gfp

The october repurchase activity can be estimated by using the 10/25 share counts, accounting for A to B conversions, and estimating the "missing" shares. It won't be spot on, because like you mention there are other factors that effect share count, but when there is a reduction in the number of outstanding shares we can safely assume that is from net share repurchases. All the other factors that effect share count would generally lead to small increases in share count. I have a slightly different number, but similar conclusion to you. Total B-equivalents of 4,476,692 repurchased for $928 million during the quarter, for an average price of $207.3. I'm not sure where you are seeing the October numbers. It seems you are drawing conclusions from the reported share-count at Oct 25? I think that's reasonable, but there could easily be other factors that affect share counts aside from repurchases, as there were this quarter as well. Buyback was a little underwhelming. The rest of the earnings are rather good though. So good report overall, IMO.

So the way I read it is that they were only active for 14 trading days during the quarter: August 7th - August 24th, from which you can estimate the cap price in their repurchase instructions. During those 14 trading days they repurchased approximately $927.566 million worth of stock, for an average of about $66.25 million worth per trading day. No further repurchase activity during the quarter. Then, subsequent to quarter end, up until October 25th, they were back in the market, repurchasing approximately $181 million worth of stock in 8 trading days, for an average of about $22.625 million worth of stock per day. This is consistent with the estimated cap price that can be divined by the August repurchase activity. They did not repurchase anything the first day the were allowed to, August 6th, probably because they had a one day delay starting trading on the 10b5-1 plan I assume they are using.

Man, I used to be interested in this company but they are not looking good. They will lose Sam's when that comes up for renewal and I would not be surprised if Amazon drops them at the first opportunity. SYF is basically the antithesis of 'relentlessly focused on pleasing the customer.'

"one that got away" - Bloomberg article on Berkshire's interest in acquiring WPP Group in 2012 https://www.bloombergquint.com/business/buffett-sorrell-chatted-about-potential-wpp-deal-six-years-ago

Results out - https://s1.q4cdn.com/579586326/files/doc_financials/2018/Q3/FFH-2018-Q3-Press-Release-(Final).pdf

Boilermaker, I confess that I stole your ideas again. Sold BRK 197.5 November 2nd Puts at 1.70 yesterday and Sold RHT November 2nd 170 puts at 2.10 right after you mentioned them... Still a couple days to go Looking forward to Saints-Rams!!! THANKS! As long as you're picking up pennies in front of the steam roller, why not just sell $190 strike puts against RHT (2020 expiration)? Surely the deal won't fall apart. Seems like less work. Yes if you think the deal goes through and does so in a reasonable time frame. The reason I like options is that I set the date when the play is over. And if I get put to then I can decide whether to hold to conclusion of the acquisition, or write covered calls.

It was Apple's marketing slide from the actual event... Context is key of course - they were discussing how far the iPad has come since the original iPad, 8.5 years ago

Everything works for me on Safari, but at some point in the middle of the night last night (US) it seemed like the simple machines database was offline. Probably unrelated. I have a 14 week old puppy so I'm up a lot at like 2am lately...

WSJ running an article this morning on Todd's recent investments in early stage Financial Technology firms globally https://www.wsj.com/articles/warren-buffetts-firm-invests-millions-in-fintech-1540807200?mod=hp_lead_pos5 For reference, StoneCo Ltd trades on the nasdaq under the ticker STNE

This article is an update on the ballot item in Nevada to open up NV Energy's regulated monopoly to more choice. Obviously NV Energy would still own the distribution infrastructure. BHE has been spending a lot of money on lobbying / advertising. Some large individual casinos had already won the right to pay a termination fee and buy their power from an independent producer. https://www.politico.com/story/2018/10/27/adelson-buffett-nevada-890190

You are correct. You never become a partner / member if you do not end up owning the units directly. So no K-1 unless you exercise, get put-to, etc..

It’s too bad they can’t safely electrify something in the rail. Carrying many tons of batteries around is less than ideal and probably not close to cost effective. More likely that for now these battery locomotives are used to reposition cars locally to cut down on emissions in a local area. Ultimately... the trains are already electric so maybe some type of fuel cell or clever safe electrified rail will work out. I don’t see them adding wires above like i’ve seen in Asia.

BRK.B calls, Spectrum Brands

I'm adding today as well. Something like 500 Billion at today's price

One of the standard answers is the paycheck processors, like ADP and Paychex. They have a float that earns short term deposit rates - usually called something like "interest on funds held for clients." Really any float based business like Banking or Berkshire can benefit, but not all of them will. I would rather own a smart capital allocator like berkshire than a portfolio of life insurance companies if I was trying to position for higher rates. The Life insurance companies own a bunch of bonds. berkshire does not.

If you don't normalize interest rates when the economy is going gangbusters, you don't have any room to ease when the cycle turns. I won't get into the debate on whether we should even be trying to soften the extremes of the cycle - but the rate environment many people got used to was not 'normal.'

Not sure where to link this, but Warren did an event sponsored by newly acquired MLMIC, New York's largest medical malpractice insurer - where he had a public conversation with Dr. James Reed, CEO of St. Peter's Health Partners. (if you've reached your 'free limit' for reading the article, open the link in private or incognito mode to read) https://www.bizjournals.com/albany/news/2018/10/18/warren-buffett-health-care-st-peters-reed.html

I suppose you could try creating an ask of your own that would facilitate the bid you want to place. Otherwise, beyond using a different broker the solution is probably all too familiar when it comes to illiquid microcap accumulation: wait patiently.

https://in.reuters.com/article/stone-ipo-berkshire-hathaway/update-1-brazilian-card-processor-hopes-to-lure-buffett-with-11-bln-nasdaq-ipo-idINL2N1WW0YZ General news / Berkshire / 3G update - an article on the company from SA. Obviously more likely a Ted or Todd deal but who knows with the Brazilians involved: https://seekingalpha.com/article/4212362-buffetts-stock-pick-stoneco-ipo-shows-74-percent-y-y-revenue-growth

Nope, watched it on a television set up outdoors with a group of friends. We have guests in town who were at the dome though. (I think we might be the only two people on this message board that care about this LOL) Back to value investments!

Thanks Mike, Congratulations Drew! It was like they weren't even trying to defend that pass to just get the record breaking ceremony over with. Drew can now hopefully add to that record for a few more years and it may stand for an awfully long time. Geaux Saints!

There are several factors in addition to repurchase activity that could be pushing BRK up relative to the market. One is the rise in interest rates and Berkshire’s unique positioning relative to interest rates (float based businesses become more valuable along with money, but most insurance companies hold large bond portfolios that get marked lower - Berkshire’s traditional long bond portfolio is comically small relative to total assets). Another is simple technical analysis reasons, which also relates to violated option strikes, where Brk held above its recent breakout. Might sound like Mumbo Jumbo, but covered calls are a factor at Brk, where everyone holds at a gain, most with large gains they are not eager to be called on and realize. But stock repurchases are undoubtably a factor as well

My understanding is that nothing has to be publicly disclosed in a filing when an issuer is using the plan for a repurchase. Other types of plans, for insider selling for instance, usually get mentioned in the form 4 - but the confidential details of the trading rules are usually not public. Sometimes you can divine them through other disclosures though - a cap price can sometimes be observed if trading prices are detailed in a form 4. So no, Berkshire doesn’t have to file anything but might mention it in a footnote later.

Correct. If they are doing it the way I am guessing they are doing it, there can be steady open market purchases throughout the usual blackout periods. You can get really specific with formulas and rules and changing price caps/floors - but I would bet they have a simple price cap, % of daily volume instruction. Just a guess of course.

My understanding is that they are limited by rule 10b-18 to buying no more than 25% of the daily volume. They are also not supposed to trade in the final 10 minutes before the close. I would be very surprised if Warren purchased anywhere close to 25% of the daily volume of the combined share classes. My impression is that he would feel that repurchase activity near the 25% level would influence the share price more than he desires. It is impossible to completely eliminate your influence on the share price (witness the generally rising stock, closure of A/B share premium/discount, etc). If I had to guess, I would guess that Berkshire established a 10b5-1 plan specifying a maximum price and a percentage of the trailing ADV to purchase. I would guess that they specified somewhere around 10-15% of the Average Daily Volume, not to exceed 25% on any given day unless a large transaction was privately negotiated outside the plan (which would not be considered to be protected by the safe harbor of the plan). They probably filed the 10b5-1 plan directly following their 10Q, allowing them to begin purchases under the plan immediately. Buffett would receive daily trade confirms but isn't supposed to have any other communication with the broker he chose to administer the plan. So he would know what was purchased each day and "we bought a little" is very difficult to quantify when you are talking about a half-trillion dollar market value enterprise... We'll find out soon enough with the next 10Q and we can try to reverse engineer the % of daily volume they specified...