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handycap5

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Everything posted by handycap5

  1. I read it and liked the book. But I also think Peter's podcast style (relaxed, verbose, prone to digressions) made the book hard to follow in its totality. Has anyone found a good succinct summary of the book and the "what to do's" from it? Frankly, I would have liked the "self-help cliff notes" as an appendix.
  2. Found that Bloomberg has a function called "redline" when you access an SEC filing under the function "CF." And Bamsec does a job if you click on "compare" when reviewing a filing. Both are pretty functional. Question answered. Problem solved.
  3. In 2014, Todd Combs brought up the usefulness of "delta reports," which I believe are simply line-item comparisons of SEC filings. http://www.cnbc.com/id/101461797 In 2022, Todd Combs further emphasized the usefulness of these reports. https://investmentmanagementinsights.substack.com/p/graham-and-dodd-annual-breakfast So my question for the board is, what is the 1) simplest and 2) easiest way to access such comparisons of SEC filings. Is Bloomberg the best option and how does one do this? I have heard that Bamsec may also be a useful tool. I would like to avoid labor-intensive or complicated methods, such as using third-party software to compare downloaded files, such as doing a comparison in Word or using BeyondCompare from Scooter Software. Would someone who does this regularly provide advice? Thanks so much. Handy.
  4. I am not familiar with NEAM and their relationship to Berkshire. It appears that it is 75% owned by General Re. Are the funds they manage similarly invested for Berkshire? Could you provide any more infor or direct me to where I could learn more? Thank you.
  5. Chris Bloomstran on a recent interview put the normalized earnings power at $40 billion. Any idea of where he gets that figure?
  6. Shane Parrish did a very interesting interview with Atul which I recommend. Also, since you mentioned the Hippocratic Oath, I can't help but think of Milton Friedman's criticism of the same (search for Oath here: http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1684832/posts). I suspect the greater opportunity and greater challenge will be changing human behavior and organizations, not mining data. But maybe the latter can aid the former.
  7. They have had some marketing setbacks. https://www.cnbc.com/2016/08/15/hedge-funder-in-hot-water-sahm-adrangi-arrested-for-dui-cocaine-possession-in-hamptons.html
  8. I would second the request for posting (for posterity). Thanks a lot.
  9. Could someone familiar with the St. Louis Fed website post a link to the specific report? Would be appreciated...
  10. Highly recommend this book. One tidbit I found fascinating. When Buffett built his huge American Express position, the holders of the stock at that time did not have limited liability AND he didn't tell his partnership investors he bought it for them until year-end. Incredible self-confidence. Maybe in the grey in terms of investor communication (many of his investors at that time were not "sophisticated."), but of course it worked out.
  11. I have an problem - just in time for earnings season! I keep a list of stocks I own in Google Finance, which on their website had past and future events for the US-listed companies. I could then "subscribe" to these events on a continual basis by adding the link to the events of my portfolio to Google Calendar. Unfortunately, Google looks like they have deprecated this feature, as the "detail pages" of my stocks no longer have upcoming events. This was the primary utility for me of using Google Calendar vs my other options, such as Outlook - so I am not happy Larry. Curses! Does anyone know of a way to easily import upcoming earnings calls, etc. into Google Calendar or Outlook?
  12. I find it interesting that his tax cab driver example being antifragile is looking more dubious. Not critical of him or the analogy, just amazed how fast the world changes...
  13. If anyone finds a transcript of the interview, would you please share it with the group? thanks, handy.
  14. I recommend going to trump's website and reading the proposed policies. It is inherently a political document and not a true policy document (i.e. not a lot of math). But I was surprised how: 1) it largely conformed to standard republican pro-growth policies, and 2) it will be very stimulative in the coming years.
  15. this is the best chart I have found on marginal tax rate for investors and those with ordinary income: https://www.jcfny.org/effective-top-marginal-income-tax-rates/ for investors, the best thinking I have found are 2 research reports which go under the name: "is your alpha big enough to cover its taxes?" the newer report also has "revisited" in the title. I recommend them to all taxable investors...
  16. the genghis khan podcast series by hardcore history may be more accessible for those who prefer to listen rather than read...
  17. Intelligent Investor is pretty different. Think more Security Analysis, though 1/10th as long. This is more like a You to Could Be a Stock Market Genius, folksy in style with cases. Opportunity cost depends on what you want to get out of it. This is not philosophising on investing, its examples of one successful investor's thinking on specific decisions.
  18. Ed Wachenheim is probably the best value investor you have never heard of. He has generated returns over 25 years that are among the best of which I am aware. He has a new book that is primarily case studies of specific investments (railroads, financials, homebuilders, industrials), not much broad brush stroke investing philosophy. Think Margin of Safety or Common Stocks and Uncommon Profits, not Making of an American Capitalist. Nitty gritty (and numerical) thinking on specific investments is not for everyone - but for practitioners in this game - I think this is a highly useful read. And the book is wonderfully concise. I recommend it to you. http://www.amazon.com/Common-Stocks-Sense-Strategies-Particularly/dp/1119259606
  19. i just calculated the total return from 12.31.29 to 12.31.54 and Bloomberg tells me it is 2.0% annualized. So pretty bad for a while....
  20. my impression of the wholly-owned businesses (with several notable exceptions) is that they are generally average businesses run by above average managers, sometimes founders. over time, the founders or above average managers have to be replaced, and these replacements will tend to be average in my opinion. at the meeting several years ago, i was amazed how old the "scrolling heads" were on the "thank you" video. most owners i know of BRK have it as a "put away" stock - this ongoing change is glacial and hard to quantify, but would be among the factors i would consider.
  21. frommi, can you walk us through your math for the 15%? when i play with numbers, i get only a 75 bps opportunity cost hurdle to get similar results AT (assuming a 10 year hold on the passive index vs. a typical 3 yr hold for the "trade" approach. a few notes: - there is a good research paper called "is your alpha big enough to cover its taxes? revisted" and the original under same name, which one should read on this subject. - the big lift from DTL comes many years in the future, not in the first few years. as an example, my "opportunity cost" goes from 75 bps to 290 bps pa once index hold goes from 10 to 50 years. but a lot can change in 50 years. so the decision is (for US payors): 1) realize ST gains (answer is NO!) and 2) hold forever or not. First one is easy. Second is less straightforward. (as a digression, the numbers make it clear that some holdings like KO in BRK have exceedingly low opportunity costs - if you think you can hold them for 50+ years) - don't know ETFs. for US tax payors, the index mutual funds tax treatment is weird. last time i looked, vanguard's S&P500 mutual fund had an NOL! something with the way they redeem their investors with appreciated stock but realize taxable losses and redeem with cash. so index funds are even more efficient than i originally guessed.
  22. highly recommend listening to the hamilton broadway score after reading the book (available for free on YouTube). Very clever!
  23. http://seekingalpha.com/article/3496576-natural-gas-the-20-bcf-per-day-tsunami-has-arrived-10-years-earlier-than-some-expected
  24. agree with the comment that marcellus is the primary factor. looking at eqt, range, cabot, antero, consol and southwestern production forecasts for 2015, they average 24% increase. consol expects further 30% increase in 2016. this is following the period of 2010-2014, when the average of the group achieved was 28%, 40%, 45%, and 48% for 2014, 2013, 2012, 2011. And production universally exceeded initial guidance. yadayada, you say marcellus is going to stop growing. why do you believe that?
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