Buying puts before 10 am tomorrow?

[SHDL]

I thought this was a very insightful explanation for some of the things that were discussed above:

 

https://lt3000.blogspot.com/2019/09/a-duration-bubble-or-low-volatility.html

[UK]

and: https://www.wsj.com/articles/how-to-find-meaning-amid-the-markets-sense-of-impending-doom-11567591381?mod=rsswn

 

"Société Générale analysts calculate that the stocks most closely correlated to Treasurys are the most expensive they have been since at least 2004, when sector differences are stripped out. Meanwhile, the stocks that behave least like bonds are close to the cheapest they have been outside the 2008-09 recession"

 

 

[TwoCitiesCapital]

and: https://www.wsj.com/articles/how-to-find-meaning-amid-the-markets-sense-of-impending-doom-11567591381?mod=rsswn

 

"Société Générale analysts calculate that the stocks most closely correlated to Treasurys are the most expensive they have been since at least 2004, when sector differences are stripped out. Meanwhile, the stocks that behave least like bonds are close to the cheapest they have been outside the 2008-09 recession"

 

Very interesting

[John Hjorth]

Very interesting

 

Indeed, and already pointed out by Cardboard recently. There is always work to do.

[SHDL]

Also, like the author of the LT3000 blog kind of alluded to, this could mean that we are in a great environment for value oriented investors who don’t mind a little stock price volatility. 

[John Hjorth]

Indeed I'll admit there is some hyperbole there to make my point. Everyone is terrified but they still find it OK to buy BRK...why? I think because they(hopefully) understand the business well enough to be comfortable owning it in a drawdown, and have seen how that story plays out before. BRK isn't the only security that's ownable, and I think a lot of the dilemma for most is a combination of fear and just not knowing enough to own a business without certainty.

 

I remember when I first started out, reading a book, I think it may have been Minding Mr. Market or something like that, where the example Im shooting for came up. Essentially stating that investors often leave much by the way of returns, on the table because they rather be sure before doing anything. And that there is a very inverse relationship between certain types of certainty, and the types of returns one achieves. Another example of this is Cornwall Capitals play of Capital One during the subprime crisis in (I think) 2003 or so. Todays scenario is no where near as uncertain, but I constantly run into people who act that way which baffles me.

 

Ive definitely seen reason to get more cautious the past year or so, and definitely want to be weary over the next 18 months. But "global growth" and "recession" fears to me have been for a long time, and continue to be poor reasons to earn 0-2% annually on your money...

 

But yes John, in regards to your specific point, I think Berkshire is A-OK with Jain and Abel and if anything, am of the personal opinion that they will do better AFTER Mr. Buffett passes the torch.

 

Thank you for replying, Greg, and please accept my apology for a late reply here,

 

You know I was cherry picking your original post, and so do I.

 

With regard to your comments about fear, I was personally - years ago - one of those persons you describe. I jumped out of the closet now 7 years ago as a stock picker [to be precise, the date was September 12^th 2012]. There were actually no real hurdles that stopped me from doing that at that particular date, apart from what was going on inside my head - in fact, I could have started in the spring of 2011 [1½ year before actual], if it was not about what was going on inside my head.

 

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With regard to Mr. Jain & Mr. Abel, I consider them "fire fighters" [they now do all the unpleasant stuff, that Mr. Buffett really hates], at USD 18 M each! - Add to that that second floor at Farnam Street - HoldCo costs are exploding! [<- j/k] -They are [perhaps] the best paid firefighters ever, maybe the only one to smoke them in history is Red Adair. [i still remember from when I was young when he did his wonders at the Ekofisk Bravo O&G rig.]

 

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And again : There is always something to mess around with, if one works bottom-up.