Crip1

"The ratings of Crum & Forster reflect its role within Fairfax, its strong risk-adjusted capital levels, proven opportunistic underwriting strategy (particularly in underserved markets) and management’s commitment to reduce the group’s property catastrophe exposure to improve overall profitability. Significantly reduced legacy issues, including the commutation of most finite reinsurance contracts and the resolution in 2008 of its largest outstanding asbestos claim, also lends to the group’s profitability prospects going forward." I do not recall hearing that the 2008 asbestos claim was Crum's largest. When was this previously indicated by FFH? -Crip

Berkshire put up $300M and FFH $100M for a convert yielding 10% convertable to the common at $11.40.

Helluva start: http://www.deepcapture.com/michael-milken-60000-deaths-and-the-story-of-dendreon-chapter-1-of-15/ Checking Google Finance, they show that on the 27th, 28th and 29th of April 2009, 100 million Dendreon shares traded. Their stated float is 100.85M. Well, that seems odd... -Crip

Guys, this is a "painting with a broad brush" discussion. Some of you will likely remember Shai Dardashti from the old MSN Board. He's not 25 yet I don't believe but I would wager he navigated through the past year better than most of the folks twice his age. As well, there are plenty of young buck who got their a**es kicked. My point is best summarized by the fusion of knowledge of Martin Luther King and Ben Graham. Judge one's investing prowess not by one's age, or their gender, but by content of their logic and reasoning. -Crip

The "football" referenced above refers to American Football for those of us from outside North America. I coach both of my sons' flag football teams with the "flag" part meaning that there is not tackling, but pulling a flag hanging from the ball carrier's belt is the method with which one "tackles" an opponent. Heck, they'll use any excuse to play football in Texas. Customarily I coach defense but this one game the other coach was out and I had to take over offense. I had zero experience in doing this so it was definitely on the job training. We ran the first couple of plays and got nothing. I noticed that the other coach had his players stacking the line so, with a solid quarterback and one tall, fast, sure-handed receiver on the team, I opted to go long on third down. Touchdown...money in the bank. The next time we had the ball, the other defense was stacking the line again. First play...Long pass. Touchdown...money in the bank. Getting ready for the conversion I told the boys "Hey, here's a lesson for you. If you are in a fight and the other guy is covering his face, hit him in the gut. If they stack the line all day, we'll throw long all day." Sure enough, the next time we had the ball there were two safetys about 20 yards down field. We ran with some success but the next time they stacked the line, I called an audible for the long pass. Touchdown...money in the bank. Why the story? Fairfax is down to $248 for no earthly reason that I can see. If Mr. Market is short-sighted enough to take FFH down lower, I'm dropping deep and going downfield again. Touchdown...money in the bank. -Crip

Guys, try Dallas. I relocated down here a few years back and US$100/foot is certainly not unheard of for a middle or slightly upper-middle class area with a 30-40 minute commute. I have seen close to $80 here and there for a relitively new home which need a little work. Foreclosures are less. Dallas has some crime and the occasional tornado issues (half a dozen folks within a block of my house lost some or all of their fences a couple of days back), not to mention some pretty significant AC bills in the summer time (it is 79F/26C as I type this at midnight). Not bad if you can deal with Dallas Cowboy fans...you can even catch Hockey Night in Canada on the NHL Network! -Crip

I'll try to keep myh postings regarding the hockey, football or good whisky to a minimum. ;) -Crip

Mungerville, Would there be logic in your brother financing his home purchase, at least in part, now to lock in lower interest rates. Presumably, if he can finance 50% locking in that rate, when inflation "hits" and rates increase, his cash yield will pay for the financing costs and then some on his mortgage. I understand that the cost of housing will be lower then, but buying the home with 50% or so financing does give a bit of a hedge. -Crip

Adding to the above, FFH now will have more interest income (current munis vs. the treasuries last September) and a harder insurance market now (especially for ORH). If your point is that FFH's value has increased in the past 8 months whereas the price has not, I would tend to agree. I am tempted to buy more at these levels, even though FFH accounts for close to 30% of my investment accounts. Further price declines will, eventually, make it a no-brainer to buy. -Crip

Happy Birthday, Sanj... -Crip

"Bloomberg have covered our recent research concerning Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway poor performance versus gold in recent years. Buffett is the most successful investor in the world but his lack of diversification and almost exclusive focus on equities may bring further pain to his shareholders in the coming years." This looks to me to be propaganda with a pinch of "fear" added for good measure. Years ago there was a business channel in Chicago (WCIU, Channel 26) which would cover business news and other investing-type features for much of the day..."The Stock Market Observer" it was called I want to say. A couple times per week they had a 2-3 minute feature from a precious metals broker in the area who would talk about precious metals. I kid you not, EVERY TIME he was on the air, he would end his little speech in a bland monitone "...there may be no better time to invest in gold". Not one single event would change this assertion...ever. It was pure propaganda. Over time, Gold has underperformed in the Long Term. If someone can deftly trade in and out of it for a profit...great, more power to you. I'm not that smart. -Crip

Damn... I was just about to ask Sanj if I could advertise the new web-based business I am starting: "Crip's Mortgage and Romantic Networking Emporium". Alas, I guess I'll need to advertise elsewhere. :'( -Crip

Zarley, that was uncalled for... Sanj, I'm cool with the ads. To paraphrase, it is not the display of the screen but the content of the postings. -Crip

"Fairfax is certainly not the cheapest stock that I hold currently..." That would compel one to wonder that if FFH is not the cheapest, what is? -Crip

In retrospect, I did a little too much thumb sucking in Q1 of this year. I had previously sold out of my Suncor holding when it got pricy (not near the top, mind you, but still made a good profit) waiting to buy lower if the opportunity presented itself. In Q1 it did but I did nothing. I would be lying if I said that there is not temptation now, as I think this is a decent entry price. But I think it best to wait for the proverbial fat pitch. That was an instance where "patience, bordering on sloth" cost me. Will look to apply that lesson in the future. -Crip

for what it's worth: The national hurricane center is predicting a 50% chance of a normal season, 25% above normal, and 25% below normal... from what I can tell, they have undershot what really happened in the past 5 years. Couldn't they simply say "we ran a crapload of models and have no idea what is going to happen this year"? Of course, that would put some folks out of a gig so... -Crip

I can't recall which board member (Flying Arrow?)has the Buffett quip "Patience, bordering on sloth" on his profile, but therre is a heckuva lot of wisdom in those words. -Crip

Now that my Blackhawks have bitten the dust, that's pretty much my routine every night! ;D Crip

I agree with UhuruPeak. Everyone should keep their posts respectful (this is not the yahoo boards). Criticism strengthens our understanding but I think most of us here want to see constructive criticism that is focused on refuting ideas, not attacking individuals. This is what the old board was like when it was at its best. I respectfully suggest that all posters should re-read the Terms of Use that Sanjeev posted on the main page. http://cornerofberkshireandfairfax.ca/forum/index.php?topic=42.0 Cheers! I have nothing to add... -Crip

Prevalou, They both are. The US Real Estate market is really the sum total of hundreds of markets and sub-markets stratified by metropolitan areas, price ranges, types of housing (condo, SF Home), even down to municipalities, school districts and subdivisions. Within the over US market any one of these sub-markets can and will vary greatly. I do know that based on some reporting that the volume of transactions in California is increasing and the rate of decline is decreasing. The market is still in decline, but that decline is not as steep as it once was. This is more prevalent among homes below $500K in value (of which there are a lot more now than 2 years ago). For the past 2-3 years the rate of decline had been accelerating there and in most of the US...the fact that the decline pace has shown to be decreasing is encouraging. This is analagous to a patient who goes from critical condition to serious condition as the patient has improved, but he/she is still in serious condition. Stumpf mentioned the CA market because that is where Wells has a high level of their mortgages, so that is a greater concern to Wells. Sokol is looking nationwide and seeing areas such as the upper Midwest, Michigan and Florida, among others, which are seeing the rate of decline increase. These areas do not matter as much to Wells, but do affect the overall picture. One interesting note, according to a report a colleague pulled, the supply of homes nationwide over $750K in value is at an all time high of 40 months. This is absolutely incredible. The point of bringing this up is that looking at the overall "market" is different than looking at an individual market/sub-market. Bottom line, it still ain't pretty out there. -Crip

Long, I don't think that you will see much of a response from the folks on this board, except that posters will tend to agree with your sentiments. Investments in Technology for most businesses is not so much a matter of increasing profitability, but a matter of sheer survival. Invariably, IT projects are pitched as "productivity enhancers" or some such thing, but I would be willing to bet that the cost savings and/or profit margin enhancement projections have turned out to be overstated 99+% of the time. But firms who delay their IT investments or who do so in a less than judicious fashion will falter compared to their competition and ultimately fail. -Crip

Scotty, Residential Real Estate is a good part of my professional business. Bottom line is that you are right to wait for a motivated (which sounds better than "distressed") seller, as they will certainly make themselves known in the coming months. We are starting to see the rate of decline mitigate, meaning that the monthly decline rate is better now than a couple of months back, but it is still in sharp decline. This light at the end of the tunnel is only the first step towards a level of "normalcy" in the housing markets. -Crip

Is Bsilly0 still out there? It just occurred to me that I have not seen his name since the move to the new board. His postings had always been great, IMO, so if he did not make the move, it would be a loss for the board. -Crip

Which suggests to me that ORH is being greedy when others are fearful. -Crip

Jumped the shark? Perhaps, but that's pretty damn good. -Crip