PlanMaestro

Gio, I should know better about a lot of things. But seriously, if we were talking about Fairfax and I didn't give importance to its Balance Sheet would you take me seriously? Disregard for the Balance of Payments is just as much of a serious issue as diminishing the importance of a Balance Sheet. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Balance_of_payments These are the net investment numbers and I'll leave it at that, most of this is a waste of time anyway. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Net_international_investment_position

Gio, that phrase should tell you instantly that there is something wrong in the argument. For every debtor there is a creditor … and we still have only one world. ;) Hero.

TX, I don't like them as much as the other guys … but they did what they say they would do and that counts. One of my worries at first was that their passive-aggressive attitude to Paulson's pressure wasn't the right one when trying to pull a comeback. Either you knew what was right or you didn't. You either fought Paulson or embraced him. McGee's middle-of-the-road reaction showed his large institution background and that wasn't even in insurance but in banking. When there are many other tough decisions coming, that bureaucratic mentality and lack of knowledge can get you in trouble. However, the war efforts are mostly complete and the stock and its warrants are still cheap. McGee and his team did what they say they would do at fast speed. They deserve praise.

Man, the rational thing should be to add but then I would have to sell something.

And more from Berkshire … Buffett Adds $1.75 Billion in Hartford Annuity Deal http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-06-27/hartford-to-sell-u-k-variable-annuity-business-to-berkshire-1-.html

Joe Nocera. http://mobile.nytimes.com/2013/06/27/opinion/nocera-the-end-of-fannie-and-freddie.html

Batista is trying to sell all or part of his 27 percent stake in MMX Mineração e Metálicos SA, his 62 percent stake in CCX Carvão da Colombia SA and his AUX gold mining company, the source said. http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/06/25/brazil-batista-mmx-idUSL2N0F11NE20130625

The Onion> http://www.theonion.com/video/markets-in-turmoil-as-price-of-money-skyrockets-to,32940/

1. Depreciation > Capex 2. Real went from $2 to $2.3

Bankruptcy Laws http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/ce161be6-da96-11e2-8062-00144feab7de.html#axzz2X5DUWzid Stuck in the mud http://www.economist.com/news/americas/21579048-feeble-growth-has-forced-change-course-governments-room-manoeuvre-more

Pmjar interviews Howard Marks: Concentration vs Diversification. "Concentration is better if you have superior insight, and diversification is better if you have limited insight." http://www.pmjar.com/?p=1554

Brazil protesters signal end of actions http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/1bfcbc10-da93-11e2-a237-00144feab7de.html#axzz2WtgZlryf http://blogs.ft.com/beyond-brics/2013/06/19/brazils-unrest-should-investors-worry/#axzz2Wnc1nsL7 http://blogs.ft.com/beyond-brics/2013/06/18/brazil-protests-dilma-speaks/#axzz2Wnc1nsL7 http://blogs.ft.com/beyond-brics/2013/06/22/brazil-protests-blame-tombini/#axzz2Wnc1nsL7

http://farm4.staticflickr.com/3821/9100654207_5c438e2950.jpg http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2013/06/21/heres-how-fast-fannie-and-freddie-are-paying-pack-the-treasury/ http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2013/06/20/its-been-five-years-since-we-took-over-fannie-and-freddie-heres-what-to-do-next/

Hi Txixo, I don't have an opinion on the Japanese stock market. Top-down metrics can be misleading (net cash, amortization, hidden assets, …) I much rather invest bottom-up and that takes time. For the moment I have prioritized other things. Oddballstocks might be your man (by the way, good post Oddballstocks.) Doesn't have to be that high. Shinzo Abe's talk of 5% inflation should be way more than enough. Even the 2% target can be a good start. They only need for NominalGDPGrowth > EffectiveRate … goal that the European periphery is not achieving because printing and spending has been taken out of their control. The advantages of having your own currency. Actually it shouldn't, but I prefer to show more restrain than Bass in the fool's game of macro predictions. For a start there is room for error from the Japanese authorities. It's no secret that central banks do make unforced errors sometimes. And second, despite many experiences of inflationary deleveraging there are not many at these high levels of fiscal debt to GDP. The few I know are France after WWI and the UK after WWII, both successful. But those are just reservations, not the kind of stuff that would prompt anyone to say something like "The Next 18 Months Will Redefine Economic Orthodoxy" like Kyle Bass said. And it would not be the first time he has wrong but never in doubt.

http://www.investorschronicle.co.uk/2013/06/20/shares/news-and-analysis/capital-shortfalls-eclipse-bank-reprivatisation-talk-UfCW11ZqdXyKT95WTnOgZJ/article.html

And that's precisely why I don't trust him. Never mind how suspect the thesis, he never shows any restrain if there are asymmetries involved. Remember how he gamed the GSE's preferreds and the total conviction?

Don't confuse "Japan" with "Japanese Government". Japan is a net LENDER to the world, and has run a current account superavit for decades.

CDS buying, trend following, and inventing phrases like "Keynesian endgame" doesn't a macro expert make. Soros, Dalio, I give. Disclosure: I own HIG warrants that used to be a Japanese stock.

Read again what he is saying. VaR and under-capitalization … not inflation or political feasibility. And first he was speechless. I guess nobody told him about the printing press and he thinks the Bank of Japan is just another hedge fund. Kyle Bass is the reason why the term macro tourist had to be invented. The Widowmaker http://www.readability.com/articles/ztfnbpep

"Changing Banking for Good" – Parliamentary Commission on Banking Standards http://www.parliament.uk/business/committees/committees-a-z/joint-select/professional-standards-in-the-banking-industry/news/changing-banking-for-good-report/

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-06-10/fannie-freddie-shareholder-suit-challenges-u-s-takeover.html

Paywall. Yes. Yes. Success. http://www.cornerofberkshireandfairfax.ca/forum/general-discussion/newspapers-aren't-dead-their-stocks-beat-the-sp-500-in-2012!/msg119115/#msg119115

Taxonomy of macro bloggers. http://ftalphaville.ft.com/2013/06/13/1533782/a-blogospheric-taxonomy-of-the-fiscalist-vs-monetarist-debate/

In new suit, Fannie, Freddie shareholders channel Hank Greenberg. http://newsandinsight.thomsonreuters.com/Legal/News/ViewNews.aspx?id=80001&terms=@ReutersTopicCodes+CONTAINS+%27ANV%27

http://mobile.nytimes.com/blogs/dealbook/2013/06/12/reform-efforts-in-washington-reflect-few-lessons-of-housing-crisis/