gfp

Good summary StubbleJumper. Also it is important to point out that in addition to the potentially very long wait, these CVRs will not be trade-able like some other CVRs have been in the past. So you are a 'stuck-holder' with whatever capital you allocate to this CVR.

The way it lines up before and after the ex-dividend date I really do think these large crossed trades (without moving the price much) are just related to the behind the scenes positioning/hedging from the total return swaps. They aren't just sells - they is obviously a purchaser taking the other side. Since the price was basically uneffected by each trade and they are privately negotiated and crossed at the opening, I don't think it is some big Fairfax investor selling out. That wouldn't be done in such a dramatic way and it would effect the price. We might find out later, if Fairfax says they closed out the total return swaps or converted some of them into actual repurchase and retirement. Or someone might ask about it at the annual meeting and Prem might know some of the story. But I do believe these trades are related to the TRS counterparties' hedging operations and not some big move by investors in the company. And I think in retrospect the blocks will stop and we will see that it was only right before and right after the ex-dividend date.

436,777 shares on the open, similar to recent opening tick block trades

Awesome. We have a bunch of excavators in my family (not me personally) - the newest is a "midi" Takeuchi which is a really nice one. The Takeuchi can dig 14 feet down! Is your 60hp considered a "mini" or a "midi?"

Saw this Q4 letter covered Fairfax. Is this investor a member of this forum? https://www.edgepointwealth.com/article/Q4-2022-EdgePoint-commentary/

now look what you went and did to RFP

https://www.aftermarketnews.com/ap-emissions-technologies-acquired-by-berkshire-hathaways-marmon-holdings/ I'm sure this is tiny but there is some hope that the higher price of money for private equity deals opens up the bolt-on acquisition deal flow a bit for Berkshire's many subsidiaries. Meryl Witmer mentioned something similar in a recent Barrons.

This morning the large opening tick trade was "only" 75,000 shares. I do generally agree with the speculation that this is related to the timing of the ex-dividend date and the various hedging counter-parties to the total return swaps. I would expect the unusual first-tick volume to disappear after the dividend.

Yeah, GEICO has been getting steadily worse. State Farm's headline number for Q3 looks to have had about a billion dollars worth of net adverse development from prior periods to hit that $4.57B number. As a shareholder of Progressive it makes me nervous - but they are a very well run company and I do think they know what they are doing. At $50 Billion it was an easy decision for me but at $78 Billion it worries me. I think I will channel my inner dealraker and do nothing.

Yeah, it's gonna stick out for a while on the Canadian price chart... Three of these things are not like the others.

Apologies, as this is getting repetitive, but there was again a huge trade (~210,000) shares on the open.

I think Progressive sees this unique environment as an amazing opportunity to grow the company. It's interesting how much of a head start GEICO gave to PGR by not really feeling like they needed to invest in Telematics for so long (reminds me of Amazon and AWS a little bit I guess). GEICO was profitable, growing, and had a lot of experience pricing business off the factors that were working well for it. But PGR now has this huge advantage with decently high uptake, something like 30% of Auto customers agree to use the Snapshot, and now they have "continuous monitoring" which is huge amounts of real time data coming in that they can learn a ton from. For instance, early telematics would tell them how many miles you were driving, how much time your car was parked in the garage not doing anything, emergency braking, etc. But now they can differentiate between the driver who is commuting to work vs the driver averaging the exact same number of miles but always on longer road trips to grandmas house. The commuter is on more congested roads and has a much higher crash frequency than the equal number of miles on a road trip to a place farther away. Current smartphone based telematics also know when you are looking at your phone while driving and other distracted driver statistics. You also have the adverse selection issue of course, which is when the crazy drivers stay away from the Insurance company that pushes telematics, etc...

One thing progressive factors in is the expected lifetime of you keeping your policy with them. They target a 96 combined ratio but they target that over the total lifetime of the customer. So they have names for each type of customer at PGR. The best are the Robinsons (like your family if you were bundling multiple types of coverage with them, owns home, owns the cars, etc), next sounds like you, the "Wrights" - because you didn't mention bundling other types of insurance with your auto but you have multiple cars and multiple drivers - and then they have "Dianes" which rent their home but have multiple insurance products and the worst (shortest life, most fickle to price changes, inconsistently insured) category are called "Sams." So because a "Sam" will likely only be around a year or so, they need to price that customer to expect the 96 combined ratio right off the batt. But for a "Wright" like your family, they can price a lot more aggressively because they are targeting that 96 combined ratio over the entirety of your (longer) expected life as a customer.

I am curious if you agreed to use PGR's "snapshot" telematics or did you opt not to?

This chorus of GEICO cancellations has been everywhere lately. There is going to be a huge reset coming out of GEICO and I have to wonder how PGR's underwriting results are going to look on all this growth. Is PGR looking at this as a customer acquisition cost and hope to retain these customers down the line when it needs to take price or is GEICO really that out of line on price. PGR reports monthly so I guess we will see it play out almost in real time.

Also saw this article this morning - https://www.retailbankerinternational.com/news/emirates-nbd-fairfax-stake-idbi/

This morning had an even larger first trade of over a quarter million FFH shares. Interesting!

SBF's lawyers must love it every time he speaks publicly before the trial. Anyway, it is a good read. https://sambf.substack.com/p/ftx-pre-mortem-overview

Thanks for the context Cigarbutt. I remember years ago Gen Re felt so highly of TransRe that they let them have the underwriting pen for a while and it surprised me at the time. But really it was a good show of respect for their underwriting culture and of course they are now part of Berkshire. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/775368/000119312516641267/d222170dex991.htm

Are other people seeing a huge trade at the open on Fairfax's Toronto listed shares (FFH) ? Very unusual. Like $150+ million CAD?

I think the bull case is that inflation is falling and the economy is very strong.

I understand and all but it has always been a pet peeve of mine that "reality" is always described as "a miss" and the guys paid to guess are not the "miss."

So this business is an MGU "Managing General Underwriter" - sort of like an insurance broker with the authority to bind coverage directly (make the underwriting decision). My understanding is that Ambridge placed business not only with Brit but also with other global reinsurers. After this deal closes, they will still have a close partnership with Brit to place business with them. But Brit would no longer participate in the brokerage commission portion of that business. No idea how this differs from an "MGA" (Managing general agent) but I think they are essentially the same.

$75.2m plus whatever the value of Brit's US operations that were contributed to the Ambridge business was. I believe they refer to this business as "BGSU" in the press release.

Thanks Viking for the RBC summary. Here is a video with the Guy Carpenter chairman David Priebe talking about the hectic 1/1 renewals https://www.theinsurertv.com/leading-voices/gcs-priebe-reinsurers-reluctance-to-provide-quotes-created-late-and-fragmented-renewal/?utm_source=listrak&utm_medium=email&utm_term=https%3a%2f%2fwww.theinsurertv.com%2fleading-voices%2fgcs-priebe-reinsurers-reluctance-to-provide-quotes-created-late-and-fragmented-renewal%2f&utm_campaign=GC’s+Priebe%3a+Reinsurers’+reluctance+to+provide+quotes+created+“late+and+fragmented”+renewal