TwoCitiesCapital

+1 As far as it being a smack in the face to savers, I don't mind offending the dead. As far as it going to "free loading 3rd parties", just know your kids could be described the same way. They didn't earn it - you did. I'm all for the productive members of society getting to keep as much of the value they create as possible. I'm not ok with dynastic wealth that bestows power and privilege upon generations of people who did nothing to add value to society to earn it.

Or just eliminate the tax benefits that trusts create Ultimately, I'd rather rac inheritance than earned money/wealth any day. We could absolutely make it work, but would required coordination between the IRS and Congress to close loopholes. For those with small businesses? Get a fucking loan and stop pretending like its a burden to inherit something of value that is worthwhile just because it's taxed a bit

Is it not possible that has already happened? Last I checked the top 5 companies in the S&P 500 were at like 26% of the entire thing (Facebook, Amazon, Apple Tesla, and Google) which was comparable to the dotcom bubble. If you look at the Russell 1000 growth index, the top 5 are like over 30%. How much further do they need to go for us to consider it a consolidation into the top/best names?

Estate taxes and inheritance taxes are one of the few taxes I do NOT have an issue with. I think they're superior to income taxes in just about every way and you can effectively target those who you intend to with it.

The loans are collateralized in the event things go south, but yes things can go wrong. Just like SPACS can trade below NAV, money markets can break the buck, and etc. At 7-9%, I think you're well compensated for the risk. Again, traditional financial markets are giving high yield credits with high likely good of default and no collateralization 4-6%.

I didn't say risk free. There's counterparty risk. They're bank-like institutions. They take your stable coins as deposits and make loans to crypto companies that have a hard time getting traditional financing, or crypto traders pledging crypto as collateral, or hedge fund, or etc. It's the traditional banking model without FDIC support. I don't know as much about Celsius, but my understanding is all loans at BlockFi are collateralized and they survived the 2018 drawdown so that alleviates my fears. Seeing as BTC has averaged 100% returns every year since it's inception and crypto as a whole is super volatile, borrowers in the space are generally happy to pay the 7-10% interest for the ability to leverage 50-100% swings. I tend to think of it along the lines of high yield credit. But instead of yielding 4%, it yields 7-10% without the beta.

I've been using Celsius and BlockFi to earn decent interest on taxable cash reserves. Neither Celsius nor BlockFi are FDIC insured, so there is counterparty risk to consider but each offer competitive interest on stablecoins that track the USD ranging from 7-9% without beta. USDC (Coinbase backed - audited and publicly traded) or GUSD (Gemeni backed - audited and owned by the Winklevoss twins) are the two coins I tend to use. Celsius pays weekly and updates rates weekly. BlockFi does monthly. Might spread some money across each and some of the ideas mentioned above to reduce any counterparty risk. Referral codes below. Full disclosure - we each will receive a small reward if you sign up using either of the links and meet the offer terms. https://blockfi.com/?ref=bb07722e BlockFi referral code https://celsiusnetwork.app.link/15996169ea Celsius referral link

Maybe just another checkmark in IB's favor. I know there's a thread where people were hating all over IB awhile back. They do have some of their own issues, but seem vastly better than any other broker I work with. This is just another example of them excelling where others are marginal and mediocre.

Anyone have Schwab and know when this is going to pay? Just seems strange that I was paid out on IB over 10 days ago and still waiting for Schwab. Schwab representatives were less than helpful in giving me an ETA and basically said they don't know as it is Computershare processing.

From the most recent earnings call: And later in the Q&A

What do you think HAS changed since 2018 until today? I mean, the vast bulk of these investment problems occurred pre-2018 and Fairfax still traded at 1.2x book. So why so low today? The only thing I can see that is substantially different is interest rates. This suggests that the re-rating, or failure to do so, has nothing to do with Prem's reputation or how the market perceives him (because he isn't any different from 2018 Prem), but rather based on expectations for how much passive income the float can produce which has everything to do with interest rates. So just like this traded at 1.2x book in 2018 when people were most optimistic about rates, I expect it'll trade at 1.2x book value again when people are once again optimistic in interest rates and the 10-year is 2.5% - 3.0%. Until then, book value is compounding nicely and you're getting it all at a discount that will close when rates sustainably rise.

I don't disagree, but I think other data points also support caution: 1) Small Caps peaked in March 2) Emerging markets peaked in February 3) Most commodities peaked in May - June and some are down significantly from those peaks (lumber and iron are prime examples) 4) Bitcoin peaked in May 5) Interest Rates peaked in March and have come down substantially I think we're seeing several high-beta/high risk portions of the market signaling things are becoming more "risk off". This could spread to more traditional asset classes like U.S. Large Cap. I think a declining margin level, despite record highs in the markets, could be that signal confirming the loss of confidence has spread.

IB paid out my odd-lots on Monday. I'm still waiting for my other non odd-lots at Schwab to settle.

Hard to say exactly - depends on volatility and etc since these are options. Also, the benchmark rate is the 20-year and not the 10-year. But my best guess is that it'd probably be in the ballpark of ~40-50% returns for a similar move in the 20-year treasury with no additional curve steepening between the 10- and 20-year rates.

Yes, but these people are also the ones that it provides the most benefits/cost savings to make it worthwhile to learn. Someone with 100,000 to invest in DeFi is going to get WAY more out of it than someone with only $1,000 as it stands today.

Sure, but there's nothing to say that it can't be paid up to the parent co, right? They're all fairly well capitalized and Allied is already paying dividends out to its minority holders to reduce their commitments. From Q2 earnings report:

Fingers crossed for $300 million share repurchase. Otherwise, I'm not terribly excited about the return of capital that was invested at 5.5% yields

From the data I've seen from a few different states, it seems to me that the vaccine is HIGHLY effective at keeping you out of the hospital. All of those people who thought covid was like the flu - well, it is...if you get the vaccine. 90+% of hospitalizations are among unvaccinated. 95+% of deaths are among the unvaccinated. Maybe the vaccine isn't 100% perfect in blocking transmission of the Delta variant, but who cares if it is the difference between potential hospitalization/death and simple cold/flu symptoms or remaining asymptomatic? Ultimately, what matters is how easily we can return to life as normal (very easily for the vast majority that are vaccinated) and not overwhelming our hospital systems with covid patients as we do it (also very simple for the vaccinated). Vaccines, thus far, have proven highly effective at both and the only real problem today is that many people are voluntarily choosing not to get it.

I was skeptical of ETH for the same reasons in 2018 - just replace zombie and rock jpegs w/ cryptokitties. Ultimately, I didn't see the value in ETH until January when I really started to delve into DeFi. P2P lending, P2P insurance protocols, P2P exchanges and liquidity protocols, and P2P asset management/hedge funds are all pretty amazing. As someone who has staked, lent, and exchanged on these platforms - I think its pretty cool, but readily admit it's not ready for primetime yet. Scalability needs to increase and fees need to decrease for it to be competitive for the masses. Otherwise, it only makes sense as a playground for the affluent. If they manage to get fees and scalability down, I could see DeFi taking a substantial chunk of financial activity. The majority of the population will still choose to interface with traditional institutions, but I think DeFi could easily take 1/4 to 1/3 or financial activity relatively quickly by reducing friction and fees for those willing to deal with a small learning curve and self custody.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/jonathanponciano/2021/08/12/hacker-finally-returns-nearly-all-600-million-stolen-in-ethereum-other-tokens-after-major-crypto-heist/#:~:text=In an unusual twist for,pledged to track the hacker's Crazy to see this play out in real time. He's not returning this because he did it for "fun" - he's returning it because he realized he'd never be able to spend the $600 million, which is basically about as useful as not having the $600 million to begin with...and the latter probably comes with lighter sentencing. As I've been saying all along, the transparency of the blockchain makes its use for criminal endeavors a stupid proposition once you eliminate the anonymity. Installing some regulation and KYC requirements at on-ramps/off-ramps ends that anonymity. If you can't get the illicit money off-chain, and can't spend it on-chain with everyone blacklisting your wallet, what can you do with it? Who would have thought that a decentralized network with no policing authority would actually be better able to recover funds than our current financial system? Anybody remember what happened to Citigroup when they accidently sent money to Revlon creditors? They didn't get it back. https://www.wsj.com/articles/judge-lets-revlon-lenders-keep-citis-botched-500-million-payment-11613490508

Hard to see what ETH's value will be if the vast majority of applications it supports are expected to go to 0, no? I do envision the vast majority of shitcoins going to zero, but I don't think it has to be a major crash. As a matter of fact, the vast majority of shitcoins make up only a nominal % of the entire crypto market cap. Bitcoin alone is nearly 45%. Bitcoin and ETH make up 65%. You add in the next ~20 "blue chip" alt coins and you're looking at probably 90+%of the crypto market cap. Seems to me that most of these shitcoins could disappear and not impact ETH or BTC much as the "blue chips" have already run away with the market.

Not to mention the wallet the proceeds went to were immediately red-flagged. Maybe could have tried to get them off-chain using some unregulated broker in some country that doesn't care about rule of law, but no legitimate vendor/off-ramp would accept any coins coming from that/those wallet(s). Especially as regulation and policing catches up, there will be no way in the future for these dudes to get money off-chain or to spend at legitimate businesses. Sure - they can still intereact with dApps, accrue interest, make trades, etc. But they will never be able to access the money for physical goods so what is the ultimate point?

I'm trending this way myself. I still think there's a lot to like about DeFi if fees/congestion get under control, but I view the tokens in that arena as more akin to venture capital. Bitcoin is something different in its entirety. I still believe this will be like internet stocks - 99% of them will be 0s, but the few that aren't will mint millionaires.

...and broad markets are up ~50% over the same period of time. So are we still "cheap"...or was that 50% jump the jump that takes the cheapness out of it?

Not a bad return on the shares I bought solely to tender. Will be happy if I can use the proceeds to buy them back at the current price of ~$14.