Sweet

It really depends on other factors. If it tanks the economy it’s not inflationary.

you are so negative always.

Should be easy to answer then.

Yes seriously. Not sure what ‘their side of the bargain’ means… what bargain is being referred to? What agreements hasn’t Canada broken? What weren’t they willing to do if he had of just asked them?

America initiated the tariffs, fairly easy to apply ‘only makes ‘Canadians’ wonder if you ever really were an ally’. I don’t get the tariffs on Canada.

I think Ackman is wrong that there won’t be new willing shareholders. I don’t have a feel for what happens commons, I wouldn’t be surprised if they were wiped out, but I don’t think you can underestimate Ackman and his recent public support for Trump can do his cause no harm. I don’t think the preferred are safe either.

Nice article - thanks. I do think there are some differences, NVR managed to be capital light, but GM is not. GM is not getting a large return on invested capital. Do you own GM? What do you like about apart from the obvious - the obvious being low multiple and potential for continued buy backs?

Never thought of that. Doubt it, but I don’t know.

@cubsfan @dwy000 Both good posters. Both good insights. Don’t get banned please! Consider taking this discussion to DMs, Parsad said he’s just gonna lock threads… please.

I get the tariffs on China - why only 10% though. I also get the tariff on Mexico - leverage in immigration. I don’t get the tariff on Canada.

I’m thought Intel would rip, I know TSMC has a foundry but their gov have stated 2nm chips will not be made in US. So there must be another side of the story. Investors obviously expecting large retaliatory tariffs.

We’re fucked. That’s what’s wrong. We have went from relatively high trust societies to low trust societies.

Typical bureaucratic nonsense on the compass too. Here is a better start. Cut taxes and regulation.

I don't know about home builders. GM have sucked ass though since they were released from bankruptcy. I'm not over the exact details on why (if I am honest). I looked at GM maybe 8 years ago and it looked like good value then - thank god I passed on it. Trouble with GM is that it always sort of looks like good value, and just underperforms. Share buybacks may have changed that... but I can't tell.

It’s a good approach, but it is GM. They have a track record of being terrible, will be hard to shake off.

Why is a cheap LLM a problem? Seems to me there are far more bread and butter companies that will benefit from cheap AI than not. So semis get whacked… from a 10,000 ft view who cares? Isn’t it a good thing?

This is nuts:

It’s kind of funny how Bitcoin, the tool used to exchange money without a bank, is now being cheered because banks can take it. The community is eating its own thesis.

I hoping this is an opening flex, and there is more to come… because if this ends the war on ‘day one’ I’d be shocked.

Relevant to above:

Yeh I agree, but then don’t complain to me about people hurt by rising interest rates, because everyone has options. High rates hurt one type of people, low rates hurt another. The rate rises caused a buying opportunity in stocks, we ripped higher after it. Unable to get a mortgage - invest it and try again in 2-3 years. Same logic. Some companies are more than 2x from their low.

It makes sense when inflation is 10%. I think he should have taken his foot off the gas sooner on the hikes. Of course there were people hurt by the pace of the rise, but how many older savers got fucked over from 14 years of ZIRP, if you didn’t own assets you got left behind.

I don’t agree he caused SVB, he had to raise rates IMO. I think he was too slow with rates, and perhaps too high at the end, but SVB failed because they didn’t manage their bond portfolio well, and they had a customer base that pulled out their money quickly at the slightest whiff of a problem. Like you I do believe a large measure of inflation was supply chain, but easy money has to end in times of inflation. Near zero rates is not historically normal, or in my opinion good.

He had three major challenges and IMO he did a great job on two of them and a good job on one. Great: Covid-19. SVB fallout. Good: Inflation, though in hindsight should have raised earlier.

I take a different view, I actually think Powell has been a very very good Fed chairman.