rkbabang Posted January 26, 2018 Share Posted January 26, 2018 This is probably the most welcome, dumbest corporate decision in history. A 2nd corporate HQ... Really? I know plenty of companies who have multiple research centers but, could you please name one U.S. company that has two HQ in the U.S.? Cardboard What happens if one HQ decides one thing, and the other decides something else? Will the AMZN empire split in two? Will there be an Eastern AMZN and a Western AMZN? What happens if one of them is overrun? The First Drone War - The Story of The East Amazon Revolt Kindle: $11.99 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thepupil Posted January 26, 2018 Share Posted January 26, 2018 JBGS would be the purest way to play. It is the largest landlord in the DMV, representing the combination of Vornado's DC assets and those of JBG (a real estate PE firm). Vornado spun its assets into this entity to become an (almost) pure play NYC company, since it believed the supply/demand imbalance in the DC metro was tainting VNO's consolidated multiple. JBG wanted liquidity and was prevented from buying NYRT, so this was another way to do that. JBGS has a substantial development pipeline and a good bit of re-leasing upside, but doesn't appear to me to be particularly cheap, despite the company throwing out a NAV of like $50+ a few years out, with the stock @ $33. I kind of stopped after it wasn't obviously cheap on a cash flow basis, but there's a lot of non-earning or under-earning assets so I very well could be wrong. Just wasn't quite worth the effort on account of my scarce time. I have it on my long list of things to look at more closely though. AMZN moving their HQ to the area would certainly shift fundamentals and sentiment to the positive. I personally don't think it will happen just because the DC area is so expensive. Isn't part of the reason for the new HQ to be lower COL area? http://investors.jbgsmith.com/Cache/1001229705.PDF?O=PDF&T=&Y=&D=&FID=1001229705&iid=4899055 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sharad Posted January 26, 2018 Share Posted January 26, 2018 This is probably the most welcome, dumbest corporate decision in history. A 2nd corporate HQ... Really? I know plenty of companies who have multiple research centers but, could you please name one U.S. company that has two HQ in the U.S.? Cardboard What happens if one HQ decides one thing, and the other decides something else? Will the AMZN empire split in two? Will there be an Eastern AMZN and a Western AMZN? What happens if one of them is overrun? There's still a commander in chief over the entire company regardless of how many "HQ's" there are. This is why I think that Toronto would be a wise choice. The HQ2 is just a "name" (not an actual, serious HQ2), and I feel like AMZN will be looking for a research arm and a way to consolidate its burgeoning global presence in a tax efficient manner (though the tax changes in the US give me pause now). A Canadian division could own all of the non-US subsidiaries (running a very efficient transfer pricing program to manage international taxes), drive the profit back into Canada, offset it against its R&D costs, which will already receive massive credits from the SR&ED program. Then, either cross-list AMZN shares on the TSX (via an acquisition or the like), so that the shares outstanding can be driven down via share purchases in Canada, side-stepping repatriation to the US (when they start to really push profitability), or directly pay dividends from the Canadian arm into Seattle HQ in a more efficient manner (I've spent too much time being involved in these types of structures in the past). I know, I know...it's a very convoluted theory. I'll likely be wrong, and this move will likely be more like Boeing's exodus from Seattle, which really meant having massive presence in both Chicago and Seattle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CorpRaider Posted January 27, 2018 Share Posted January 27, 2018 You seem to have failed to include the eventual winner (and a metro which already made the cut) Ralaaah. I've seen multiple projections that NC is going to top 5 states in U.S. population and Amazon can get on the train. Also, DC blows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LounginMKL Posted November 3, 2018 Share Posted November 3, 2018 Looks like we're close to a decision... https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/amazon-in-advanced-talks-about-putting-hq2-in-northern-virginia-those-close-to-process-say/2018/11/02/9be831d6-d7c0-11e8-aeb7-ddcad4a0a54e_story.html?utm_term=.0dad99b857dd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gfp Posted November 3, 2018 Share Posted November 3, 2018 Interesting... Call options on JBGS ? Looks like we're close to a decision... https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/amazon-in-advanced-talks-about-putting-hq2-in-northern-virginia-those-close-to-process-say/2018/11/02/9be831d6-d7c0-11e8-aeb7-ddcad4a0a54e_story.html?utm_term=.0dad99b857dd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BG2008 Posted November 6, 2018 Share Posted November 6, 2018 We had a lively debate here on where Amazon should relocate. We talked about cost, infrastructure, etc. A few here mentioned that Detroit would be great and the U of Mich graduates are just as good as anywhere. At the end of a long process, it looks like Amazon is about to divide up HQ2 into Long Island City, Queens NY and Crystal City, VA. On paper, LIC would be way too expensive. NYC is already too congested. But the city keeps on surprising me. Since the early 2000s, we've had a terrorist attack, the failing of large investment banks (Citi, BoA, AIG, etc), the Trump tax cut was very negative for high end NYC real estate. Living and working in NYC creates such a tax burden, it's kind of crazy. Yet, here we are, Long Island City and Crystal City. Both locations to be confirmed. So much for coastal cities being too expensive and the huge brain drain (for now). I guess companies know this is where the talent is and the talent knows that this is where "it" happens. And the pretty gals knows this is where they can live the Sex and the City lifestyle and meet Mr. Big or a 25 year blonde boy toy. Because those pretty gals are here, the tinder pool expands and the guys flock here knowing that they have lots of attractive mates. Tinder pools are important. I guess perception is important. Yes, Detroit may have all of the necessary tools. But can you really sell a 22 year old Ivy Leaguer on Detroit? Yes, this sounds elitist, but it is also reality. The guys and gals who wind up perfecting AI, self driving cars, quant HF strategies, etc don't want to be in Detroit. I just hope the rumor mills are correct. If Amazon picks Detroit, I will sound like a huge douche. So, apologies ahead if the rumors are false. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SHDL Posted November 6, 2018 Share Posted November 6, 2018 I’m in the so-called DMV (DC-Maryland-Virginia) region, and Crystal City sounds extremely plausible to me. Not that I really want them to come, but I perfectly understand the rationale. The pairing with LIC makes it sound even more plausible — there are so many ways in which LIC is to NYC as Crystal City is to DC. The DMV region isn’t especially known for its strength in tech, but there’s actually a pool of pretty good talent on the data analytics front that they can probably poach if they really wanted to. Not to mention the fact that this is the place to be if you want/need to engage in serious lobbying. Plus, speaking of Tinder, I expect the female surplus in the dating market here to be very helpful for them should they choose to recruit tech nerds from around the nation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jurgis Posted November 6, 2018 Share Posted November 6, 2018 Crystal City sounds plausible and possibly good choice. I don't know much about it though. LIC seems to be subpar choice for the costs, the job market competitiveness, and adding to NYC concentration. I would have guessed/voted/supported a lot of other finalist places before NYC. But perhaps it is based on NYC attractiveness to Bezos... and employees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BG2008 Posted November 7, 2018 Share Posted November 7, 2018 Crystal City sounds plausible and possibly good choice. I don't know much about it though. LIC seems to be subpar choice for the costs, the job market competitiveness, and adding to NYC concentration. I would have guessed/voted/supported a lot of other finalist places before NYC. But perhaps it is based on NYC attractiveness to Bezos... and employees. LIC/NYC, 5 boroughs in NYC generally get poo pooed on by the value investors for being too expensive. But if you ask the best and the brightest 22 year old who doesn't have the 10, 20, 30 years of wisdom of the CoBF crowd, they would say "just get me to NYC and I will figure it out later" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jurgis Posted November 7, 2018 Share Posted November 7, 2018 But if you ask the best and the brightest 22 year old who doesn't have the 10, 20, 30 years of wisdom of the CoBF crowd, they would say "just get me to NYC and I will figure it out later" No, I get the attractiveness of NYC for young (over)achievers. I also get the attractiveness of it as one of the top world cities. I even get its attractiveness to Bezos and some employees. I still think it's not the best choice for Amazon, but then ./shrug. 8) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SHDL Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 NYC and NoVa it is: https://www.wsj.com/articles/amazon-chooses-new-york-city-and-northern-virginia-for-additional-headquarters-1542075336?mod=hp_lead_pos1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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