Josh4580

My bad. My hat is off to plan maestro. Thank you very much. The key to understanding the risk/reward was the fact that something substantial was left for equity in all three POR's prosed by different classes. The final plan that was confirmed also preserved something nice for equity, an expected outcome all things considered. Dimeq has many variables, but they appear to have a stronger case than the Debtors. Nevertheless, what the judge who tries the case post POR confirmation decides probably will hold up on appeal. Therefore, the case is not a slam dunk for the Dimeq holders. I think it's very likely that there will be a settlement once a POR is confirmed before the Dimeq case will be tried. The WAMU BOD has major potential liability in how they dropped the ball in their duty to the DIMEQ holders, and I would be very surprised if they didn't lean on their lawyers to settle once a POR is confirmed. A settlement should be favorable to DIMEQ holders, provided that the Cpt 11 doesn't drag out for many months until the burn rate would eat into Class 12 recoveries. These are my feelings pretty much re DIMEQ. I think the expected value is much higher than 60 cents, probably around $1.50 at this point. It should be a small percentage of a portfolio however

TWA my pick was Tronox equity which went up like infinite % from 38 cents. MMPIQ was PlanMaestro's idea. Currently I like MMPID but it wasnt my idea. My favorite idea now is still DIMEQ. Nothing has really changed in the story since I posted it. I know you keep track of it more than me on the iHub board. Please update on DIMEQ over here if anything major changes.

MMPID on the way to $8, liking my average price of $1.90 right now

Parsad, this was one EPIC post. Thanks for keeping this message board going and we definitely do NOT need an ignore feature!

Kyle Bass's Hayman Capital has a minimum of $5 million but they are open to new investors.

I think Kyle Bass is spot on and was wondering if his fund is still open to new investors. Prunes you mean buy put leaps on FXY right?

I could have sworn I saw Biglari in that new music video "Like a G6". A G5 would be underneath such a money compounder as Biglari. http://new.music.yahoo.com/Far-East-Movement/videos/view/Like-a-G6--218679858

Meruelo Maddux Deal Removes Bankruptcy Exit Plan Challenger Downtown Los Angeles land owner Meruelo Maddux Properties Inc. (MMPIQ) has struck a deal to settle its differences with a lender group that had threatened to blow up the company's bankruptcy-exit plan with a rival proposal. Meruelo Maddux is now set to ask a bankruptcy judge on Monday to approve a settlement it reached with Legendary Investors Group. Under the deal, Legendary will swap its $67.8 million in Meruelo Maddux mortgage debt for ownership of seven properties. As part of the agreement, Legendary and fellow lender East West Bancorp Inc. (EWBC) will drop their rival takeover plan that would have pushed out the company's senior management, including Chief Executive Richard Meruelo. Legendary had earlier acquired all of East West's interest in Meruelo Maddux loans. The deal removes a major road block to Meruelo Maddux gaining court approval of its Chapter 11 plan, which keeps existing shareholders in control and repays creditors either through the sale of the properties or a refinancing of their debts. A plan confirmation hearing is scheduled for Thursday. However, the company's plan still faces a challenge from a second competing plan that minority shareholders put forth. That plan from Charlestown Capital Advisors LLC and Hartland Asset Management proposes to pump $30 million into Meruelo Maddux, including $23 million for the purchase of 55% of the existing shares. The company's unsecured creditors committee is backing Meruelo Maddux's plan and its proposal to settle with Legendary. The settlement will avoid the significant costs associated with the complex and litigious confirmation hearing that would have resulted if Legendary continued to pursue its plan, the creditors said in papers filed with the U.S. Bankruptcy Court in Woodland Hills, Calif. Under the settlement deal, Legendary will assume seven Meruelo Maddux properties on which it currently holds mortgage loans. The most valuable of those properties is the $29 million Sky Arc property, a 7.9-acre site where 635 residential units were planned. Also, as part of the deal, Legendary will drop its liens on three other Meruelo Maddux properties. The lender received interest in those properties as additional collateral for its loans. Meruelo Maddux sought Chapter 11 protection for dozens of its projects in March 2009 as the real-estate market spiraled downward. The company claims to be the largest nongovernment property owner in downtown Los Angeles, holding industrial, mixed-use and residential buildings in the city and elsewhere in Southern California. (Dow Jones Daily Bankruptcy Review covers news about distressed companies and those under bankruptcy protection) -By Eric Morath; Dow Jones Daily Bankruptcy Review; 202-862-9279; eric.morath@dowjones.com (END) Dow Jones NewswiresJanuary 21, 2011 15:46 ET (20:46 GMT)

Muni bond equiv yields have moved up recently. 2 year bonds currently yield 1% while 30 year bonds yield 6.81% (assumes 28% tax bracket) CURRENT YLD PREV YLD CHANGE 28% EQ YLD 1 WK YLD 1 MO YLD 6 MO YLD 2-Year 0.72% 0.78% -0.06% 1.00% 0.77% 0.70% 0.55% 5-Year 1.75% 1.78% -0.03% 2.43% 1.74% 1.48% 1.63% 7-Year 2.40% 2.47% -0.07% 3.33% 2.43% 2.09% 2.27% 10-Year 3.40% 3.43% -0.03% 4.72% 3.44% 3.07% 3.03% 15-Year 4.15% 4.17% -0.02% 5.76% 4.17% 3.97% 3.84% 20-Year 4.57% 4.57% 0.00% 6.35% 4.57% 4.22% 4.13% 30-Year 4.90% 4.90% 0.00% 6.81% 4.90% 4.55% 4.40%

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-08-26/ackman-s-pershing-square-bets-against-bp-with-credit-swaps-after-oil-spill.html “We believe it is unlikely that credit spreads will return to the pre-crises levels for many years, if ever,” Ackman wrote. Ackman has been wrong on his BP CDS play so far in the short term.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-12-09/wang-says-seaspan-seeks-more-ships-as-demand-rises-video.html

This is why Ken Peak of Contango does NOT hedge out his natural gas exposure. MCF is the lowest cost producer with no debt so they can survive the depression-like natural gas prices and benefit from spikes in the market due to black swans (banning shale gas, higher decline rates, lower shale rig counts). This seems like a much better strategy than to play in the natural gas market which is dubbed the "widow maker".

And thats even with Buffett's 6 cherry cokes a day (420 grams of sugar!!!) and junk food he eats all the time (DQ, burgers)!

http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSN1810301620101118?feedType=RSS&feedName=companyNews&rpc=43 "I hate being unpredictable, and this clearly was a disappointment for us," he told an annual meeting of shareholders. "I am sorry ... I'm really disappointed," he said. "I consider both transparency and consistency very important. We won't surprise you very often, and I apologize that we did." ______ This is why guidance is a waste of time

Picked up 100 shares at $27 on this news, now have 200 shares at $26.28

I am no MMPIQ expert but junto has laid out the description of the three plans adequetely. I have not received any paperwork yet on MMPIQ. Valuation could be significant but I have not done the necessary work yet. The confirmation hearing is Nov 29

The Tranche A Warrants have a $60 strike price, convert to 3.5% of new common (15.53mm fully diluted shares) and 7 year term The Tranche B Warrants have a $66.45 strike price, covert to 4% of new common (15.53mm fully diluted shares) and 7 year term Bond price was $129.5 this morning, which equates to a $1.22B EV-468M debt gives you $750M equity, divided buy 15.53 gets you a bond implied equity price of $48.29. The rest is just black sholes. At 5% risk free rate and 25% volatility, the A warrant is worth $14.96 and the B warrant is worth $13.07. This equates to a $.47 value. Now you could make the argument that $1.22B is not the right EV to use but remember that just because KRO is trading at 14.4x LTM EBITDA doesnt mean thats a correct valuation.

With this improved plan, the old equity is worth around $.30-$.50 per share. At a current $.65 its most likely a sell.

tnp20, nice call. The bonds are up to $129 from $92.5, for a 40% gain. I agree that this should have been the way to play this company. On the other hand, Tronox equity should be sold at $.76 for 95% gain since I posted at $.38. Downside is currently $.04-$.09 which is not worth the risk given maybe 100% more upside. Its a coin flip as of now.

Mercer International Inc. Reports Record 2010 Third Quarter Operating EBITDA of 65.5 Million Euro ($84.7 Million) and Net Income of 46.1 Million Euro ($59.6 Million) http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Mercer-International-Inc-pz-3033811305.html?x=0&.v=1 Mr. Lee concluded: "With our mills running near record levels and no scheduled downtime in the last quarter of 2010, we are well positioned to continue to take advantage of historically strong NBSK pulp prices. Additionally, we anticipate that the sales of surplus energy with the completion of the Celgar Energy Project should provide us with a new, stable revenue source unrelated to pulp pricing. Although there may be some short-term softness in NBSK pulp resulting from the start up of a previously closed NBSK mill and increased hardwood pulp capacity, we believe that steady demand in Europe and North America along with improving Chinese demand and relatively low NBSK pulp inventory levels should result in a reasonably favorable outlook for prices in the medium-term." Bodes well for Fibrek

Last 12 months FCF Q409: OPEX of $66.4M- Capex of $1.3M Q1-Q3 10: OPEX of -$31.7M - Capex of -$19M LTM FCF of $14.4M. Currently trading around 20X FCF or 5% FCF yield. Doesnt sound too cheap when you consider revenues have only increased at a 5% CAGR from 2005-LTM.

All three plans should provide sizeable upside for MMPIQ. I think it is a great long term hold. I think TRXAQ should be sold at current prices as the downside is effectively zero regardless of the upside.

SPMD down to $6.35 and DEXO down to $6.85. SPMD came out of BK at $35 in January 2010 and DEXO came out of BK at $31 in Feb 2010. These were probably terminal shorts rather than cheap stocks. Yellow pages really do have no future and these companies should have been liquidated.

Kronos raised $300mm at $40 a share in a secondary offering. The stock will now be much more liquid. http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Kronos-Worldwide-Announces-prnews-1224267697.html?x=0&.v=1 "The estimated net proceeds to the Company from the offering, before giving effect to any exercise of the underwriters' overallotment option, are expected to be $293.5 million after deducting the underwriting discount and estimated offering expenses payable by the Company. The Company intends to use the net proceeds of this offering for general corporate purposes, which may include possible acquisitions of additional TiO2 facilities that may become available in the future." Tronox bond is up to $130 from $92 when I first posted and Tronox equity is up to $0.55. No news out just people buying on valuation. I think the bond is the way to play this and use KRO as a direct comp. The plan confirmation date is Nov 17th fyi.

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/lbo-cardinal-health-imminent Really Interesting movement