, but at the same time there are no confirmed cases in my city/area. What blows my mind though is that there are only 400-500 (or whatever the latest figure is) of cases in a city such as NYC. There is no way IMO. How the hell does a virus so contagious with an incubation period of 2-4-14 days only infect that many people in one of the most densely populated cities in the world? My uneducated opinion is that the virus has been in the US for months, the vast, vast, vast majority are people that I describe above and there have been hundreds of thousands of cases on tested/recovered in the US. This is actually something I think is very real. People who dont know it, are living and dealing with this. Start spreading panic though, and people with fucking allergies are bombarding hospitals and hotlines because they have a sneeze. With respect to John's posted report, I am fully aware of that, thanks, but thats information everyone has and its been out there awhile which makes it worthless. My only approach to this thing outside of taking the precautions to keep myself and my family safe, is to find the most efficient ways to make money through the markets. All the Buffett disciples here and I cant help at marvel at the incredible amount of emotion and fear fueling everything. The master would be proud. Be scared and panic when everyone is scared and panicking I believe is his storied quote! Maybe we should start reciting all those old "sayings" value investors seem to regurgitate during normal times...Nah, fuck it, everything going to zero! Only thing about Buffett we do know, is the geezer was just buying airline stocks... The other element here is the "I guarantee we ll have more cases" crowd. No shit, lol! I can do that too! I bet you tomorrow we will have more cases. And the day after a higher amount. And then when it happens I ll declare, OMG I was right! But if the broader markets wants to play this game where we take 2-3% of the S&P every time we have a few hundred(or even thousand) more cases...I'll take the other side, all day. Eventually we'll either go to 0 on the index and then people will pick their heads up and realize we still have people and companies left and then...whooops, or at some point this nonsense is priced in and the market will stop declining at such a spectacular rate. I've said numerous times how Ive probably never seen a more fertile ground for stock specific long/short strategies than right now. Its incredible. But at some point you have to look at totally unaffected names down 25% and at least question it. Or even, maybe down the line, look at cruise ship operations and realize, damn, these are some pretty fucking moaty businesses and the most likely scenario longer term is, just like with airlines after 9/11 the narrative gets so far skewed when in reality, because of it, you'll likely find few places in the world safer than a cruise ship the same way the safest place to be in 2002 was in an airport or on a plane...thats contrarian thinking though. But its worth considering longer term. I have no position in any cruise ship and dont intend to take one any time soon, but its food for thought. Wuhan did all they could to spread the damn thing and then afterwards locked it all down and voila, like maybe less than 1% of the entire population had this and a few thousand died. And this also factors in Wuhan being very significantly different than US in terms of their social layouts. Oh, and now theyre basically done with it and getting back to life. Despite their inferior healthcare system and many parts of the country being third world like. But instead people conveniently want to play both sides. Numbers are low because "we cant trust them", but then "oh look how China handled it so much better". I dont care about either. Only thing I care about is when and how soon their activity gets back to normal. It appears thats happening. If more data comes in, and dots can further be connected, I think it will solidify this conviction. Some people want to vent politics, fine. Good use of your time screaming "theyre not testing" and then when they do test, scream "see look at all the cases!". A rational thinker knows theres way more cases being reported and S&P companies didn't just lose a few trillions in IV because we started testing a confirmed it. There is a good likelihood this has been around much longer than we realize, its worked its way through populations, and its not nearly as severe as its portrayed. The data, has so far indicated that the consumer has not been effected. China is ramping back up. Its a virus. Warm weather helps. Its 60 degrees in early March in NJ right now.... Get a grip people. Or keep being emotional and panic. Stocks are going to be worthless any day....Go ahead.
Guest cherzeca Posted March 8, 2020 Posted March 8, 2020 "Edit: it is unlikely virus has been here for months because deaths start happening about 3 weeks after infection." this is absurd. deaths have been happening all along. some that are attributable to covid19, some not. only the news/panic has focused upon covid19 as a potential cause. it has likely been here since January...as well as other viruses causing death. deaths from covid19 didn't start happening because cnn told you it was happening. you are buying into the hysteria
Dalal.Holdings Posted March 8, 2020 Posted March 8, 2020 I can give you some perspective from the front lines. I work in an urgent care and for the last couple of weeks have been seeing many cases of pts that present with symptoms way worse then common cold but test negative for flu A/B. Our flu test is 94% sensitive and source from Mckesson. Our current protocol is unless the pt has travel outside of the US within the last 30 days to not call local DOH. So you guys tell me. What virus is going around that presents like the flu, fever, chills, some have body aches, cough, some sore throat that presents way more severe then rhinosinusitis (common cold) but is flu negative. Being thorough I have done chest x rays on all of these patients, no pneumonia or source of infection otherwise and complaint obviously is upper/lower respiratory. I have worked in urgent care/ER for 12 years and maybe its recency bias but cannot remember ordering so many flu tests on people I would bet have the flu, but they come back negative. H1N1 was a different story of course, "everyone" had the flu. I was talking about this with other providers who have noticed the same and honestly it didn't dawn on me till I was thinking about this thread a couple days back that maybe....it could be....the corona virus? What gives though how come no one in my city has come on freaking out or freaks out when I tell them, listen "you have viral symptoms not consistent/way more severe then common cold but your flu is negative." Not one patient has questioned me yet about corona virus yet, but at the same time there are no confirmed cases in my city/area. What blows my mind though is that there are only 400-500 (or whatever the latest figure is) of cases in a city such as NYC. There is no way IMO. How the hell does a virus so contagious with an incubation period of 2-4-14 days only infect that many people in one of the most densely populated cities in the world? My uneducated opinion is that the virus has been in the US for months, the vast, vast, vast majority are people that I describe above and there have been hundreds of thousands of cases on tested/recovered in the US. This is actually something I think is very real. People who dont know it, are living and dealing with this. Start spreading panic though, and people with fucking allergies are bombarding hospitals and hotlines because they have a sneeze. With respect to John's posted report, I am fully aware of that, thanks, but thats information everyone has and its been out there awhile which makes it worthless. My only approach to this thing outside of taking the precautions to keep myself and my family safe, is to find the most efficient ways to make money through the markets. All the Buffett disciples here and I cant help at marvel at the incredible amount of emotion and fear fueling everything. The master would be proud. Be scared and panic when everyone is scared and panicking I believe is his storied quote! Maybe we should start reciting all those old "sayings" value investors seem to regurgitate during normal times...Nah, fuck it, everything going to zero! Only thing about Buffett we do know, is the geezer was just buying airline stocks... The other element here is the "I guarantee we ll have more cases" crowd. No shit, lol! I can do that too! I bet you tomorrow we will have more cases. And the day after a higher amount. And then when it happens I ll declare, OMG I was right! But if the broader markets wants to play this game where we take 2-3% of the S&P every time we have a few hundred(or even thousand) more cases...I'll take the other side, all day. Eventually we'll either go to 0 on the index and then people will pick their heads up and realize we still have people and companies left and then...whooops, or at some point this nonsense is priced in and the market will stop declining at such a spectacular rate. I've said numerous times how Ive probably never seen a more fertile ground for stock specific long/short strategies than right now. Its incredible. But at some point you have to look at totally unaffected names down 25% and at least question it. Or even, maybe down the line, look at cruise ship operations and realize, damn, these are some pretty fucking moaty businesses and the most likely scenario longer term is, just like with airlines after 9/11 the narrative gets so far skewed when in reality, because of it, you'll likely find few places in the world safer than a cruise ship the same way the safest place to be in 2002 was in an airport or on a plane...thats contrarian thinking though. But its worth considering longer term. I have no position in any cruise ship and dont intend to take one any time soon, but its food for thought. Wuhan did all they could to spread the damn thing and then afterwards locked it all down and voila, like maybe less than 1% of the entire population had this and a few thousand died. And this also factors in Wuhan being very significantly different than US in terms of their social layouts. Oh, and now theyre basically done with it and getting back to life. Despite their inferior healthcare system and many parts of the country being third world like. But instead people conveniently want to play both sides. Numbers are low because "we cant trust them", but then "oh look how China handled it so much better". I dont care about either. Only thing I care about is when and how soon their activity gets back to normal. It appears thats happening. If more data comes in, and dots can further be connected, I think it will solidify this conviction. Some people want to vent politics, fine. Good use of your time screaming "theyre not testing" and then when they do test, scream "see look at all the cases!". A rational thinker knows theres way more cases being reported and S&P companies didn't just lose a few trillions in IV because we started testing a confirmed it. There is a good likelihood this has been around much longer than we realize, its worked its way through populations, and its not nearly as severe as its portrayed. The data, has so far indicated that the consumer has not been effected. China is ramping back up. Its a virus. Warm weather helps. Its 60 degrees in early March in NJ right now.... Get a grip people. Or keep being emotional and panic. Stocks are going to be worthless any day....Go ahead. Read his post again. There is no politics. Let me highlight it for you: I have worked in urgent care/ER for 12 years and maybe its recency bias but cannot remember ordering so many flu tests on people I would bet have the flu, but they come back negative. H1N1 was a different story of course, "everyone" had the flu. In his medical opinion, these patients have severe symptoms of something more than a cold, resembles a flu, but they are Flu negative. This is not an allergy or hypochondriasis.
Dalal.Holdings Posted March 8, 2020 Posted March 8, 2020 "Edit: it is unlikely virus has been here for months because deaths start happening about 3 weeks after infection." this is absurd. deaths have been happening all along. some that are attributable to covid19, some not. only the news/panic has focused upon covid19 as a potential cause. it has likely been here since January...as well as other viruses causing death. deaths from covid19 didn't start happening because cnn told you it was happening. you are buying into the hysteria You have no idea what you are talking about. You need to follow a prospective cohort to see how deaths evolve, it cannot be looked at retrospectively. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/31994742 The median number of days from the occurence of the first symptom to death was 14.0 (range 6-41) days, and it tended to be shorter among people aged 70 years or more (11.5 [range 6-19] days) than those aged less than 70 years (20 [range 10-41] days; P = .033). Translation: the deaths are yet to come.
Gregmal Posted March 8, 2020 Posted March 8, 2020 I can give you some perspective from the front lines. I work in an urgent care and for the last couple of weeks have been seeing many cases of pts that present with symptoms way worse then common cold but test negative for flu A/B. Our flu test is 94% sensitive and source from Mckesson. Our current protocol is unless the pt has travel outside of the US within the last 30 days to not call local DOH. So you guys tell me. What virus is going around that presents like the flu, fever, chills, some have body aches, cough, some sore throat that presents way more severe then rhinosinusitis (common cold) but is flu negative. Being thorough I have done chest x rays on all of these patients, no pneumonia or source of infection otherwise and complaint obviously is upper/lower respiratory. I have worked in urgent care/ER for 12 years and maybe its recency bias but cannot remember ordering so many flu tests on people I would bet have the flu, but they come back negative. H1N1 was a different story of course, "everyone" had the flu. I was talking about this with other providers who have noticed the same and honestly it didn't dawn on me till I was thinking about this thread a couple days back that maybe....it could be....the corona virus? What gives though how come no one in my city has come on freaking out or freaks out when I tell them, listen "you have viral symptoms not consistent/way more severe then common cold but your flu is negative." Not one patient has questioned me yet about corona virus yet, but at the same time there are no confirmed cases in my city/area. What blows my mind though is that there are only 400-500 (or whatever the latest figure is) of cases in a city such as NYC. There is no way IMO. How the hell does a virus so contagious with an incubation period of 2-4-14 days only infect that many people in one of the most densely populated cities in the world? My uneducated opinion is that the virus has been in the US for months, the vast, vast, vast majority are people that I describe above and there have been hundreds of thousands of cases on tested/recovered in the US. This is actually something I think is very real. People who dont know it, are living and dealing with this. Start spreading panic though, and people with fucking allergies are bombarding hospitals and hotlines because they have a sneeze. With respect to John's posted report, I am fully aware of that, thanks, but thats information everyone has and its been out there awhile which makes it worthless. My only approach to this thing outside of taking the precautions to keep myself and my family safe, is to find the most efficient ways to make money through the markets. All the Buffett disciples here and I cant help at marvel at the incredible amount of emotion and fear fueling everything. The master would be proud. Be scared and panic when everyone is scared and panicking I believe is his storied quote! Maybe we should start reciting all those old "sayings" value investors seem to regurgitate during normal times...Nah, fuck it, everything going to zero! Only thing about Buffett we do know, is the geezer was just buying airline stocks... The other element here is the "I guarantee we ll have more cases" crowd. No shit, lol! I can do that too! I bet you tomorrow we will have more cases. And the day after a higher amount. And then when it happens I ll declare, OMG I was right! But if the broader markets wants to play this game where we take 2-3% of the S&P every time we have a few hundred(or even thousand) more cases...I'll take the other side, all day. Eventually we'll either go to 0 on the index and then people will pick their heads up and realize we still have people and companies left and then...whooops, or at some point this nonsense is priced in and the market will stop declining at such a spectacular rate. I've said numerous times how Ive probably never seen a more fertile ground for stock specific long/short strategies than right now. Its incredible. But at some point you have to look at totally unaffected names down 25% and at least question it. Or even, maybe down the line, look at cruise ship operations and realize, damn, these are some pretty fucking moaty businesses and the most likely scenario longer term is, just like with airlines after 9/11 the narrative gets so far skewed when in reality, because of it, you'll likely find few places in the world safer than a cruise ship the same way the safest place to be in 2002 was in an airport or on a plane...thats contrarian thinking though. But its worth considering longer term. I have no position in any cruise ship and dont intend to take one any time soon, but its food for thought. Wuhan did all they could to spread the damn thing and then afterwards locked it all down and voila, like maybe less than 1% of the entire population had this and a few thousand died. And this also factors in Wuhan being very significantly different than US in terms of their social layouts. Oh, and now theyre basically done with it and getting back to life. Despite their inferior healthcare system and many parts of the country being third world like. But instead people conveniently want to play both sides. Numbers are low because "we cant trust them", but then "oh look how China handled it so much better". I dont care about either. Only thing I care about is when and how soon their activity gets back to normal. It appears thats happening. If more data comes in, and dots can further be connected, I think it will solidify this conviction. Some people want to vent politics, fine. Good use of your time screaming "theyre not testing" and then when they do test, scream "see look at all the cases!". A rational thinker knows theres way more cases being reported and S&P companies didn't just lose a few trillions in IV because we started testing a confirmed it. There is a good likelihood this has been around much longer than we realize, its worked its way through populations, and its not nearly as severe as its portrayed. The data, has so far indicated that the consumer has not been effected. China is ramping back up. Its a virus. Warm weather helps. Its 60 degrees in early March in NJ right now.... Get a grip people. Or keep being emotional and panic. Stocks are going to be worthless any day....Go ahead. Read his post again. There is no politics. Let me highlight it for you: I have worked in urgent care/ER for 12 years and maybe its recency bias but cannot remember ordering so many flu tests on people I would bet have the flu, but they come back negative. H1N1 was a different story of course, "everyone" had the flu. In his medical opinion, these patients have severe symptoms of something more than a cold, resembles a flu, but they are Flu negative. This is not an allergy or hypochondriasis. Ok, and were did all these people go? They died and no one reported it? They are still in critical condition but not reported? Or they recovered? If that is the case where orthopa works, Id say it has to be the case elsewhere. Or is it only where orthopa is? Or is orthopa a liar? Which is it? At some point all this stuff converges and its not enough to just say "MOAR CASES!". It is highly likely this has been here a while and life was normal as was the economy. It is highly likely that pretty much all numbers we have are wrong. It is very likely, if only 1% of Wuhan got it, and a few thousand died, that we should be in better shape than that. Do you have any clue about US geography? You think this spreads better in NYC or the suburbs? VS Wuhan city center during the Chinese New Year!
Dalal.Holdings Posted March 8, 2020 Posted March 8, 2020 Ok, and were did all these people go? They died and no one reported it? They are still in critical condition but not reported? Or they recovered? If that is the case where orthopa works, Id say it has to be the case elsewhere. Or is it only where orthopa is? Or is orthopa a liar? Which is it? At some point all this stuff converges and its not enough to just say "MOAR CASES!". It is highly likely this has been here a while and life was normal as was the economy. It is highly likely that pretty much all numbers we have are wrong. It is very likely, if only 1% of Wuhan got it, and a few thousand died, that we should be in better shape than that. Do you have any clue about US geography? You think this spreads better in NYC or the suburbs? VS Wuhan city center during the Chinese New Year! See above. There is a median two week delay from symptom onset to mortality. And there is about another week from when you catch the virus to when you experience symptoms. Hence about 3 weeks total. The infections are relatively new in the United States. You are starting to see mortality pop up in WA and you will likely see it pop up elsewhere. If you think it has been here for months, you are kidding yourself.
Guest cherzeca Posted March 8, 2020 Posted March 8, 2020 @dalal what are you buying now, other than your own bullshit "The infections are relatively new in the United States." as if you or anyone knows this... tell me where your money is, because we know where your judgment is. or do you not have any money?
Dalal.Holdings Posted March 8, 2020 Posted March 8, 2020 @dalal what are you buying now, other than your own bullshit "The infections are relatively new in the United States." as if you or anyone knows this... tell me where your money is, because we know where your judgment is. or do you not have any money? If you are as confident as you are that you are correct, the financial markets are providing you plentiful opportunities to profit handsomely. Why are you wasting your time arguing on this website? In my opinion, when faced with a highly uncertain, tail risk type situation like this, precaution is the best measure one should take. This is largely based on my readings of Taleb. My thoughts about the virus spread, etc are based on my education. I hope I am wrong so that people do not get hurt (I mean medically more-so than financially). Now obviously there is a lot of disagreement on this and confidence that it will blow over, but I invoke the precautionary principle here.
orthopa Posted March 8, 2020 Posted March 8, 2020 I can give you some perspective from the front lines. I work in an urgent care and for the last couple of weeks have been seeing many cases of pts that present with symptoms way worse then common cold but test negative for flu A/B. Our flu test is 94% sensitive and source from Mckesson. Our current protocol is unless the pt has travel outside of the US within the last 30 days to not call local DOH. So you guys tell me. What virus is going around that presents like the flu, fever, chills, some have body aches, cough, some sore throat that presents way more severe then rhinosinusitis (common cold) but is flu negative. Being thorough I have done chest x rays on all of these patients, no pneumonia or source of infection otherwise and complaint obviously is upper/lower respiratory. I have worked in urgent care/ER for 12 years and maybe its recency bias but cannot remember ordering so many flu tests on people I would bet have the flu, but they come back negative. H1N1 was a different story of course, "everyone" had the flu. I was talking about this with other providers who have noticed the same and honestly it didn't dawn on me till I was thinking about this thread a couple days back that maybe....it could be....the corona virus? What gives though how come no one in my city has come on freaking out or freaks out when I tell them, listen "you have viral symptoms not consistent/way more severe then common cold but your flu is negative." Not one patient has questioned me yet about corona virus yet, but at the same time there are no confirmed cases in my city/area. What blows my mind though is that there are only 400-500 (or whatever the latest figure is) of cases in a city such as NYC. There is no way IMO. How the hell does a virus so contagious with an incubation period of 2-4-14 days only infect that many people in one of the most densely populated cities in the world? My uneducated opinion is that the virus has been in the US for months, the vast, vast, vast majority are people that I describe above and there have been hundreds of thousands of cases on tested/recovered in the US. With all due respect... no shit? It is very obviously everywhere. I'm not sure why you are trying to quote reported #'s when the reported numbers are clearly irrelevant given undertesting. Italy had 20 cases 2 weeks ago. Look at Italy today. So if the numbers are way more inflated then what is being reported, deaths relatively speaking are minimal other then those that are at high risk, and there there is no cure, Whats the fucking problem?
Guest cherzeca Posted March 8, 2020 Posted March 8, 2020 "In my opinion, when faced with a highly uncertain, tail risk type situation like this, precaution is the best measure one should take. This is largely based on my readings of Taleb" wrong. Taleb would argue for a barbell strategy. I know Taleb well. what is on the risk side of your barbell?
Dalal.Holdings Posted March 8, 2020 Posted March 8, 2020 "In my opinion, when faced with a highly uncertain, tail risk type situation like this, precaution is the best measure one should take. This is largely based on my readings of Taleb" wrong. Taleb would argue for a barbell strategy. I know Taleb well. what is on the risk side of your barbell? Go look at Taleb's twitter account right now. Lol.
Dalal.Holdings Posted March 8, 2020 Posted March 8, 2020 And here is the concept being missed here folks: If there is exponential growth (20% a day), there have been more cases added recently than in the distant past. That means of the current # of confirmed cases, MOST are recent infections. If there is a 2-3 week delay to mortality, it means that we will not know true mortality until we see how those recent onset cases evolve over a few weeks. Hence mortality will appear low because it is still early in the disease course for those individuals who just caught it!
Gregmal Posted March 8, 2020 Posted March 8, 2020 "In my opinion, when faced with a highly uncertain, tail risk type situation like this, precaution is the best measure one should take. This is largely based on my readings of Taleb" wrong. Taleb would argue for a barbell strategy. I know Taleb well. what is on the risk side of your barbell? Dalal owns RCL puts with a $9 per month carry lol. Of course he bought them weeks ago and is up big time! The "Washington deaths are exploding" narrative is also deliberately misleading nonsense. An entire nursing home got infected and through mismanagement and probably some bad luck, many of those folks will die. That is hardly, at all a sample size or point of data any reasonable person would use. You seem to be incredibly dedicated to this on your twitter as well.
Gregmal Posted March 8, 2020 Posted March 8, 2020 And here is the concept being missed here folks: If there is exponential growth (20% a day), there have been more cases added recently than in the distant past. That means of the current # of confirmed cases, MOST are recent infections. If there is a 2-3 week delay to mortality, it means that we will not know true mortality until we see how those recent onset cases evolve over a few weeks. Hence mortality will appear low because it is still early in the disease course for those individuals who just caught it! 3000 deaths in China, and its on the decline. But yea, exponential growth for the win! Or do you have some data that suggests Americans are more prone to death than Chinese folks?
Dalal.Holdings Posted March 8, 2020 Posted March 8, 2020 "In my opinion, when faced with a highly uncertain, tail risk type situation like this, precaution is the best measure one should take. This is largely based on my readings of Taleb" wrong. Taleb would argue for a barbell strategy. I know Taleb well. what is on the risk side of your barbell? Dalal owns RCL puts with a $9 per month carry lol. Of course he bought them weeks ago and is up big time! The "Washington deaths are exploding" narrative is also deliberately misleading nonsense. An entire nursing home got infected and through mismanagement and probably some bad luck, many of those folks will die. That is hardly, at all a sample size or point of data any reasonable person would use. You seem to be incredibly dedicated to this on your twitter as well. A wise man once said "an ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure". That message seems lost on some here, sadly. Not to worry, we will know soon enough who is correct--like I said, Chinese studies showed median 2 weeks from symptoms to mortality. I hope I am wrong, but I am preparing for the worst and utilizing social media to encourage people (esp those > 50 years old) to take precautions.
Guest cherzeca Posted March 8, 2020 Posted March 8, 2020 "In my opinion, when faced with a highly uncertain, tail risk type situation like this, precaution is the best measure one should take. This is largely based on my readings of Taleb" wrong. Taleb would argue for a barbell strategy. I know Taleb well. what is on the risk side of your barbell? Go look at Taleb's twitter account right now. Lol. Dalal, you dont know what you are talking about, this is clear. this is a perfect time for you to tell us how you prepared to deal with a risk off/blackish swan situation. you might say, before this correction, one barbell is short term treasuries (although long term would have yielded more gain) and the other barbell is any number of optional longs...which optional longs you would have increased slightly as the market went down. and then there is his catastrophe hedge fund, which is for the bigger ticket crowd. I am long short term cash and catalyst driven optional longs, with increasing spy as the market trends lower. you are long what? stupidity? but you dont have anything to offer other than cnn. anyone who thinks that covid19 just entered US in last few weeks is to be ignored.
Dalal.Holdings Posted March 8, 2020 Posted March 8, 2020 "In my opinion, when faced with a highly uncertain, tail risk type situation like this, precaution is the best measure one should take. This is largely based on my readings of Taleb" wrong. Taleb would argue for a barbell strategy. I know Taleb well. what is on the risk side of your barbell? Go look at Taleb's twitter account right now. Lol. Dalal, you dont know what you are talking about, this is clear. this is a perfect time for you to tell us how you prepared to deal with a risk off/blackish swan situation. you might say, before this correction, one barbell is short term treasuries (although long term would have yielded more gain) and the other barbell is any number of optional longs...which optional longs you would have increased slightly as the market went down. and then there is his catastrophe hedge fund, which is for the bigger ticket crowd. I am long short term cash and catalyst driven optional longs, with increasing spy as the market trends lower. you are long what? stupidity? but you dont have anything to offer other than cnn. anyone who thinks that covid19 just entered US in last few weeks is to be ignored. I have already posted here. You seem to have some weird fetish with cnn. I never mentioned them. Strange. I sold chunks of stocks and have a good amt of cash. That WEB quote about cash being a call option with no expiry on any asset stuck with me. And yes, I also do have some cruise line puts but I do not like shorting companies in general because people will get hurt, but I view a secular hit to that industry and it is capital intensive and they are debt heavy. You people are tiring and it's late, so I will bid adieu. I just want to say one thing: if I am wrong, then the worst thing that happens is that I look silly. But if I am right--my hope is that I have caused some people to become more concerned than they would have been and to take precautions (not panic) in the chance that I am correct. Perhaps ensure that people they care about who are elderly are taking extra measures for safety. Now let me ask you: if you are correct, what is the benefit of your incessant arguing on how silly this all is on this website? I mean you could quietly and handsomely profit off of this nothing burger that is being blown out of proportion... There is an asymmetry here.
Guest cherzeca Posted March 8, 2020 Posted March 8, 2020 if only you would bid adieu. I am guessing it is more a bientot. so if you sold chunks of stock you are late. and if your time horizon is not longish such that you should not have sold, then maybe you it should be...but then maybe you dont think in years but rather days. I guess we are all day to day. and if you are the proud owner of soon to be put cruise line stocks then bon voyage. and cash is not a call option on anything other than paying your rent bill, in which case I am pleased to hear you are not homeless. and I figure you do sit at home and watch a lot of cnn...but excuse me if it is msnbc
Gregmal Posted March 8, 2020 Posted March 8, 2020 "In my opinion, when faced with a highly uncertain, tail risk type situation like this, precaution is the best measure one should take. This is largely based on my readings of Taleb" wrong. Taleb would argue for a barbell strategy. I know Taleb well. what is on the risk side of your barbell? Dalal owns RCL puts with a $9 per month carry lol. Of course he bought them weeks ago and is up big time! The "Washington deaths are exploding" narrative is also deliberately misleading nonsense. An entire nursing home got infected and through mismanagement and probably some bad luck, many of those folks will die. That is hardly, at all a sample size or point of data any reasonable person would use. You seem to be incredibly dedicated to this on your twitter as well. A wise man once said "an ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure". That message seems lost on some here, sadly. Not to worry, we will know soon enough who is correct--like I said, Chinese studies showed median 2 weeks from symptoms to mortality. I hope I am wrong, but I am preparing for the best and utilizing social media to encourage people (esp those > 50 years old) to take precautions. You are long on sayings and short on substance and where it shows most is with data points like the Washington death count. It is a deliberate misrepresentation and nothing in total that has any distinction from folks who over this weekend died from the flu but didn't get any media attention. That is ultimately the difference here. Viking and others seem to have a leaning with where they suspect things may go, but make an effort to at least present things honestly and with opinion. You present things one sidedly and with intentional omissions. Most importantly, you have failed to substantiate many of these claims as to why the US is different with regard to how severely this will play out. Which makes little sense until you then look at the likely culprit should the US be an outlier, and then it all kind of makes sense.
SnarkyPuppy Posted March 8, 2020 Posted March 8, 2020 "In my opinion, when faced with a highly uncertain, tail risk type situation like this, precaution is the best measure one should take. This is largely based on my readings of Taleb" wrong. Taleb would argue for a barbell strategy. I know Taleb well. what is on the risk side of your barbell? Why are you ignoring my prior questions? Do you think Taleb is a fool for stating a 20d quarantine needs to happen now? Why does it seem like you have a political view you are reverse engineering from when the person you are arguing hasn't mentioned 1 ounce of politics? Very bizarre. My view on the social media hysteria thesis mentioned earlier in this thread is that it is correct, but misses the final result. We are so used to hysteria and overreactions that when something w/ actual risk comes along, like pavlovs dog we go "look at them overreacting"
Dalal.Holdings Posted March 8, 2020 Posted March 8, 2020 "In my opinion, when faced with a highly uncertain, tail risk type situation like this, precaution is the best measure one should take. This is largely based on my readings of Taleb" wrong. Taleb would argue for a barbell strategy. I know Taleb well. what is on the risk side of your barbell? Dalal owns RCL puts with a $9 per month carry lol. Of course he bought them weeks ago and is up big time! The "Washington deaths are exploding" narrative is also deliberately misleading nonsense. An entire nursing home got infected and through mismanagement and probably some bad luck, many of those folks will die. That is hardly, at all a sample size or point of data any reasonable person would use. You seem to be incredibly dedicated to this on your twitter as well. A wise man once said "an ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure". That message seems lost on some here, sadly. Not to worry, we will know soon enough who is correct--like I said, Chinese studies showed median 2 weeks from symptoms to mortality. I hope I am wrong, but I am preparing for the best and utilizing social media to encourage people (esp those > 50 years old) to take precautions. You are long on sayings and short on substance and where it shows most is with data points like the Washington death count. It is a deliberate misrepresentation and nothing in total that has any distinction from folks who over this weekend died from the flu but didn't get any media attention. That is ultimately the difference here. Viking and others seem to have a leaning with where they suspect things may go, but make an effort to at least present things honestly and with opinion. You present things one sidedly and with intentional omissions. Most importantly, you have failed to substantiate many of these claims as to why the US is different with regard to how severely this will play out. Which makes little sense until you then look at the likely culprit should the US be an outlier, and then it all kind of makes sense. Ok bro. See you in a few weeks. We'll have the verdict in by then. Out.
LC Posted March 8, 2020 Posted March 8, 2020 And here is the concept being missed here folks: If there is exponential growth (20% a day), there have been more cases added recently than in the distant past. That means of the current # of confirmed cases, MOST are recent infections. If there is a 2-3 week delay to mortality, it means that we will not know true mortality until we see how those recent onset cases evolve over a few weeks. Hence mortality will appear low because it is still early in the disease course for those individuals who just caught it! 3000 deaths in China, and its on the decline. But yea, exponential growth for the win! Or do you have some data that suggests Americans are more prone to death than Chinese folks? Forget China- the case in Italy is most illustrative because we can trust the reporting. The fact that deaths in Italy does not appear exponentially horrific is a very good sign.
Gregmal Posted March 8, 2020 Posted March 8, 2020 "In my opinion, when faced with a highly uncertain, tail risk type situation like this, precaution is the best measure one should take. This is largely based on my readings of Taleb" wrong. Taleb would argue for a barbell strategy. I know Taleb well. what is on the risk side of your barbell? Dalal owns RCL puts with a $9 per month carry lol. Of course he bought them weeks ago and is up big time! The "Washington deaths are exploding" narrative is also deliberately misleading nonsense. An entire nursing home got infected and through mismanagement and probably some bad luck, many of those folks will die. That is hardly, at all a sample size or point of data any reasonable person would use. You seem to be incredibly dedicated to this on your twitter as well. A wise man once said "an ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure". That message seems lost on some here, sadly. Not to worry, we will know soon enough who is correct--like I said, Chinese studies showed median 2 weeks from symptoms to mortality. I hope I am wrong, but I am preparing for the best and utilizing social media to encourage people (esp those > 50 years old) to take precautions. You are long on sayings and short on substance and where it shows most is with data points like the Washington death count. It is a deliberate misrepresentation and nothing in total that has any distinction from folks who over this weekend died from the flu but didn't get any media attention. That is ultimately the difference here. Viking and others seem to have a leaning with where they suspect things may go, but make an effort to at least present things honestly and with opinion. You present things one sidedly and with intentional omissions. Most importantly, you have failed to substantiate many of these claims as to why the US is different with regard to how severely this will play out. Which makes little sense until you then look at the likely culprit should the US be an outlier, and then it all kind of makes sense. Ok bro. See you in a few weeks. We'll have the verdict in by then. Out. Which is fine and all, but again we come back to "see what" in a few weeks? RCL files for bankruptcy? A further 20% market drop? 10,000 US deaths? Or just more pom pom waving because you correctly predicted more cases would emerge?
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