Energy Sector

[Dalal.Holdings]

On 7/25/2026 at 5:08 PM, Spekulatius said:

My guess is that both Iran and Saudi Arabia will become nuclear armed states within the next 5-10 years. Everyone by now learned the lesson that without nuclear weapons you just get trampled upon. We are going to see a whole lot more states with nukes in the future.

 

Europe also will seek its own nukes if the AfD Party or Le Pen wins a mandate.

 

Doubtful. I don't think even the Saudi deal for civilian nuclear power will work out. And I really doubt they will be enriching their own stuff. What is far more likely is more dependence on the U.S. to provide defense/weapons similar to Europe. And I think Ukraine will become a huge exporter of defense weapons/tools too thanks to their expertise in drones/air defenses/etc.

 

In fact, Iran has just learned from this conflict that it doesn't even need a nuclear weapon. It can just threaten ships in the Strait/energy infrastructure in the Gulf. Iran now knows it possesses a very real source of leverage. Nukes are not necessary.

[kab60]

19 hours ago, Dalal.Holdings said:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-07-26/us-pauses-iran-strikes-for-second-night-as-red-sea-tensions-rise?srnd=homepage-americas

 

 

Again, too many people want resolution of this for it to become a real problem. Obviously tail risks are that the crisis spirals out of control, but the base case is that the Strait reopens and does not stay shut long enough to cause too much damage because too many of the major players (USA, China, OECD, Gulf Nations, etc) want the Strait open.

I agree (and my portfolio benefits immensely on days like today where oil is down (with semis...), but it's about probabilities and price/value, and what I find interesting is that you can buy some cheap portfolio protection currently, as some of these E&P companies hardly price in anything more than $70 USD oil (and shale needs something like ~63-65$ to be economic, which seems like a reasonable assumptions for a long term floor, and one which has been moving higher). So you make a lot of money every day oil is at $80 USD, a ton of money if we get a period >$100 USD (while others parts of the portfolio might get smacked) and do okay even if oil goes down to $65. Is IPCO my best idea currently? I'm not really sure, but it gives my portfolio something beneficial. (and despite oil being ~flat since I first bought in '22, it's a 3x)

 

 

Edited 1 hour ago by kab60

[Libs]

10 minutes ago, kab60 said:

I agree (and my portfolio benefits immensely on days like today where oil is down (with semis...), but it's about probabilities and price/value, and what I find interesting is that you can buy some cheap portfolio protection currently, as some of these E&P companies hardly price in anything more than $70 USD oil (and shale needs something like ~63-65$ to be economic, which seems like a reasonable assumptions for a long term floor, and one which has been moving higher). So you make a lot of money every day oil is at $80 USD, a ton of money if we get a period >$100 USD (while others parts of the portfolio might get smacked) and do okay even if oil goes down to $65. Is IPCO my best idea currently? I'm not really sure, but it gives my portfolio something beneficial. (and despite oil being ~flat since I first bought in '22, it's a 3x)

 

 

That's the beauty of IPCO. Anything over $60 oil and we'll do well here.