JEast Posted May 11, 2015 Share Posted May 11, 2015 Casual observations, but in the sandbox that I play in – it is starting to fell like it is 1999 again. However, for you folks that had capital invested in the market during '99-'00 they were probably filled with great wonders and excitement. I on the other hand was filled with “you got to be kidding me” as for example I still recall that Juniper Networks went to 100x times sales (sales not earnings) at one point. We are surely not at that stage, but anecdotally the rhythm/rhyme of today’s market has that undertone. Some random observations: <blockquote>1. Ivy League graduates instead of wanting to go to Wall Street or consulting jobs are instead now more interested in starting their own business or entering VC. 2. The FED making market comments that they appear a little frothy. The last time that happened (e.g. irrational exuberance), the markets went on a tear. 3. Attended a VC conference a few months ago and there was actually some very good functional and operating tech (vs. two years ago of paper tech). However, no one wanted capital as they were holding out. Reminds me of holding out on the last dollar before the 2007 housing boom and broadcast shows like “Flip This House.” 4. Speaking of TV shows, does programs like “Shark Tank” at this pint hint at the possibility that VC has – jumped the shark (pun intended). 5. Much like the Business Week headline theme, is it time to sell the headline? 6. At my recent Toronto visit, and reason I like the many events during FFH week is that all the value investors attending are very open and we talk individual stocks. Unlike all my past years (9 years), not very many hardcore value folks had any stocks to talk about this year. 7. Headlines are starting to pop up that value investing has lost its luster. One recent headline indicated that Mark Mobius is a washed up value investor and sure more articles are in the works as the 5 and 10 numbers are starting to turn over.</blockquote> I am sure astute board members could find (and will) more anecdotal and cautionary tales. Sure, there is always something to do, and I am, but if any of this true, then we hardcore value investors probably have another 18 months or more of value pain. Cheers JEast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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