Favorite Short Idea?

[NBL0303]

Hello all,

 

What is your favorite short-side investment thesis at the moment?

 

Cheers,

 

NBL

[OracleofCarolina]

Whoever produced or directed Independence Day 2 movie!

 

[permabear]

Short Medallion Financial (NASDAQ:MFIN fka TAXI)

 

• Highly exposed to NYC taxi medallions (licenses) as over 50% of their book is invested in medallion loans.
  
• Huge debt maturities coming due in 2016 totaling 74% of all debt (not including brokered deposits).
  
• Close to tripping several regulatory covenants, which could effect FDIC insurance coverage on deposits, ability to dividend cash up to parents, ability to raise capital without diluting shareholders, etc.
  
• Massive +13% dividend yield that is being funded by debt/eating into equity (not supported by operating income).
  
• Senior executives and directors are dropping like flies.
  

 

Good recent explanation here: http://seekingalpha.com/article/3985501-can-medallion-financial-survive-230m-refinancing-cliff-year-end?app=1&uprof=22&isDirectRoadblock=false

[benhacker]

Daily Journal seems very timely.

 

It's portfolio has been under pressure, and the market is valuing their other businesses which generate little EBITDA and are unproven at a truly amazing multiple.  Portfolio is easy to hedge.  Somewhat illiquid.

 

Still like FXCM short.

 

Many REITs seem worth a look - they seem to be trading like they are treasury substitutes these days.  Low vol funds must be throwing caution to the wind or something.  O for example is impressive in this regard.  3.3% yield... but it's "the monthly dividend" company, so there's that...

 

Think CVX also an interesting short here.  If you asked someone 2 years ago to predict CVX share price if you gave them the now current forward oil curve, I think you would get spit up on.

 

 

[Gamecock-YT]

Whoever produced or directed Independence Day 2 movie!

 

x2! Worst movie I've ever watched in my life.

[OracleofCarolina]

Whoever produced or directed Independence Day 2 movie!

 

x2! Worst movie I've ever watched in my life.

 

 

Haha..I left after I finished my popcorn..only watched maybe 20 minutes

[eclecticvalue]

What were yall thinking? If didn't have Will Smith of course it wasn't going to be good.

[Cardboard]

Long term U.S. treasuries appear to be a good short here. They have moved really fast to the upside now paying a very low and historically low yield. I bought a small TLT put position today.

 

It is hard to make a convincing bet as this may go on further and maybe much further.

 

Cardboard

[frommi]

russel 2000 futures, ev/ebitda for the index is above 19 with high leverage and shrinking earnings, this can't end well. But may take a while to play out.

[Gamecock-YT]

What were yall thinking? If didn't have Will Smith of course it wasn't going to be good.

 

I had incredibly low expectations going into it and they couldn't even hit those. It was like they made a movie and someone came in afterwards and just randomly cut out scenes for no rhyme or reason.

[Picasso]

Whoever produced or directed Independence Day 2 movie!

 

x2! Worst movie I've ever watched in my life.

 

 

Haha..I left after I finished my popcorn..only watched maybe 20 minutes

 

Did anyone figure out a way to short this movie yet?  Inquiring minds are wondering...

 

I shorted PAA because it seems to have all the downside of oil/gas without the upside.  They issued a bunch of 8% convertible preferred to keep paying out distributions, but it converts at $26.25 within a couple years so at the current market price the value is suddenly increased by another 15%.  I have lots of other MLP exposure in SXCP/SXC/FELP so it kind of balances it out.

[misterkrusty]

FYI, there is a good writeup on PAA as a short on the VIC.  should be available on 45-day delay at this point