Sweet

Idea: European defence industry stocks. Tectonic shift coming. A basket of European defence stocks may do well. Only one I really know much about is BAE systems. If anyone has a list please add them.

So there will actually be a summit in London tomorrow.

I agree John, but it is painfully slow. It was a car crash that could and should have been avoided.

Oh lol. I didn’t get it initially.

Yep. And today, what do we get from Europeans? ‘You are not alone’, and more ‘we stand with Ukraine’ bollox on Twitter. Where is the special summit? Europe could collect raise 1 trillion in aid for Ukraine by the end of next week. 1 trillion paid back over 30 years is nothing in the grand scheme of things. It’s crazy.

Not sure that’s a winning hand. Why does he need the minerals deal when he could just make all those concessions to Putin right now. He was told yesterday repeatedly he had no cards to play. I think that’s actually true. I don’t know where this winning hand stuff comes from.

That doesn’t make sense though. The US was on Ukraines side during the Biden era - it amounted to military aid but not a security guarantee. Now it’s not on Ukraine’s side. What is this ‘ambiguity’ - spell out what exactly what that could mean? You think Trump is going to drop a bomb on a Russian general? I don’t. The problem for Trump is he has already set out his limits publicly. He has been consistent in his messaging for Ukraine for years now. I’d love to be more wrong here, but as predicted he is soft on Putin and tough on Ukraine.

What is the value of that ambiguity for Ukraine? I don’t think Trump is as unpredictable as you think. It’s pretty clear that US support comes with strings attached. It’s also pretty clear Trump isn’t going to risk as he describes it ‘World War 3’. It’s verging on predictable actually.

He had a winning hand lol? What was it?

There is no value in the ambiguity of the mineral deals. The ‘ambiguity’ you speak is only serves as a way for you to avoid answering the question. What support was on offer? They could pay, by other means, for military aid. The minerals deal was a means to pay. This support was NOT a security guarantee. In fact, as previously posted, Ukraine supposedly had a security guarantee from the US already. But why would the Ukrainians sign that if they are going to be strong armed into peace anyway?

No. There were no security guarantees. YOU should know this. So back to you again. What support was on offer?

Wtf are you talking about James. What support was on offer from the US? Both sides agreed that there were no security guarantees made to Ukraine. Trump isn’t going to give weapons for free anymore, that’s abundantly clear, they can still be bought though. So what be specific, what exact support was on offer?

I don’t think he is apologising. He said he’s ‘sorry for this’ - the way the situation unfolded. He didn’t say he was sorry for anything he did - which was to state his own views. It’s also pretty clear with Trump and Vance he didn’t and was unlikely to get US support easily. In fact it’s pretty clear that the support the US previously provided was over. Vance also literally said he didn’t care what happened in Ukraine during the election campaign.

Yes, and I read it as probably a massive L for the US. The weird thing about Trump’s / MAGA world view is that they simultaneously wants to walk away from alliances and the burdens of global leadership, YET he expects the US to hold the same or more influence globally as before. That’s obviously not going to work. I get that the US want Europe to spend more of military and do more for Ukraine, but it’s also important to keep them firmly on your side. This isn’t post-war WW2 Europe wrecked by war. There will be no Suez style pressure that can force European powers to do as the US wants. They can and should be able to stand on their own two feet. And there is a new rival in China. If you are Japan, or Taiwan, or South Korea, or the Philippines - what’s your take on today’s events? Do you feel you have a reliable partner in the US? Putin and Xi must be pissing themselves laughing lol.

I mean Ukraine should just accept peace now, and then Europe should respect the agreement in the same way Russia has…

That’s like saying the troops at the front of the Nazi Blitzkrieg was only a small number of men - which would be true but it misses the point. There were a significant number of troops and armour on the road to Kyiv. Russia tried their own Blitzkrieg and failed. It wasn’t just there that they were pushed back on the outskirts of Kyiv, all across the front during the first 18 months the Russians were pushed back. Ukraine is going to have man-power issues but it’s not true that every Joe is at the front. Quite the opposite. Zelenskyy has deliberately tried to keep younger people away from the front line. Their military prefer to send older men instead with lots of experience in soldiering. Some at the front are younger, but for the most part the young are NOT at the front. I believe the average age is about 40.

Yes… it was. It doesn’t seem like an admission or damage control to me. Moreover it’s now the 34th, 35th, 36th and 37th ‘thank yous’

Sort of agree with some of what you are saying, but 0 gains? Really? The Russians were 12 miles from Kyiv. They are now about 500 miles from Kyiv.

https://edition.cnn.com/2025/02/28/politics/volodymyr-zelensky-thankful-us-fact-check/index.html CNN found 33 times that Zelenskyy has thanked America in a couple of hours. I repeat… ‘they were fine people’ ‘horse tranquilizer‘ CNN are finding this one easy! Yet JD Vance can’t remember a single instance? Vance actually made a fool of himself today.

Can’t believe I read something from the NYT and actually agree lol

Don’t be so sure. You can’t rely on a partner once every four years.

‘Propaganda’ was the shameful reply. Can’t believe Vance said that. When asked if he had been to Ukraine he fumbled. Thing is I like Vance, but not his views here.

Wild exchange in front of the press. Zelenskyy, rightly, couldn't sit there and listen to the bullshit. 'Not thankful' - bullshit. '$350 bn in aid' - bullshit. 'Propaganda tour' - bullshit, and really quite a shameful comment. For all the bullshit though, this is Europe's failing. Defence spending should have been higher in European countries many years ago. European defence was subsidised by American taxpayers all while Europeans looked down their nose at the Americans, ridiculing their culture, their lack of socialised health care... yada yada... on and on. What a woeful bunch of politicians we have had leading us. The party is over for Europe, I don't think Trump was an inevitably figure, but it was inevitable that the lack of defence spending would have consequences. The only correct response from Europe is a massive increase in defence spending and support for Ukraine now. Not next week. Now. Emergency summit tomorrow. 1 trillion debt raise for Ukraine defence... now. And, there is a hard truth for Zelenskyy too, he isn't going to push the Russians out. Negotiate he must, but he needs to be clever too. The loser in the long term is probably America. Congrats, you traded Europe, with 600 million people and a huge purchasing power and industrialised base for Russia. Yeh the Europeans looked down their nose, wrongly, but this Putin guy, he hates America to his very core.

Great information Charlie thanks. It’s very tempting but I feel like the next capex cycle is always around the corner with these companies and they trade deservedly at lower PEs. There was a five year period not too long ago that they were cashflow negative for example. But they seem to be developing a cannibalism mentality.

The government added two trillion of spending during covid and it never really reverted back to trend. So whatever has received extra since Covid can’t it be reduced back to the 2020 base plus inflation.