Fairfax-Blackberry tie up

[Dazel]

Does taking Blackberry private now make sense for Fairfax? It makes a hell of a lot more sense now than it did then. Onex made their biggest return ever on Celestica when they took it public. Times are similar now than they were Celestica went public...ie Crowdstrike.

There is a margin of safety in the fact firms would be lined up to buy the new Blackberry (no one wanted it when they made their last offer as risks were very high...right now they really could not loose taking it private.

 

I was very critical of John Chen on the Blackberry thread but they are dealing with a market who does not know what Blackberry does or how to value it!? CNBC called them a “smart phone maker” yesterday when they were down 22%!!! They don’t have an identity in the public markets and everyone knows that. Fairfax could do very well in a taking private transaction and Blackberry shareholders are just DONE...they want out and as far away as possible.

 

Fairfax does not have a lot of opportunities right now they are loaded with cash and would be able to do a deal as it would no longer be a marketable security (down 50% this year)! So it helps with capital as well...on the tak8ng private price and becomes a sub of the company. They would be a white night in sheep’s clothing...kinda like Mr. Buffett.

 

 

This I an old headline!!! Below.....

 

https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/blackberry-to-be-sold-to-group-led-by-fairfax-financial-1.1864922

 

Dicsclosure

I have not talked to Fairfax or Blackberry and I am buying shares because I think it is a no brainer for all involved...even if it is someone else who decides To take advantage of the Blackberrry discount.

 

 

Dazel.

[finetrader]

it could be.

 

I find it hard myself to figure out what  is the FCF potential for BB.

[Dazel]

 

 

Think Microsoft

[Dazel]

 

If you have been watching Mr. Buffett and the second biggest holder of stock at Berkshire (yes more than mr. mungerJ...Bill said that software is a really good business...actually if you get it right it is the best business...Microsoft has become a behemoth again....Fairfax or someone else has a shot here it’s free!

[StubbleJumper]

 

If you have been watching Mr. Buffett and the second biggest holder of stock at Berkshire (yes more than mr. mungerJ...Bill said that software is a really good business...actually if you get it right it is the best business...Microsoft has become a behemoth again....Fairfax or someone else has a shot here it’s free!

 

 

And if you get it wrong, it's a zero.  The industry is littered with the carcasses of former flagship products.

 

After that observation, I will now return to my other work, using WordPerfect and Lotus123 to do some analysis which I will send to somebody using NetScape.  :-)

 

 

SJ

 

 

SJ

[Dazel]

 

 

Lol SJ.

 

Do you know that Canadian and U.S military have no choice but to use Blackberry for security? It’s not Lotus...but I get your point.

 

The IP alone is very valuable.

[Dazel]

https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/fairfax-watsa-lost-121-million-164238512.html

 

Odd that Fairfax responded. However, Fairfax stock price and investor confidence in their investing ability has fallen evidenced by this board. Time to create value Fairfax you know you have the ability let’s see some action....Blackberry is in a classic value position that needs a shareholder to push it....or buy it and create value for Fairfax shareholders...I am both.

 

 

Disclosure I continue to buy Blackberry....and am a Fairfax shareholder as well.

 

 

 

[Crip1]

Full disclosure, this is well outside of my circle of competence.

For the past several years I’ve read about BB’s strength being the security of their platform. Actually have friends who work at banks where they are required to use BB phones because of that. They all carry two phones (work and personal) accordingly. Where I’m skeptical is that none of the big boys in the software/mobile phone industries have, as far as I know, tried to purchase the company, or even something close to a controlling stake. One has to think that if the platform was valuable, then those who are familiar with the business would have long ago bought out BB. Granted it’s cheaper now than it’s been in forever, but nothing suggests that there is enough value there to warrant a buyout.

-Crip

[Dazel]

 

Crip1...agreed.

How can a company who has every major global bank, airline, and the U.S military as a client be virtually unknown as a security company? Fairfax and Chen have to see this...it is crazy.

Sales multiples to market cap  for competitors

Blackberry 3x

Crowdstrike 35x

Sales force 8x

Microsoft 8x

Datadog 35x

https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/video/datadog-raises-648-million-u-135726259.html

 

 

[chrispy]

Grouping all "tech" companies together is like grouping all real estate holdings together. A portfolio of NYC is not comparable to one of Cincinnati

[Fairfaxnut]

Geez....This company is getting pounded.....just change the name to something else and this thing is 2x-3x higher.  They are a software company!  QNX in a 150+ million vehicles, their Certicom ECC patents and Endpoint FIPS certification is worth a lot more than the street realizes.  Just the multiple they paid on Cylance is worth noting....far lower than Carbon Black or Crowdstrike.  Its trading lower than when they were a melting ice cube  :o

[ourkid8]

John Chen just purchased 50,000 shares @ $4.90 on Oct 9th.  I just bought a large position in BB today as these prices are starting to get silly. 

[TwoCitiesCapital]

John Chen just purchased 50,000 shares @ $4.90 on Oct 9th.  I just bought a large position in BB today as these prices are starting to get silly.

 

I mean, 250k is kind of chump change for him, but at least it's a positive signal. Hopefully results turn around enough for company to be able to repurchase shares sub-$7 and flip them back to Fairfax at $10 with a conversion of debt.

[Dazel]

 

If I could just get the timing right for when  the algos cover and go long on the space...Lol!

What a world...where are the value buyers, where are the business buyers, the LBO guys?Buy it and take it a part...for 150%....who is going to be the new Icahn? I think someone should get ahold of Fairfax and see if they are there?lights still on?

 

Maybe there should be an Algo message board?

 

[bearprowler6]

 

If I could just get the timing right for when  the algos cover and go long on the space...Lol!

What a world...where are the value buyers, where are the business buyers, the LBO guys?Buy it and take it a part...for 150%....who is going to be the new Icahn? I think someone should get ahold of Fairfax and see if they are there?lights still on?

 

Maybe there should be an Algo message board?

 

Shhhh.....you will wake Prem and Paul up. Its already past their bedtime.

 

The complete silence from the Fairfax team  regarding Blackberry and several of its other losers equity investments is nothing less than shameful! Awhile back one of the regular posters on this Board (who it was escapes me) suggested that one of the major problems with Fairfax was its non-existent investor relations communication strategy. Of course this person was shot down immediately by all the hard core net book value -- value investors. Well....that was about 40% ago on Blackberry and a good 20%+ ago on Fairfax itself.  The standard response of "we focus on the long term" falls way short. I suspect they are embarrassed and simply don't know what to do and are hiding away under their desks  just waiting for the January dividend payment and juicy year-end cash/stock bonuses.

 

Is it possible to start a revolution at Fairfax?

 

 

[petec]

I suspect they are embarrassed.

 

Not me, although I do occasionally question my sanity.