Guest longinvestor Posted March 8, 2017 Posted March 8, 2017 Did you guys see his returns? Since inception net of fees is 5.4% vs 5.1% with the S&P 500. take taxes into consideration and I bet the index wins by a decent margin. I looked (again) at their returns; They bested the index by a small margin. Notable is that most of that slight out performance was carried by a few years (2001-02) and 2008-09 (they did not lose as much as the index); The index has left them in the dust over the past 7 years. Just like about anyone else! But I bet they handsomely benefit over the next five years by their big position in BRK!
Guest longinvestor Posted March 8, 2017 Posted March 8, 2017 FANG's and Lemmings ;) http://www.marketwatch.com/story/facebook-races-past-berkshire-hathaways-market-cap-2016-07-28 Market cap (update) FANG: $1.44 Trillion BRK: $431 Billion Rationality be damned! Oh wait, we haven't been here before, have we? ;)
StubbleJumper Posted March 9, 2017 Posted March 9, 2017 FANG's and Lemmings ;) http://www.marketwatch.com/story/facebook-races-past-berkshire-hathaways-market-cap-2016-07-28 Market cap (update) FANG: $1.44 Trillion BRK: $431 Billion Rationality be damned! Oh wait, we haven't been here before, have we? ;) Yes, nearly 17 years ago, a full year before the epic tech-wreck, Sanjeev posted the following about Canada's tech-darling, Northern Telecom: "Icemann, what do all these companies have in common? Last QuarterTicker Revenues Earnings Market Cap.BBD 3.3B 147M 15.7BBNS 4.6B 465M 17.6BBM 4.8B 497M 17.0BCM 5.9B 676M 15.7BL 4.3B 77M 11.9BPOW 4.0B 132M 6.4BTD 5.4B 41M 21.7BRY 5.6B 578M 23.0B If you combine all those numbers you get total quarterly revenues of 37.9B, total quarterly earnings of 2.613B, and a total market capitalization of 129B. Nortels numbers ending the same quarter look like this: revenues of 6.8B, earnings of -128M, and market capitalization of 167B. For almost one quarter less you could buy all big five banks, the largest grocery chain in Canada, the largest investment firm in Canada, and the bluest of the blue industrial companies. In the short-term the market is all about style, in the long-term it is about substance. As amazing as NT's growth has been, and it's emergence coincided with an information revolution, it is extremely overvalued. When this humpty dumpty has its fall, all the kings horses, and all the kings men, will not be able to put it back together again! So don't feel so bad that you missed the boat on NT. There are many good companies out there, that are trading at undervalued levels. Some of the ones from above are worth looking at! Many investors, including indexers will suffer the consequences, when NT has an earnings shortfall in the future, and the market rapidly removes the enormous premium applied to its market price. Cheers!" It was obvious then, and it's obvious now. Thanks again, Sanj. SJ
ValueMaven Posted March 12, 2017 Posted March 12, 2017 Brilliant analysis...the best I've seen on Berkshire hands-down. Thank you for posting. Sincerely, ValueMaven
John Hjorth Posted March 12, 2017 Posted March 12, 2017 Brilliant analysis...the best I've seen on Berkshire hands-down. Thank you for posting. Sincerely, ValueMaven It's actually a very good read on BRK.
ValueMaven Posted December 24, 2017 Posted December 24, 2017 I wonder if Chris will be updating his analysis for 2017 shortly, particularly in-light of all that has occurred at Berkshire. It still remains one of the best piece of analysis that I have read...way more detailed then JPM's coverage piece on the company. Sincerely, ValueMaven
Guest longinvestor Posted December 24, 2017 Posted December 24, 2017 FANG's and Lemmings ;) http://www.marketwatch.com/story/facebook-races-past-berkshire-hathaways-market-cap-2016-07-28 Market cap (update) FANG: $1.44 Trillion BRK: $431 Billion Rationality be damned! Oh wait, we haven't been here before, have we? ;) Yes, nearly 17 years ago, a full year before the epic tech-wreck, Sanjeev posted the following about Canada's tech-darling, Northern Telecom: "Icemann, what do all these companies have in common? Last QuarterTicker Revenues Earnings Market Cap.BBD 3.3B 147M 15.7BBNS 4.6B 465M 17.6BBM 4.8B 497M 17.0BCM 5.9B 676M 15.7BL 4.3B 77M 11.9BPOW 4.0B 132M 6.4BTD 5.4B 41M 21.7BRY 5.6B 578M 23.0B If you combine all those numbers you get total quarterly revenues of 37.9B, total quarterly earnings of 2.613B, and a total market capitalization of 129B. Nortels numbers ending the same quarter look like this: revenues of 6.8B, earnings of -128M, and market capitalization of 167B. For almost one quarter less you could buy all big five banks, the largest grocery chain in Canada, the largest investment firm in Canada, and the bluest of the blue industrial companies. In the short-term the market is all about style, in the long-term it is about substance. As amazing as NT's growth has been, and it's emergence coincided with an information revolution, it is extremely overvalued. When this humpty dumpty has its fall, all the kings horses, and all the kings men, will not be able to put it back together again! So don't feel so bad that you missed the boat on NT. There are many good companies out there, that are trading at undervalued levels. Some of the ones from above are worth looking at! Many investors, including indexers will suffer the consequences, when NT has an earnings shortfall in the future, and the market rapidly removes the enormous premium applied to its market price. Cheers!" It was obvious then, and it's obvious now. Thanks again, Sanj. SJ Fred Schwed in Where are the customers' yachts? says something like this was the rage in the period 1925-1929 (Sept, that is). Company XYZ is going up....what do they make and what are their prospects, asks an inquiring mind.....who cares...XYZ is going up. ....All one needs to know is the ticker symbol......
John Hjorth Posted February 7, 2018 Posted February 7, 2018 I wonder if Chris will be updating his analysis for 2017 shortly, particularly in-light of all that has occurred at Berkshire. It still remains one of the best piece of analysis that I have read...way more detailed then JPM's coverage piece on the company. Sincerely, ValueMaven I have now started looking daily on the Semper Augustus website for new interesting stuff from Mr. Bloomstran to read. It seems to be about this time of the year new letters are posted. I'll post here if I see something new comes up.
DooDiligence Posted February 8, 2018 Posted February 8, 2018 I wonder if Chris will be updating his analysis for 2017 shortly, particularly in-light of all that has occurred at Berkshire. It still remains one of the best piece of analysis that I have read...way more detailed then JPM's coverage piece on the company. Sincerely, ValueMaven I have now started looking daily on the Semper Augustus website for new interesting stuff from Mr. Bloomstran to read. It seems to be about this time of the year new letters are posted. I'll post here if I see something new comes up. I like their creative writing style.
Guest longinvestor Posted February 8, 2018 Posted February 8, 2018 I wonder if Chris will be updating his analysis for 2017 shortly, particularly in-light of all that has occurred at Berkshire. It still remains one of the best piece of analysis that I have read...way more detailed then JPM's coverage piece on the company. Sincerely, ValueMaven I have now started looking daily on the Semper Augustus website for new interesting stuff from Mr. Bloomstran to read. It seems to be about this time of the year new letters are posted. I'll post here if I see something new comes up. Thanks for doing this. I've looked for it also. I like them because they value Berkshire higher than everyone else. And in this matter, everyone else is wrong. Spoken like the true groupie, ha.
ValueMaven Posted February 8, 2018 Posted February 8, 2018 It's the single best analysis of Berkshire I've seen...
SlowAppreciation Posted February 24, 2018 Posted February 24, 2018 It's here: https://d2zm3gcvr8kng7.cloudfront.net/media/documents/351455b6-d20f-4af6-8239-2ddd0fa213cf.pdf
ValueMaven Posted February 24, 2018 Posted February 24, 2018 Yea...WOW...Some of the best analysis I've ever read... IV targets ranging from $240 - $250... :) Sincerely, ValueMaven
Guest longinvestor Posted February 24, 2018 Posted February 24, 2018 My favorite part of their analysis is the extent of the under-reported economic earning power, pages 67-69. Something in the order of $6000 per A share. That makes for a happy thought at bedtime for a concentrated BRK investor!
Lupo Lupus Posted February 24, 2018 Posted February 24, 2018 Its a great letter but they keep on making the same mistake: they argue that passive investing into ETFs makes the companies with the larger weights get even larger weights => No, ETFs flows means stocks are being bought in proportion to their current weights, so they rather cement existing weights instead of pushing the larger ones even higher .... otherwise great letter with a good overview of many problems facing markets today!
Swedish_Compounder Posted February 24, 2018 Posted February 24, 2018 I found their analysis of Berkshire Hathaway adjusted look through earnings very interesting and rather complete, but do they not forget the value of future annual float increase? Since BRK consider their float to be basically perpetual, it is 100% free cash flow (with some restrictions) and they usually make an underwriting profit I think the increase in float is to be seen as even more valuable than earnings from the earnings statement. Thus, as a minimum the average annual float increase is to be added to the look-through earnings. What do you guys think?
StubbleJumper Posted February 24, 2018 Posted February 24, 2018 Its a great letter but they keep on making the same mistake: they argue that passive investing into ETFs makes the companies with the larger weights get even larger weights => No, ETFs flows means stocks are being bought in proportion to their current weights, so they rather cement existing weights instead of pushing the larger ones even higher .... otherwise great letter with a good overview of many problems facing markets today! Yes, that would be true if the only ETFs were broad-market ETFs like S&P500 tracking funds. But, how much capital also flows into boutique ETFs that specialize in tech? My take from that part of the letter is that eventually there will be a shit-load of money to be made from companies #501 through #1000+ when the ETF craze hits the ground with a thud (as it eventually must). SJ
Lupo Lupus Posted February 24, 2018 Posted February 24, 2018 Its a great letter but they keep on making the same mistake: they argue that passive investing into ETFs makes the companies with the larger weights get even larger weights => No, ETFs flows means stocks are being bought in proportion to their current weights, so they rather cement existing weights instead of pushing the larger ones even higher .... otherwise great letter with a good overview of many problems facing markets today! Yes, that would be true if the only ETFs were broad-market ETFs like S&P500 tracking funds. But, how much capital also flows into boutique ETFs that specialize in tech? SJ But if this is the argument, then its not about passive investing. If people invest in tech ETF instead of the broad market, its an active decision.
StubbleJumper Posted February 24, 2018 Posted February 24, 2018 Its a great letter but they keep on making the same mistake: they argue that passive investing into ETFs makes the companies with the larger weights get even larger weights => No, ETFs flows means stocks are being bought in proportion to their current weights, so they rather cement existing weights instead of pushing the larger ones even higher .... otherwise great letter with a good overview of many problems facing markets today! Yes, that would be true if the only ETFs were broad-market ETFs like S&P500 tracking funds. But, how much capital also flows into boutique ETFs that specialize in tech? SJ But if this is the argument, then its not about passive investing. If people invest in tech ETF instead of the broad market, its an active decision. Sure, but the same argument can be made about buying an S&P500 fund. The difference is that somebody passively invests in a fund composed of the tech sub-sector rather than the "big" sub-sector (you passively throw your money into 25 tech stocks selected by somebody else rather than 500 "big" stocks selected by somebody else). The flow of money into those ETFs arguably drives up the price of their component stocks. The more different ETFs a stock appears in, the more likely that the capital flows will disproportionately push up its price, relative to the shares of companies that appear in fewer (or no) ETFs. But, I'd say the point was interesting and possibly something that will be valuable for the future. Companies that do not appear in many (any?) ETFs might offer superior returns when the whole ETF thing lands with a thud. It's a bit of insight. So, when snooping for value, maybe in the next couple of years the best place to look will be #501+. That's a fairly big difference from the environment of the past 5 or 6 years where you could make scads of money finding large-cap value in plain sight (eg, US banks, automakers,etc). I really like his letter and I suspect that I'll read it two or three more times over the year! SJ
SlowAppreciation Posted February 25, 2018 Posted February 25, 2018 I was able to find their 13F forms, and just posted them if anyone is interested: About 50% of their portfolio is BRK http://minesafetydisclosures.com/individual-investor-portfolio
Dynamic Posted February 27, 2018 Posted February 27, 2018 I was able to find their 13F forms, and just posted them if anyone is interested: About 50% of their portfolio is BRK http://minesafetydisclosures.com/individual-investor-portfolio And in case anyone needs a reminder, click on that link, pull down the Investor selection and under C you'll find Christopher Bloomstram. BRK.A = 19.1%, BRK.B = 26.4%. Combined BRK = 45.5% of their reportable holdings under 13-F. Everything other position is 6.0% or lower.
SlowAppreciation Posted February 27, 2018 Posted February 27, 2018 I was able to find their 13F forms, and just posted them if anyone is interested: About 50% of their portfolio is BRK http://minesafetydisclosures.com/individual-investor-portfolio And in case anyone needs a reminder, click on that link, pull down the Investor selection and under C you'll find Christopher Bloomstram. BRK.A = 19.1%, BRK.B = 26.4%. Combined BRK = 45.5% of their reportable holdings under 13-F. Everything other position is 6.0% or lower. Haha thanks for clarifying, and sorry to all that it's a little clunky
John Hjorth Posted February 27, 2018 Posted February 27, 2018 I just want to post here my appreciation and gratitude for what you two gents are maintaining and sharing here on CoBF, SlowAppreciation & Dynamic. Thank you very much.
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