Josh4580

Of the 16,933,000 total subscribers at quarter end, 94 percent, or 15,863,000, were paid subscribers. The other 6 percent, or 1,070,000, were free subscribers. Paid subscribers represented 98 percent of total subscribers at the end of the third quarter of 2009 and 97 percent at the end of the second quarter of 2010. That looks like a huge increase to me in free subs. The stock jumped on the number of subs added as they missed EPS and guidance numbers. Not a good sign unless they are able to convert these free subs at a decent rate.

Good thing i got in at $25.60 today. :) 13% arb spread

This is a great idea. I have proposed in the past making a subforum on investment ideas only.

KIRK is the cheapest play in that industry. However, they have had alot of insider selling since $6 a share.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-10-14/apollo-withdraws-2011-forecast-citing-40-phoenix-student-enrollment-drop.html?cmpid=yhoo Anyone been finding value in this space? Seems like an industry to avoid at all costs given the major risks.

DJSP down hard on this news. Looks like this might be a loser as I did not think the whole foreclosure process would come to an end. Also allegations of fraud at DJSP are hurting the stock. Allegations against Stern foreclosure firm heat up: http://southflorida.bizjournals.com/southflorida/stories/2010/10/11/daily14.html

I agree. I am long AAG.V at $.71

ericd...I see that you own NVEC...Whats your thinking on that stock and does it relate to this convo?

Broxy, any response to this?

Some people dont have access to buying the bonds. Also the upside seems limited versus the pre-petition equity. The post reorg equity is going to come out at 5.5X EV/2010P EBITDA while Kronos (KRO) trades for 17.5X EV/LTM EBITDA. Kronos has 33% more capacity than Tronox but Tronox has much better margins, which almost make up for the reduced capacity. Huntsman is predicting consumer demand in Ti02 to overtake capacity in a couple years and the industry should be running at full capacity for years (hasn't happened since 1984-86). The lead time to build another Ti02 plant is 3-5 years and no new ones are currently planned. Could be a cheap reorg equity. Visteon (VSTOV.OB) recently came out at $48 and the stock has already moved up to $58. Lyondell (LALLF) also looks cheap. Smurfit-Stone (SSCC) is something to look into. AbitibiBowater is another large reorg coming out soon.

CURRENT YLD PREV YLD CHANGE 28% EQ YLD 1 WK YLD 1 MO YLD 6 MO YLD 2-Year 0.51% 0.49% 0.02% 0.71% 0.48% 0.32% 0.74% 5-Year 1.23% 1.21% 0.02% 1.71% 1.22% 1.06% 1.85% 7-Year 1.82% 1.80% 0.02% 2.53% 1.80% 1.59% 2.52% 10-Year 2.53% 2.51% 0.02% 3.51% 2.53% 2.31% 3.28% 15-Year 3.51% 3.50% 0.01% 4.88% 3.50% 3.42% 3.89% 20-Year 3.81% 3.81% 0.00% 5.29% 3.80% 3.83% 4.11% 30-Year 4.11% 4.11% 0.00% 5.71% 4.11% 4.08% 4.46% So Equiv Muni Bond Yields range from .71% to 5.71%. 99% of people still consider these muni bonds risk free investments.

But how does a higher valuation from a valuation fight increase the value of those warrants?

Well it was a good thing I bought TRXAQ AND MMPIQ. At least the losses on TRXAQ are being offset by MMPIQ. Thanks Plan for putting this name forward. Tronox equity committee has withdrawn their plan and no more information has been released. The debtors plan has been approved in which TRXAQ gets warrants to purchase 5% of the company at an EV of $1.5 billion. If the equity committee's plan is actually out of play than the best thing we can hope for is that they at least settled on getting a lower warrant strike price. However, even at the current strike of $1.5B, the warrants are way in the money if we use KRO's current EV of $2.46B.

Nov-08 to June-10 Insider Buying chart (4 wk average) http://pragcap.com/insider-buying-falls-on-the-week Im trying to find longer term charts on this and up to date ones. Does anyone subscribe to an insider trading service which gives you this long term data?

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/insider-selling-outpaces-buying-over-650-1-past-week http://www.zerohedge.com/article/insider-selling-outpaces-buying-over-290-1-past-week Any opinions on this? Looks like the smart money is heading for the exits.

I thought the movie was ok, the acting was kind of weak excluding michael douglass. Also the movie had no real "feel" like the first one did.

http://www.kccllc.net/documents/0910156/0910156100922000000000027.pdf K. Should Equity Interest Holders vote on the Debtors’ proposed plan of reorganization? The Debtors have filed a separate, competing plan of reorganization. Under the Debtors’ Plan, holders of Equity Interests will receive their Pro Rata share of New Warrants if, and only if, the class containing Equity Interests vote in favor of the Debtors’ Plan. According to the Debtors’ Disclosure Statement, the value of the New Warrants to the holders of Equity Interests is between $.02 to $.10 for each New Warrant issued. If the holders of Equity Interests vote to reject the Debtors’ Plan, holders of Equity Interests will not receive the New Warrants and will receive no recovery under the Debtors’ Plan. THE EQUITY COMMITTEE RECOMMENDS THAT HOLDERS OF EQUITY INTERESTS SHOULD VOTE TO REJECT THE DEBTORS’ PLAN. The Equity Committee intends to contest the Debtors’ valuation at the hearing on confirmation of the Debtors’ Plan, if not earlier, and will argue that there should be value available for recovery by the holders of Equity Interests and that the Debtors’ Plan, as proposed, is not confirmable. If holders of Equity Interests vote to accept the Debtors’ Plan, this vote could negatively impact the Equity Committee’s ability to contest confirmation of the Debtors’ Plan, assert Tronox’s true enterprise value, and pursue alternatives for greater recovery to the holders of Equity interests. HOWEVER, IF HOLDERS OF EQUITY INTERESTS VOTE TO REJECT THE DEBTORS’ PLAN AND THE EQUITY COMMITTEE IS UNSUCCESSFUL IN ITS OBJECTION TO CONFIRMATION OF THE DEBTORS’ PLAN, THERE MAY BE NO RECOVERY TO HOLDERS OF EQUITY INTERESTS. The outcome of contested litigation proceedings cannot be predicted with certainty. if the Court adopts the valuation of Tronox in the Debtors’ Plan and/or rejects the Equity Committee’s analyses concerning valuation, the Debtors will proceed with confirmation of the Debtors’ Plan. In that event, according to the Debtors’ current valuation and projections, the holders of Equity Interests would not receive any recovery in these cases. Additionally, if the Court does not confirm the Debtors’ Plan, there is no assurance that any alternative plan or resolution will provide any recovery to holders of equity interests. In that case, holders of equity interests may receive no distribution. B. There is a risk that the Equity Committee will not be able to confirm the Plan over the objection of Classes 3, 4, 5, 6, or 7. If any of Classes 3, 4, 5, 6, or 7 vote to reject the Equity Committee Plan, the Equity Committee Plan can be confirmed only if it satisfies the “cramdown” requirements of the Bankruptcy Code. In order to satisfy this requirement, the Equity Committee must establish that the dissenting class of creditors has received payment in full before the holders of Equity Stock Interests in Class 8 may receive a recovery under the Plan. The Equity Committee believes the Equity Committee Plan satisfies all of the requirements of the Bankruptcy Code. As part of the confirmation process, however, it is likely that the Debtors, the Equity Committee and other parties, including the Ad Hoc Bondholders, will enter into litigation as to whether the Equity Committee Plan satisfies the cramdown requirements of the Bankruptcy Code. There is a risk that the Bankruptcy Court will that the Equity Committee Plan does not satisfy such requirements, which would impair the Equity Committee’s ability to confirm the Equity Committee Plan. C. B. There is a risk that the Equity Committee will not be able to secure sufficient Exit Financing to fund the Equity Committee Plan. The Equity Committee’s financial advisors have held discussions with a number of major, established, global investment banks relating to the financing of an Equity Committee plan of reorganization. Each of these investment banks has significant asset-based lending, syndicated loan and high yield financing capabilities. Pursuant to the execution of confidentiality agreements with the Debtors, these investment banks have been provided access to certain confidential information relating to, among other things, the Debtors’ financial results and projections. The Equity Committee expects to have fully committed exit financing (the “Exit Financing”) prior to Confirmation. However, there can be no guaranty that the Equity Committee will be able to secure such Exit Financing on terms and conditions acceptable to the Equity Committee and Required Plan Equity Sponsors. In that event, there would be insufficient financing to fund the Equity Committee Plan and the Plan may not be confirmable.

http://www.uscourts.gov/FederalCourts/Bankruptcy/BankruptcyBasics/Chapter11.aspx When competing plans are presented that meet the requirements for confirmation, the court must consider the preferences of the creditors and equity security holders in determining which plan to confirm. http://www.extension.umn.edu/distribution/businessmanagement/df7296.html Cram-down – Under certain circumstances, the bankruptcy court may "cram down" a plan over the objection of creditors. In order to confirm a Chapter 11 plan over the objection of a secured creditor, a holder of a secured claim must receive the entire value of the property securing the claim or the entire value of the claim, whichever is smaller. Unsecured creditors must either accept the Chapter 11 plan or the owners of the business must not receive any property under the plan on account of their prebankruptcy interest in the farming operation. Finally, a plan cannot be confirmed if the plan does not pay each claim holder as much as he would have received under a Chapter 7 liquidation unless those who receive less accept the plan. Objections to Plan – Creditors may object to the confirmation of the debtor's plan in a Chapter 11 case. Such objections will usually challenge whether the debtor has met the technical requirements of Chapter 11. However, creditors may also challenge the debtor's valuation of their collateral and the feasibility of the debtor's plan. As a result, it is usually necessary for the debtor to obtain expert testimony concerning the current value of machinery, equipment, livestock, and crops. In addition, it will be necessary for the debtor to provide his creditors with detailed financial projections which will assist the bankruptcy court in determining that the business may be successfully restructured. Competing Plans – As previously mentioned, only the debtor may submit a plan of reorganization within 120 days of the initiation of the bankruptcy case. Any interested party may file a plan thereafter. A plan, including a plan proposed by a creditor, may provide for the liquidation of some or all of the debtor's nonexempt assets. Such a liquidating plan may be proposed and approved by the court even in the case of a farmer. Confirmation – Confirmation of a plan under Chapter 11 acts as a discharge of all debts, filed or not, excluding those specified as not dischargeable elsewhere in the bankruptcy code. Upon confirmation of a plan, the debtor receives back all his property free and clear of all liens and encumbrances unless such liens are preserved by the plan. Both the debtor and the creditors are bound by the terms of the confirmed plan.

1. the rights offering is not restricted to accredited investors...anyone can participate 2. whats holding the stock down is that the ruling to approve the EC plan was delayed until monday sept 27 and the debtors POR was approved today. The debtors have a strong incentive to compromise with the equity holders if the judge approves the EC plan on monday

Fourth Amended Joint Plan and Disclosure Statement filed (9/21/10) Class: 1E Class Descriptions: Equity Interests Impaired/Unimpaired: Impaired Treatment: Holders retain their Interests. "This Class is Impaired, and the Holders are entitled to vote on the Plan. Each Holder of Allowed Interests in this Class, as of the Record Date, shall retain its Interests in the Debtor. In the alternative, the Holder may elect to have its Interests redeemed, which redemption shall occur on, or as soon as practicable after, the Effective Date. If the Holder elects to have its stock redeemed, such Holder shall receive on account of and in exchange for its Interests cash in the amount of $0.25 for each share of MMPI Existing Common Stock held by the Holder. The deadline for Holders of Interests to elect redemption of its MMPI Existing Common Stock shall be the date set as the deadline for casting Ballots to accept or reject the Plan (the “Election Deadline”). Holders who do not make a redemption election as of the Election Deadline will be deemed to have irrevocably elected to retain their Interests in the Debtor. PlanMaestro, does this effectively create a 25 cent downside for MMPIQ given that its the DEBTORS plan. Also is there still time for the other groups to up the ante for the stock?

the term isnt disclosed...the POR states they assumed a 2 year term. Also it wouldnt be $2.31B EV because Tronox has 80% of KRO capacity...so it would be $1.85B EV. So 2 year warrants to buy 5% of New Common at $1.5B EV for the old equity if the Debtors plan is accepted.

Always invert! Whats the downside??? From the Debtors Amended Plan Sept 1st: Equity Interests in Tronox Incorporated will be cancelled. For settlement purposes, Holders of Equity Interests in Tronox Incorporated shall be entitled to vote on the Plan. If the class of Equity Interests votes in favor of the Plan, Holders of Equity Interests in Tronox Incoproated shall receive their Pro Rata share of the New Warrants to be issued on the Effective Date pursuant to the terms of the New Warrant Agreement, the form of which will be included in the Plan Supplement. The New Warrants will be convertible into 5% of the New Common Stock to be issued on the Effective Date based on a total enterprise value for Reorganized Tronox of $1.5 billion. If the class of Equity Interests votes to reject the Plan, no distributions will be made on account of Equity Interests in Tronox Incorporated. They estimate this recovery to be worth $1-$4 million or $.02-$.10 per share. But this is using their EV valuation of $975 million to $1,150 million. If we use Kronos's (KRO) current EV, which is an exact if not conservative comp, of $2.31 billion, these 5% warrants will be way in the money and the recovery to the equity holders would likely be around the current stock price....do I smell limited downside? Can anyone calculate the value of these warrants using $2.31B EV and 2 year term. Please post if you do. Thanks

It sold off on news Cetus Capital sold out $183,000 worth of stock. They were part of the backstop group consisting of the following: Oak Hill Advisors Cetus Capital P. Schoenfeld Asset Management Avenue Investments Avenue International Avenue-CDP Global Opportunities Fund Avenue Special Situations Fund VI Lagrange Capital KVO Capital Ahab Capital Cheever Partners On page 14 of the EC plan the following is footnote 8: Shortly before submission of this Disclosure Statement, one of the Plan Equity Sponsors informed the Equity Committee that it was considering reducing the amount of its commitment. The Equity Committee is continuing discussions with such Plan Equity Sponsor, the other Plan Equity Sponsors and certain other potential plan equity sponsors to ensure that the entire amount of the Rights Offering is committed and intends to demonstrate the commitment in connection with the motion seeking entry of the Approval Order. This was most likely Cetus, a very small player it seems.

The last thread like this was on July 20th, 2009 located here: http://cornerofberkshireandfairfax.ca/forum/index.php?topic=870.0 My positions than: 26% GGWPQ ($4.78 to $15: up 214%) 22% MCF ($51.06 to $47.22: down 7.5%) 20% SNS ($235.4 to $330: up 40%) 15% Cash 10% SFK ($.71 to $.93: up 31%) 8% TXCOQ -100% S&P 500 up 8% since sept 30, 2009 Current Positions AAG.TO ATPG DJSP EXXI FBK.TO GYRO HAWK KIRK LALLF & WLK MBRKQ MDT MHH MMPIQ MON MYGN PRXI RVX.TO TRXAQ/TRXBQ Short SMH Short IYR

http://www.distressed-debt-investing.com/2009/06/distressed-debt-reading-list.html Check that out