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Kyle Bass says US interest rates will follow the rest of the world to zero


MrB
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Wikipedia says this guy Kyle Bass is wrong almost all the time. Probability says don't bet with him, he is no Warren Buffett. Jim Cramer has a much better track record than this Kyle Bas

 

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kyle_Bass

 

In the period from 2008 to mid-2015, the flagship fund experienced a very modest annualized performance of 1.56%.

 

Bass finished his speech stating "War is coming – just as it has throughout history." [27]

 

Hayman suffered its worst year in 2017 with a loss of 19% due to the strengthening of the Chinese yuan.[5]

 

Bass has attempted to profit from filing and publicizing patent challenges against pharmaceutical companies while also betting against their shares.[31][32] After 2 years of setbacks in his effort, Bass by 2017 ended his patent challenges.[6]

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I don’t know, it seems to me that we could just as easily settle into a regime where the US has higher interest rates but also higher inflation vs the rest of the world and the USD gradually depreciates vs other currencies.  In such a world there is no incentive for foreigners to keep buying US bonds and drive their yields lower. 

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He says rates are going to zero but says we are also going to do a bunch of money printing?

 

Classic mistake of assuming money printing and "easy" money means low rates.  It means the exact opposite:

 

"After the U.S. experience during the Great Depression, and after inflation and rising interest rates in the 1970s and disinflation and falling interest rates in the 1980s, I thought the fallacy of identifying tight money with high interest rates and easy money with low interest rates was dead. Apparently, old fallacies never die."

 

Of course central banks are making the same mistake which means low rates are likely here to stay.  No escape from tepid growth, despite the solution staring us right in the face --> What are nominal yields in Argentina and Turkey?

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Guest cherzeca

bass is very smart and I respect him greatly. I also think he thinks chicks dig the long ball, and he likes to go big or not at all.  I prefer the real smart guys who don't care if the world thinks they are smart.

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bass is very smart and I respect him greatly. I also think he thinks chicks dig the long ball, and he likes to go big or not at all.  I prefer the real smart guys who don't care if the world thinks they are smart.

 

You must not know that his returns are quite mediocre even including 08. Like you said he’d rather be seen as good than actually be good

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