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pcm983
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Amazon's Twitch purchase for a billion has positioned them well.

 

Sure, but buying Amazon isn't really a way to get exposure to esports, right? A billion is chump change considering the market cap of Amazon. Even if Twitch is worth $50 billion now that would hardly be significant.

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Amazon's Twitch purchase for a billion has positioned them well.

 

Sure, but buying Amazon isn't really a way to get exposure to esports, right? A billion is chump change considering the market cap of Amazon. Even if Twitch is worth $50 billion now that would hardly be significant.

 

I didn't say it was a good way to get direct exposure to it, but it certainly was a good investment for Amazon, and when in 20 years esports is multiples of what it is now, that 1 billion will probably have had a very nice IRR.

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I used to think the Twitch sale was dumb when I first read about the Justin Kan guy but now I realize how smart the deal was. Seems like the Instagram equivalent deal for AMZN. Wouldn't be surprised if its worth $15+bn in the not too distant future.

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I used to think the Twitch sale was dumb when I first read about the Justin Kan guy but now I realize how smart the deal was. Seems like the Instagram equivalent deal for AMZN. Wouldn't be surprised if its worth $15+bn in the not too distant future.

 

Is is really? I do follow some gamers and there are way more viewers on YouTube than on twitch for those that stream on both simultaneously. From what I see YouTube has features to donate to players  directly and better chat functions that Twitch has not yet implemented.

 

This may depend on the player community and the game played. I see some players have 10k+ viewers in thr twitch app and they may not stream over YouTube. There is probably enough room for more players anyhow.

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I used to think the Twitch sale was dumb when I first read about the Justin Kan guy but now I realize how smart the deal was. Seems like the Instagram equivalent deal for AMZN. Wouldn't be surprised if its worth $15+bn in the not too distant future.

 

Is is really? I do follow some gamers and there are way more viewers on YouTube than on twitch for those that stream on both simultaneously. From what I see YouTube has features to donate to players  directly and better chat functions that Twitch has not yet implemented.

 

This may depend on the player community and the game played. I see some players have 10k+ viewers in thr twitch app and they may not stream over YouTube. There is probably enough room for more players anyhow.

Amazon made a very good buy. Twitch is the number one platform for live gaming streams. I don't think Youtube can take this particular niche from Twitch. They only started catering to game streamers 1-2 years ago and they were basically laughed at by all the serious streamers on Twitch. If you're going to live stream games for 4-8 hours a day, you're going to pick one platform. You simply can't dedicate this amount of time to two separate platforms. Currently, I think almost everyone who is seriously into live streaming games picks Twitch. So it's a "winner takes most" situation and I think Twitch has won. Google has started catering a bit to live game streamers only after they saw that Twitch blew up and they have simply missed the boat IMO, like they did with Google+.

 

I see most successful Twitch streamers using Youtube for highlight videos for their streams, which the more successful streamers tend to outsource to someone who is skilled at video editing. They can still pick up good money by regurgitating their Twitch content on Youtube this way. The smaller streamers don't tend to bother, because they won't get the views on Youtube, so it doesn't pay for them to outsource this or spend hours doing this themselves.

 

Youtube is still the place to go for gaming tutorials, walkthroughs, etc. I'm sure Twitch would like to take that from them, but they probably can't. People spend hours putting a good video together and they'll publish it exclusively on Youtube. Each platform has its own role in the gaming ecosystem.

 

I do wonder how big Twitch can get and how many people are interested in watching a person play the same games every day. I don't see much viewer growth from the big streamers in the last six months. The hype from a game like Fortnite dies down over time and the viewers and subscribers leave as well. The streamer Ninja on Twitch dropped from 200k+ subs a couple of months ago to less than 100k today.

 

With regards to investment opportunities in e-sports: I think the major e-sports tournaments and venues will print money. So I like what MTG owns with Dreamhack and ESL. But I think all that is obvious and probably already baked into valuations. The time to buy into a theme like this is when Amazon bought in, but at that time everyone will say it is crazy and you'll probably agree.

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I used to think the Twitch sale was dumb when I first read about the Justin Kan guy but now I realize how smart the deal was. Seems like the Instagram equivalent deal for AMZN. Wouldn't be surprised if its worth $15+bn in the not too distant future.

 

I think it's pretty far from Instagram (one of the all-time greats), but it was a good deal.

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I do wonder how big Twitch can get and how many people are interested in watching a person play the same games every day. I don't see much viewer growth from the big streamers in the last six months. The hype from a game like Fortnite dies down over time and the viewers and subscribers leave as well. The streamer Ninja on Twitch dropped from 200k+ subs a couple of months ago to less than 100k today.

 

 

I think this also has to do with people discovering smaller streamers as a game grows. A person just getting into a new game may subscribe first to a big name streamer like Ninja but then decide to sub to a different streamer after a month or two. I'd be curious to see the figures for total streamers/viewers for a game like Fortnite as I think that has likely grown significantly while individual streamers who had a large following are losing some of those to other up and coming streamers.

 

 

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I do wonder how big Twitch can get and how many people are interested in watching a person play the same games every day. I don't see much viewer growth from the big streamers in the last six months. The hype from a game like Fortnite dies down over time and the viewers and subscribers leave as well. The streamer Ninja on Twitch dropped from 200k+ subs a couple of months ago to less than 100k today.

 

 

I think this also has to do with people discovering smaller streamers as a game grows. A person just getting into a new game may subscribe first to a big name streamer like Ninja but then decide to sub to a different streamer after a month or two. I'd be curious to see the figures for total streamers/viewers for a game like Fortnite as I think that has likely grown significantly while individual streamers who had a large following are losing some of those to other up and coming streamers.

I doubt this is the case. There are strong "winners take most" effects in place for streamers where a small group of streamers will get most of the viewers and subs. Sure, there is a long tail and increasing overall viewership for Twitch means that more and more people can make a living from streaming games. The big guys will always grab the bulk of the viewers though. If they've not been growing for a while that is not a good sign for Twitch overall, including the smaller streamers.

 

Twitch also just announced they'll be taking away ad-free viewing from their Twitch Prime members: https://blog.twitch.tv/changes-to-twitch-prime-a986f0d8c9a9?sf195911378=1. I think that also indicates that they need that extra ad income so they can redistribute it to smaller streamers. Taking a step like that is not a sign of growth and strength for the platform.

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  • 1 month later...

Anyone looking at esports?

 

One company I think is interesting is MTG which is undergoing a spin-off transaction which will unlock its esports pure-play subsidiary.

 

https://www.mtg.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/06/MTG-company-presentation-June-2018.pdf

 

Has anyone looked at MTG in depth? I see a lot of wheeling and dealing through years, so it's tough to be comfortable and figure out what their real return is. Reminds me of Liberties. But I would not invest in Liberties without Malone. Anyone know MTG management in depth? It doesn't seem to be closely held https://www.mtg.com/leaders/

 

Edit: They have "Total Return" button on https://www.mtg.com/the-share/ page. It's not very impressive though better than pure share price graph. Though OTOH looking at Liberties/etc., the media space has not been doing greatly in last couple (5?) years overall.

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Anyone looking at esports?

 

One company I think is interesting is MTG which is undergoing a spin-off transaction which will unlock its esports pure-play subsidiary.

 

https://www.mtg.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/06/MTG-company-presentation-June-2018.pdf

 

Has anyone looked at MTG in depth? I see a lot of wheeling and dealing through years, so it's tough to be comfortable and figure out what their real return is. Reminds me of Liberties. But I would not invest in Liberties without Malone. Anyone know MTG management in depth? It doesn't seem to be closely held https://www.mtg.com/leaders/

 

Kinnevik used to be the main shareholder, but during the summer they dividended out their shares in MTG due to antitrust issues connected to a merger in another holding. MTG was a very small part of KINV.

 

Cristina Stenbeck is the largest owner of KINV and will therefore be the largest owner of MTG too, even if diluted by now just controlling her own shares directly. KINV also converted their A-shares into B-shares before this spinoff, presumably to prevent takeover attempts as the market was flooded with MTG shares.

 

If Stenbeck is not intent on being a long-term owner of MTG and its future spinoff, I presume that both companies are on the auction block rather than her selling her shares. But that's just a hunch from me.

 

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Anyone looking at esports?

 

One company I think is interesting is MTG which is undergoing a spin-off transaction which will unlock its esports pure-play subsidiary.

 

https://www.mtg.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/06/MTG-company-presentation-June-2018.pdf

 

Has anyone looked at MTG in depth? I see a lot of wheeling and dealing through years, so it's tough to be comfortable and figure out what their real return is. Reminds me of Liberties. But I would not invest in Liberties without Malone. Anyone know MTG management in depth? It doesn't seem to be closely held https://www.mtg.com/leaders/

 

Kinnevik used to be the main shareholder, but during the summer they dividended out their shares in MTG due to antitrust issues connected to a merger in another holding. MTG was a very small part of KINV.

 

Cristina Stenbeck is the largest owner of KINV and will therefore be the largest owner of MTG too, even if diluted by now just controlling her own shares directly. KINV also converted their A-shares into B-shares before this spinoff, presumably to prevent takeover attempts as the market was flooded with MTG shares.

 

If Stenbeck is not intent on being a long-term owner of MTG and its future spinoff, I presume that both companies are on the auction block rather than her selling her shares. But that's just a hunch from me.

 

OK, thanks, got it. So Cristina may be interested in good returns or she may be interested in other things or bigger fish. Wiki says she's looking more at e-commerce in recent years, but wiki might not be great info source. And who knows what she thinks about esports/MTG-after-split.

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