Ukraine?

[warrior]

 

I don't know

 

But I think they need to think outside the box a little. Can they get China involved. China has in the past been very vocal about sovereignty. 

 

I think this event sends a loud and clear signal to iran and North Korea : no matter what get nukes, or nobody will treat you seriously

 

what specifically should USA do?

 

stuff "happens". I am pretty sure Russia was not crazy about USA unilaterally invading Iraq and installing a puppet regime. The history of our empire reveals these kind of activities are par for the course. this is why we don't have a lot of credibility on this issue. a paper tiger. miltary action is off the table. after all the Russian Bear is no Iraq.

if Russia declared a war . I wonder , doesn't this declaration of war against US , as we had garanteed Ukrainian sovereignty.

I hope putin just bluffing,  I think he wants to create tension in the region, sort of frozen conflict. So  Russia can be a "peacemaker" in Ukraine

[Guest wellmont]

we don't "declare" war anymore. it's not practical. he won't either. because doing so puts your opponent in a bad spot. so you just do what you plan to do and don't define it. then it won't force our hand.

[matts]

 

I don't know

 

But I think they need to think outside the box a little. Can they get China involved. China has in the past been very vocal about sovereignty. 

 

I think this event sends a loud and clear signal to iran and North Korea : no matter what get nukes, or nobody will treat you seriously

 

what specifically should USA do?

 

stuff "happens". I am pretty sure Russia was not crazy about USA unilaterally invading Iraq and installing a puppet regime. The history of our empire reveals these kind of activities are par for the course. this is why we don't have a lot of credibility on this issue. a paper tiger. miltary action is off the table. after all the Russian Bear is no Iraq.

if Russia declared a war . I wonder , doesn't this declaration of war against US , as we had garanteed Ukrainian sovereignty.

I hope putin just bluffing,  I think he wants to create tension in the region, sort of frozen conflict. So  Russia can be a "peacemaker" in Ukraine

 

Russia has not declared war, and Ukraine is not a part of NATO.

 

What CAN the west do? That is the key question. I think the vast majority agrees that this is an aggressive move by the Russians. But it's the so what that matters. The west won't go to war over this. Unfortunately for the pro-EU Ukrainians, the west has made Poland the "Red Line", not Ukraine. My guess is that one of two things will happen:

 

1) Putin is using his control of Crimea to have leverage during the talks that will establish the new political reality in Ukraine but will then leave Crimea.

 

2) Crimea will end up just like South Ossetia. Part of Ukraine in legal terms only, but in all ways controlled by Russia. There is precedent for this with both Ossetia and Abkhazia.

 

I don't think the west would take military action to stop 2). Any potential economic sanctions will play a big factor in determining what happens next.

[SharperDingaan]

Oil trunk pipeline http://www.ukrtransnafta.com/en/about_company/shema/

Gas trunk pipeline http://www.eegas.com/ukraine.htm

Pipelines to Europe http://news.kievukraine.info/2006/01/european-moves-to-solve-gas-row.html

 

Note that the Ukraine gas fields are primarily in the east, near Russia; & south, again near Russia (Sevastopol). Germany can also bypass Ukraine & access Russian supplies via Belarus. Not possible for France.

 

In 2006; 95M cubic feet was being siphoned off a day (mob cut). It is now 8 years later, & no-one gets anything if that Russian gas flow stops.

 

Two guys laying charges against a line is very old-fashioned. In the modern age you hack the systems & order compressor stations to over-pressure intervening pipe. The older the pipe, the more corrosion they will be, & the better your odds of explosive rupture. No fixing it for a very long time. http://www.taproot.com/content/wp-content/uploads/2010/12/Pressrel_2010_images_San_Bruno_28-foot-long_ruptured_section_of_pipeline.jpg

 

Forget the Russians - go shopping in Germany & France; & hope for protests in Belarus.

 

SD

 

[fenris]

If the US/EU don't defend Ukraine's sovereignty do you think any other country will trust a treaty signed by US/EU providing them protection? Do you think any other country will ever consider giving up existing nukes or plans/ability to develop nukes?

Have you thought about what it means to "defend Ukraine's sovereignty"? We are talking about a country which they used to call "little Russia" a century ago. And you think the EU and US would draw the line here, on Russia's front porch, and threaten to go to war over it? What would they have to gain and would it justify the risks? Should the US have some jets circle over Ukraine to project force? What if one got shot down? This is a high stakes game with potentially terrible outcomes and it's very easy to maneuver yourself into a corner. Best not to buy into the game if you're not prepared to see it through to the end (which nobody in the West is). I can guarantee you every actor in this play has carefully considered what they are willing to wager. And Putin's conclusion has been he can make a move. That should tell you all you need to know.

 

I would also reiterate that Crimea is a sideshow because it's pretty clear that it's Russian now and will remain so (nobody can force them to leave by force and they will get a majority of the people to vote to split from Ukraine). The real question is what will happen to Ukraine East of the Dnieper river (and Kiev which sits on top of it..).

[dutchman]

Putin spent the last 5 years of his life and 50 billion dollars to refine Russia's and his own image in the world. 

He flushed that all down the toilet without hesitation for Ukraine.  Tells you how important and non-negotiable this is for him.

In terms of sanctions, what can they do ?  Is europe/asia going to stop purchasing energy they desperately need ?

They don't really export much else.

[adesigar]

If the US/EU don't defend Ukraine's sovereignty do you think any other country will trust a treaty signed by US/EU providing them protection? Do you think any other country will ever consider giving up existing nukes or plans/ability to develop nukes?

Have you thought about what it means to "defend Ukraine's sovereignty"? We are talking about a country which they used to call "little Russia" a century ago. And you think the EU and US would draw the line here, on Russia's front porch, and threaten to go to war over it? What would they have to gain and would it justify the risks? Should the US have some jets circle over Ukraine to project force? What if one got shot down? This is a high stakes game with potentially terrible outcomes and it's very easy to maneuver yourself into a corner. Best not to buy into the game if you're not prepared to see it through to the end (which nobody in the West is). I can guarantee you every actor in this play has carefully considered what they are willing to wager. And Putin's conclusion has been he can make a move. That should tell you all you need to know.

 

I would also reiterate that Crimea is a sideshow because it's pretty clear that it's Russian now and will remain so (nobody can force them to leave by force and they will get a majority of the people to vote to split from Ukraine). The real question is what will happen to Ukraine East of the Dnieper river (and Kiev which sits on top of it..).

Just my opinion but in my mind its simple. Every country bordering Russia/China/etc is watching. If Russia gets away with this, it will say to the countries watching that their only defense is Nuclear Weapons and assurances/treaties/documents from the US/UK/France/EU are meaningless. The world can forget Iran/N Korea ever giving up nukes. Rather other countries will try to obtain them for deterrence purposes from countries who have developed such capabilities.

[Orange]

Putin spent the last 5 years of his life and 50 billion dollars to refine Russia's and his own image in the world. 

He flushed that all down the toilet without hesitation for Ukraine.

 

I disagree. Russia's image went down the toilet way before this, with the whole; lets all beat up the gays - policies. Obama refused to attend the Sochi olympics, because of this. First time a president did that since the cold war I believe. Not to mention the pussy riot fiasco, and how they treat protestors. This was all done while the rest of the civilized world moved in the exact opposite direction in terms of lgbt rights.

[CorpRaider]

 

I don't know

 

But I think they need to think outside the box a little. Can they get China involved. China has in the past been very vocal about sovereignty. 

 

I think this event sends a loud and clear signal to iran and North Korea : no matter what get nukes, or nobody will treat you

 

what specifically should USA do?

.  Probably be because they may rememeber when russia just took a large chunk of territory from them back when they were weak.

[matts]

China wants no piece of this. Ya they are concerned because they border Russia. But isn't it LESS likely that the Russians cause any trouble with the Chinese while they are engaged in crimea/NATO?

 

Another 5 years and the Chinese military will not have much to fear from a Russian invasion (sans nuclear weapons of course). China will issue the usual boilerplate language that they have concerns over any violation of sovereignty to appease the global community, but it will have no teeth.

 

China knows the two biggest things they need in order to become a global power is time and their own internal stability. I don't think they want to be drawn into tension with Russia.

 

[original mungerville]

Russia deploying troops is very bad.....and if the US and Europe do nothing there will be even wider implications than Russia "just" taking over Ukraine.  Europe, the US and Russia signed a treaty agreeing to the borders of Ukraine in exchange for Ukraine giving up their nukes.

If the US and Europe do nothing to help Ukraine against Russian aggression then other US allies around the world will see the US as both weak and unwilling to live up to their commitments. Think Asia and the various countries in the region counting on US support against China. They would see this as a sign that the US can not be counted on in times of crisis and would start seeking  other alliances.  This could be one of those pivitol moments in US foreign policy. Lets hope Obama gets it right!!

 

cheers

Zorro

 

Zorrofan,

 

Do you really think the US wants to get involved fighting Russia in their backyard? What makes you think they can win on the ground in Putin's backyard? Do you think Putin would cave to US pressure?

 

Look, I'm no expert but if the US doesn't back down, let Europe negotiate with Putin, this can spin out of control.

 

 

[original mungerville]

If the US/EU don't defend Ukraine's sovereignty do you think any other country will trust a treaty signed by US/EU providing them protection? Do you think any other country will ever consider giving up existing nukes or plans/ability to develop nukes?

Have you thought about what it means to "defend Ukraine's sovereignty"? We are talking about a country which they used to call "little Russia" a century ago. And you think the EU and US would draw the line here, on Russia's front porch, and threaten to go to war over it? What would they have to gain and would it justify the risks? Should the US have some jets circle over Ukraine to project force? What if one got shot down? This is a high stakes game with potentially terrible outcomes and it's very easy to maneuver yourself into a corner. Best not to buy into the game if you're not prepared to see it through to the end (which nobody in the West is). I can guarantee you every actor in this play has carefully considered what they are willing to wager. And Putin's conclusion has been he can make a move. That should tell you all you need to know.

 

I would also reiterate that Crimea is a sideshow because it's pretty clear that it's Russian now and will remain so (nobody can force them to leave by force and they will get a majority of the people to vote to split from Ukraine). The real question is what will happen to Ukraine East of the Dnieper river (and Kiev which sits on top of it..).

 

Exactly.

[Zorrofan]

Russia deploying troops is very bad.....and if the US and Europe do nothing there will be even wider implications than Russia "just" taking over Ukraine.  Europe, the US and Russia signed a treaty agreeing to the borders of Ukraine in exchange for Ukraine giving up their nukes.

If the US and Europe do nothing to help Ukraine against Russian aggression then other US allies around the world will see the US as both weak and unwilling to live up to their commitments. Think Asia and the various countries in the region counting on US support against China. They would see this as a sign that the US can not be counted on in times of crisis and would start seeking  other alliances.  This could be one of those pivitol moments in US foreign policy. Lets hope Obama gets it right!!

 

cheers

Zorro

 

Zorrofan,

 

Do you really think the US wants to get involved fighting Russia in their backyard? What makes you think they can win on the ground in Putin's backyard? Do you think Putin would cave to US pressure?

 

Look, I'm no expert but if the US doesn't back down, let Europe negotiate with Putin, this can spin out of control.

 

 

OM

 

Does the US WANT to get involved? Of course not, but I am saying that all of our allies are watching to see what happens. How does Taiwan feel given the US is supposed to protect them from China? South Korea from North Korea? Israel vs Iran. What message will doing nothing send to countries such as China and Iran? The longer term costs (in foreign policy) will be huge if nothing is done.

 

I don't want a war, and i don't think there will be one. What I am saying is that Europe (NATO) and the US have to do something. I don't imagine Putin wants a war either but he is counting on the US to talk, talk, talk some more and do nothing. Putin put 15,000 troops in Crimea because he is not expecting a fight. If NATO/US puts a few hundred troops into Ukraine as part of a "training exercise" Putin will get the message. Restart the missile defense shield along the Polish border with Russia as well. Putin doesn't give a rat's A@@ about being kicked out of the G8.  He will care about the missile defense shield, about sanctions that hurt economically, and of course he will understand force.  A few troops in Ukraine sends him a message and he will back down.  Doing nothing costs more in the long run.

 

cheers

Zorro

 

 

[Palantir]

If NATO/US puts a few hundred troops into Ukraine as part of a "training exercise" Putin will get the message. Restart the missile defense shield along the Polish border with Russia as well. Putin doesn't give a rat's A@@ about being kicked out of the G8.  He will care about the missile defense shield, about sanctions that hurt economically, and of course he will understand force.  A few troops in Ukraine sends him a message and he will back down.  Doing nothing costs more in the long run.

 

 

I think this is reasonable. The missile shield has been a sore point, restarting that is a good idea I think.

[Cardboard]

The U.S. with their current weak international policies has already lost 2 battles on the international front: the Syrian chemical accord and the Iranian deal.

 

Both deals were largely supported by Russia and dictated the terms for the most part. And if you kept track of what is going on, both deals are essentially falling apart with Syria being quite slow giving up its chemical weapons and Iran still moving full steam ahead with its nuke development and constantly threatening to not sign a final deal.

 

So Putin knows he is dealing with a weak opponent talking a lot but, having no teeth. Very different than Reagan or George W. Bush who they considered dangerous. So I think that Russia will do whatever it wants right now until Obama says that they are willing to go to war with them if they cross some "red line": go Defcon 3. It has to be a true red line and not comments like he made about Syria using chemical weapons against his own people.

 

If Russia does not reverse course in Crimea, I believe like other posters that the situation elsewhere will deteriorate. Israel and Saudi Arabia will definitely take that as a green light to take matters in their own hands regarding Iran. Can they trust the U.S. after that? No way! Will Poland continue to trust NATO's help or will it go nuclear? Wherever there are border issues, minorities, language or religious differences will see that as an excuse to act.

 

Regarding Putin and Russia, I am amazed that after multiple centuries that they are still unable to get away from corruption, war, dictators. Vast resources, some of the smartest mathematicians, capable to design top notch weapons but, totally unable to get the country going into some form of positive, stable, growing environment for all their citizens.

 

Cardboard

[constructive]

The immediate goal of American diplomacy is to improve the situation in the Ukraine, not address problems elsewhere in the world. Military threats would only make Ukrainian civil war more likely.

 

Realistically we are limited in our response to Russian aggression in Crimea. It's past time to give up the Team America World Police mentality.

[Uccmal]

The immediate goal of American diplomacy is to improve the situation in the Ukraine, not address problems elsewhere in the world. Military threats would only make Ukrainian civil war more likely.

 

Realistically we are limited in our response to Russian aggression in Crimea. It's past time to give up the Team America World Police mentality.

 

The voice of sanity.  Any response has to be coordinated.  The British, and EU countries are more than capable of responding to Russia when they are ready.  This is another wholesale mess bought to us by the geopolitics and greed of fossil fuels. 

 

Putin is trying to stay in power and using the well worn strategy of attacking a non-existent threat to gain traction at home.  Right out of the George W./Dick Cheney playbook. 

[CorpRaider]

We can step up the pace of preparation for exporting LNG to europe so they can really cut the Russians off at the knees if need be. 

[matts]

We can step up the pace of preparation for exporting LNG to europe so they can really cut the Russians off at the knees if need be.

 

I'm sure energy independence will become the biggest priority in Europe, but significant LNG bandwidth is still years away. Until then, Putin has a strong hand which he is now playing.

 

[cubsfan]

After 2 wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, I can't imagine getting involved with this.

 

Don't understand it well, but if Crimea is largely a ethnic Russian population and they want to succeed from

the Ukraine - let them sort it out. We can apply our sanctions to Russia, etc - but I'd hate to see any show of

force. We should pick our battles carefully if the current ethnic population of Crimea wants no part of the Ukraine.

[CorpRaider]

We can step up the pace of preparation for exporting LNG to europe so they can really cut the Russians off at the knees if need be.

 

I'm sure energy independence will become the biggest priority in Europe, but significant LNG bandwidth is still years away. Until then, Putin has a strong hand which he is now playing.

 

Yeah, I also read an article about them firing up coal plants.  We've lots of that too.

[cr6196]

The immediate goal of American diplomacy is to improve the situation in the Ukraine, not address problems elsewhere in the world. Military threats would only make Ukrainian civil war more likely.

 

Realistically we are limited in our response to Russian aggression in Crimea. It's past time to give up the Team America World Police mentality.

 

The voice of sanity.  Any response has to be coordinated.  The British, and EU countries are more than capable of responding to Russia when they are ready.  This is another wholesale mess bought to us by the geopolitics and greed of fossil fuels. 

 

Putin is trying to stay in power and using the well worn strategy of attacking a non-existent threat to gain traction at home.  Right out of the George W./Dick Cheney playbook.

 

I agree with the above sentiments...without trying to start any controversy, there appears to be a deep sense of insecurity/paranoia in some of the answers. This has definitely been a feature of US society/FP for a long time but is fairly surprising how strong it still is. Either way, this event really won't trigger anything. The latest stuff about the future size of the armed forces was significantly more important.

 

Also, and this is something I have noticed in Europe too, people seem to think Putin is unpopular, he isn't. Granted there are other factors to consider but he is generally as or more popular than other world leaders in their own countries. This misinterpretation of Putin's position seems to be borne out of the assumption that everyone should believe the same thing. For example, the "anti-gay" legislation caused a huge furoe in my country. Not only was the legislation rather tame in comparison to similar legislation in other "friendly" countries but it was also hugely popular because Russian people are homophobic. That isn't particularly nice but Russian people are entitled to that view. The way to change that probably isn't to tell them that they have 19th century views and generally berate everything they do. Moreover, not taking a hard line, in this case, wouldn't assumed elsewhere to be a sign of weakness esp. when the US wouldn't be fighting for anything, it would be a sign of deep insecurity that would terrify much of the world. On top of this, Russia is fairly vulnerable to economic sanctions.

[Aberhound]

Putin is the chess grandmaster revealing the powerlessness of the Deep State. Russians know from Stalin than money power is meaningless when it's machinations are revealed to all and a schism is created between the State and the people. Churchill boasted he had greater power than Stalin and Hitler because of democratic legitimacy. Obama has no legitimacy like Churchill nor would Bush due to the suspicions of the family's involvement in the Kennedy assassination and 9/11 and the cover ups. Putin knows the Deep State well and likely blames them, not Obama for events in Ukraine. Obama will likely say to the Deep State you caused it so you clean it up. Watch for financial punishments of Russia starting with currency weakness, a rise in their bond rates and a drop in their equity markets. Germany has extremely close ties with Russia so will stop any western government punishment. Germany is shutting their nukes to prevent blackmail from the 3/11 perpetrators so now depends on Russian gas. Germany is also upset with NSA theft of its technology and delivery to Israel in the alleged NSA base there. US will ramp up cheap gas exports to Europe just as it is now exporting refined oil. I am buying KMI as the US NG sector should benefit. Just wait for the surprise when US companies start to announce how much gas they have in the gulf.

 

We would all be better off if the US reaffirmed the Treaty of Westphalia. What is the difference between Libya and Ukraine? Naked aggression over control of resources and destabilzation. Russia will protect its pipelines and can see the coming food shortages from the little ice age. They need access to the breadbasket. The Deep State wants western Ukraine tight gas and control over the wheat. The Ukrainian people will get little from either. Merkel opposed Libya for good reasons just like Chrétien opposed Iraq. Responsibility to protect has been revealed to be Desire to Destabilize to allow private control of resources instead of allowing citizens to profit from resources in their country. Every country which have been invaded under RTP have had kleptocrats placed into power. Libya in particular was to prevent the re establishment of the Roman breadbasket.

[constructive]

On top of this, Russia is fairly vulnerable to economic sanctions.

 

This is true but sanctions would have to be limited. If you apply extreme sanctions and turn off Gazprom pipelines in winter time, people all over central Europe would freeze to death.

[cr6196]

On top of this, Russia is fairly vulnerable to economic sanctions.

 

This is true but sanctions would have to be limited. If you apply extreme sanctions and turn off Gazprom pipelines in winter time, people all over central Europe would freeze to death.

 

Right, that is party true (although coal is used as well) but those wouldn't be the sanctions. Capital flight from Russia is $70bn/year so something can be done with that, travel restrictions, stuff with the G8/UN, other trade sanctions, etc.