gfp

This is the PDF of that guidance for those that want to delve in deeper: https://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-drop/n-23-07.pdf

Berkshire paid $8.2 Billion cash on 1/31/2023 for the additional 41.4% of Pilot . The original 38.6% interest was carried at $3.2 Billion on Berkshire's books and will be subject to a remeasurement gain in Q1 2023. Valuation of 100% of Pilot based on the original 38.6% carrying value of $3.2 Billion is $8.29 Billion Valuation of 100% of Pilot based on the Jan. 2023 deal is $19.81 Billion. Berkshire's 80% would make Pilot a $15.85 Billion subsidiary. ----- Another interesting bit from the 10-K is what they are doing with Alleghany Capital (the non-insurance businesses acquired with Alleghany). The larger companies, like W&W/AFCO Steel [builder of the MSGE Sphere in Las Vegas] are operated independently as part of the Manufacturing, Service and Retail group - I assume reporting to Greg Abel. The smaller manufacturing companies acquired with Alleghany "primarily became part of Marmon." - page K-48

It's hard to untangle because many of the operating subsidiaries, including BNSF, are entirely owned by the Insurance Companies - is BNSF's equity funded by float liabilities or the substantial positive net worth of National Indemnity? Same with so many other subsidiaries. It's hard to know what he is valuing when he says the Insurance group is worth $90-100 billion or whatever is being implied there. I wouldn't worry too much about the specific number.

Report is here, happy reading https://berkshirehathaway.com/2022ar/2022ar.pdf Q4 earnings release PR here: https://berkshirehathaway.com/news/feb2523.pdf " Approximately $2.6 billion was used to repurchase Berkshire shares during the fourth quarter bringing the total for the year to approximately $7.9 billion. On December 31, 2022 there were 1,459,733 Class A equivalent shares outstanding. At December 31, 2022, insurance float (the net liabilities we assume under insurance contracts) was approximately $164 billion, an increase of $17 billion since yearend 2021. The increase in float includes $14 billion related to Berkshire’s acquisition of Alleghany Corporation." February 13, 2023 share count: 1,458,235 A-share equivalents, or 2.187353 Billion B-share equivalents. ($665 Billion dollars on Friday)

https://www.sec.gov/edgar/browse/?CIK=934612

Thanks John, that is a good piece on BNSF. " Since the acquisition, BNSF has distributed $47.7 billion to Berkshire, accounting for all free cash flow plus the net proceeds of additional debt incurred since the acquisition. " Ravi takes the carrying value of Berkshire's investment in Burlington stock before the acquisition, where I usually used Berkshire's cost basis on that stock (much of which was acquired by selling puts interestingly). I think that is where I got a number slightly below Ravi's $33 Billion. Warren does private equity! Don't let those PE boys have all the fun edit: thanks pupil, I knew you could work your terminal magic on this one

It would be cool if TIKR covered BNSF since it is still an SEC reporting company but it doesn't appear to. I'm sure a Bloomberg terminal could produce similar numbers for BNSF to compare, but I know that Berkshire has been taking virtually all of BNSF's after tax earnings out as (tax free) dividends to National Indemnity for many years. I haven't don't the math recently but I assume Berkshire is close to pulling out their entire 'headline' cost basis from the BNSF acquisition in cash dividends - I think they paid something like $34 Billion all in if I remember correctly, maybe a bit less. The true cost basis is complicated by the shares used for part of the deal of course.

Personnel changes - Brian Young, CEO of Odyssey will share oversight with Andy Barnard over all of Fairfax's insurance companies: https://www.fairfax.ca/news/press-releases/press-release-details/2023/Fairfax-Financial-Holdings-Personnel-Announcements/default.aspx

So from the conference call transcript I have Prem saying this: And in 2022, our interest and dividend income went up significantly, and they're running today at $1.5 billion, and we are slowly increasing duration to 2, which means that '23, $1.5 billion, '24, $1.5 billion. That's probably more than we've ever had in the past, interest and dividend income of that amount. So it sounds like this is the plan - slowly move that average from 1.5 -> 2 years. Too slow for you guys I guess, but I have no idea why so many people are assuming that the 10yr peaked at 4.3% back in October. That was the rate priced in when "everyone" was sure we were having a recession imminently. The US 5Y peaked at 4.4% back in October and is already back to 4.03% looking like it wants to go higher. The US 3Y peaked at 4.65%, October, and it already back to 4.31%, again looking like it (the rate) is going higher. There is no reason to assume they have already missed some great opportunity to lock in low 4's for a long time. I think what they are doing is smart and they have shown that managing this part of the portfolio is one of their greatest strengths. I'm not disappointed at all. The sweet spot for where I would park my money (if I had any not invested in equities) would have a 5-handle on it. I'll bet we see the same avg. duration posture when Berkshire reports.

I'm sure Charlie would say something along the lines of "good ideas, carried to wretched excess, become bad ideas..."

Fairfax India Q4 results press release (PDF): https://s1.q4cdn.com/293822657/files/doc_news/2023/FIH-2022-Q4-Press-Release-Final.pdf

https://www.fairfax.ca/news/press-releases/press-release-details/2023/Fairfax-Financial-Holdings-Limited-Financial-Results-for-the-Year-Ended-December-31-2022/default.aspx PDF here: https://s1.q4cdn.com/579586326/files/doc_news/2023/FFH-2022-Q4-Press-Release-(revised)-Final-for-website.pdf

Interesting, I did not know they produced something like that. You would still have to print it and bind it up to make it like the old school manuals but something like the Gurufocus downloads, whatever ValueLine still offers, and a local print shop or Kinkos you could probably stay sufficiently old school.. https://www.gurufocus.com/download_stockmanual.php

From reverse engineering the math on 23 cents it looks like the author was using 895 million AAPL shares owned by Berkshire, where the current number is actually 915,560,382. So that looks like NEAM shares omitted to me. 895m is the dataroma number. CNBC portfolio tracker actually improved their game and has correct share counts now, which is nice - https://www.cnbc.com/berkshire-hathaway-portfolio/

Don't short Warren, the last time someone tried to chisel him for an eighth of a point he took over their entire company. Berkshire's check today was $210,578,888.

I agree on highly appreciated stock for sure. I have one client account that came in with some Microsoft. I've never done the work to check if it was IPO shares or a later purchase, but the cost basis is pretty low -

I don't think he gave Allegheny's portfolio over to Ted or Todd and I think the positions you mention are their positions FWIW - he even liquidated Lou Simpson's entire portfolio right before he left. He's pretty adamant that you don't hold on to someone else's stuff. Lou was practically crying selling the Nike.

So he purchased 60 million shares in Q3 2022. Prices were between 91.94 and 67.74 per share during that quarter. This 13F is as of the end of the year, when TSM closed at 74.49 per share. So it is entirely possible he had a loss on 86% of his tax lots. But I'm just speculating. He could have just thought about it further and changed his mind. If it was tax related, we should see the position grow again in Q1 2023. If he changed his mind it will likely disappear entirely.

You know Warren, he probably read that ProPublica article about all his billionaire buddies getting away with tax loss selling by swapping almost identical securities at year and and he just had to give it a try

It's kind of funny - Warren kept Allegheny's 333,856 AAPL shares and sold every single other equity in their portfolio. "Don't sell the Apple" This was the Alleghany equity portfolio directly pre-merger https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/775368/000095012322010648/xslForm13F_X01/form13fInfoTable.xml

I've always loved that song. John Legend did an interesting cover with the Roots that he put out on an album of covers. I saw them perform it live at jazz fest and it was pretty great also. we're chicken feathers all without one gut!

Bloomberg has an article highlighting the 3G principals' latest troubles - https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-02-09/americanas-crash-casts-harsh-light-on-jorge-lemann?srnd=premium https://www.reuters.com/business/retail-consumer/americanas-billionaire-shareholders-say-they-were-unaware-accounting-problems-2023-01-23/ Lojas Americanas had off balance sheet supply chain financing that was apparently hidden by previous executives. (almost $4 Billion dollars worth)

For Insurance, I subscribed to these years ago and while I don't pay anything anymore or have access to all of the articles, they still continue to send me quite a bit of content for free. If something seems particularly interesting and is behind a paywall I can usually read about it through a company press release or another media source describing the same event. https://www.insuranceinsider.com https://www.theinsurer.com https://www.es-insurer.com/ I think Ted Weschler and Warren both read furniture industry publications. I do not, but those guys have businesses in this field. https://www.homefurnishingshalloffame.com/trade-publications Warren has mentioned being a long time reader of Banking industry trade publications like this one: https://www.americanbanker.com/magazine and their general website https://www.americanbanker.com/ There are many Oil and Gas industry publications. I don't know which ones Warren and/or Greg Abel read, but I wouldn't be surprised if they read some on this list. https://blog.feedspot.com/oil_and_gas_magazines/ As an individual investor I don't think it is going to be super helpful to try to force a bunch of super specific industry chatter into your head just because the guys at Berkshire do it. They have businesses in these fields and have read these publications for decades, so a quick skim when something comes in the mail is enough. There is also a lot of value in having a network of friends and colleagues that send you articles they think you will find value in. It used to be clippings in the mail, today it is probably web links or PDFs most of the time. If Greg Abel or Bill Gates or Charlie sends Warren an article I'm sure he will at least skim it.

Berkshire can't keep additional OXY purchases a secret. The last time Berkshire added to OXY was 9/28 - https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1067983/000089924322032210/xslF345X03/doc4.xml I think UK is spot on with the TSM guess and I would expect that position to be larger than most expect when the 13F comes out. I would have guessed some Celanese shares but I'm not sure that is a Buffett choice and they can't really add much to that position without it hitting 10% so that one is probably done. Personally I hope he cools it with the Apple share purchases but Warren is always full of surprises.

Oh man, 5v crimp with exposed fasteners? I thought for sure this was a standing seam quality property lol...