AzCactus Posted October 24, 2014 Share Posted October 24, 2014 I am sure I am not the only one on this board who has seen/read Mohnish Pabrai speeches about cloning and its potential benefits. Whether part of your investment strategy includes cloning or not, I would be interested in seeing your top 5 13f's to clone. I'll start Pabrai (Dalal Street, LLC) Meacham (Arlington Value) Greenberg(Brave Warrior) Ackman (Pershing Square) Buffett/Combs/Weschler(Berkshire Hathaway) I am really fascinated to hear about the list you have and also the qualities that the managers have in common (other than solid returns). I am also aware that some people may follow 15-20, but there are only so many good ideas that can fit in portfolio of 10-15 stocks (my ideal size). Thank You, David Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KCLarkin Posted October 24, 2014 Share Posted October 24, 2014 My top 5 is probably the same. I prefer concentrated portfolios. Berkowitz would be in my top 6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
augustabound Posted October 24, 2014 Share Posted October 24, 2014 My top 5 is probably the same. I prefer concentrated portfolios. Berkowitz would be in my top 6. Same here, swap Ackman for Berkowitz. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AzCactus Posted October 24, 2014 Author Share Posted October 24, 2014 KC---I agree. If you look at those names the top holding accounts for more than 20% of the portfolio in every case. That's a lot of conviction. And basically I would say that all those names are up substantially more than their average % gain amongst their other holdings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Picasso Posted October 24, 2014 Share Posted October 24, 2014 I track the following: Paulson & Co filings Whitney Tilson via KASE Capital letters on ValueWalk Doug Kass via Twitter Jim Cramer via CNBC articles If there is some crossover between what I own and those guys, I am probably wrong about my thesis. I begin to doubt myself and find out why/how I am wrong. Sometimes I will short those stocks I used to own. I have a list of the good filers, but I like to keep those to myself.... ;D Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CorpRaider Posted October 24, 2014 Share Posted October 24, 2014 I track the following: Paulson & Co filings Whitney Tilson via KASE Capital letters on ValueWalk Doug Kass via Twitter Jim Cramer via CNBC articles If there is some crossover between what I own and those guys, I am probably wrong about my thesis. I begin to doubt myself and find out why/how I am wrong. Sometimes I will short those stocks I used to own. I have a list of the good filers, but I like to keep those to myself.... ;D LOL! For a split second, I was getting all ready to try and help you out by beginning to gently persuade you how horrible this list was, then my sarcasm meter went off, just in time to save me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yadayada Posted October 24, 2014 Share Posted October 24, 2014 What is so horrible about paulson? I can see the others though. Shorting IBM and Coke... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AzCactus Posted October 24, 2014 Author Share Posted October 24, 2014 I track the following: Paulson & Co filings Whitney Tilson via KASE Capital letters on ValueWalk Doug Kass via Twitter Jim Cramer via CNBC articles If there is some crossover between what I own and those guys, I am probably wrong about my thesis. I begin to doubt myself and find out why/how I am wrong. Sometimes I will short those stocks I used to own. I have a list of the good filers, but I like to keep those to myself.... ;D Picasso, if Buffett can share his brilliant ideas I am sure you can too :) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beerbaron Posted October 25, 2014 Share Posted October 25, 2014 A few years ago I spent a good amount of time thinking of what should be the criterias for successful cloning. I came out with the following criterias: Concentrated portfolio Low turnover Long history of outperformance Value investor History of ethical behaviour Very few money managers fit the bill: Buffett Watsa Chou Berkowitz Einhorn To tell you guys the truth I don't think the strategy has produced above average returns. I attribute the poor performance to two reasons: [*]In an up market you can never buy at the same price that the Guru has bought. [*]You are always 45 days late Overall I am seriously thinking of going back to a more active management of my portfolio. I could access much more companies that the big guys could not and that gave me a major hedge. Much better than what I can have right now. BeerBaron Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AzCactus Posted October 25, 2014 Author Share Posted October 25, 2014 A few years ago I spent a good amount of time thinking of what should be the criterias for successful cloning. I came out with the following criterias: Concentrated portfolio Low turnover Long history of outperformance Value investor History of ethical behaviour Very few money managers fit the bill: Buffett Watsa Chou Berkowitz Einhorn To tell you guys the truth I don't think the strategy has produced above average returns. I attribute the poor performance to two reasons: [*]In an up market you can never buy at the same price that the Guru has bought. [*]You are always 45 days late Overall I am seriously thinking of going back to a more active management of my portfolio. I could access much more companies that the big guys could not and that gave me a major hedge. Much better than what I can have right now. BeerBaron Hi Beer, I agree with the criteria you have laid out in terms of the qualities to look for in managers. That having been said there was a study shown regarding investors results if they had just imitated Buffett for a 30 year period. I would say that some of the managers mentioned above do fit that Bill especially Mecham and Pabrai. The other thing I would mention is that even if the market is moving up it does not necessarily mean that the security purchased went up by a corresponding amount or at all. Lastly, given the low turnover you mention being 45 days late is not a huge deal when viewed over a 3-5 year holding period. Hope this helps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LC Posted October 25, 2014 Share Posted October 25, 2014 I also look at Tesuji partners which I don't believe has been mentioned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crastogi Posted October 25, 2014 Share Posted October 25, 2014 I have been selectively coattailing (based on thesis i can understand and agree with) since jan 2012. So far, for all the closed positions, i have gained 52% more than if i had invested in SPY. My criteria for choosing a manager is same as that of many folks here - concentrated portfolios, low turnover, business/value investor. In fact, i found that many names drop after being bought by these managers, so if you are comfortable with the rationale, it is a better buying opportunity. Some manager coattailed include Einhorn, berkowitz, pabrai Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valuebo Posted October 25, 2014 Share Posted October 25, 2014 [*]In an up market you can never buy at the same price that the Guru has bought. [*]You are always 45 days late Sometimes that's a great thing. Take Chou. He bought Eurobank and Intralot for double what they were trading for just two weeks ago. He was either wrong or the security just got even cheaper. If you can then further identify a reason for the share price collapse outside actual business results (in Intralot's case it just got dragged down with the Greek stock index while it has 95% of revenue outside Greece), you are possibly sitting on a very attractive security. Sure, maybe both were a mistake and maybe he sold out at a big loss. Time will tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
investor-man Posted October 25, 2014 Share Posted October 25, 2014 I look at 13Fs too. Who doesn't? But if you're filing a 13F, then you're managing at least $100 million and/or have a bunch of clients, which is unlike most people on this board (I think). Not having clients or managing a ton of money is an advantage to us and I think spending time cloning individual investors who don't suffer from those contraints, and who focus on small cap stocks is as good an idea, if not better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AzCactus Posted October 26, 2014 Author Share Posted October 26, 2014 Hi Investor-man, It goes without saying that everyone looks at 13f-s. The main purpose of my post however was to hone in on a few specific 13f's that people find most align with their investment philosophy/mindset. Additionally, I would agree there are some huge advantages to managing a smaller amount of money. David Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
karthikpm Posted October 26, 2014 Share Posted October 26, 2014 In addition to above, I look at Lou Simpson ( SQ advisors). Lou has a great record at GEICO . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BG2008 Posted October 26, 2014 Share Posted October 26, 2014 Chou was once asked about why he owned Radioshack. He mentioned that it was a basket bet along with other names. It goes without saying that cloning their high concentration ideas, their 1-3% positions may not be the best to tag along. [*]In an up market you can never buy at the same price that the Guru has bought. [*]You are always 45 days late Sometimes that's a great thing. Take Chou. He bought Eurobank and Intralot for double what they were trading for just two weeks ago. He was either wrong or the security just got even cheaper. If you can then further identify a reason for the share price collapse outside actual business results (in Intralot's case it just got dragged down with the Greek stock index while it has 95% of revenue outside Greece), you are possibly sitting on a very attractive security. Sure, maybe both were a mistake and maybe he sold out at a big loss. Time will tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest wc Posted October 27, 2014 Share Posted October 27, 2014 Chou was once asked about why he owned Radioshack. He mentioned that it was a basket bet along with other names. It goes without saying that cloning their high concentration ideas, their 1-3% positions may not be the best to tag along. This is the basis of my cloning. I follow a lot of 13-Fs but only look at positions that are >5%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AzCactus Posted October 27, 2014 Author Share Posted October 27, 2014 WC Any specific names you would like to add to the conversation? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ross812 Posted October 27, 2014 Share Posted October 27, 2014 I follow Jeffrey Ubben of Value Act and Murray Stahl of Horizon Kinetics. Ubben is a semi activist investor who takes very concentrated bets: MSFT VRX MSI ADBE Value Act recently bought about 800M worth of Agrium which looks very interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest wc Posted October 27, 2014 Share Posted October 27, 2014 WC Any specific names you would like to add to the conversation? Munger and Icahn are two big names I haven't seen mentioned (though Munger's 13-F changes like every 3 years). Ubben and Stahl are both good mentions as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Packer16 Posted October 27, 2014 Share Posted October 27, 2014 I have found ideas from Baupost and Oaktree. Packer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RhubarbXIV Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 I have found ideas from Baupost and Oaktree. Packer +1 Oaktree. Great place to look for some credit-informed ideas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rukawa Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 What is the best way to track a 13 f. I know of a few sites: Insider Monkey Whale Wisdom Gurufocus. What is the most useful/cheap? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RhubarbXIV Posted October 31, 2014 Share Posted October 31, 2014 What is the best way to track a 13 f. I know of a few sites: Insider Monkey Whale Wisdom Gurufocus. What is the most useful/cheap? I copy the links from the sec into feedly RSS aggregator. Start here: http://www.sec.gov/edgar/searchedgar/companysearch.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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