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PlanMaestro

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Everything posted by PlanMaestro

  1. Hurray! http://finance.yahoo.com/news/hartford-reports-strong-1q-earnings-150002441.html
  2. http://www.crossingwallstreet.com/archives/2010/10/a-model-to-explain-the-price-of-gold.html
  3. Come on, Presto greatest album ever :P. Now being serious: good video choice value-is-what-you-get. It shows their strengths and none of their weaknesses (vocals and lyrics.)
  4. Basically, gold pays no dividends or interest. It is thus expensive to hold in your portfolio when REAL interest rates are high, and cheap to hold it in your portfolio when REAL interest rates are low. When REAL interest rates are high, you have to be pretty confident that gold is going to rise in price in order to hold it in your portfolio.– DeLong So the late 70s were a time of high rates but very high inflation expectations, so that REAL rates were arguably zero or negative, just as they are today. And this also suggests that many people misread that 70s experience; because high gold prices then were associated with high inflation, gold has come to be taken as an inflation indicator, whereas it’s actually a low REAL rates indicator. Last time those low real rates had a lot to do with inflation, but this time they’re taking place in a deflationary or at least disinflationary environment. – Krugman In that view, Gold might make a little sense, but no more than that, when central banks look foolish in the face of high unemployment or inflationary episodes. When monetary and fiscal policy is going wrong to solve the main issue (unemployment today, inflation in the 70s). So one hypothesis is that some may be thinking that central banks and governments across the developed world are finally looking less foolish. And if that's the case, and consider that it might just be only an attack of Paulson's fund (RR: or maybe not http://goo.gl/nStzh) or this http://goo.gl/hWXzv, it plays against Prem's hedges.
  5. Hurray! http://www.businesswire.com/news/topix/20130411005650/en http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-04-11/hartford-takes-600-million-charge-to-hedge-japan-annuity-risk.html?cmpid=yhoo
  6. Hey, maybe it's "Another Indication The Bull Market is Coming to an End!"
  7. Anyone for talking stocks over coffee, beer or something stronger? I'll be with Mrs. in New York March 30-31 and Boston April 2-3. Plan. variantperceptions@gmail.com
  8. Suntrust http://www.cornerofberkshireandfairfax.ca/forum/general-discussion/suntrust-tarp-warrants/msg98021/#msg98021 M&T http://www.cornerofberkshireandfairfax.ca/forum/investment-ideas/mtb-mt-bank/msg95174/#msg95174 ZION http://www.cornerofberkshireandfairfax.ca/forum/investment-ideas/zions-bancorp/msg93862/#msg93862 GM http://www.cornerofberkshireandfairfax.ca/forum/investment-ideas/general-motors-gm/msg103240/#msg103240 HIG http://www.cornerofberkshireandfairfax.ca/forum/general-discussion/hig-warrants/msg26162/#msg26162
  9. Here is the data for GM http://www.cornerofberkshireandfairfax.ca/forum/investment-ideas/general-motors-gm/msg103240/#msg103240 I remember posting also the data for the MTB, ZION, STI warrants in their respective threads.
  10. Indeed. Needs some sort of disclaimer.
  11. Bo Xilai's 170 mistresses. http://www.wantchinatimes.com/news-subclass-cnt.aspx?cid=1101&MainCatID=11&id=20130315000010
  12. There is a power law, the median is much lower than the mean. The 6 ft man that drowns in the pond that is 5 ft deep on average. Source: http://blog.governmentwedeserve.org/2013/03/15/lost-generations-wealth-building-among-the-young/ Another source telling similar story and numbers: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wealth_in_the_United_States#Distribution_of_wealth
  13. Yes sir, though this is being a problem on both consumer dimensions. http://farm9.staticflickr.com/8232/8564010564_5f683f74c3.jpg
  14. The beginnings. Keynes’s Investment Activities while in the Treasury during World War I. http://www.hetsa.org.au/hetsa2011/conference_papers/hetsa%202011%20-%20paperpdf%20-%20kent%20-%20Keyness%20Investment%20Activities%20WWI.pdf Keynes’s own financial records are the sources of the data for this paper. In January 1903 Keynes started keeping an account book in which he kept both a cash account and a record of the status of his bank account. In the cash account, he used double entry bookkeeping, recording the sources of cash on the left side of the account book and the uses of cash on right side. It appears that he recorded every single source and every single use. Every few pages he updated the status of his bank account. Again using double entry booking he recorded the sources of payments into his bank account on the left side and his expenditures out of his bank account on the right side. He stopped keeping the last of these records in 1916. He kept records of his holdings of individual stocks. In a ledger, in which he kept records for individual stocks, he listed on the right page the number of shares bought or sold of a stock, the purchase or sale price, and the total value, and on the left page the dividends received. In the Keynes Papers there also are what appears to be his bank books from Barclay and Company; they are not in his handwriting. These bank books have on the left side a listing of the payments he made and on the right side a record of deposits into his account. The bank books start in October 1903 and continue through the period of his service in the Treasury in World War I and beyond. … It appears though that Keynes was a very ethical person. Mini states, “A reading of all Keynes’s works – books, pamphlets, essays, letters and memos – shows his appreciation of standards other than the economic: ethical standards, standards of justice, of health, of duty are also important” (Mini 1996, p. 109). During his life there are times when, in his financial dealings, Keynes behaved ethically, not taking advantage of opportunities that could have been profitable.
  15. Almost a Millionaire: A Stock Market Tale http://live.wsj.com/video/almost-a-millionaire-a-stock-market-tale/09038D19-2BCD-4702-9DD9-6F907F66F2A0.html?mod=WSJ_article_outbrain&obref=obnetwork#!09038D19-2BCD-4702-9DD9-6F907F66F2A0
  16. Jim the Realtor from San Diego. How things have changed in a couple of years.
  17. Good, must be the British accent. "For —though no one will believe it— economics is a technical and difficult subject." – Keynes.
  18. “You can lead a horse to water, but you can’t make him drink.” – Paul Samuelson.
  19. Volkswagen 20 years ago: how far they've come. http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/crusader-at-the-wheel-ignacio-lopez-sees-himself-as-a-saviour-of-the-western-car-industry-writes-john-eisenhammer-but-his-move-from-gm-to-vw-led-to-its-biggest-upheaval-for-years-1482815.html
  20. I don't know where this market is going but I am having trouble choosing among all the bargains out there. Even if you restrict me to large caps. Well, here is another chart for those that think that inflation is just around the corner and rates are about to spike. Velocity is still crashing … sorry Milton, it's not that stable. http://farm9.staticflickr.com/8093/8543150720_2722bbbc35.jpg
  21. http://farm9.staticflickr.com/8388/8541446485_39652a1ba5.jpg
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