Josh4580

rick v, these micro and small cap nook-and-cranny opportunities are mainly discussed on sites such as VIC (Value Investor Club), Sum Zero, and value oriented blogs. Maybe we need an additional Category on Corner of Berkshire & Fairfax for these micro/small cap special situations such as the one I posted on Tronox, the one you posted on APP, or many of Harry Long's interesting small caps. I think that would help make this board more useful for us younger, more entrepreneurial investors who are looking for the multi-baggers and have the time to do the research.

Tronox Wins Court Approval of Plan Support Agreement (Update1) 2010-09-17 16:42:05.670 GMT (Updates with judge’s name in second paragraph.) By Tiffany Kary Sept. 17 (Bloomberg) -- Tronox Inc. won court approval of an agreement to pay bondholders to back an offer of new stock in a reorganized company, after an adviser to the company said delays could jeopardize Tronox’s environmental settlements. U.S. Bankruptcy Judge Allan Gropper in New York today approved Tronox’s revised agreement to pay bondholders an 8 percent fee to back a $185 million rights offering of common stock in the new company. The offer was revised from an initial $170 million after a rival group of investors offered to back a $185 million under Tronox’s plan, or one put forward by its equity holders. “We are not locking anyone into a particular plan,” Gropper said, noting that fees for the bondholders are “market rate,” and that Tronox can still consider a rival reorganization plan from its equity committee. A hearing on the terms of Tronox’s Chapter 11 plan is set for Sept. 23. Todd Snyder, managing director of Rothschild, a financial adviser to Tronox, testified today that an environmental settlement that forms the cornerstone of Tronox’s reorganization could fall apart if the company was to go with a rival offer that changes its allocations to creditors. “If the stopper is not put in the bottle, the government will do what it has always says it will do: if it sees an opportunity to get more cash value, it will try to get it,” Snyder told Gropper, adding that the U.S. had asked him about the revised agreement to back the stock offering. Pick a Horse Tronox’s interim Chief Executive Dennis L. Wanlass also testified that the company could lose the trust of its business partners if it doesn’t get the commitment of current investors and show it can exit bankruptcy quickly. “I think it’s important we pick a horse and ride it,” Wanlass said. Tronox filed an outline of a reorganization plan Sept. 1 that set aside $320 million to cover an estimated $1.4 billion to $5 billion in environmental claims, from the Environmental Protection Agency and other environmental agencies. Snyder said today that the U.S. considers the liability it has taken on by assuming responsibility for toxic sites “burdensome,” and will want as much money as it can get to deal with the unknown costs of cleanup. The bankruptcy case is Tronox Inc., 09-10156, U.S. Bankruptcy Court, Southern District of New York (Manhattan). For Related News and Information: Top legal stories: TLAW <GO> Bloomberg legal resources: BLAW <GO> --Editors: John Pickering To contact the reporter on this story: Tiffany Kary in New York at +1-718-875-1459 or tkary@bloomberg.net. To contact the editor responsible for this story: David Rovella at +1-212-617-1092 or drovella@bloomberg.net.

Tronox Equity Committee Seeks Court Approval for $185 Million Backstopped Equity Commitment Agreement http://tronoxequity.blogspot.com/2010/09/tronox-equity-committee-seeks-court.html TRXBQ up 31%, TRXAQ up 37% this morning

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/ITT-To-Enhance-Its-Global-bw-760386274.html?x=0&.v=1

manuelofideas, The Debtor's Plan basically puts the equity completely out of the money and awards them with a token of warrants. The New Warrants will be convertible into 5% of the New Common Stock to be issued on the Effective Date based on a total enterprise value for Reorganized Tronox of $1.5 billion. You can use Black-Scholes to figure out the value of these warrants using the KRO implied EV of $1.77 billion and a 2-year term. The Debtors plan puts the recovery at a meager $1-$4 million which seems to be based on their EV analysis of $975-$1150 million. I view this outcome as highly unlikely given the current market conditions and the very fair judge. Additionaly, these warrants have much more value when you use a normal EV for Tronox but I have not yet calculated them.

TRXAQ.PK & TRXBQ.PK Debtors Plan filed 9/1: http://www.kccllc.net/documents/0910156/0910156100901000000000003.pdf Equity Plan filed 9/2: http://www.kccllc.net/documents/0910156/0910156100902000000000004.pdf Titanium Dioxide Industry Overview Provided by Huntsman at Annual Investor Day (slides 96-112) http://phx.corporate-ir.net/External.File?item=UGFyZW50SUQ9NDU1ODJ8Q2hpbGRJRD0tMXxUeXBlPTM=&t=1 Tronox has an approximate 9% share of the global titanium dioxide market with an annual global production capacity of 425,000 metric tonnes. Kronos 10-K: We believe that our annual attainable production capacity for 2010 is approximately 532,000 metric tons and we currently expect we will operate at approximately 90% to 95% of our attainable capacity Classic Valuation Fight in competing plans. Debtors plan calls for a $975 million- $1150 million EV Equity Plan calls for a $1200 million- $1300 million EV Kronos has only a 25% higher production capacity than Tronox and currently trades for an EV of $2.21 billion. Both companies derive 90% of their sales from Ti02 sales. http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=KRO+Key+Statistics 80% of KRO EV of $2.21 billion gives us a comp valuation for Tronox of $1.77 billion. This shows that the Equity plan is much more realistic than the Debtors plan. MOST IMPORTANT PART OF THESIS The Judge presiding over the case is the Honorable Judge Alan Gropper. This is the same judge that presided over the General Growth Properties case in which Bill Ackman turned his $50 million investment in the pre-petition equity into over $1.5 billion! Alan Gropper is very focused on being fair across all creditor and equity classes and stresses the need to reach a consensual agreement. TRXAQ & TRXBQ both have identical rights and this issue is addressed in the company’s IR FAQ here: http://tronox.com/ir/faq_ir.htm TRXBQ currently trades at a discount at $0.38 compared to TRXAQ at $0.43 so it is a much better bargain. Most likely the Equity Committee plan will be the one accepted as it is the closest one to the correct valuation reality and given Judge Alan Groppers history of being pro pre-petition equity. Plan Valuation Ranges: $1.2 billion $1.25 billion $1.3 billion Estimated Recovery for Equity Stock: $1.39 $2.58 $3.75 per share TRXBQ is a potential 4-10 bagger is a very short time frame. Upcoming Court Calendar September 16, 2010 Hearing on approval of plan support and equity commitment agreements U.S. Bankruptcy Court for the Southern District of New York Case # 09-10156 September 23, 2010 Hearing on approval of company, equity committee disclosure statements U.S. Bankruptcy Court for the Southern District of New York Case # 09-10156 Disclosure: I own shares in TRXBQ

BofA May Owe $20 Billion in Mortgage Buybacks, Insurers Say http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-09-13/bofa-may-owe-20-billion-in-mortgage-buybacks-insurers-say.html Not good news for BAC, WFC in the near & medium term

3 lean years for OSTK? The stock has gone no where for 8 years according to the chart and its not like theres a dividend either.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704540904575451910642552160.html?mod=WSJ_hps_LEFTWhatsNews#articleTabs%3Darticle

COCO down 22%, CPLA down 18%, STRA down 16%, EDMC down 16%, ESI down 11%, DV down 7% this morning http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Ahead-of-the-Bell-Forprofit-apf-1512062551.html?x=0&.v=1 any opinions on this beaten down sector?

Citron Research (Andrew Left) has an impeccible track record finding great shorts since 2001. His one major screw up was FFH but check out the other 99% of stocks he was bearish on, most dont exist anymore. I would advise to do massive DD before getting involved with anything Andrew is bearish on, IMO Just look at VPRT today, getting smashed.

liquidation value over $8, I also bought in starting at that level and am down here at $5, but adding more. Myth we also seem to cross paths on stocks

Obama has just put a moratorium on matches played without tie-breakers due to potential work distraction btw the match has been stopped today due to darkness.

Shut it down. Im actually working now for this company RW Pressprich doing Reorg Equity Research. Pretty cool stuff although I have to take 4 Series tests before my name can go on my research.

I agree. I consider Bill Miller and Dreman contrarian investors. Alot of average retail investors mistake contrarian investing with value investing wheras I believe they are completely different.

any opinions on ATPG? down to $9 from $23 on this drilling ban. looks cheap

Ken Peak isn't an O&G explorer, he is a capital allocator. Thats why this doesn't surprise me.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Mercer-International-Inc-pz-3269682288.html?x=0&.v=1 Mercer International Inc. Reports Improved Pulp Prices and Markets Result in Stronger 2009 Fourth Quarter Results Subsequently, in January and February of 2010, producers implemented further price increases totaling $50 per ADMT bringing the European list price to $850." "During the last quarter, we received the initial C$12.9 million of the C$40.0 million of Canadian government funding for the green energy project at our Celgar mill. We currently expect to complete the Celgar green energy project and commence generating excess power sales and revenues therefrom around September 2010. When completed, and based upon the Celgar mill operating at current levels, we estimate that this project will generate between C$20.0 to C$25.0 million in additional annual power revenues without any material incremental operating costs. In addition, our Celgar mill was awarded an additional C$17.7 million of Canadian government funding for other eligible capital projects." In general, we are optimistic on the short-term outlook for pulp prices and believe that the sustainability of producer restarts and other high cost producers is possible only in a sustained higher pulp price environment."

Lets try to not give this scam artist anymore oxygen...please.

I think its protected from being downloaded by the person who posted it.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/general-growths-stock-rises-as-buyers-circle-2009-12-04?siteid=yhoof With a basis of 83 cents, Ackman is now up 1080% and has an unrealized gain of $700 million. Any opinions on GGP as it nears $10?

http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idCNN1916836620091119?rpc=44 Ackman thought it would be 7 years, I guess he was off by only one year. Not a bad estimate.

http://www.reuters.com/article/pressReleasesMolt/idUSTRE54R4O020090528 In his letter he stated his average price was 83 cents per share. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Total_return_swap

Thats because most of his holdings are in the form of total return swaps with banks.

He bought 25% of the equity at an average price of 83 cents.