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If this isn't a sign of market top, not sure what it is then! LOL :-)


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This kind of reminds me of a point that people in law enforcement talk about.  There's always a new batch of young men coming of age to do a bunch of stupid stuff. 

 

The same point goes for bull markets.  There's always a new batch of people who haven't gotten burned and jump into the fray. 

 

I also chuckle about those who get into day trading during a bull market.  These people fool themselves into thinking they are actually doing something of value.  All the while they probably would have made more money just owning the market and doing nothing. 

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I've long thought the day Hussman shuts down would likely be within say six months of the top  :)

 

There's beliefs in the markets that one: The market is efficient (EMH and all that) and two, that you can not successfully time the market.  Hussman is sure entrenching that belief.  :-)

 

Well, personally I've never wholly bought the idea that the EMH was wholly true and true all the time.  I've also wondered whether or not dogmatically avoiding market timing all the time is also just another way of accepting EMH as wholly true all the time.

 

For instance, friends and I used to joke about a mutual friend that didn't want or need to buy a house, and held off buying into the rising housing market for years and years.  We'd say that the day he buys, will be the day to sell.  Well, it was, to within about a week of the peak!  As someone with a long term focus he's done alright. Buy and hold usually works out fairly well over the long run. 

 

However, like not using into the idea that the market is efficient all the time, this experience furthered my suspicion that periodically (very rarely all be it) successful market timing might work. It's all in finding the right contrarian indicators.  The last man in and capitulation seem to be areas to watch.  Day trading models? I don't know.

 

Still, I now have more respect for the underlying psychology and insight behind our observations and jokes.

 

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