Crip1

"Bloomberg have covered our recent research concerning Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway poor performance versus gold in recent years. Buffett is the most successful investor in the world but his lack of diversification and almost exclusive focus on equities may bring further pain to his shareholders in the coming years." This looks to me to be propaganda with a pinch of "fear" added for good measure. Years ago there was a business channel in Chicago (WCIU, Channel 26) which would cover business news and other investing-type features for much of the day..."The Stock Market Observer" it was called I want to say. A couple times per week they had a 2-3 minute feature from a precious metals broker in the area who would talk about precious metals. I kid you not, EVERY TIME he was on the air, he would end his little speech in a bland monitone "...there may be no better time to invest in gold". Not one single event would change this assertion...ever. It was pure propaganda. Over time, Gold has underperformed in the Long Term. If someone can deftly trade in and out of it for a profit...great, more power to you. I'm not that smart. -Crip

Damn... I was just about to ask Sanj if I could advertise the new web-based business I am starting: "Crip's Mortgage and Romantic Networking Emporium". Alas, I guess I'll need to advertise elsewhere. :'( -Crip

Zarley, that was uncalled for... Sanj, I'm cool with the ads. To paraphrase, it is not the display of the screen but the content of the postings. -Crip

"Fairfax is certainly not the cheapest stock that I hold currently..." That would compel one to wonder that if FFH is not the cheapest, what is? -Crip

In retrospect, I did a little too much thumb sucking in Q1 of this year. I had previously sold out of my Suncor holding when it got pricy (not near the top, mind you, but still made a good profit) waiting to buy lower if the opportunity presented itself. In Q1 it did but I did nothing. I would be lying if I said that there is not temptation now, as I think this is a decent entry price. But I think it best to wait for the proverbial fat pitch. That was an instance where "patience, bordering on sloth" cost me. Will look to apply that lesson in the future. -Crip

for what it's worth: The national hurricane center is predicting a 50% chance of a normal season, 25% above normal, and 25% below normal... from what I can tell, they have undershot what really happened in the past 5 years. Couldn't they simply say "we ran a crapload of models and have no idea what is going to happen this year"? Of course, that would put some folks out of a gig so... -Crip

I can't recall which board member (Flying Arrow?)has the Buffett quip "Patience, bordering on sloth" on his profile, but therre is a heckuva lot of wisdom in those words. -Crip

Now that my Blackhawks have bitten the dust, that's pretty much my routine every night! ;D Crip

I agree with UhuruPeak. Everyone should keep their posts respectful (this is not the yahoo boards). Criticism strengthens our understanding but I think most of us here want to see constructive criticism that is focused on refuting ideas, not attacking individuals. This is what the old board was like when it was at its best. I respectfully suggest that all posters should re-read the Terms of Use that Sanjeev posted on the main page. http://cornerofberkshireandfairfax.ca/forum/index.php?topic=42.0 Cheers! I have nothing to add... -Crip

Prevalou, They both are. The US Real Estate market is really the sum total of hundreds of markets and sub-markets stratified by metropolitan areas, price ranges, types of housing (condo, SF Home), even down to municipalities, school districts and subdivisions. Within the over US market any one of these sub-markets can and will vary greatly. I do know that based on some reporting that the volume of transactions in California is increasing and the rate of decline is decreasing. The market is still in decline, but that decline is not as steep as it once was. This is more prevalent among homes below $500K in value (of which there are a lot more now than 2 years ago). For the past 2-3 years the rate of decline had been accelerating there and in most of the US...the fact that the decline pace has shown to be decreasing is encouraging. This is analagous to a patient who goes from critical condition to serious condition as the patient has improved, but he/she is still in serious condition. Stumpf mentioned the CA market because that is where Wells has a high level of their mortgages, so that is a greater concern to Wells. Sokol is looking nationwide and seeing areas such as the upper Midwest, Michigan and Florida, among others, which are seeing the rate of decline increase. These areas do not matter as much to Wells, but do affect the overall picture. One interesting note, according to a report a colleague pulled, the supply of homes nationwide over $750K in value is at an all time high of 40 months. This is absolutely incredible. The point of bringing this up is that looking at the overall "market" is different than looking at an individual market/sub-market. Bottom line, it still ain't pretty out there. -Crip

Long, I don't think that you will see much of a response from the folks on this board, except that posters will tend to agree with your sentiments. Investments in Technology for most businesses is not so much a matter of increasing profitability, but a matter of sheer survival. Invariably, IT projects are pitched as "productivity enhancers" or some such thing, but I would be willing to bet that the cost savings and/or profit margin enhancement projections have turned out to be overstated 99+% of the time. But firms who delay their IT investments or who do so in a less than judicious fashion will falter compared to their competition and ultimately fail. -Crip

Scotty, Residential Real Estate is a good part of my professional business. Bottom line is that you are right to wait for a motivated (which sounds better than "distressed") seller, as they will certainly make themselves known in the coming months. We are starting to see the rate of decline mitigate, meaning that the monthly decline rate is better now than a couple of months back, but it is still in sharp decline. This light at the end of the tunnel is only the first step towards a level of "normalcy" in the housing markets. -Crip

Is Bsilly0 still out there? It just occurred to me that I have not seen his name since the move to the new board. His postings had always been great, IMO, so if he did not make the move, it would be a loss for the board. -Crip

Which suggests to me that ORH is being greedy when others are fearful. -Crip

Jumped the shark? Perhaps, but that's pretty damn good. -Crip

Sanj, My deepest sympathies. Thank you for a teriffic note. You have painted a picture of a remarkable woman. -Crip

I love reading just about everything Munger says. He puts more knowledge into a single sentence as most folks do in an entire speach. I'll bet you can learn something from listening to him sneaze. -Crip

Dustin, welcome aboard. Looking forward to your contributions. You live a couple hours from one of my favorite parts of the planet, Estes Park. I vacationed there annually as a kid to visit my grandparents who had retired there. A magic place to be sure. Anyhow, welcome. -Crip

Dude, Munger says more in one minute than some people say in a day, seriously. I found him to be fascinating when I saw him at the meeting last year...his commentary is raw, unfiltered and definitely spot on. The man has a self-awarded black belt in chutzpah. Granted that we all have varying tastes in just about everything but for my money, I'll gladly listen to him any time he is willing to talk. -Crip

I agree with the above. I concur with both of you, but would add that in the unlikely event that this did happen, the feature could always be deactivated if things got a little "chippy". I see the worst-case scenario in activating this as being pretty much non-existant. -Crip

Now that Warren said that, the chances of WFC getting to $9 is pretty close to nil. I got in with a smallish position at $10.50 and need to thank the gentleman at the Corner of BRK and FFH dinner (the night before the FFH meeting) who talked me out of selling. -Crip

Munger made that exact observation at last year's Berkshire AGM, right before Buffett made reference to the "small insurance company in Canada named Fairfax". As usual, Munger is spot on. -Crip

Tariq, Thanks...pinging between the three "tweets" is almost like being there...except I am laying in bed sipping on coffee! -Crip

Does any one else find it interesting that with short interest down to the levels noted above, that the Q1 2009 earnings report was not accompanied by the news headlines such as "Fairfax's Earnings Plummet", "Fairfax loses $60 Million for the quarter" or "46% revenue decline leads to $60M loss for the quarter". -Crip

Good question. The last post was 12 February so I used that date: Votes Performance 12-Feb - 30 Apr ORH 1 -27.64% ORH.A 4 +4.83% (Which I do not believe includes dividends) FFH 18 -22.03