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Real estate sentiment in your area


RuleNumberOne
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In your area, how are real estate prices right now compared to last year's peak?  

112 members have voted

  1. 1. In your area, how are real estate prices right now compared to last year's peak?

    • +5% and higher
    • 0-5% higher
    • -5% to 0% decrease
    • -10% to -5% decrease
    • -10% or lower


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Depends on price point. Under 500K is moving nicely, probably in the 0-5% range with added supply from a few Ryan Homes projects coming online. Over 500K and especially 600K, is no man's land. Taxes are just way too high.

 

Commercial is very, very area dependent. Some ghost towns, some newer developments seeing nice activity and demand.

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Depends on price point. Under 500K is moving nicely, probably in the 0-5% range with added supply from a few Ryan Homes projects coming online. Over 500K and especially 600K, is no man's land. Taxes are just way too high.

 

Commercial is very, very area dependent. Some ghost towns, some newer developments seeing nice activity and demand.

 

This would describe Chicagoland metro area on the residential side - below 500K, moving. As you move closer to $1M - disaster.

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in the Maryland burbs of DC, it's highly segmented. the further out and higher price point you go, the less appreciation. Close to DC and red hot Amazon'd Arlington and under $1mm is moving nicely. for arlington, from what I hear, anything under $1.5 mm moves quickly

 

Any single family home that's close to the city and/or walkable to a metro/retail and under say $1.3 million moves within 4-5 days of listing.

 

We lost out on 2 bidding wars before buying a house 3 days after it listed above ask with almost no contingencies (we paid for a pre-inspection).

 

low rates, low inventory, high incomes = high prices and high competition.

 

It's not clear to me that a recession would change this. there are more millionaires and households making >$200K in relatively recession resistant fields (healthcare, non-profit managment, lobbying, defense, tech) than single family homes in desirable areas. There is virtually no rental inventory of SFH in the close-in neighborhoods, so if you have anything like a 5+ year time horizon, want to live in a SFH with a yard in good school district, you're buying. Plenty of rental multi-family available, of course (and new supply being created).

 

Median income in our zip is $150K and in our cencus tract is $250K+. Even if rates go up a bit, that still buys the median home (~$900K-$1.1 million), so it all feels "affordable" and sustainable to me at the "entry level" pricing, but I could be wrong. the $2mm homes are much more luxurious, have a big builder/renovator margin built in and are more vulnerable to economic conditions, in my opinion.

 

Basically this https://www.wsj.com/articles/buying-a-home-no-matter-the-market-11565885850?mod=searchresults&page=1&pos=3

 

DC burbs has 2/5 "seller's markets" in the country by county (Montgomery MD and Loudon VA)

 

All that said outside of Arlington/Amazon area, actual appreciation for established neighborhoods seems to be at reasonable rates (we bought at an implied 2-3% / year above last 2010 sale price) , it's rather the speed and degree of risky behavior that makes it feel hot. Gentrifying hoods are higher beta and have done better/appreciated more quickly. They also have a different level of crime/school quality.

 

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Manhattan, NYC - Anything over $2mm on the residential side is not moving, anything over $5mm is tough to sell

Queens, NYC - 1-4 families, overall price declines from last year, we've notice there is more choices and opportunity to pick a potential bargain

Overall, quite a bit of new supplies coming onto the market on the higher end.  NYC over $2,000 a sqft.  Queens quite a bit of supply in the $700-1,000 a sqft range.  Flushing is full of new construction.  New projects within 5-10 min walks to subway stations will likely still fare well.  For developers, if they can't move the condo units, they can refi with the bank and lease it out and hold it for the long run. 

Long Island - Anything over $1mm is hard to move.  Taxes, affordability, etc. 

 

With regard to what thepupil just said, I think anything that is under $1mm under 10 min walk to subway stations within a 30 min ride into Midtown will likely move well.  I remember the 2008/2009 recession.  Things got pretty bad.  I was laid from Citigroup and there was a young lawyer who lost his job.  We were all going to Renzo Gracies to learn Brazilian JuJitSu.  I winded up getting a job in PE.  The young lawyer winded up setting up his own law firm/consulting gig.  NYC attracts a lot of talent and when rent becomes "affordable," it seems like people just flood into the city.  The people who have been here for 5-10 years find ways to stay and start stuff.  The look-through industries are not necessarily recession resistant, but the people are very entrepreneurial. 

 

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Guest oakwood42

Manhattan, NYC - Anything over $2mm on the residential side is not moving, anything over $5mm is tough to sell

Queens, NYC - 1-4 families, overall price declines from last year, we've notice there is more choices and opportunity to pick a potential bargain

Overall, quite a bit of new supplies coming onto the market on the higher end.  NYC over $2,000 a sqft.  Queens quite a bit of supply in the $700-1,000 a sqft range.  Flushing is full of new construction.  New projects within 5-10 min walks to subway stations will likely still fare well.  For developers, if they can't move the condo units, they can refi with the bank and lease it out and hold it for the long run. 

Long Island - Anything over $1mm is hard to move.  Taxes, affordability, etc. 

 

With regard to what thepupil just said, I think anything that is under $1mm under 10 min walk to subway stations within a 30 min ride into Midtown will likely move well.  I remember the 2008/2009 recession.  Things got pretty bad.  I was laid from Citigroup and there was a young lawyer who lost his job.  We were all going to Renzo Gracies to learn Brazilian JuJitSu.  I winded up getting a job in PE.  The young lawyer winded up setting up his own law firm/consulting gig.  NYC attracts a lot of talent and when rent becomes "affordable," it seems like people just flood into the city.  The people who have been here for 5-10 years find ways to stay and start stuff.  The look-through industries are not necessarily recession resistant, but the people are very entrepreneurial.

 

Interesting!  NYC is great.  I was just there over the weekend (midtown).  I am working on getting up there one day.

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Manhattan, NYC - Anything over $2mm on the residential side is not moving, anything over $5mm is tough to sell

Queens, NYC - 1-4 families, overall price declines from last year, we've notice there is more choices and opportunity to pick a potential bargain

Overall, quite a bit of new supplies coming onto the market on the higher end.  NYC over $2,000 a sqft.  Queens quite a bit of supply in the $700-1,000 a sqft range.  Flushing is full of new construction.  New projects within 5-10 min walks to subway stations will likely still fare well.  For developers, if they can't move the condo units, they can refi with the bank and lease it out and hold it for the long run. 

Long Island - Anything over $1mm is hard to move.  Taxes, affordability, etc. 

 

With regard to what thepupil just said, I think anything that is under $1mm under 10 min walk to subway stations within a 30 min ride into Midtown will likely move well.  I remember the 2008/2009 recession.  Things got pretty bad.  I was laid from Citigroup and there was a young lawyer who lost his job.  We were all going to Renzo Gracies to learn Brazilian JuJitSu.  I winded up getting a job in PE.  The young lawyer winded up setting up his own law firm/consulting gig.  NYC attracts a lot of talent and when rent becomes "affordable," it seems like people just flood into the city.  The people who have been here for 5-10 years find ways to stay and start stuff.  The look-through industries are not necessarily recession resistant, but the people are very entrepreneurial.

 

Interesting!  NYC is great.  I was just there over the weekend (midtown).  I am working on getting up there one day.

 

I hope you make your way to NYC...just don't breath my fresh air

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Hey all:

 

Real estate has gone absolutely crazy in the Detroit area.

 

There are now houses SELLING for over $100,000 on the East side of Detroit!  I'm not talking about Indian Village...just regular brick houses that are a bit above average.

 

Heck, there are even houses in "hot" areas such as the University District that have sold for $300k.

 

Ten years ago, these houses maybe have sold for $20k and $40k...so prices have gone up many multiples.  Over time, real estate usually goes down in price in Detroit.  I've got to wonder what is going to happen in the next economic downturn.  Going to be interesting!

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in the Maryland burbs of DC, it's highly segmented. the further out and higher price point you go, the less appreciation. Close to DC and red hot Amazon'd Arlington and under $1mm is moving nicely. for arlington, from what I hear, anything under $1.5 mm moves quickly

 

Any single family home that's close to the city and/or walkable to a metro/retail and under say $1.3 million moves within 4-5 days of listing.

 

We lost out on 2 bidding wars before buying a house 3 days after it listed above ask with almost no contingencies (we paid for a pre-inspection).

 

low rates, low inventory, high incomes = high prices and high competition.

 

It's not clear to me that a recession would change this. there are more millionaires and households making >$200K in relatively recession resistant fields (healthcare, non-profit managment, lobbying, defense, tech) than single family homes in desirable areas. There is virtually no rental inventory of SFH in the close-in neighborhoods, so if you have anything like a 5+ year time horizon, want to live in a SFH with a yard in good school district, you're buying. Plenty of rental multi-family available, of course (and new supply being created).

 

Median income in our zip is $150K and in our cencus tract is $250K+. Even if rates go up a bit, that still buys the median home (~$900K-$1.1 million), so it all feels "affordable" and sustainable to me at the "entry level" pricing, but I could be wrong. the $2mm homes are much more luxurious, have a big builder/renovator margin built in and are more vulnerable to economic conditions, in my opinion.

 

Basically this https://www.wsj.com/articles/buying-a-home-no-matter-the-market-11565885850?mod=searchresults&page=1&pos=3

 

DC burbs has 2/5 "seller's markets" in the country by county (Montgomery MD and Loudon VA)

 

All that said outside of Arlington/Amazon area, actual appreciation for established neighborhoods seems to be at reasonable rates (we bought at an implied 2-3% / year above last 2010 sale price) , it's rather the speed and degree of risky behavior that makes it feel hot. Gentrifying hoods are higher beta and have done better/appreciated more quickly. They also have a different level of crime/school quality.

 

 

Generally agree with this posting.

 

A few additional anecdotes, based on where I am.  I own residential property in multiple jurisdictions within Northern Virginia.  [And to clarify, I mean the *real* Northern Virginia (Fairfax County, City of Fairfax Arlington County, City of Alexandria, Falls Church).  Sorry if I am snooty about this, but I am hearing people way down I-95 suggest they are "part of Northern Virginia", and this proves confusing to those from other parts of the country that are looking for homes/condos to buy.   

-  In the more urban/dense/walkable areas, rents seem to be up 10%-15% in the last 6 months, following the Amazon announcement, and the same for property prices.  Rents were generally increasing before this announcement, although at a slower pace (5%-8% per year).   

-  In the more suburban areas (single-family homes with lower density, less walkable), it seems to be hit or miss.  In my area (good public schools, very low crime, good access to Beltway, I-95, and I-66), single-family home prices seem to be up about 10% over the last year.  Can't speak to rental prices for this segment of the market. 

 

A couple of other anecdotes, both personal and second-hand:

- All of my property has exceeded the 2006-2007 highs, based on comparable sales, by 15%-20%.  And I say that as someone who pretty much top-ticked the housing market with my purchases.  Literally could not have picked a worse time, re: purchase price. 

- In the past month, I have received multiple cold calls from people offering to buy my property.  Hard to tell how real this is, but these were real people, with actual numbers.

-  I have a few friends who have ventured into the housing market recently (houses for them to occupy, not rent), looking for single-family homes in the $750k-$1.25 million range.  Apparently the market is so competitive at that range that people are waiving all of their contingencies (i.e. home inspection). 

- Anecdotally, there doesn't seem to be a whole lot of multi-family construction going on.  There are a few big projects I am aware of, but not as much as I would have expected for this area given the prices and interest.  There is a bunch of stuff planned near/around the Amazon project, which I think will total a few 1,000 units of multi-family.  But this seems like a drop in the bucket for this area.   

 

Some of this I am sure is a function of Amazon coming to town.  But the general trend has been like this for quite some time, and the Amazon announcement has just accelerated this.

 

 

 

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From my place to work I probably pass 9 building cranes in Charlotte. Pretty much the only new things the city is producing are apartments, breweries, and high rises. Recession will be painful here.

 

This is everywhere east, it's crazy.

 

I've been to a few rust belt cities recently (Buffalo, Cleveland) and I don't see the cranes everywhere.

 

In Pittsburgh developers are taking the WORST land, I mean crazy sloped hillsides and paying to flatten them to build in undeveloped corners.  It seems entirely uneconomical, but when land is at a premium even the junk lots are being sold.

 

Likewise in the city back in 2004 I looked at buying a row house for $30k.  In 2012 the same houses were going for $100k.  It hit the news, one just sold for $1m.  Exact same properties.  That's a 26% appreciation rate over the past 15 years.

 

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