gfp

but who’s gonna build the houses?

Berkshire is such a huge cash tax payer with large unrealized gains so Berkshire is very sensitive to any perceived move in the corporate income tax rate. Capital Gains tax rates apply to individuals not corporations. I suppose if Fairfax is going to hold a chunk of CLF for a while it's good to see them trade up. Automotive outlook isn't great but I guess Stelco dilutes their exposure to automotive OEMs.

Trump is the ultimate curve steepener - pressure on the Fed to lower the short end (and new Fed chair taking a dovish vow of loyalty) coupled with higher rates at longer maturities. Plus less regulation and low taxes but that is not bank-specific per se

I only use it on stock where there is a big spread. I often get fills that don't show up on the chart that are better than the stock officially trades at. Sometimes it takes a while but this morning the fills have been very good and pretty quick. A lot of the stuff I trade won't execute on the bid or the ask and if I calculate the midpoint and put in a limit sell it will just move the ask and signal the market I am trying to sell.

Using that IB mid price algorithm to sell a bit of Nelnet before earnings. Up a lot this morning.

Well I should have held on to my Nov. 15 92-strike TLT puts a few days longer but besides that - Here is a thread for some investment themes that will benefit or suffer during the new Trump administration. It is not clear to me how Trump becoming president again is positive for Tesla or DJT stock - two early pops on the news. I am tempted to fade both rallies. DJT especially seems to be a very tempting sell for the president-elect. Why is Trump's second term a positive for DJT or TSLA shares? Initial market moves are long-term interest rates higher. Oil prices down (bad for that industry). BTC up.

Yeah I will add to the above that if you are installing a new pool definitely do your research on variable speed (as mentioned by pelagic above) and other lower-power-consumption pump options because a traditional old school pool pump can add a decent amount of usage to your power bill. Same with heaters and chillers. I recommend salt water chlorinators, which should be automatic each night and you will only have to shock the pool occasionally - never have to add chlorine outside of a shock. The salt water feels nicer anyway but make sure no hardware anywhere near it can rust.

In my market the water table makes the fiberglass shells pop out of the ground so they only use them indoors like new hotel pools and condo buildings.

Thanks for taking us to Mosler / Wray / Wabuffo school Bill! We always appreciate it edit: at the risk of going further off-topic, I was just thinking of Warren Mosler last night as I was learning about McMurtry automotive's insane fan car that uses a system of fans, basically a vacuum under the car, to produce unbelievable downforce without the usual drag that aerodynamic downforce would create. Plus an insane power to weight ratio. But the motors are electric so not a fair comparison to Mosler's work. https://mcmurtry.com

When you think you're buying a bucket of money and asbestos liabilities and they throw in the Talc for free! https://cases.stretto.com/public/x242/12153/CORRESPONDENCE/1215305042350000000011.pdf https://news.bloomberglaw.com/bankruptcy-law/berkshire-affiliate-whittaker-strikes-535-million-bankruptcy-deal https://www.wsj.com/articles/berkshire-affiliates-535-million-talc-plan-faces-conflict-claims-4fc040a6

This was a good article from Andrew Bary at Barrons on the two big charges at Berkshire's insurance businesses in the quarter - https://www.barrons.com/articles/berkshire-insurance-losses-buffett-e50a8c10

My hunch is that the gains on the TRS on Fairfax's own shares are not taxable but I have asked Jenn Allen for clarification and hope she gets back to me. If profits are taxed, they would be taxed as the profit or loss flowed back and forth each quarter or each year and not realized at the end like a regular stock investment that defers tax until sold. I'll post here if I get more clarification. I don't know what tax law applies to these derivatives at Fairfax and I don't know how this type of trade would be taxed in the United States. But in the United States, an issuer's trading in its own common stock does not produce a taxable gain or loss. Does that extend to TRS on own shares? I dunno. But maybe. (and obviously Fairfax is a Canadian corporation with several US subsidiaries and the US / IRS treatment might be nothing like the Canadian)

$291.72 on 9/30

spotted on Greg Abel's office wall

As most people would have expected, Berkshire Hathaway Energy continued selling BYD stock in Q3 after the last required HK disclosure on July 16th. They appear to have ended the quarter with $825m worth of HK:1211, suggesting a further 58% of their 7/16 position was sold between 7/17 and 9/30. There was a big run-up in BYD shares around quarter end and early October so it is plausible they completed their exit - which jives with the timing of the cash repurchase of some of the Scott estate shares. Back of the envelope, 7/16 ownership was 54,200,142 HK:1211 shares and I estimate 9/30 ownership was about 22.66m shares. Wouldn't be surprised if that is zero now. BHE 10Q: https://www.sec.gov/ix?doc=/Archives/edgar/data/71180/000108131624000022/bhe-20240930.htm (edit: BNSF LLC 10Q is here for those interested: https://www.sec.gov/ix?doc=/Archives/edgar/data/934612/000093461224000015/bni-20240930.htm )

Yeah I remember that happening. It's just an overnight liability really but the balance sheet is a snapshot of a moment in time. Either way, BAC sales are probably ongoing and there is plenty of cash rolling in

Cash headlines seem to be a little bit inflated if there isn't another explanation for these $14.868 Billion in T-bills that Berkshire hadn't yet paid for on 9/30: (under liabilities) Payable for purchases of U.S. Treasury Bills 14,868

$97 Billion is the taxable gain not the tax bill due. You can use 21% to pencil in a figure. Cash paid for taxes during the first 9 months has been $17.5 Billion so Berkshire is paying some tax as it goes. There are a lot of moving parts and tax credits but cash arrives every day so I wouldn't be handicapping the cash pile for accrued expenses. Especially if repurchases remain on pause - Berkshire can stack cash awfully quickly. (plus we know the BofA sales continued after the quarter end)

BRK underwriting results were hit by Helene ($565m) and a large NICO bankruptcy court settlement (~$500m). Luckily GEICO is back in the black offsetting that. Geico Helene losses were $260m of the total Milton will take a hit in Q4: " We currently estimate that pre-tax incurred losses from Hurricane Milton could be between $1.3 billion and $1.5 billion. Losses from this event will be reflected in our fourth quarter earnings based on information available at that time."

Looks like he kept selling Apple in the quarter and maybe the round number he stopped at is actually 300m shares quite the tax bill "Our sales of equity securities produced taxable gains of $23.4 billion in the third quarter and $97.1 billion in the first nine months of 2024"

"At June 30, 2024, insurance float (the net liabilities we assume under insurance contracts) was approximately $169 billion." " At September 30, 2024, insurance float (the net liabilities we assume under insurance contracts) was approximately $174 billion, an increase of $5 billion since yearend 2023."

Press release: https://www.berkshirehathaway.com/news/nov0224.pdf 10Q: https://www.berkshirehathaway.com/qtrly/3rdqtr24.pdf Insurance float up $5 Billion since the end of Q2! Surprising

I don’t think Fairfax India does conference calls. Just the AGM

Endlessly entertaining. Explaining away the quarterly profit as being driven by investment gains, which were primarily on bonds, which were almost entirely offset by IFRS discount rate charges. But yeah, the TRS did kick in some profit so…. he is consistent!