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Ukraine?


jouni1
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any views on what's going to happen here? seems pretty tense. obama told putin not to use force, and hours later putin asks the upper house for approval on using troops in ukraine.

 

ukrainian sources say there's 6000 russian troops in the country already. they've taken over airports and other locations in the russia-minded crimea part of the country. most of the people there consider themselves more russian than anything else.

 

is eastern europe turning into a battleground or can they find a peaceful solution? most of the time russia deploying troops is a bad sign.

 

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-26400035 - Putin seeks Ukraine troop deployment

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Russia deploying troops is very bad.....and if the US and Europe do nothing there will be even wider implications than Russia "just" taking over Ukraine.  Europe, the US and Russia signed a treaty agreeing to the borders of Ukraine in exchange for Ukraine giving up their nukes.

If the US and Europe do nothing to help Ukraine against Russian aggression then other US allies around the world will see the US as both weak and unwilling to live up to their commitments. Think Asia and the various countries in the region counting on US support against China. They would see this as a sign that the US can not be counted on in times of crisis and would start seeking  other alliances.  This could be one of those pivitol moments in US foreign policy. Lets hope Obama gets it right!!

 

cheers

Zorro

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The country is split, half of it is more russian oriented, the other half inclusive kiew is more oriented to the western world. Russia has an important military base on the Krim and i think that is the reason they are sending their troops. I don`t think that the situation will end in war, but its possible that the Ukraine will split itself into two pieces.

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Ukraine is not split as West and East , as some media try to present, people of Ukraine in general opposed the corrupt t government killing innocent people.  It is propaganda stating that nationalists took the power in Ukraine.

And Russia as always wanted to “help”, 1939 pact Hitler with Stalin when Russia invaded west part of Ukraine-Poland, Hungry 1956, Afghanistan -1979, Georgia -2008. 2014- Ukraine?

and think about  the statement ,” to preserve  peace and  help our people “...

 

 

 

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Ukraine is not split as West and East , as some media try to present, people of Ukraine in general opposed the corrupt t government killing innocent people.  It is propaganda stating that nationalists took the power in Ukraine.

And Russia as always wanted to “help”, 1939 pact Hitler with Stalin when Russia invaded west part of Ukraine-Poland, Hungry 1956, Afghanistan -1979, Georgia -2008. 2014- Ukraine?

and think about  the statement ,” to preserve  peace and  help our people “...

 

So why did Crimea vote for a referendum? Why did Ukraine abolish the second language law? Coincidences? Regardless, as the current govt gained power by force and through the actions of a minority (whatever anyone might suspect about what the population might think "in general") they are to some degree illegitimate (the irony of politicians in Kiev denouncing Crimean "separatists" is too much). I doubt anything major will happen but this is the point of maximum risk, esp. when you have politicians that are so notoriously venal and citizens that have been screwed before. Will be interesting to see who gives money and how though. I doubt the EU will do anything major soon.

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Ukraine is not split as West and East , as some media try to present, people of Ukraine in general opposed the corrupt t government killing innocent people.  It is propaganda stating that nationalists took the power in Ukraine.

And Russia as always wanted to “help”, 1939 pact Hitler with Stalin when Russia invaded west part of Ukraine-Poland, Hungry 1956, Afghanistan -1979, Georgia -2008. 2014- Ukraine?

and think about  the statement ,” to preserve  peace and  help our people “...

 

So why did Crimea vote for a referendum? Why did Ukraine abolish the second language law? Coincidences?

At this moment , It seems that  pro Russian military forces occupied Crimea ,

Took over parliament of  Crimea and admin buildings  ( made the head of Crimea  parliament  to resigned) and proclaimed the referendum in 28 days.  How legal this call for referendum ?

 

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While i don't see this situation devolving into a crisis, since this is an investment forum, what do people think the market reaction will be on Monday?  Just an excuse to consolidate, or a genuine increase in fear and uncertainty, or just to ignore the whole thing?

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Ukraine is not split as West and East , as some media try to present, people of Ukraine in general opposed the corrupt t government killing innocent people.  It is propaganda stating that nationalists took the power in Ukraine.

And Russia as always wanted to “help”, 1939 pact Hitler with Stalin when Russia invaded west part of Ukraine-Poland, Hungry 1956, Afghanistan -1979, Georgia -2008. 2014- Ukraine?

and think about  the statement ,” to preserve  peace and  help our people “...

 

So why did Crimea vote for a referendum? Why did Ukraine abolish the second language law? Coincidences?

At this moment , It seems that  pro Russian military forces occupied Crimea ,

Took over parliament of  Crimea and admin buildings  ( made the head of Crimea  parliament  to resigned) and proclaimed the referendum in 28 days.  How legal this call for referendum ?

 

As legal as everything that was done in Kiev...at best.

 

In terms of the effect on markets, it is hard to tell...I think most of the time this kind of thing would have no effect but given what has happened the past six months destabilising capital flows are more likely. This would be from people who had money in Ukraine selling other stuff because they can't get currency out or people in neighbouring countries selling their own currency. Georgia triggered large outflows from Russia but that was in 2008 so other trends were present. I don't see any other way this event could be relevant?

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There may be selling of Russian companies (including the super-cheap Lukoil).  However, Lukoil has been declining over the past few weeks so this may be baked into that value.  I am sure Russian investors were not surprised by this.  I think this says more about the US intelligence and/or leadership that they were surprised about this.  I am not sure we would not do the same.  Wait we already have in Guantanimo Bay, Cuba.

 

Packer

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This thing is probably going to go for a while, & get a lot worse.

 

Anything Russian o/g is very vulnerable. All a radical need do is blow the gas pipeline &/or pumping stations, or blow a hole through any of the individual ship-borne nukes powering the Black Sea fleet in Sevastapol. You sow what you reap, & those Russian troops are not there for fun.

 

Short of mass relocation (India/Pakistan, Israel/Palestine, North/South Korea, etc.) & partition, it is also hard to see any real prospect for longer term relative stability. Premiums for secure supply, higher spot rates on all tanker traffic, & something additional for the largest possible tankers that can pass through Suez or Panama.

 

SD

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For me russias move looks like a friendly takeover. The ukraine marine has just turned over to follow the russian friendly crimea government.

What can the EU and the USA do, if the crimea population just votes to be russian?

 

All the screaming from Kerry is worth nothing to solve the problem. Crimea belonged historically more to russia than to the ukraine.

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Crimea is a done deal. It is de facto Russian (both in terms of military presence after the stealth invasion and because a large share of the population is Russian) and will not come back. I don't know whether the Ukrainian troops there will fight or not but it makes no difference.

 

A Ukraine that is not tightly aligned with (and dependent on) Russia will inevitably gravitate to the EU/US/NATO. Irrespective of whether it will turn out to be a democracy or a fascist/right-wing autocracy. It would be foolish to think that Russia could possibly allow NATO to have a beachhead some 500 kilometers from Moscow (ie. Northeastern Ukrainian border) without fighting tooth and nails.

 

In my mind, the most likely outcome is a split of Ukraine along the Dnieper river with the Eastern part either becoming a part of Russia or becoming a Belarus-style satellite. While the Russians skillfully used the chaos in Ukraine to occupy Crimea, capturing Eastern Ukraine will likely require full scale warfare (not certain but I think it's more likely than not, unless there will be a political process for these regions to split from Ukraine).

 

Looking at each actor and the incentives, it becomes clear that there is little that "the West" can do to change this outcome. Engaging in conventional warfare in Ukraine offers very little reward for EU/US/NATO and very high risks. One could target Russian oligarchs and business interests but I doubt this would keep the Russians from at least seizing Eastern Ukraine and one has to keep in mind that Central Europe is dependent on the gas (as much as Russia is dependent on the export revenue).

 

The only feasible involvement could be for foreign troops to be stationed in Western Ukraine to protect the integrity of that portion of the country while allowing Russia to claim Crimea & the Eastern portion. Maybe the Polish will be bold enough to get involved in that way. Either way, it exposes the core EU countries as weak and might lead to changes in the medium/long-term strategic thinking and military spend.

 

It is also conceivable that Ukraine will leverage the pipelines which are Russia's key revenue source. The threat of blowing up the pipes on a large scale might keep the Russians east of the river.

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What about the international treaty signed - Ukraine gave up nukes for sovereignty guarantee from Russia....

 

I'm continued to be amazed by cnn to have the resources to be at all places.... that's a great competitive advantage. 

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What about the international treaty signed - Ukraine gave up nukes for sovereignty guarantee from Russia.

What about it? Do you think the US will go to war with Russia over Ukraine because of a treaty? Do you think the EU will?

 

I think if/when Russia makes a move on Eastern Ukraine, the West will get serious with economic sanctions to put pressure on Russia's oligarchs. What else could they do?

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I picture this all being very calculated. Putin having advisors Like that chess dude Kronsteen from the bond movie From Russia with love.

 

They probably know what will happen next, but it had positive expected value for them to send troops in. Or maybe putin is desperate, and he needs to do this, to keep a strong grip on his country.

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What about the international treaty signed - Ukraine gave up nukes for sovereignty guarantee from Russia.

What about it? Do you think the US will go to war with Russia over Ukraine because of a treaty? Do you think the EU will?

 

I think if/when Russia makes a move on Eastern Ukraine, the West will get serious with economic sanctions to put pressure on Russia's oligarchs. What else could they do?

 

If the US/EU don't defend Ukraine's sovereignty do you think any other country will trust a treaty signed by US/EU providing them protection? Do you think any other country will ever consider giving up existing nukes or plans/ability to develop nukes?

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Guest wellmont

I think this event sends a loud and clear signal to iran and North Korea : no matter what get nukes, or nobody will treat you seriously

 

what specifically should USA do?

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For me russias move looks like a friendly takeover. The ukraine marine has just turned over to follow the russian friendly crimea government.

What can the EU and the USA do, if the crimea population just votes to be russian?

 

All the screaming from Kerry is worth nothing to solve the problem. Crimea belonged historically more to russia than to the ukraine.

in fact, it is not a friendly takeover.

it is a military occupation of  a sovereign country.  Where  we had guaranteed sovereign status .I'm not sure if Crimea historically belongs to Russia,  I thought  to Crimean  Tatars ,who are by the way opposing Russian intervention. It is not funny , how Putin wants to protect Russians in Ukraine who do  not need his help .

Interesting,  how market will react on Monday.

 

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I don't know

 

But I think they need to think outside the box a little. Can they get China involved. China has in the past been very vocal about sovereignty. 

 

I think this event sends a loud and clear signal to iran and North Korea : no matter what get nukes, or nobody will treat you seriously

 

what specifically should USA do?

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From my limited take on the situation and listening to RT it appears the Russians may "rescue" the Southern and Eastern Ukranians from the Ukraine.  It looks like there may be a divided country (probably the best solution given the current situation).

 

Packer

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Guest wellmont

 

I don't know

 

But I think they need to think outside the box a little. Can they get China involved. China has in the past been very vocal about sovereignty. 

 

I think this event sends a loud and clear signal to iran and North Korea : no matter what get nukes, or nobody will treat you seriously

 

what specifically should USA do?

 

stuff "happens". I am pretty sure Russia was not crazy about USA unilaterally invading Iraq and installing a puppet regime. The history of our empire reveals these kind of activities are par for the course. this is why we don't have a lot of credibility on this issue. a paper tiger. miltary action is off the table. after all the Russian Bear is no Iraq.

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