Buffett/Berkshire - general news

[MadeItSquare]

10 hours ago, ratiman said:

Here's the plan: buy the legacy KHC brands with a stock for assets transaction, create a CPG platform within Berkshire, buy Smuckers, create a coffee giant with Smuckers (Folgers, Dunkin) and KHC coffee (Maxwell House, Gevalia) and then buy some of the redundant coffee assets from Keurig JDE as it merges. Fold Jif and Smuckers into the new coffee / CPG platform to rival the CPG giants, sell off the pet food. I realize nobody thinks this is a good idea but a CPG company within Berkshire is a natural fit, it should have been done a long time ago. 

I hope they set up an operation similar to Duracell’s. An acceptable end for a painful investment. Maybe Heinz.

Edited September 3, 2025 by MadeItSquare

[KCLarkin]

I briefly owned a few shares around the time of the merger. I remember looking at an image that showed all the brands owned by the KHC and realizing that Heinz Ketchup was the only brand we purchased somewhat regularly. Most everything else was a franken-food brand. I quickly sold the shares. I am with Warren: I don't see how any transaction will fix this trash can of dying brands.

 

 

[Munger_Disciple]

https://archive.ph/gaZWc

 

US is suing Southern California Edison for January Fires. This is a horrible development IMO for BRK's regulated utility businesses. I wonder if this part of BHE is permanently impaired. 

[Cigarbutt]

20 hours ago, Munger_Disciple said:

https://archive.ph/gaZWc

US is suing Southern California Edison for January Fires. This is a horrible development IMO for BRK's regulated utility businesses. I wonder if this part of BHE is permanently impaired. 

Opinion: The word permanent, like the word never, should never be used. 

Rising wildfire costs is a real issue but isn't there, out there, some kind of attempt to define how these costs will be shared?

Interesting developments that help with overall perspective (?):

BHE has been ramping up wildfire cost 'investments' and the trend is likely to continue to go up. Interestingly, these 'costs' are mostly capital spending which can be tied to base rate returns:

On the legislative front, cumulative progress (not necessarily visible through headlines) has been developing:

If the recent overall drift leading to a banana-republic style governance continues, permanent damage could happen to investor-owned utilities but (opinion) my bet (especially given the huge expected development in electricity infrastructure needed in the future to further civilization) is that 'we' will eventually figure it out (process not expected to be linear and requiring long term thinking).

Edited September 5, 2025 by Cigarbutt
minor spelling

[bizaro86]

20 hours ago, Munger_Disciple said:

https://archive.ph/gaZWc

 

US is suing Southern California Edison for January Fires. This is a horrible development IMO for BRK's regulated utility businesses. I wonder if this part of BHE is permanently impaired. 

 

I wonder if they'll try and move Rocky Mountain Power (Utah, Wyoming, Idaho) out of the Pacificorp group. It seems to me that having the California/Oregon operations linked to as little as possible would be desireable (and really they should probably be sold or spun off).

 

I think a wind farm in Iowa is probably not an existential risk, but I'd rather they not own transmission lines in forested northern CA.

[petec]

On 9/2/2025 at 10:06 PM, bizaro86 said:

 

Bonus points if you can flip pet food to Mars for a stake in that private company.

 

Don't they already own Wrigleys in a JV with Mars? Chuck it all in together!

[gfp]

18 minutes ago, petec said:

 

Don't they already own Wrigleys in a JV with Mars? Chuck it all in together!

 

No they got paid back / redeemed on that preferred stock investment a long time ago

[Munger_Disciple]

2 hours ago, Cigarbutt said:

Opinion: The word permanent, like the word never, should never be used. 

Rising wildfire costs is a real issue but isn't there, out there, some kind of attempt to define how these costs will be shared?

Interesting developments that help with overall perspective (?):

BHE has been ramping up wildfire cost 'investments' and the trend is likely to continue to go up. Interestingly, these 'costs' are mostly capital spending which can be tied to base rate returns:

On the legislative front, cumulative progress (not necessarily visible through headlines) has been developing:

If the recent overall drift leading to a banana-republic style governance continues, permanent damage could happen to investor-owned utilities but (opinion) my bet (especially given the huge expected development in electricity infrastructure needed in the future to further civilization) is that 'we' will eventually figure it out (process not expected to be linear and requiring long term thinking).

 

You are likely right @Cigarbutt. Perhaps this is short-medium term painful but possibly ok long term for BRK. But I think it opens up a new risk that wasn't previously considered by Buffett & Abel: that the rules can change in the middle of the game without prior warning. I suspect Warren & Greg will be a lot more cautious before putting new money into this business. 

[bizaro86]

51 minutes ago, Munger_Disciple said:

 

You are likely right @Cigarbutt. Perhaps this is short-medium term painful but possibly ok long term for BRK. But I think it opens up a new risk that wasn't previously considered by Buffett & Abel: that the rules can change in the middle of the game without prior warning. I suspect Warren & Greg will be a lot more cautious before putting new money into this business. 

 

I don't think that's a risk WEB missed, imo. He's always been clear that utilities are only good investments where they have a reasonable regulator.

 

Fires aren't an economic problem for the business if they're allowed to recover fire related costs in their rates. 

 

And they wouldn't be a problem at all if the regulators allowed the utilities to harden the grid and earn a return on that capex. 

[Munger_Disciple]

57 minutes ago, bizaro86 said:

 

I don't think that's a risk WEB missed, imo. He's always been clear that utilities are only good investments where they have a reasonable regulator.

 

 

You are not correct.

 

From Buffett's 2023 letter to shareholders:
"I did not anticipate or even consider the adverse developments in regulatory returns and, along with Berkshire’s two partners at BHE, I made a costly mistake in not doing so."

[Spekulatius]

On 9/2/2025 at 9:02 PM, ratiman said:

Here's the plan: buy the legacy KHC brands with a stock for assets transaction, create a CPG platform within Berkshire, buy Smuckers, create a coffee giant with Smuckers (Folgers, Dunkin) and KHC coffee (Maxwell House, Gevalia) and then buy some of the redundant coffee assets from Keurig JDE as it merges. Fold Jif and Smuckers into the new coffee / CPG platform to rival the CPG giants, sell off the pet food. I realize nobody thinks this is a good idea but a CPG company within Berkshire is a natural fit, it should have been done a long time ago. 

Sound like you are in investment banking

[Hektor]

https://www.wsj.com/finance/investing/this-buffett-devotee-is-plowing-billions-into-crypto-13dbba17

 

This Buffett Devotee Is Plowing Billions Into Crypto

Mutual-fund giant Capital Group is known for a disciplined approach. One of its top portfolio managers can’t get enough bitcoin.

 

Capital Group is a 94-year-old mutual-fund juggernaut known for its disciplined investing style. Mark Casey, a portfolio manager with 25 years of experience at the firm, quotes pioneering value-investor Benjamin Graham and says his “approach is very informed by Warren Buffett.”

 

That is why it is so surprising that Capital Group has placed a huge bet on bitcoin—one of the largest by a mainstream investment firm—and that Casey has emerged as one of most outspoken backers of the digital currency in the so-called TradFi world.

 

“I just love bitcoin, I just think it is so interesting,” Casey, 54, said on a podcast interview hosted by venture-capital firm Andreessen Horowitz last year, calling it “one of the coolest things that has ever been created by people.”

 

 

[DooDiligence]

Funny since Buffett doesn't even follow Grahams style.

Dude should slow his roll and own up to being an Ackman wannabe.

[CassiusKing1]

Irrational Exuberance is in the Air!

[Eldad]

2 hours ago, CassiusKing1 said:

Irrational Exuberance is in the Air!

It really is. Feels like it’s going to one of those Fed cuts where it’s a screaming down day right after the cut. 

[Eldad]

Just a general observation. 
 

I like listening to old BRK meetings while I work. I thought I would try a DJCO meeting to mix it up having never listened to one. 
 

At the BRK meeting Charlie usually says “I have nothing further to add” unless he has something very important to add. I always had the impression that Charlie was just maybe more secretive and didn’t always want to show BRKs hand. 
 

At DJCO he has to answer every question and I was left with a totally different feeling. I was left thinking wow this guy really thinks very highly of himself and actually has some very bad half baked ideas. No wonder he likes killing his ideas so much. 
 

Not trying to belittle Charlie, just as a personal lesson maybe I should keep my mouth shut unless I really know. 

[Munger_Disciple]

22 hours ago, Hektor said:

https://www.wsj.com/finance/investing/this-buffett-devotee-is-plowing-billions-into-crypto-13dbba17

 

This Buffett Devotee Is Plowing Billions Into Crypto

Mutual-fund giant Capital Group is known for a disciplined approach. One of its top portfolio managers can’t get enough bitcoin.

 

Capital Group is a 94-year-old mutual-fund juggernaut known for its disciplined investing style. Mark Casey, a portfolio manager with 25 years of experience at the firm, quotes pioneering value-investor Benjamin Graham and says his “approach is very informed by Warren Buffett.”

 

That is why it is so surprising that Capital Group has placed a huge bet on bitcoin—one of the largest by a mainstream investment firm—and that Casey has emerged as one of most outspoken backers of the digital currency in the so-called TradFi world.

 

“I just love bitcoin, I just think it is so interesting,” Casey, 54, said on a podcast interview hosted by venture-capital firm Andreessen Horowitz last year, calling it “one of the coolest things that has ever been created by people.”

 

 

Terrible headline! This guy has nothing in common with Buffett. I am very disappointed with WSJ editor who approved this clickbait. 

[DooDiligence]

Out of BYD completely. Is it just that he thinks the automotive cycle is nearing the end for now?

[gfp]

2 minutes ago, DooDiligence said:

Out of BYD completely. Is it just that he thinks the automotive cycle is nearing the end for now?

 

They've been steadily selling off the BYD at Berk Energy for years.  They were down to $400m worth at year-end.  We knew they were completely out as of March 31st on May 5th when they reported.  CNBC just decided it became news over the weekend randomly.

 

 

[Mephistopheles]

3 hours ago, DooDiligence said:

Out of BYD completely. Is it just that he thinks the automotive cycle is nearing the end for now?

 

I think Buffett was never comfortable with the China risk like Munger was. That's also why he got out of TSM after holding it briefly.

[gfp]

13 minutes ago, Mephistopheles said:

 

I think Buffett was never comfortable with the China risk like Munger was. That's also why he got out of TSM after holding it briefly.

Don't we all wish Warren had kept that TSM position.  Would have been a home run.  He was even bringing up the fault line under Taiwan as a risk! 

[DooDiligence]

3 hours ago, gfp said:

 

They've been steadily selling off the BYD at Berk Energy for years.  They were down to $400m worth at year-end.  We knew they were completely out as of March 31st on May 5th when they reported.  CNBC just decided it became news over the weekend randomly.

 

 

 

Thanks. Kinda sad the Berkshire threads have been so quiet.

[Munger_Disciple]

5 minutes ago, DooDiligence said:

 

Kinda sad the Berkshire threads have been so quiet.

 

There isn't much news to discuss, so it's not that surprising. 

 

I would like to restart the discussion by asking you all how do you think Greg will manage Berkshire & its future under him. 

Edited September 22, 2025 by Munger_Disciple

[DooDiligence]

3 minutes ago, Munger_Disciple said:

 

There seems to be not much news to discuss, so it's not that surprising. 

 

I would like to restart the discussion by asking you all how do you think Greg will manage Berkshire & its future under him. 

 

I'm a first level thinker, but I'd guess he may encourage more tuck-ins at the wholly owned subs. Other than that, I have no reliable thoughts.

 

edit: He may also try to invigorate subs by promoting entrepreneurial spirit for a bit of organic growth?

Edited September 22, 2025 by DooDiligence

[DooDiligence]

9 minutes ago, DooDiligence said:

 

I'm a first level thinker, but I'd guess he may encourage more tuck-ins at the wholly owned subs. Other than that, I have no reliable thoughts.

 

edit: He may also try to invigorate subs by promoting entrepreneurial spirit for a bit of organic growth?

 

I lied. I'm not entirely a first order thinker (especially when it comes to personal decisions).

 

https://fs.blog/second-order-thinking/

 

I know this doesn't belong here, but it got me to thinking. Is there an existing thread for this? I'd be interested in how others manage to think more moves ahead. Specifically, with regard to qualitative analysis and tea leaf reading.