rpadebet Posted December 12, 2015 Share Posted December 12, 2015 As others will invariable line up for the Star Wars movie next week, I lined up to watch the first show of The Big Short in NYC today. ;). Luckily the line wasn't that big, in fact just a couple of guys ahead of me. As is the case with such movies, I found the book more interesting, but the movie was not bad. They even managed to make it a bit funny. I have special memories of this historic event because I was just starting my career and unbeknownst to me at the time, I had a very close ring side view as important events unfolded. I consider myself very fortunate to do a mini internship at the time with Greg Lippmann and his team. I observed the presentation (which is now being circulated) being put together, arguments between Lippmann and Eugene Xu - the Quant (This part is not in the book ). I remember being clueless at the desk as the lowly intern while the bosses left for the now infamous Las Vegas conference. So this book and the movie hold a special significance in my mind and it will be an experience I will never forget. Now you know why I lined up for the movie on the first day. Anyway after watching the movie, I started reading Dr. Burry's letters from the time again, here is an excerpt that I found interesting While many see a commodities bubble, I see a federal mandate to inflate commodities prices in dollar terms. The recent collapse in some commodities prices along with a strengthening dollar does little to dampen my enthusiasm for the sector. I fully expect such volatility along the way; that is the nature of the markets. In fact, the Funds established direct commodity exposure through futures contracts during the recent pullback. At recent prices, the total value of futures contracts amounted to less than 15% of the Funds assets. It is an entirely reasonable argument to note that as the world slows down, other countries will start cutting rates, making the dollar relatively more appealing. As commodities have been the prime beneficiaries of a weak dollar, this improving state of the dollar would result in poor performance for commodities going forward. However, we must remember that the United States is the largest economy by far, and it has the most leveraged consumers by far. The primary cause of the rest of the world’s ills will be secondary effects of the slowdown in the United States. Every other country will have some degree of strength derived from domestic and other non-US sources. At the end of the day, the credit crunch hurts the United States more than any other country. The sickest patient will require the most aid, and I would expect that aid will come in the form of Federal policies that hurt the dollar’s value over a longer time frame. I just realized, he seems to have even predicted the emerging market contagion, dollar strengthening and related commodity complex collapse which we are currently seeing...he goes on to predict a follow up recession and further fed support (FWIW I didn't predict any of the above but I do believe QE4 is coming soon 8) ) I am now really in awe of this man's rational/logical thinking....it is a bit scary even to think, what it would be to think like him and know what he knew would be a reasonable probability back in 2008. If I had a chance, I don't think I would like to talk to him. It is a bit like looking through the crystal ball and knowing your future. It takes all the fun out of living and investing! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jurgis Posted December 12, 2015 Share Posted December 12, 2015 You are overascribing godlike qualities to Mike while doing selective reading and interpretation of his writings. He wasn't God and he isn't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
feynmanresearch Posted December 12, 2015 Share Posted December 12, 2015 How close to the book script was the movie? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liberty Posted December 13, 2015 Share Posted December 13, 2015 Thanks for sharing your experience with the movie and the crisis. It must be weird to see your old boss and colleagues on the big screen. I also plan to see it, though probably only next month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fareastwarriors Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 I plan to see it when it comes out nationwide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
original mungerville Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 One tidbit I remember from the crisis is that at one point, in order to get even great asymmetrical exposure quickly, Watsa/Fairfax offered to buy out any or all of Burry's investors who wanted out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Grey512 Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 You are overascribing godlike qualities to Mike while doing selective reading and interpretation of his writings. He wasn't God and he isn't. Jurgis, I'd be grateful and interested to hear more of your thoughts on MCB and specifically, your main criticisms of him. Thanks in advance. G. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jurgis Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 You are overascribing godlike qualities to Mike while doing selective reading and interpretation of his writings. He wasn't God and he isn't. Jurgis, I'd be grateful and interested to hear more of your thoughts on MCB and specifically, your main criticisms of him. Thanks in advance. G. I don't have any direct criticisms about Mike's investments offhand. He did great in the past and I wish him well in the future (though obviously he could just sit happily on the pile of money he made and do nothing). I just object his deification. In particular, commodity pricing could be explained by cyclical (or supercyclical for hyperbole inclined) nature: China growth drove up demand, demand drove up pricing, a lot of projects to increase production are/were multiyear, then they come online when China is slowing, etc. Sure, there is also some fiscal, monetary, currency effects too, but that doesn't mean that a paragraph from Burry predicted yet another 100 year flood or something. I have some objections towards some thoughts and sentiments he expressed post crash. But he is entitled to his opinions - and he paid dearly for them - so I don't see a point to return to them. :) Finally, my direct interactions with Mike are now more than 10 years ago. He was nice and smart guy, though I'd say CoBF has people who seem as smart as him or smarter. And if he'd be on CoBF, he'd probably wouldn't be treated as a prophet (if we exclude hindsight bias). ;) In the end though it's the investment results that matter and not our posts on SI or CoBF. 8) Take care. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phaceliacapital Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d03zpolmv7U Is it just me or is that Burry himself on the phone when the two walk in? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwoCitiesCapital Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d03zpolmv7U Is it just me or is that Burry himself on the phone when the two walk in? Totally looks like him at 0:07. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ham Hockers Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 The investment banks are currently setting up meetings to meet issuers at the 2016 ABS Vegas conference. The machine never dies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phaceliacapital Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 Yeah I think it's him, hasn't changed his haircut in 10 years, even after earning millions, a true value investor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eclecticvalue Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 I would be surprised if he made a guest appearance. Couldn't find any info on IMDB. I definitely want to see this during the holidays. Did the movie make references to value investing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phaceliacapital Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1596363/trivia?item=tr2696237 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
randomep Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d03zpolmv7U Is it just me or is that Burry himself on the phone when the two walk in? It's him, though I guess he is a really bad actor cos he was told not to move a muscle...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwoCitiesCapital Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d03zpolmv7U Is it just me or is that Burry himself on the phone when the two walk in? It's him, though I guess he is a really bad actor cos he was told not to move a muscle...... According to IMDB, it must be Selena Gomez or Margot Robbie :) Joking aside, he did visit the set a few times during filming so it's not surprising he made it in as an extra. Also, did any else get a twinge of recognition at the book he was reading? I read the entire series probably about 10-15 years ago. One of my favorite fantasy series. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jurgis Posted December 22, 2015 Share Posted December 22, 2015 Also, did any else get a twinge of recognition at the book he was reading? I read the entire series probably about 10-15 years ago. One of my favorite fantasy series. I know the series. (IMO, his Landover series are much better though - Shannara starts like a total Tolkien ripoff, gets better a bit later...) I wonder though if this is based on real info about Mike or if Hollywood threw this in as another nerd cliche... ::) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phaceliacapital Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 No no, no nerd cliche. It's well known that the Scion from "Scion Capital" is based on the book "The scions of shanarra". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Palantir Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 Good catch! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwoCitiesCapital Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 No no, no nerd cliche. It's well known that the Scion from "Scion Capital" is based on the book "The scions of shanarra". Had no idea! Haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
feynmanresearch Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 A friend of mine watched the movie.He remarked that the finance is heavily dumbed down in the movie and it strays to far from the story on the book Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doughishere Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 Does anyone know about those ""new" CDOs they mentioned at the end of the movie? I forgot what they called them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LesPaul Posted December 24, 2015 Share Posted December 24, 2015 'Bespoke Tranche Opportunities' Such a deliciously pompous name... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doughishere Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 That scene where he walked into Goldmans conference room is precious Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Travis Wiedower Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 A friend of mine watched the movie.He remarked that the finance is heavily dumbed down in the movie and it strays to far from the story on the book If the finance wasn't heavily dumbed down the movie would have been seen by like 1,000 people. I thought they did a great job of explaining very complicated matters in simplistic terms. The point of the movie was to inform the general public of some things they probably weren't familiar with surrounding the financial collapse in a fun and approachable way, not make a 100% accurate movie that bores the general public to death. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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