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gfp

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Everything posted by gfp

  1. Correct, wiggles in KHC share price will not effect our carrying value unless they do another deal that involves BRK's ownership percentage changing. BRK had to mark up their carrying value for KHC in connection with the Kraft merger because for GAAP purposes when your ownership goes from 52% to 26% or whatever the net result was, they treat it as if you sold a proportional piece of your position at the merger price (not for tax purposes obviously). Wiggles in other stocks in the portfolio will now pass through the income statement, and always were reflected in carrying value (net of their deferred tax liability).
  2. You have the gist right on KHC. It is not consolidated technically, it is accounted for under the equity method. The effect is the same for your purposes though. Berkshire's share of the earnings are already included without the need to 'look-through.'
  3. +1 I came to that conclusion as well between 2009 and 11. After messing around with lesser names and ideas. Downside protection for the really long term is rare. My conclusion is that they simply don’t exist elsewhere. Not just that I cannot find them. The secret is to have lower expectations while taking the downside protection. You have a huge leg up on me in that you’re doing this as a student. Mine happened in my middle years and the messing around cost me. No big regrets, pleased that I learned that then, not now or later. Good luck to us. Students come in all ages. DooDiligence is in his mid 50's or something like that
  4. So the Gates Foundation owns about 58 million B shares today. Warren converts his A-shares to B-shares before he gives them away. Over time there will be fewer and fewer A shares, as designed. The Gates Foundation will continue to receive a shrinking number of shares, but very possibly not a shrinking dollar amount, annually, continuing a decade or so after Warren's death and they will at some point after his death receive the balance of his public bequest to them. I don't think Berkshire and the Gates foundation will do a block transaction even though I can't personally find an ethical problem with it. It is very possibly not what is best for the foundation, which has special permission to dispose of BRK.B shares much more slowly than they are technically required to by law. So their special dispensation allows them to hold $11 Billion and growing of BRK.B shares, which is probably a pretty great asset for a foundation like theirs. But never say never. Anyone with a material sized block of stock should phone Omaha if they want to sell to the mothership on the cheap
  5. One of the key points is that all of these re-powering deals (NextEra is doing a lot of them as well) are gaining eligibility to re-start the production tax credits with today's date. It's a substantial enough rebuild/replacement that it basically counts as a new wind farm after you're getting closer to the end of your original production tax credit period for the old equipment. Also, of course, the new equipment is much larger and generates more power on land you already have control of, infrastructure already built, etc.. - and because of the phase down of tax credits, 2018 is the year you will see the equipment ordered for almost all of the next several years of projects
  6. Eurobank US pink sheet shares traded down to .45-.46 this morning on higher than usual volume. Picked up shares at .455 and .46
  7. I'm sure Warren would love to have places to put money that would soak up the excess capital and force some long-held stock position sale decisions, but most of the time the question is - if I sell AXP or KO, then what? Sell them to do what with the capital? AXP and KO might sound like pieces of shit to some folks, but last time I checked they both consistently earned 20-30% return on equity, and the longer you are in a business the more that basic figure matters to your outcome. How much does this company earn on the actual capital tied up in running the thing, and how sustainable is that.
  8. Just to address the question of BRK’s Kraft Heinz cost basis, it is $9.8 Billion. Not 17. See annual report $4.25 Billion for original Heinz equity, $5.26 Billion for Kraft deal [this is $9.51 but has been reduced by cash dividends I assume] $8 Billion Heinz pref, paying $720 million per year for 3 years, $300 million redemption premium in 2016.
  9. Have you decided there is a 4% return here? Or is that based on some arithmetic? I don't own American Express stock, except I suppose indirectly through my Berkshire shares. My wife and I use a Chase Sapphire Reserve Visa as our primary card, and I am happy with them. But with a quick look I see a stock trading a few bucks shy of an all-time high, at $96.96 per share, which will earn about $7.10 per share in net eps this year. 13.6x earnings at an all time high with a bit of a brand and market position with high spending card users, an established share repurchase program. Doesn't seem egregious but I don't own it so what do I know? If I had a block with a huge deferred tax liability and my percent ownership of the company kept marching upward I don't think I would be stressing about 13x earnings at an all time high market price. Not if you are happy owning a company with 0 revenue growth and a 4% return. Not going to get rich owning stocks like AXP. Maybe you stay rich, maybe not. People view AXP as no risk and are valuing the equity like a bond. Well, owning perpetual bonds in a rising interest world is a great way to destroy purchasing power. As interest rates go up, that 4% return looks worse and worse and will be re-priced. If that's your idea of a good investment, then enjoy your returns. I'd rather earn 2% in a savings account than own AXP. It's the opposite of what I want in a stock: limited upside and big downside if the price falls or earnings falter. AXP has been complacent for years because it just kept cashing the checks each month. Now they have a luxury product that is losing appeal and facing increasing competition, at the same time that growth has stalled out for years. Where's the margin of safety? Just that the checks are rolling in each month? I seriously can't believe how many investors are happy with 4%! 4% is a horrible return!
  10. Does AXP have a "truly egregious valuation" ?
  11. Must be some kind of compound interest nonsense
  12. It was run thorough Fetcheimer Brothers. They may have just decided to shut it down.
  13. You made $21/ hour pretax as an attorney??! Yikes!
  14. WSJ is running a good article on NextEra Energy, in case people have missed it the last couple days - https://www.wsj.com/articles/how-a-florida-utility-became-the-global-king-of-green-power-1529331001
  15. Yeah, what Mike said.. But it really does beg the question - how much do you think this bag of cash is going to fall [in market price] if Warren dies tomorrow? The company starts buying their own equity in size something like 12% below the current market price. Retains all earnings, so every passing day there is more money in the bag. There are other things that keep me up at night, being long or synthetic long Berkshire stock at 192.50 isn't one of them.
  16. Sure seems like a long time to tie up that capital in exchange for less than 10% maximum return. I wouldn't be worried either that Berkshire will trade below 182 in a year and a half. But there is a chance that the shares are materially higher by then and I would rather participate on the long side of a great business where I can completely defer my gains tax indefinitely. Sometimes long dated calls on the long side are attractive, but I never sell long dated puts. When Berkshire did it, they weren't required to post collateral. You are.
  17. Yes and I wrote a couple of more puts, expiration tomorrow strike price $192.50 for $0.75 per share. Great minds think alike, but my sell order for two at .99 each never got filled.. (same contract)
  18. Back at the BRK.B trough... Looks like you might get your shares this month Boilermaker!
  19. You can also look at just the insider transactions by clicking the red link "Get insider transactions" for this 'issuer' or for this 'reporting owner' Under this reporting owner, for Berkshire, you get the recent PSX sale, the Liberty Sirius accumulation, PSX purchases, etc.. Under this issuer, you get the insider transactions for BRK stock, which are primarily charity related. But sometimes there is an interesting one like Charlie transferring a huge block of his Berkshire stock near the exact bottom of the financial crisis to his children in exchange for a promissory note. Charlie's no dummy https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1067983/000118143108063602/xslF345X03/rrd224408.xml
  20. Good discussion there. Berkshire did have to report the Wells share sales within 3 days. Berkshire issued a press release and briefed Becky Quick on it just before the filings hit so people wouldn't freak out - "Berkshire selling Wells Fargo!" which would be seen as a big negative, especially given the headlines surrounding Wells recently.. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/72971/000120919117026722/xslF345X03/doc4.xml
  21. The youtube ones should be more universal and easy to view (at least until CNBC notices that "LRT Capital Management" has ripped off their exclusive content...) Also the youtube ones seem to have been ripped from CNBC before they introduced the highlight reels.
  22. They work perfectly for me in the United States on a Mac using safari. They use HTML5 through a company called JW Player. If they don't load at all for you and you are not in the United States, it could have something to do with international permissions or lack thereof. Or you could be blocking HTML5 videos through an ad blocker, or have an old browser. Try it on your smartphone to see if that helps
  23. They also added 'highlight reels' for the meetings, which are really great, quick ways to go through the meetings when you don't have time to systematically watch hours of footage
  24. In thinking about Berkshire's continued buying of AAPL, it seems to me that Berkshire must have stopped buying. Berkshire would be required to report to the SEC if it crossed above ~245.7 million shares, which represented 5% as of the last 10Q. As Apple updates the share count to reflect repurchases, Berkshire will likely cross the 5% threshold and report an updated number for Berkshire ownership, but only following the publication of a new shares outstanding figure by Apple. Or I could be wrong and a 13d could be filed any day showing Berkshire hitting 5%...
  25. Just to clarify on this, Berkshire was not proposing to receive $2 more than other shareholders in their original option proposal. Their proposal was always going to result in Berkshire receiving the same consideration as other shareholders if a deal was consummated.
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