Sweet

Lol, yep. Braver than me. What kind of leverage are you running, and what checks do you have to ensure you never get into too much trouble? I don't use any leverage, and sometimes I wish I would.

Yeh, it’s a time for loose convictions on the macro side. We aren’t at stupid silly valuations for anything even after the sell off. I think the immediate bearish threat has receded and I’m guess those higher tariffs won’t come back. However, stocks were slipping before the tariff threat and the economic data looked to be souring so we could be in for a recession. But Nobody actually knows anything though. Macro stuff is just too hard.

Lol, yeh you may be too focused on your accounts you are wheeling and dealing in. That’s good, hope you are up.

Were you hedged? Is that why you are down today.

Are some people really victory lapping this based on they had a feeling this was near the bottom? Lol. Come on.

It is impulsive for sure and I could get smacked around the head. It’s never my intention to sit on large amounts of cash. I always want to be 100% invested, but this past 12-18 months I’ve sold a range of things and didn’t buy anything back. First slowly then a lot. In the past yes I’ve have sat on large cash balances and I’ve never enjoyed it but I enjoy watching those gains withering away even less. So at times I find myself with a lot of cash. I’m still trying to figure out what works for me for the moment. With rates a bit higher it has changed - I don’t mind running a 60-80% equity and 20-40% cash / bonds getting 4-5% interest. That 60-80% equity would be packed with high volatility stuff though. Edit - I’ve always seemed to do better when volatility is going crazy. No idea why btw, something about the way I’m made up.

Yep. On both counts lol. Gotta laugh, Trump, told everyone now would be a good time to buy before he paused the tariffs.

Kicking myself a little about earlier because China and then the EU implemented tariffs and the market was up slightly which I thought was flipping strange. I posted in the tariff thread that at some point these tariffs increases just don’t mean anything anymore because if trade is uneconomical at 100% it doesn’t matter a dam if it goes to 1,000%. Should have took a little nibble, but I’m been caught before with a rug pull doing that. Will just have to see if it works out over the days and weeks ahead.

No, just there now. I was out playing with kids, came in and saw the news and everything was ripping higher. So I just loaded up on everything that was knocked hard (NVR the exception). I’ve missed much of this initially relief rally but i’m betting it continues for a while yet. I’ll probably sell some of these on a quick flip because some of them like C and BAC are position I already have and I don’t want them to be too big. I wish I could say I bought them this morning, but I figured I’d wait for an announcement that was positive and then load up. Even if I don’t get a carry on bounce, I’ve picked up a range of decent names at prices much lower than 3ish months ago.

I was about 50% cash, it’s all gone. C, BAC, INTC, AMD, NVR edit - forgot biggest one of all, VGT

You are so negative always. It’s gonna hurt you in the long run.

At some point, not sure when that is, raising and raising makes no difference. It could be already, the products coming out of China might already be uneconomic, in which case a 1000% tariff would make no difference because the damage has already been done. If anyone has a feel for were that tipping point is please post it.

Get that all the time.

That's a statement of fact. Not a rewriting of history Buckeye. If I am wrong you will be able to show me Trump verbalising the policy as enacted, or it written down in a manifesto somewhere. Otherwise stop being lame. You can believe in an idea and then think the implementation has been awful - it's not one or another.

That's not what I said though. I could care less about their agenda. I am saying that Trump banging the table about tariffs during the election campaign (and before) does not mean that those who supported him, or even his tariff position, support or voted for this iteration of the tariffs.

You're acting like he campaigned on the current policy when he did not. The reaction, from those who have been supportive of Trump, should tell you that the way this has been implemented has come as quite a surprise. Arguing that this was foreseeable - which you appear to be doing - is nothing but hindsight bias.

Exactly. Tariffs are necessary sometimes. This Rand Paul world view of free trade ignores that are players at the table who are effective parasites. Benefiting from the free trade trade with other countries, but restricting free trade into their own country through current manipulation, tariffs, non-tariff barriers, government support, and outright banning of certain products. But the high tariffs against your friends and allies - that’s dumb - reciprocate sure.

lol

As pupil is saying you need to net these to get the balance of trade per sector. You can't just look at imports of say vehicles and then not look at exports too. If you repatriate some of these - assuming you even can because the company might not be American - then you have to assume that other countries / states, like the EU, China are going take similar measures. For example, US decides it wants to bring pharma production back to the US, EU might block / tariff pharma products from entering their market from the US. So those companies have to set up two production sites, one in the EU and the other in the US to have access to both markets. With the US running a trade deficit you would expect that they would be a net benefactor of reshoring. But the US fiscal deficit is higher than the trade deficit, if the fiscal deficit disappears would the US still have such a large trade deficit? I have no idea how this all these factors play off against each other.

I don’t think anyone who voted for Trump expected a tariff policy like this. Yes there is blame for them voting for it, but it’s not like they voted explicitly for this policy.

Oil got wrecked in 2014 and people are still waiting for many producers to return to their highs. You need to know that many of these oil companies, especially the smaller ones, are ran for the benefit of the founders and board. Shareholders are often just the idiots that provide the bid so the board can they raise capital to get themselves rich. Make sure you check the shares outstanding for everyone of your holders and make sure the boards interest aligns with shareholders. Some of these companies are pretty much ponzis.

if this is true it’s a silly assumption. China might cut a deal but they might not want to either. Xi looks like he will be Premiere as long a he wants, Trump isn’t around in 4 years - yes some assumptions of my own.

Oh well, imagine if you got 1% of your port in. Dam

I’m curious, what was your % port allocation?