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If Donald Trump was elected president, what do you think the near term effect would be on financial markets?  

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  1. 1. If Donald Trump was elected president, what do you think the near term effect would be on financial markets?

    • Major positive effect
    • Minor positive effect
    • No real effect
    • Minor negative effect
    • Major negative effect


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If this has been brought up before I must have missed it. But I am wondering what our board thinks “The Donald’s” impact would be on markets in the US (and world wide).  Perhaps that is two questions, but US only markets for the poll.

 

As a successful businessman promising positive moves to the American economy and committing to run the country like a business, one might think that Trump would have a beneficial impact on the economy. But then, his methods and lack of tact and other issues indicate to others that he could be a disaster.

 

Just wondering what the board thinks.

 

I have set the poll so that participants can change their vote as time goes on if they wish.

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Let me be the first to predict that this thread will completely self-destruct in a few weeks. FWIW, I think Trump is a lunatic but I respect how he's overtaking his own party. I think what Obama said about him was pretty much spot on:

 

The Republican Party set the conditions long ago for Trump’s success, Obama said. The billionaire just capitalized on the GOP’s own tactics, the president argued:

 

What is happening in this primary is just a distillation of what’s been happening inside their party for more than a decade. I mean, the reason that many of their voters are responding is because this is what’s been fed through the messages they’ve been sending for a long time — that you just make flat assertions that don’t comport with the facts. That you just deny the evidence of science. That compromise is a betrayal. That the other side isn’t simply wrong, or we just disagree, we want to take a different approach, but the other side is destroying the country, or treasonous. I mean, that’s — look it up. That’s what they’ve been saying.

 

So they can’t be surprised when somebody suddenly looks and says, you know what, I can do that even better. I can make stuff up better than that. I can be more outrageous than that. I can insult people even better than that. I can be even more uncivil. I mean, conservative outlets have been feeding their base constantly the notion that everything is a disaster, that everybody else is to blame, that Obamacare is destroying the country. And it doesn’t matter whether it’s true or not. It’s not, we disagree with this program, we think we can do it better — it’s, oh, this is a crisis!

 

So if you don’t care about the facts, or the evidence, or civility, in general in making your arguments, you will end up with candidates who will say just about anything and do just about anything. And when your answer to every proposal that I make, or Democrats make is no, it means that you’ve got to become more and more unreasonable because that’s the only way you can say no to some pretty reasonable stuff. And then you shouldn’t be surprised when your party ultimately has no ideas to offer at all.

 

But I'm a crazy European socialist. I think it's a worrying trend that nationalism is on the rise in basically every western country.

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Well,he has a dismal track record as a businessman.  Read the wiki on him.  Or watch the John Oliver Trump show.  Both are more factually accurate than Donald himself. 

 

 

+1.  his record as a businessman is fairly abysmal.  After inheriting his money, he could have put his money in an index fund and done 2x better.  And for the record, while I certainly want our politicians to be frugal, you can not run a country (or another political subdivision) like a business.  Take a look at Flint if you want to see the result of running a City like a business... 

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The guy started out with 200K$ (plus some loans) and inherited 40-200M$ in 1999, when he was already a billionaire. Today he's worth around 4-10B$ (depending on who you believe). Doesn't seem that abysmal to me.

 

https://www.quora.com/Did-Donald-Trump-inherit-a-lot-of-money-and-then-increase-his-net-worth-at-an-unremarkable-rate

 

And John Oliver is not exactly a credible source for information. Hes a comedian.

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The guy started out with 200K$ (plus some loans) and inherited 40-200M$ in 1999, when he was already a billionaire. Today he's worth around 4-10B$ (depending on who you believe). Doesn't seem that abysmal to me.

 

https://www.quora.com/Did-Donald-Trump-inherit-a-lot-of-money-and-then-increase-his-net-worth-at-an-unremarkable-rate

 

And John Oliver is not exactly a credible source for information. Hes a comedian.

 

Your numbers are flat out wrong.  And you didn't watch the John Oliver episode on Trump, did you?

 

He is a terrible businessman with a string of bankruptcies, rip offs, and lawsuits a mile long behind him.  Most of the money he has today was made on the apprentice.  His networth, as reported by him isn't even accurate.  Most of it is his own invention fabricated by giving goodwill to his brand. 

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Your numbers are flat out wrong.  And you didn't watch the John Oliver episode on Trump, did you?

Sorry, didn't watch that episode. If you have a better information source than the "research" by John Oliver, I'd like to see it. Otherwise we're wasting our time here.

 

 

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In no way I am predicting this will come to be, but they do say that those who ignore history are bound to repeat it and the similarities here are rather remarkable.

 

But who is he ?  .............

 

He was very egotistical - to put it mildly.

 

He ran on a platform that he would make the country great again.

 

He blamed the Land’s problems on other countries who were taking advantage of his country.

 

He promised to rid the country of certain races and religions.

 

His rallies were marked by outbreaks of violence.

 

He promised to rip up international agreements to better the country.

 

He came to power in Germany in 1933 and his name was Adolph Hitler.

 

I don’t believe in reincarnation, but Trump’s people did have to get him to stop raising his hand in a gesture that mimicked the Nazi salute when he appeared at his rallies.

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"If you have a better information source than the "research" by John Oliver, I'd like to see it."

 

But facts are facts no matter who presents them.

Unless they disagree with your preconceived notions!!!

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He blamed the Land’s problems on other countries who were taking advantage of his country.

 

He promised to rid the country of certain races and religions.

 

He promised to rip up international agreements to better the country.

 

I don’t believe in reincarnation, but Trump’s people did have to get him to stop raising his hand in a gesture that mimicked the Nazi salute when he appeared at his rallies.

I really think you're trying too hard here.

 

First, he has no problem with the other countries taking advantage (He said that specifically many times). He has problems with the american leaders who let this happen.

 

Second, he never said anything about getting rid of races and religions. He did say that if you want to come to the US as an immigrant, you only come in legally and you have to be ready to become an American. Those who came illegally will be deported, and those who come in in order to change the country into something else are not welcome.

 

In Europe you can see that many immigrants from the Middle East do not become Europeans but build Middle Eastern enclaves and ask for the host country to recognize their "sovereignty".

 

Third, there is no mention of ripping existing agreements but of renegotiating them or exiting certain trade deals which is perfectly legal to do.

 

Lastly, there is nothing Nazi in raising your hand to take an oath like he did. This parallel is either a case of slander or overactive imagination.

 

 

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"If you have a better information source than the "research" by John Oliver, I'd like to see it."

 

But facts are facts no matter who presents them.

Unless they disagree with your preconceived notions!!!

Exactly. I find it hard to believe that the few facts brought to light by Mr. Oliver are somehow the whole truth(just watched that episode). He would have you to believe that all Trump achieved in his life were a bunch of lawsuits and failed business ventures. Hence I'm asking for a more detailed account of Mr. Trump's exploits - oh wait, he did file a bunch of info just a few months ago.

 

Let's see now... he reported receiving 213M$ from the Apprentice, and he is worth 4.1B$ according to Forbes. His father only died in 1999, so he didn't inherit anything until that time. Got a nice head start in life though, that much is true. So he probably did something right businesswise.

http://www.businessinsider.com/donald-trump-nbc-apprentice-payment-disclosure-2015-7

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In no way I am predicting this will come to be, but they do say that those who ignore history are bound to repeat it and the similarities here are rather remarkable.

 

But who is he ?  .............

 

He was very egotistical - to put it mildly.

 

He ran on a platform that he would make the country great again.

 

He blamed the Land’s problems on other countries who were taking advantage of his country.

 

He promised to rid the country of certain races and religions.

 

His rallies were marked by outbreaks of violence.

 

He promised to rip up international agreements to better the country.

 

He came to power in Germany in 1933 and his name was Adolph Hitler.

 

I don’t believe in reincarnation, but Trump’s people did have to get him to stop raising his hand in a gesture that mimicked the Nazi salute when he appeared at his rallies.

 

In the name of political correctness, we fail to do cost and benefit analysis... Thinking outside of box is a good idea from time to time.

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But I'm a crazy European socialist. I think it's a worrying trend that nationalism is on the rise in basically every western country.

 

+1 to writser. I also worry about rising nationalism.

 

However, about Trump - I don't support him, but I think I prefer him to the Christian right ideologues of Republican party. Trump is a clown and a55hole, but he's somewhat "our" a55hole. Just look at his past opinions about hot topics: he opined with Democrats more than with Christian right. Of course, it's impossible to rely on his past opinions, since he's a loose canon and he can change his opinion tomorrow. But I'd rather have that than someone who has these opinions set in stone and will never change them.

 

I think that people comparing Trump to Hitler are taking an easy and false strawman shortcut. This is not something to be proud of.

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"If you have a better information source than the "research" by John Oliver, I'd like to see it."

 

But facts are facts no matter who presents them.

Unless they disagree with your preconceived notions!!!

Exactly. I find it hard to believe that the few facts brought to light by Mr. Oliver are somehow the whole truth(just watched that episode). He would have you to believe that all Trump achieved in his life were a bunch of lawsuits and failed business ventures. Hence I'm asking for a more detailed account of Mr. Trump's exploits - oh wait, he did file a bunch of info just a few months ago.

 

Let's see now... he reported receiving 213M$ from the Apprentice, and he is worth 4.1B$ according to Forbes. His father only died in 1999, so he didn't inherit anything until that time. Got a nice head start in life though, that much is true. So he probably did something right businesswise.

http://www.businessinsider.com/donald-trump-nbc-apprentice-payment-disclosure-2015-7

 

The Wikipedia article is much more enlightening.  Everything about Trump's alleged net worth is based on what Trump says.  That is the problem.  The wiki article details his various business forays and multiple bankruptcies and lawsuits.  He has even filed lawsuits against people publishing that his networth was low compared to his claims, lost them, and appealed, and lost again. 

 

One thing for sure Edward, is that he is a tireless self promoter, and a pathological liar, and he has you fleeced. 

 

I am going to invert this for you:  Would you invest in a business venture with him?

 

We have already surpassed Godwin's law on this thread, so it cant degenerate much more.

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The Wikipedia article is much more enlightening.  Everything about Trump's alleged net worth is based on what Trump says.  That is the problem. 

That is indeed problematic. However the information based on his latest disclosures is much more reliable than things he said in passing many years ago. When you release that much information in writing just before a presidential bid you tend to be pretty careful, so I would believe that part of his statements (not other stuff though).

 

One thing for sure Edward, is that he is a tireless self promoter, and a pathological liar, and he has you fleeced. 

 

I am going to invert this for you:  Would you invest in a business venture with him?

I would not invest in a venture with him as a passive investor, but I would invest as an active partner with control if the venture had merit.

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"If you have a better information source than the "research" by John Oliver, I'd like to see it."

 

But facts are facts no matter who presents them.

Unless they disagree with your preconceived notions!!!

Exactly. I find it hard to believe that the few facts brought to light by Mr. Oliver are somehow the whole truth(just watched that episode). He would have you to believe that all Trump achieved in his life were a bunch of lawsuits and failed business ventures. Hence I'm asking for a more detailed account of Mr. Trump's exploits - oh wait, he did file a bunch of info just a few months ago.

 

Let's see now... he reported receiving 213M$ from the Apprentice, and he is worth 4.1B$ according to Forbes. His father only died in 1999, so he didn't inherit anything until that time. Got a nice head start in life though, that much is true. So he probably did something right businesswise.

http://www.businessinsider.com/donald-trump-nbc-apprentice-payment-disclosure-2015-7

 

The Wikipedia article is much more enlightening.  Everything about Trump's alleged net worth is based on what Trump says.  That is the problem.  The wiki article details his various business forays and multiple bankruptcies and lawsuits.  He has even filed lawsuits against people publishing that his networth was low compared to his claims, lost them, and appealed, and lost again. 

 

One thing for sure Edward, is that he is a tireless self promoter, and a pathological liar, and he has you fleeced. 

 

I am going to invert this for you:  Would you invest in a business venture with him?

 

We have already surpassed Godwin's law on this thread, so it cant degenerate much more.

 

I am going to invert this for you:  Would you invest in a business venture with him?

 

It reminds of WEB's quote: You should invest in a business that even a fool can run, because someday a fool will.

 

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