wachtwoord Posted March 1, 2019 Posted March 1, 2019 I also love Southwest, but I don't pay for early bird check-in. When I fly with my wife, she always gets the early bird and I don't. I love when I end up only a few spaces behind her in line and can gloat about saving $20! I do love Southwest as a customer (although the flights are always free with points, I do pay for early bird check-in) Why would you want to be first in the plane? I always prefer to enter as late as possible (except when hand luggage is not guaranteed as I prefer it not to go to the hold). Yes to store a bag in the overhead and to get an aisle seat. It is open seating on LUV. Lol like a bus. Yes then I get it. I think Ryanair does the same in Europe.
Gregmal Posted March 1, 2019 Posted March 1, 2019 Yea I definitely wouldn't be thrilled if he blew half the cash hoard on an airline. A business he once deemed uninvestable he is now going to foray into, making one of BRK's largest investments ever? Sounds like an unnecessary risk. I mean as it stands, airlines are currently so cheap that I dont see how buying one outright is a better choice than simply investing across the board in a few different ones. If his new found bullishness is correct, there will be tons of money to be made going forward given the single digit pe multiples these trade at. And if not, being in the public markets gives you the liquidity to get out if things go sour. Not the case with owning an entire company...
michaelj Posted March 1, 2019 Posted March 1, 2019 Yea I definitely wouldn't be thrilled if he blew half the cash hoard on an airline. A business he once deemed uninvestable he is now going to foray into, making one of BRK's largest investments ever? Sounds like an unnecessary risk. I mean as it stands, airlines are currently so cheap that I dont see how buying one outright is a better choice than simply investing across the board in a few different ones. If his new found bullishness is correct, there will be tons of money to be made going forward given the single digit pe multiples these trade at. And if not, being in the public markets gives you the liquidity to get out if things go sour. Not the case with owning an entire company... He owns just under 10% of DAL, AAL, LUV. If I recall during the CNBC interview this week, part of his answer to why he wasn't buying in Q4 was that in the (unnamed) stocks he was interested in adding, he didn't want to trigger 10%
Gregmal Posted March 1, 2019 Posted March 1, 2019 Yea I definitely wouldn't be thrilled if he blew half the cash hoard on an airline. A business he once deemed uninvestable he is now going to foray into, making one of BRK's largest investments ever? Sounds like an unnecessary risk. I mean as it stands, airlines are currently so cheap that I dont see how buying one outright is a better choice than simply investing across the board in a few different ones. If his new found bullishness is correct, there will be tons of money to be made going forward given the single digit pe multiples these trade at. And if not, being in the public markets gives you the liquidity to get out if things go sour. Not the case with owning an entire company... He owns just under 10% of DAL, AAL, LUV. If I recall during the CNBC interview this week, part of his answer to why he wasn't buying in Q4 was that in the (unnamed) stocks he was interested in adding, he didn't want to trigger 10% I dont think I believe the rumor on LUV, but yes, I'd prefer he just stick with owning those than do something drastic.
sleepydragon Posted March 1, 2019 Posted March 1, 2019 It will be cool if he can buy 2-4 airlines in one bid. The consolidation will be instantly value add. And only Berkshire has the money to do that.
DooDiligence Posted March 1, 2019 Posted March 1, 2019 Yea I definitely wouldn't be thrilled if he blew half the cash hoard on an airline. A business he once deemed uninvestable he is now going to foray into, making one of BRK's largest investments ever? Sounds like an unnecessary risk. I mean as it stands, airlines are currently so cheap that I dont see how buying one outright is a better choice than simply investing across the board in a few different ones. If his new found bullishness is correct, there will be tons of money to be made going forward given the single digit pe multiples these trade at. And if not, being in the public markets gives you the liquidity to get out if things go sour. Not the case with owning an entire company... It's almost as if he's switched to my investment process :o
alwaysinvert Posted March 1, 2019 Posted March 1, 2019 I'm so old that I remember all the gut reactions to BNSF too
StubbleJumper Posted March 1, 2019 Posted March 1, 2019 It will be cool if he can buy 2-4 airlines in one bid. The consolidation will be instantly value add. And only Berkshire has the money to do that. Could be a few regulatory hurdles to that. At a certain point, anti-combines becomes an issue.
gfp Posted March 1, 2019 Posted March 1, 2019 Yes there may be little truth to the rumor, being rehashed right at the end of the month and all. But if he were going to buy one of the airlines, it would probably be the one that has been profitable for 46 consecutive years. I do not think LUV was the elephant he was working on in Q4, and since he would sell the equity positions in the other 3, it wouldn’t require a ton of cash from the parent. Not like a GE, UPS, BUD or KO would. I guess we’ll just have to be patient
Gregmal Posted March 1, 2019 Posted March 1, 2019 It will be cool if he can buy 2-4 airlines in one bid. The consolidation will be instantly value add. And only Berkshire has the money to do that. Could be a few regulatory hurdles to that. At a certain point, anti-combines becomes an issue. I would think the better way to do that would be to get in the ear of a portfolio company and play activist. Get them to make a bid or try to acquire another airline you like. Then give it a little and see how they integrate. Then make a bid for the combined entity.
gfp Posted March 6, 2019 Posted March 6, 2019 Probably small, but Berkadia has made an acquisition: https://www.housingwire.com/articles/48362-berkadia-launches-structured-capital-group-by-acquiring-central-park-capital-partners
gfp Posted March 15, 2019 Posted March 15, 2019 Not really newsworthy, but it seems like there is a very odd volume spike on the B shares for today's open. Are others seeing a volume spike on the open this morning? edit: I suppose it is related to index rebalancing today. If so, would expect another market-on-close volume spike.
Dynamic Posted March 15, 2019 Posted March 15, 2019 Seems to be about 1.7 million shares near the open, according to both Yahoo and IBKR
DooDiligence Posted March 15, 2019 Posted March 15, 2019 Reducing the cost of float: https://www.reinsurancene.ws/berkshire-hathaway-guard-partners-with-ai-platform-planck/ https://www.planckdata.com/solutions
Cigarbutt Posted March 15, 2019 Posted March 15, 2019 Reducing the cost of float: https://www.reinsurancene.ws/berkshire-hathaway-guard-partners-with-ai-platform-planck/ https://www.planckdata.com/solutions And I guess we're not even at the end of the beginning. If you have an interest in the Lloyd's insurance platform and if you have a few minutes to spare: Lloyd's has made progress but has been incredibly slow in integrating new technology. Before dismissing the value of the first video, helpful to remember that the 2019 video already looks and sounds out-dated when AI enters the picture. Resistance to change at Lloyd's may be related to resilience as they sort of defined the risk shedder-taker relationship a while back and would risk affirming that they will continue to be around for the foreseeable future.
DooDiligence Posted March 15, 2019 Posted March 15, 2019 Reducing the cost of float: https://www.reinsurancene.ws/berkshire-hathaway-guard-partners-with-ai-platform-planck/ https://www.planckdata.com/solutions And I guess we're not even at the end of the beginning. If you have an interest in the Lloyd's insurance platform and if you have a few minutes to spare: Lloyd's has made progress but has been incredibly slow in integrating new technology. Before dismissing the value of the first video, helpful to remember that the 2019 video already looks and sounds out-dated when AI enters the picture. Resistance to change at Lloyd's may be related to resilience as they sort of defined the risk shedder-taker relationship a while back and would risk affirming that they will continue to be around for the foreseeable future. One thought that came to mind on the 1st vidi was unrelated to insurance. Coffee shops seem to be pretty durable. - Pricing risk must have been extremely difficult back in the day. Did they have usable data or were they just winging it? Seems like a very complicated business with significant barriers to entry.
Cigarbutt Posted March 15, 2019 Posted March 15, 2019 Reducing the cost of float: https://www.reinsurancene.ws/berkshire-hathaway-guard-partners-with-ai-platform-planck/ https://www.planckdata.com/solutions ... If you have an interest in the Lloyd's insurance platform ... One thought that came to mind on the 1st vidi was unrelated to insurance. Coffee shops seem to be pretty durable. - Pricing risk must have been extremely difficult back in the day. Did they have usable data or were they just winging it? Seems like a very complicated business with significant barriers to entry. The early underwriting practices look quite primitive according to our modern standards but Edward Lloyd's coffee house was a major advance because the meeting place (market) output became of higher quality as decisions were based on a diverse range of well-informed participants and a data set based on a network of global correspondents reporting to Mr. Lloyd. I understand too that, at some point, groups of retired captains (isn't this related to what you did in your previous life?) eventually began associating at Lloyd's in order to share their expertise with brokers and underwriters specializing in marine insurance. What the Planck company is providing is both automatization of basic cognitive skills and trying to introduce data insights. Dealing with underwriters (personal or professional) more and more seems to involve answering a few questions that tend to capture the essence of risk for a particular situation. An interesting example for this process (insight from data) is when (I can't find the exact reference and the details may not be exact) an air force (UK?) was recruiting pilots during one of the major wars of the early part of the 20th century. For obvious reasons, many pilots did not come back from their missions and there were restraints on time to select and screen candidates. A screener had found that an answer to two simple questions increased significantly the chance that a pilot would come back alive with the plane after a "successful" mission. The first question: Did you ever ride a motorcycle? The second question: Do you still own one? The best results were obtained when the answers were yes for #1 and no for #2. I can't explain this but maybe AI can. The potential low-hanging fruit may lie in the expense ratio and the data insight impact on the loss ratio may be more challenging.
longtermdave Posted March 15, 2019 Posted March 15, 2019 An interesting example for this process (insight from data) is when (I can't find the exact reference and the details may not be exact) an air force (UK?) was recruiting pilots during one of the major wars of the early part of the 20th century. For obvious reasons, many pilots did not come back from their missions and there were restraints on time to select and screen candidates. A screener had found that an answer to two simple questions increased significantly the chance that a pilot would come back alive with the plane after a "successful" mission. The first question: Did you ever ride a motorcycle? The second question: Do you still own one? The best results were obtained when the answers were yes for #1 and no for #2. I can't explain this but maybe AI can. I can answer those questions "yes" and "no", as can my brother and father (a dirt-track racer before I was born), and here's my explanation: #1) I know what it is to face danger, my limits, and those of the machine. I can control my emotions and behavior in those situations. #2) I'm mature enough to not intentionally put myself in those situations anymore or take undue risks.
wachtwoord Posted March 15, 2019 Posted March 15, 2019 An interesting example for this process (insight from data) is when (I can't find the exact reference and the details may not be exact) an air force (UK?) was recruiting pilots during one of the major wars of the early part of the 20th century. For obvious reasons, many pilots did not come back from their missions and there were restraints on time to select and screen candidates. A screener had found that an answer to two simple questions increased significantly the chance that a pilot would come back alive with the plane after a "successful" mission. The first question: Did you ever ride a motorcycle? The second question: Do you still own one? The best results were obtained when the answers were yes for #1 and no for #2. I can't explain this but maybe AI can. I can answer those questions "yes" and "no", as can my brother and father (a dirt-track racer before I was born), and here's my explanation: #1) I know what it is to face danger, my limits, and those of the machine. I can control my emotions and behavior in those situations. #2) I'm mature enough to not intentionally put myself in those situations anymore or take undue risks. Sounds very plausible. Interesting!
gfp Posted March 16, 2019 Posted March 16, 2019 Proxy is out. Jain & Abel make $16 million each, plus $2m bonus. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1067983/000119312519076915/d684203ddef14a.htm
DooDiligence Posted March 16, 2019 Posted March 16, 2019 Digging into footnote 2 on WEB's comp. https://www.cnbc.com/id/47605253 Wear a cup.
Dynamic Posted March 18, 2019 Posted March 18, 2019 Lubrizol has made a presumably modest bolt on acquisition in France. Laboratoire Phenobio is the company's name. There was a press release too..
gfp Posted March 25, 2019 Posted March 25, 2019 Berkshire/3G romance on the rocks? McLane and Popeye's breaking up https://www.apnews.com/Business%20Wire/b754dd01c77a46deb4e269f1051a6f6f ;)
gfp Posted April 4, 2019 Posted April 4, 2019 WSJ article on Berkshire subsidiary cooperation - https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-berkshire-empire-is-quietly-collaborating-more-than-ever-11554370201?mod=hp_lead_pos3
Guest longinvestor Posted April 4, 2019 Posted April 4, 2019 WSJ article on Berkshire subsidiary cooperation - https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-berkshire-empire-is-quietly-collaborating-more-than-ever-11554370201?mod=hp_lead_pos3 We should not be surprised that this is happening. It will be a foolish surprise if they don't do this. Now, the real question is, will the next CEO move away from the current hands-off to a more active style of management.
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