Josh4580

Valuecfa, whats the symbol on that ETN?

Overall decent letter. However this guy focuses too much on book value, tangible book value, and replacement value I feel. More important are free cash flow multiples and EV/ebitda-capex multiples.

regarding the ECONOMY, ECRI has a much better track record than Buffett. Obviously this doesn't have anything to do with individual stocks.

I leaning towards this is a joke...

Plan, any update on MMPI, its down to $2.80...probably a good buying opportunity right?

bump this...great interview

Great portfolio! DCG this portfolio seems like you buy the highest quality companies in the US. How do you approach valuation on some of these stocks like CMG & DECK. What has been your sell discipline? Also are you concerned about GMCR patent expirations coming up?

Case Closed: CME Hikes Gold, Silver, Copper Margins http://www.zerohedge.com/news/case-closed-cme-hikes-gold-silver-copper-margins This was obviously leaked today which accounts for the major drop. I bought SLV options for Nov/Dec when SLV was at $30 today near the close.

The Topix has declined about 16 percent this year amid concern U.S. growth is sputtering and Europe’s debt crisis will damage the banking system, damping demand in two of Japan’s biggest export markets. The decline has cut the price of shares on the index to 0.91 times estimated book value, near the lowest since March 2009. -Bloomberg Wow the Japanese market is priced at .91X book value. Thats pretty sad. Anyone buying japanese stocks yet? What signs would one have to see to start feeling confidant in looking at these companies?

Dalio stressed how US reserve currency status will decline and that the yuan and Hong Kong dollar pegs are causing large distortions in their economies as they import our inflation and QE.

augustabound, in that Frogs Kiss blog, I like the following statement: "People mindlessly believe share buybacks are an absolute positive, but it is really just an ordinary business decision that can turn out poorly like any other." I actually see a lot of people on this board mindlessly cheer buybacks with absolutely no regard to if they are done below intrinsic value.

I like how he mentioned that FAIRX currently has $4 a share in earnings versus its current $27 unit price. A nice 15% earnings yield plus you get BB at 1% annual fee and no performance fees :)

You open a forex account and use margin to short USD/HKD. FXCM and interactive brokers let you trade it.

Well the HK dollar is pegged currently so it can only move a couple of bp here and there. I don't see much downside as any un-pegging would mean a much stronger HKD instead of a weaker one.

I really like this Ackman trade. BTW if you cant get options on the HKD than you can buy the HKD using Interactive Brokers at 30:1 margin. A 30% gain like he expects would produce a 900% gain at that leverage. Not bad but no 100:1 gain as he projects in the options. I think his idea is even better than the Japan CDS trade that Kyle Bass has on, which actually have increase from 104bp when i posted on this thread to 124bp.

Moore capital, the best book to read about how a functional gold peg would work is Gold: The Once & Future Money by Nathan Lewis Here is the Amazon link. I read this book when it came out in 2007 and have been bullish on gold since. (It was around $650/oz than) http://www.amazon.com/Gold-Future-Money-Nathan-Lewis/dp/0470047666/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1315253085&sr=8-1

The US is completely different from Japan as their debt ratios are no where near each other, their central banks operate differently, and both countries have completely different cultures and demographics. Also CDS on Japanese debt have gone from 37bp 2 years ago to 105bp today. So its been a very profitable trade for Kyle Bass and others.

Theres a good chance this could be a CDS trade. I think the most asymmetric CDS trade right now is long Japanese Government (JGB's) CDS. The 5 year contracts go for 104 bp. quote link here: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=CJGB1U5:IND This trade would also provide a large hedge position as Ackman suggests. I have not found a bull case for Japanese Debt so far. The writing is on the wall right now.

I think Mark Sellers used a full Kelly criteria allocation in his hedge fund which prompted him to invest like 95% of his assets into MCF. MCF subsequently fell 50% as natural gas went from $13/mcf to $2/mcf. This was the end of his hedge fund career. I think this highlights the dangers of a full Kelly criteria application. I think the Kelly criteria is good to think about in the abstract than in actual practice. Position sizing should not be an exact science as it is impossible to calculate the upside/downside exactly. Kelly should be used as a guide to being vaguely right in your position size than thinking some position needs to be 25.4324% of your portfolio. Example with DIMEQ (see DIMEQ thread for more info) I know that the downside is zero. I know that the upside is 3.5-4 to 1 odds at the current price of 65 cents. I believe the odds of achieving that upside is around 80% Using the Kelly formula on http://www.albionresearch.com site it says to put 74.81% of my capital into DIMEQ. Now if I were running a hedge fund I would only put 3% of my capital in DIMEQ, which using the Kelly formula means I am only betting that there is a 22-23% chance of winning. By allocating 3% into DIMEQ being pretty sure of a win (80%), means if they do win, that would be a gain of 9% for my fund, or equivalent to an average years worth of gain in the S&P 500. If I lose and am still sure my probabilities were correct, I could live with the 3% loss of capital. Thats the art of position sizing versus the science of the Kelly criteria. If I used the Kelly criteria and lost, meaning a 75% capital loss in my fund, I would quit and start opening up bars across the country.

Good article on Moynihan recent divestitures in Bloomberg "Moynihan Unravels Another Lewis Deal as BofA Exits Non-U.S. Card Business" http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-08-15/bank-of-america-to-sell-canada-credit-cards-to-td-exit-u-k-ireland-unit.html

If you add the RSUs and options I guess it could be plausible that it is his net worth

I wish I was in that club too, however Brian's rap sheet means his net worth should be much higher than $3.5mm. He was probably making $1mm-$2mm a year in salary. Straight from the Proxy Statement Prior to his appointment as Chief Executive Officer and President, he served in various leadership positions at our company: President, Consumer and Small Business Banking (August 2009 to December 2009); President, Global Banking and Global Wealth Management (January 2009 to August 2009); General Counsel (December 2008 to January 2009); President, Global Corporate and Investment Banking (October 2007 to December 2008); and President, Global Wealth and Investment Management (April 2004 to October 2007). - Prior to Bank of America’s acquisition of FleetBoston Financial Corporation, he served as Executive Vice President of FleetBoston from 1999 to April 2004, with responsibility for Brokerage and Wealth Management from 2000 and Regional Commercial Financial Services and Investment Management from May 2003.

Who believes BAC CEO Moynihan that his "net worth" is all in BAC stock when it amounts to a paltry $3.5 million. Surely it cannot be this low...

Why is Ackman & Steinberg wasting time talking to Myron Scholes http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Myron_Scholes Investment activity In 1990 Scholes decided to get involved more directly with the financial markets and he went to Salomon Brothers as a special consultant, then becoming a managing director and co-head of its fixed-income-derivative group. In 1994, Scholes joined several colleagues, including John Meriwether, the former vice-chairman and head of bond trading at Salomon Brothers, and his future Nobel Prize co-winner Robert C. Merton, and co-founded a hedge fund called Long-Term Capital Management. The fund, which started operations with $1 billion of investor capital, was extremely successful in the first years, with annualized returns of over 40%. However, following the 1997 East Asian financial crisis and the Russian Financial Crises the highly leveraged fund in 1998 lost $4.6 billion in less than four months and failed, becoming one of the most prominent examples of risk potential in the investment industry. LTCM brought more problems for Scholes in 2005, when he was implicated in the case of Long-Term Capital Holdings v. United States, being accused of having used an illegal tax shelter in order to avoid having to pay taxes on profits from company investments. It was found that Scholes and his partners were not eligible for $40 million tax savings resulting from $106 million accounting losses that had no economic substance.[3][4] Scholes is currently the chairman of Platinum Grove Asset Management, a hedge fund, which he started with former LTCM partner Chi-fu Huang. The company managed $4.5 billion and had an average annual return of 9.4 percent prior to 2007.[5] Then Platinum Grove Contingent Master fund suffered a 38 percent loss from the beginning of 2008 through October 15. The decline caused Platinum Grove to temporarily halt investor withdrawals from its largest fund.[6] He also serves on the boards[7] of various organisations, such as the Chicago Mercantile Exchange and Dimensional Fund Advisors, a pioneer of passive investing which manages $100 billion.[8] Myron Scholes this one is for YOU..

Sanjeev, I demand a full refund of my BRK Board subscription fee after reading this thread!