Dalal.Holdings Posted June 21, 2020 Posted June 21, 2020 It's funny that after all this time, the conventional idea of how to mitigate this is converging on the original one: protect the old and vulnerable and everyone else be careful. What’s funny is that you fail to see that the convergence is only happening in places that failed to control this early on. S Korea, Japan, much of EU and even Italy and Spain now are doing well due to less new cases thanks to aggressive lockdowns and measures nationwide when it counted. The countries that are “converging” to your (brutal) strategy of essentially herd immunity are the ones that failed to control this when they had a chance thanks to laissez faire attitude—USA, Sweden, etc. And let me tell you—even without lockdown, and with “isolating the elderly”, many will perish and the economy will suffer for very long time with this strategy. Equivalent to the Grandma Rule: eating your carrots before you move onto dessert, USA didn’t eat its carrots so there will be no dessert. There are places in USA that did strap down like NY and NJ and so their new cases have plummeted, but that effort may now be in vain due to a surge in southern states. Other countries, particularly in EU will be able to move one from here because they ate their carrots. They will be in dessert phase while US muddies along with “seniors isolated” and months, maybe years of reduced economic output while you try to achieve that herd immunity... Thanks to pretty much no central (federal) leadership, USA will now learn what happens when you go from pandemic to endemic...
jamesmadison Posted June 21, 2020 Posted June 21, 2020 It's funny that after all this time, the conventional idea of how to mitigate this is converging on the original one: protect the old and vulnerable and everyone else be careful. What’s funny is that you fail to see that the convergence is only happening in places that failed to control this early on. S Korea, Japan, much of EU and even Italy and Spain now are doing well due to less new cases thanks to aggressive lockdowns and measures nationwide. The countries that are “converging” to your (brutal) strategy of essentially herd immunity are the ones that failed to control this when they had a chance thanks to laissez faire attitude—USA, Sweden, etc. And let me tell you—even without lockdown, and with “isolating the elderly”, many will perish and the economy will suffer for very long time with this strategy. Equivalent to the Grandma Rule: eating your carrots before you move onto dessert, USA didn’t eat its carrots so there will be no dessert. There are places in USA that did strap down like NY and NJ and so their new cases have plummeted, but that effort may now be in vain due to a surge in southern states. Other countries, particularly in EU will be able to move one from here because they ate their carrots. They will be in dessert phase while US muddies along with “seniors isolated” and months, maybe years of reduced economic output while you try to achieve that herd immunity... Thanks to pretty much no central (federal) leadership, USA will now learn what happens when you go from pandemic to endemic... You are listing NY and NJ as examples of places in the US that "ate their veggies". I find it astonishing that you would list the two states with the worst per capita covid death rates (4x the national average!!) as positive examples. You mention Spain and Italy as now doing well and call out Sweden, ignoring the simple fact that Sweden's per capita Covid death rate is lower than Italy and Spain. I am sorry, but this is not a persuasive argument. The evidence simply does not support that argument that Lockdowns (or Social Mobility) are what's driving the level of Covid mortality.
Dalal.Holdings Posted June 21, 2020 Posted June 21, 2020 It's funny that after all this time, the conventional idea of how to mitigate this is converging on the original one: protect the old and vulnerable and everyone else be careful. What’s funny is that you fail to see that the convergence is only happening in places that failed to control this early on. S Korea, Japan, much of EU and even Italy and Spain now are doing well due to less new cases thanks to aggressive lockdowns and measures nationwide. The countries that are “converging” to your (brutal) strategy of essentially herd immunity are the ones that failed to control this when they had a chance thanks to laissez faire attitude—USA, Sweden, etc. And let me tell you—even without lockdown, and with “isolating the elderly”, many will perish and the economy will suffer for very long time with this strategy. Equivalent to the Grandma Rule: eating your carrots before you move onto dessert, USA didn’t eat its carrots so there will be no dessert. There are places in USA that did strap down like NY and NJ and so their new cases have plummeted, but that effort may now be in vain due to a surge in southern states. Other countries, particularly in EU will be able to move one from here because they ate their carrots. They will be in dessert phase while US muddies along with “seniors isolated” and months, maybe years of reduced economic output while you try to achieve that herd immunity... Thanks to pretty much no central (federal) leadership, USA will now learn what happens when you go from pandemic to endemic... You are listing NY and NJ as examples of places in the US that "ate their veggies". I find it astonishing that you would list the two states with the worst per capita covid death rates (4x the national average!!) as positive examples. You mention Spain and Italy as now doing well and call out Sweden, ignoring the simple fact that Sweden's per capita Covid death rate is lower than Italy and Spain. I am sorry, but this is not a persuasive argument. The evidence simply does not support that argument that Lockdowns (or Social Mobility) are what's driving the level of Covid mortality. I can’t help you. Good luck with that regression.
jamesmadison Posted June 21, 2020 Posted June 21, 2020 And to be clear, given the staggering economic and social costs of the lockdowns, those arguing for them must demonstrate their worth, not the other way around.
jamesmadison Posted June 21, 2020 Posted June 21, 2020 It's funny that after all this time, the conventional idea of how to mitigate this is converging on the original one: protect the old and vulnerable and everyone else be careful. What’s funny is that you fail to see that the convergence is only happening in places that failed to control this early on. S Korea, Japan, much of EU and even Italy and Spain now are doing well due to less new cases thanks to aggressive lockdowns and measures nationwide. The countries that are “converging” to your (brutal) strategy of essentially herd immunity are the ones that failed to control this when they had a chance thanks to laissez faire attitude—USA, Sweden, etc. And let me tell you—even without lockdown, and with “isolating the elderly”, many will perish and the economy will suffer for very long time with this strategy. Equivalent to the Grandma Rule: eating your carrots before you move onto dessert, USA didn’t eat its carrots so there will be no dessert. There are places in USA that did strap down like NY and NJ and so their new cases have plummeted, but that effort may now be in vain due to a surge in southern states. Other countries, particularly in EU will be able to move one from here because they ate their carrots. They will be in dessert phase while US muddies along with “seniors isolated” and months, maybe years of reduced economic output while you try to achieve that herd immunity... Thanks to pretty much no central (federal) leadership, USA will now learn what happens when you go from pandemic to endemic... You are listing NY and NJ as examples of places in the US that "ate their veggies". I find it astonishing that you would list the two states with the worst per capita covid death rates (4x the national average!!) as positive examples. You mention Spain and Italy as now doing well and call out Sweden, ignoring the simple fact that Sweden's per capita Covid death rate is lower than Italy and Spain. I am sorry, but this is not a persuasive argument. The evidence simply does not support that argument that Lockdowns (or Social Mobility) are what's driving the level of Covid mortality. I can’t help you. Good luck with that regression. Ditto
Peregrine Posted June 21, 2020 Posted June 21, 2020 It's funny that after all this time, the conventional idea of how to mitigate this is converging on the original one: protect the old and vulnerable and everyone else be careful. What’s funny is that you fail to see that the convergence is only happening in places that failed to control this early on. S Korea, Japan, much of EU and even Italy and Spain now are doing well due to less new cases thanks to aggressive lockdowns and measures nationwide. The countries that are “converging” to your (brutal) strategy of essentially herd immunity are the ones that failed to control this when they had a chance thanks to laissez faire attitude—USA, Sweden, etc. And let me tell you—even without lockdown, and with “isolating the elderly”, many will perish and the economy will suffer for very long time with this strategy. Equivalent to the Grandma Rule: eating your carrots before you move onto dessert, USA didn’t eat its carrots so there will be no dessert. There are places in USA that did strap down like NY and NJ and so their new cases have plummeted, but that effort may now be in vain due to a surge in southern states. Other countries, particularly in EU will be able to move one from here because they ate their carrots. They will be in dessert phase while US muddies along with “seniors isolated” and months, maybe years of reduced economic output while you try to achieve that herd immunity... Thanks to pretty much no central (federal) leadership, USA will now learn what happens when you go from pandemic to endemic... Maybe you misinterpreted my post. The consensus method of mitigating the spread of this disease seems to be converging on 1) protecting the old and vulnerable; and 2) encouraging social norms of being more careful about personal hygiene (including mask wearing) and social distancing. Never once did I mention herd immunity. South Korea and Japan never locked down. Japan has the lowest deaths per capita of any OECD country and this with nearly the oldest population in the world and some of the densest cities in the world.
RichardGibbons Posted June 21, 2020 Posted June 21, 2020 And to be clear, given the staggering economic and social costs of the lockdowns, those arguing for them must demonstrate their worth, not the other way around. Yeah, let's just ignore the potential for millions of deaths on the other side of the scale.
RichardGibbons Posted June 21, 2020 Posted June 21, 2020 Maybe you misinterpreted my post. The consensus method of mitigating the spread of this disease seems to be converging on 1) protecting the old and vulnerable; and 2) encouraging social norms of being more careful about personal hygiene (including mask wearing) and social distancing. Never once did I mention herd immunity. I think you need to add contact tracing too. Largely, the places that have done well have done that.
Peregrine Posted June 21, 2020 Posted June 21, 2020 Maybe you misinterpreted my post. The consensus method of mitigating the spread of this disease seems to be converging on 1) protecting the old and vulnerable; and 2) encouraging social norms of being more careful about personal hygiene (including mask wearing) and social distancing. Never once did I mention herd immunity. I think you need to add contact tracing too. Largely, the places that have done well have done that. That too, though I question the practicality of it in western countries. Japan hasn't done contract tracing yet they've done just two simple things: wash your hands thoroughly and wear masks in crowded indoor settings. I find that example a lot easier for countries to replicate.
SHDL Posted June 21, 2020 Posted June 21, 2020 I dont know Japanese. https://vdata.nikkei.com/en/newsgraphics/coronavirus-economy/
RichardGibbons Posted June 21, 2020 Posted June 21, 2020 That too, though I question the practicality of it in western countries. Japan hasn't done contract tracing yet they've done just two simple things: wash your hands thoroughly and wear masks in crowded indoor settings. I find that example a lot easier for countries to replicate. https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2020/06/19/national/japan-contact-tracing-app-launched/#.Xu-DNndFwls The tool is expected to improve the current tracing system, which is based on interviews with infected people conducted by officials from public health centers.
KCLarkin Posted June 21, 2020 Posted June 21, 2020 You mention Spain and Italy as now doing well and call out Sweden, ignoring the simple fact that Sweden's per capita Covid death rate is lower than Italy and Spain. I am sorry, but this is not a persuasive argument. The evidence simply does not support that argument that Lockdowns (or Social Mobility) are what's driving the level of Covid mortality. James, the virus is driving the level of Covid mortality! Some guy who's taken an intro stats class doing crappy regression analysis without understanding anything about virology or epidemiology isn't going to be able to provide you any evidence. But it is interesting that you and Gato are excluding China from your analysis.
Cigarbutt Posted June 21, 2020 Posted June 21, 2020 ^Japan did use a cluster-approach, which evolved over time and will include the app going forward. The Japan model has positive characteristics but can it be exported "as is"? https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/jun/06/contact-tracing-japan-coronavirus-covid-19-patients-social-etiquette This may become relevant if a second wave occurs. When alluding to what happened in New York and related places and the high number of cluster cases, it's important to retroactively assess what components of the "approach" went wrong but it's also important to remember root and proximate causes. When people retrospectively evaluated the causes behind the sinking of the Titanic, some suggested, rightly, that the management of lifeboats could have been improved.
physdude Posted June 21, 2020 Posted June 21, 2020 Maybe you misinterpreted my post. The consensus method of mitigating the spread of this disease seems to be converging on 1) protecting the old and vulnerable; and 2) encouraging social norms of being more careful about personal hygiene (including mask wearing) and social distancing. Never once did I mention herd immunity. I think you need to add contact tracing too. Largely, the places that have done well have done that. This. A lot of countries have done extremely well due to quick lockdowns when it mattered most and aggressive contract tracing after that. Even the aggressive contact tracing was largely unneeded in countries that locked down quickly enough like Vietnam, Cambodia, Myanmar, Laos, Thailand, New Zealand etc. Some of these countries even got away without a single fatality. Malaysia, where I live, escaped relatively lightly even though it locked down late due to excellent contact tracing, especially of a major initial cluster of several thousand generated from a single infected person in a large religious event. I didn't have much hope of them contact tracing tens of thousands of people from there but, amazingly, they have and new cases have gone down to the low double digits per day now and declining -despite- lifting most of the lockdown restrictions. This is because they had the good sense to lift them only after an effective contact tracing effort was in place. Hopefully, the good results continue but they have surprised me significantly on the positive side so far as I have been waiting for the shoe drop that never came after restrictions were relaxed and then almost completely lifted for domestic travel and activities. The lockdowns are much less use if they are imposed late and lifted before effective contact tracing is in place. Everyone here seems to use only OECD countries for their analysis but they are definitely not the best examples. China is actually a much better example where the lockdown was late by definition because it was new and they were the first to have to deal with it. However, their contact tracing and testing has been very effective and the very few number of cases and fatalities since the lockdown was lifted shows the effectiveness of their approach. (I know, the Western attitude is that it is all lies but my friends living in China and leading pretty normal lives and traveling and touring there makes me discount that more or less completely.) The harsh truth is that North and South America and Western Europe (and also probably South Asia) have handled this poorly both in terms of locking down too late and, in some cases, lifting lockdowns before effective contact tracing was in place (looking at the US here, apparently Western Europe is doing better). It is almost surreal to me that Malaysia, which is corrupt and undergoing constant political upheaval (there was a change of govt right when COVID struck which almost definitely delayed the lockdown), has done so much better than the US or Western Europe.
Peregrine Posted June 21, 2020 Posted June 21, 2020 That too, though I question the practicality of it in western countries. Japan hasn't done contract tracing yet they've done just two simple things: wash your hands thoroughly and wear masks in crowded indoor settings. I find that example a lot easier for countries to replicate. https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2020/06/19/national/japan-contact-tracing-app-launched/#.Xu-DNndFwls The tool is expected to improve the current tracing system, which is based on interviews with infected people conducted by officials from public health centers. That app was launched just recently and as far as I'm aware, Japan hasn't done individual contact tracing like South Korea has. I'd be all for it if an app gets developed, is useful and can be scaled up well.
KCLarkin Posted June 21, 2020 Posted June 21, 2020 And to be clear, given the staggering economic and social costs of the lockdowns, those arguing for them must demonstrate their worth, not the other way around. It's not possible that you have your causation backwards? Physdude makes an excellent point. Almost nobody is talking about Vietnam. A country with 90MM people and 0 Covid deaths. Europe and the Americas failed to control the virus. And they paid the price with heavy lockdowns, deaths, and staggering economic and social costs.
Cigarbutt Posted June 21, 2020 Posted June 21, 2020 That too, though I question the practicality of it in western countries. Japan hasn't done contract tracing yet they've done just two simple things: wash your hands thoroughly and wear masks in crowded indoor settings. I find that example a lot easier for countries to replicate. https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2020/06/19/national/japan-contact-tracing-app-launched/#.Xu-DNndFwls The tool is expected to improve the current tracing system, which is based on interviews with infected people conducted by officials from public health centers. That app was launched just recently and as far as I'm aware, Japan hasn't done individual contact tracing like South Korea has. I'd be all for it if an app gets developed, is useful and can be scaled up well. Japan already had an institutional platform (related to TB it seems) and evolved their tracking to emphasize retrospective tracing. https://asiatimes.com/2020/06/japans-contact-tracing-method-is-old-but-gold/
jamesmadison Posted June 21, 2020 Posted June 21, 2020 You mention Spain and Italy as now doing well and call out Sweden, ignoring the simple fact that Sweden's per capita Covid death rate is lower than Italy and Spain. I am sorry, but this is not a persuasive argument. The evidence simply does not support that argument that Lockdowns (or Social Mobility) are what's driving the level of Covid mortality. James, the virus is driving the level of Covid mortality! Some guy who's taken an intro stats class doing crappy regression analysis without understanding anything about virology or epidemiology isn't going to be able to provide you any evidence. But it is interesting that you and Gato are excluding China from your analysis. "the virus is driving the level of Covid Mortality" - Agreed. What's your point? It certainly has little to nothing to do with the efficacy of lockdowns. Do you seriously believe that China has 4,632 total deaths from Covid and that 2 people have died since April 17th - which is what they claim per Worldometer? The reason any intelligent person excludes China from analysis is that their data is unadulterated garbage.
jamesmadison Posted June 21, 2020 Posted June 21, 2020 And to be clear, given the staggering economic and social costs of the lockdowns, those arguing for them must demonstrate their worth, not the other way around. Yeah, let's just ignore the potential for millions of deaths on the other side of the scale. Snarky and pointless comment. You are not making a case for lockdowns with it. If the health impact from Covid could be mitigated without plunging us into the worst economic downturn since the Great Depression, wouldn't you want to?
jamesmadison Posted June 21, 2020 Posted June 21, 2020 And to be clear, given the staggering economic and social costs of the lockdowns, those arguing for them must demonstrate their worth, not the other way around. It's not possible that you have your causation backwards? Physdude makes an excellent point. Almost nobody is talking about Vietnam. A country with 90MM people and 0 Covid deaths. Europe and the Americas failed to control the virus. And they paid the price with heavy lockdowns, deaths, and staggering economic and social costs. How many times do I need to make the following point. I am NOT arguing FOR causation. Therefore I cannot have something "backwards". I am arguing that there is a LACK of [demonstrated] causation. Big difference. I am not particularly familiar with Vietnam or the mitigation efforts they pursued. You might want to consider two more basic attributes, however: 1. Demographics - Vietnam has a much much younger population than all western countries; and 2. Weather - Hanoi is 21 degrees north vs NYC 41 degrees north You know who else avoided Covid: Eritrea, Syria and Zimbabwe. These are barely functioning countries. I doubt there was much of a well coordinated lockdown strategy. It's something else.
jamesmadison Posted June 21, 2020 Posted June 21, 2020 Maybe you misinterpreted my post. The consensus method of mitigating the spread of this disease seems to be converging on 1) protecting the old and vulnerable; and 2) encouraging social norms of being more careful about personal hygiene (including mask wearing) and social distancing. Never once did I mention herd immunity. I think you need to add contact tracing too. Largely, the places that have done well have done that. Is this part of the crack contact tracing strategy you advocate? https://nypost.com/2020/06/15/coronavirus-contact-tracers-wont-ask-if-new-yorkers-attended-protests/ More garbage data being created. We must be living in a simulation. What else would explain the insanity?
KCLarkin Posted June 21, 2020 Posted June 21, 2020 And to be clear, given the staggering economic and social costs of the lockdowns, those arguing for them must demonstrate their worth, not the other way around. It's not possible that you have your causation backwards? Physdude makes an excellent point. Almost nobody is talking about Vietnam. A country with 90MM people and 0 Covid deaths. Europe and the Americas failed to control the virus. And they paid the price with heavy lockdowns, deaths, and staggering economic and social costs. How many times do I need to make the following point. I am NOT arguing FOR causation. Therefore I cannot have something "backwards". I am arguing that there is a LACK of [demonstrated] causation. Big difference. I am not particularly familiar with Vietnam or the mitigation efforts they pursued. You might want to consider two more basic attributes, however: 1. Demographics - Vietnam has a much much younger population than all western countries; and 2. Weather - Hanoi is 21 degrees north vs NYC 41 degrees north You know who else avoided Covid: Eritrea, Syria and Zimbabwe. These are barely functioning countries. I doubt there was much of a well coordinated lockdown strategy. It's something else. Yup, I am willing to admit demographics and climate might impact death rates and transmission. Which is one of the many reasons why I think Gato’s analysis is pointless and stupid — he doesn’t control for any confounding factors. There is zero possibility of proving any evidence for or against lockdowns using his methodology. I don’t trust China’s data. I also don’t trust Italy, Spain, NY, Or Florida. Reason #971 why Gato’s analysis is stupid. All the data is messy and inconsistent.
jamesmadison Posted June 21, 2020 Posted June 21, 2020 And to be clear, given the staggering economic and social costs of the lockdowns, those arguing for them must demonstrate their worth, not the other way around. It's not possible that you have your causation backwards? Physdude makes an excellent point. Almost nobody is talking about Vietnam. A country with 90MM people and 0 Covid deaths. Europe and the Americas failed to control the virus. And they paid the price with heavy lockdowns, deaths, and staggering economic and social costs. How many times do I need to make the following point. I am NOT arguing FOR causation. Therefore I cannot have something "backwards". I am arguing that there is a LACK of [demonstrated] causation. Big difference. I am not particularly familiar with Vietnam or the mitigation efforts they pursued. You might want to consider two more basic attributes, however: 1. Demographics - Vietnam has a much much younger population than all western countries; and 2. Weather - Hanoi is 21 degrees north vs NYC 41 degrees north You know who else avoided Covid: Eritrea, Syria and Zimbabwe. These are barely functioning countries. I doubt there was much of a well coordinated lockdown strategy. It's something else. Yup, I am willing to admit demographics and climate might impact death rates and transmission. Which is one of the many reasons why I think Gato’s analysis is pointless and stupid — he doesn’t control for any confounding factors. There is zero possibility of proving any evidence for or against lockdowns using his methodology. I don’t trust China’s data. I also don’t trust Italy, Spain, NY, Or Florida. Reason #971 why Gato’s analysis is stupid. All the data is messy and inconsistent. In light of your comments, how would you attempt to prove or support an argument for lockdowns? The economic costs have been staggering - trillions of dollars. The social costs have been terrible as well. And what for us - rich people in a rich country might count as inconvenience, is for poor people in poor countries devastating. A compelling must be made by those who argue for them. Agreed, that much of the data is messy and inconsistent and as I previously pointed out, likely getting worse here in the USA. We should all be in favor of wanting it to be as clean and consistent as possible. In the absence of that, we either have to (a) ignore or (b) adjust it. In the case of China, I would argue that "ignore" is the right strategy. What's your suggestion?
jamesmadison Posted June 21, 2020 Posted June 21, 2020 Here's some more of Gato's stupid analysis. https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EbDBdetU0AEITRc?format=png&name=medium https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EbDBstcUwAEa8N7?format=jpg&name=medium Useless. He's the worst.
Cigarbutt Posted June 21, 2020 Posted June 21, 2020 Here's some more of Gato's stupid analysis. https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EbDBdetU0AEITRc?format=png&name=medium https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EbDBstcUwAEa8N7?format=jpg&name=medium Useless. He's the worst. What's your point? Do you want to put emphasis on relative performance (intra- and inter- geographies) going through the first wave? There's an old law, Farr's law, which basically suggests that an epidemic scenario will have an intrinsic set of reasons pushing for a pattern of an up and then down curve pattern. Of course, human can interact to flatten the slope of the curve, going up and down, in a positive sense.
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