PlanMaestro

The Professor, the Bikini Model and the Suitcase Full of Trouble. http://www.nytimes.com/2013/03/10/magazine/the-professor-the-bikini-model-and-the-suitcase-full-of-trouble.html

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Talk stays cheap for Vodafone and Verizon http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/2131d3ba-8682-11e2-ad73-00144feabdc0.html#axzz2MzskH3GK The Verizon management has made no secret of its desire to buy a business that generated an $8.5bn dividend last year. Fran Shammo, Verizon chief financial officer, again told a conference this week that “there was nothing new to report on the Vodafone venture”, repeating that “Verizon has always been interested in owning all of the US wireless business.” Vittorio Colao, Vodafone chief executive, has also been consistent in his message about the stake in Verizon Wireless, describing himself as the custodian of an asset that sits outside core operations. The sale of the 45 per cent stake could raise as much as $115bn for Vodafone. In Barcelona last week, Mr Colao again said that he kept “an open mind” to a situation that is reviewed at length in a board meeting twice a year. As such, in theory, there is a willing buyer and a potentially willing seller. The conditions have also improved for a deal – certainly much better than during the fractious relationship that existed between the two companies’ previous managements that saw the Verizon Wireless dividend frozen for many years.

And 1y and 2y options are not very patient either. The non-recourse is nice, but if you cannot see how this can go wrong you are not being imaginative enough. I know that you are not just about leverage. Maybe those calls were cheap for specific reasons (crowded short) or prices were bowed to have a jump (like in March 2009), but that's not the technical discussion that this thread is having. I'm glad for your success, and it looks like you are mature guy that on several posts has showed that he understands than there is a difference between building wealth and keeping it. So in that spirit I'm sure you can appreciate these examples: (1) General Growth GGP: I know several people that stroke big on this one, and others that envied those that stroke big. … only to lose most of it investing in Abitibi, Tronox, Chemtura, and other "sure thing" bankruptcy bets where they went big. (2) Chinese Stocks CCME: I know several smart guys that made lots of money on those Chinese Stocks in 2009, quantitative guys that did not read 10Ks or did due diligence. Many of those, and several that followed Hank Greenberg, invested later even bigger in CCME (I even forgot the real name of the company). Many lost huge on that sure thing. I have to say I don't like returns discussions, but maybe that's just me. But I'm old enough to see how reasonable smart people do unreasonable unsmart things when a pot of gold is shown to them and suggested they can do it too. Envy and greed, man. Then there’s the chasing of the investment return rabbit. What if you had an investment that you were confident would return 12% per annum. A lot of you wouldn’t like that -especially if you’ve done better- but many would say, “I don’t care if someone else makes money faster.” The idea of caring that someone is making money faster is one of the deadly sins. Envy is a really stupid sin because it’s the only one you could never possibly have any fun at. There’s a lot of pain and no fun. Why would you want to get on that trolley?

"What happened to Rick?" And then Warren went a step further. He said that if you're even a slightly above-average investor who spends less than they earn, over a lifetime you cannot help but get rich if you are patient. And so the lesson. My question was, what happened to Rick? The lesson was, don't use leverage, right? And be patient. These are attributes he's talked about plenty, but I would say that it got seared in pretty solidly after hearing the format in which he put it.

There we go again. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/False_analogy From the Harvard Business Review 1996 (!): A Country is not a Business. http://www.pkarchive.org/trade/company.html In a society that respects business success, political leaders will inevitably -- and rightly -- seek the advice of business leaders on many issues, particularly those that involve money. All we can ask is that both the advisers and the advisees have a proper sense of what business success does and does not teach about economic policy. In 1930, as the world slid into depression, John Maynard Keynes called for a massive monetary expansion to alleviate the crisis and pleaded for a policy based on economic analysis rather than on the advice of bankers committed to the gold standard or manufacturers who wanted to raise prices by restricting output. "For -- though no one will believe it -- economics is a technical and difficult subject." Had his advice been followed, the worst ravages of the Depression might have been avoided. Keynes was right: Economics is a difficult and technical subject. It is no harder to be a good economist than it is to be a good business executive. (In fact, it is probably easier, because the competition is less intense.) However, economics and business are not the same subject, and mastery of one does not ensure comprehension, let alone mastery, of the other. A successful business leader is no more likely to be an expert on economics than on military strategy. The next time you hear business-people propounding their views about the economy, ask yourself, Have they taken the time to study this subject? Have they read what the experts write? If not, never mind how successful they have been in business. Ignore them, because they probably have no idea what they are talking about.

The Hartford launches cash tender offers for $800 million of senior debt. http://finance.yahoo.com/news/hartford-commences-debt-reduction-component-145100411.html … $hig

Vitaliy Katsenelson Vodafone Group is one of the largest global mobile phone companies in the world and yields more than 8 percent, counting annual recurring “special” dividends. It has an A-rated balance sheet, and it can pay off any annual debt maturity from its ample free cash flow. In addition, at some point Europe will come out of what seems to be a perpetual recession, and Vodafone’s earnings growth will accelerate. The company’s crown jewel — its 45 percent stake in Verizon Wireless — will be monetized. The Indian market, where Vodafone is a big player, will continue to improve, and the company will start earning a reasonable return on investment there. Last, our societal addiction to being able to access the Internet anywhere at any time on any device will kick into ever-higher gears, and data sales will accelerate Vodafone’s revenue growth.

"I've made my living in large part as a gambler"

Kevin Hassett and James Glassman go to the "Ignored Hacks" list. Dow 36,000 Is Attainable Again. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-03-07/dow-36-000-is-attainable-again.html

The decline in the number of young drivers (UK). http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/ca4d7b6e-777f-11e2-9ebc-00144feabdc0.html#axzz2MsBr8VAA http://farm9.staticflickr.com/8106/8537485264_b692556f1b.jpg

Morgan Stanley presentation. http://www.autonews.com/Assets/html/world_congress/pdf/pres_jonas.pdf

Wrongstradamus. http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2013/03/michael-boskin-wrongstradamus/ Boskin is a classic example of why you should never let anyone’s politics influence your investing. He is part of the reason why I quarantined money-losers like the WSJ OpEd pages.

Cooperman not talking about taxes. http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000152534

[amazonsearch]Inefficient Markets[/amazonsearch] The cracks of the efficient market hypothesis, from within the economics profession, from one of its top guys. A rigorous book to throw to brainwashed MBAs. Heavy on math but balanced with real world evidence. Just the closed-end funds chapter is worth the, it must be said, very expensive price for such a short book. – Noise Trading, a theory of dumb money and how it can survive. – The Limits of Arbitrage, or how the lack of perfect instruments and risk aversion is a detriment to closing the noise. – The Limits of Professional Arbitrage, and how redemptions make life even more difficult. – Positive Feedback, how noise traders can extend a trend longer than you think. And it doesn't even discuss financial crises. The shorter version: http://www.economics.harvard.edu/faculty/shleifer/files/noise_trader_approach_finance.pdf

Straw man.

Brazil's leftist president fights to win back business. http://news.yahoo.com/insight-brazils-leftist-president-fights-win-back-business-110348661--business.html

The forecasting business is not easy. To be clear, none of the people we identify here are idiots, and we don't want to give that impression. But this epic bull market run has certainly made a lot of people look and feel like idiots. http://www.businessinsider.com/dow-jones-idiot-maker-rally-2013-3?op=1

Why Don’t We Have Deflation? http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/03/05/why-dont-we-have-deflation/

The number of digital subscriptions to the FT has overtaken the number buying the print edition for the first time. http://www.guardian.co.uk/media/2013/feb/25/pearson-ft-sale-digital-subscriptions

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The Hartford Amends Third Quarter 2012 Financial Results http://finance.yahoo.com/news/hartford-amends-third-quarter-2012-210500904.html The Hartford today reported that it has filed an amended Form 10-Q with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to restate its results for the third quarter ended September 30, 2012. The amended filing corrects for an error in the company’s preliminary calculation of the gain or loss relating to the Individual Life business transaction under U.S. generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP). The company is now reporting a full year 2012 net loss of $38 million and shareholders’ equity of $22.4 billion at December 31, 2012, as compared with the previously reported 2012 net income of $350 million and shareholders’ equity of $22.8 billion. The company’s 2012 core earnings of $1.4 billion are unchanged. “We regret the error, but importantly the adjustments have no impact on our reported 2012 core earnings, statutory results or surplus, and announced capital management plan,” said The Hartford's Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer Liam E. McGee. “The Individual Life, Retirement Plans and Woodbury Financial Services transactions were attractive for The Hartford and completed on favorable financial terms. They generated an aggregate statutory capital benefit of $2.2 billion and this remains unchanged.”

The New York Times’s landmark metered paywall will be two years old next month, and it’s already successful beyond anyone’s expectations. The NYT’s newspaper industry rarity. http://www.cjr.org/the_audit/the_nyt_grows_in_2012.php The newsonomics of zero and The New York Times http://www.niemanlab.org/2013/02/the-newsonomics-of-zero-and-the-new-york-times/ The Kingdom and the Paywall. http://nymag.com/news/media/new-york-times-2011-8/ The NYT paywall is working. http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/2011/07/26/the-nyt-paywall-is-working/ On Porous Paywalls http://www.avc.com/a_vc/2011/08/on-porous-paywalls.html